Name: 為什麼住房崩盤不會發生--我希望在買房前就知道這一點 (Why The Housing Crash Is Not Happening - I Wish I Knew This Before Buying a House)
Uploaded: 2021-09-11T17:50:30.000Z
Duration: 9 min 24 s

情態副詞

Billionaire Andrew Carnegie famously said that 90%  of millionaires got their wealth by investing in  

億萬富翁安德魯-卡內基有句名言：90%的百萬富翁是通過投資獲得財富的。

轉承詞

real estate. Not a single industry produced more  millionaires than real estate because it's the  

房地產。沒有一個行業比房地產產生更多的百萬富翁，因為它是

easiest and simplest way to accumulate wealth. In the year 2000, the average home price was  

積累財富的最容易和最簡單的方法。在2000年，平均房屋價格是

$119,600. Today, in 2021, the average  house price has grown to $374,900. So,  

$119,600.今天，在2021年，平均房價已經增長到374,900美元。所以。

most people who took a 30-year-old mortgage to buy  a 300-400k dollar house are already millionaires.  

大多數人拿著30年的抵押貸款購買30-40萬的房子，已經是百萬富翁了。  

In 1980, the average house price was $47,200.  In the long, house prices do not only beat  

1980年，平均房價為47,200美元。  從長遠來看，房價不僅戰勝了

inflation but actually rise significantly. Yeah, a crash is bad, but if you are a  

通貨膨脹，但實際上顯著上升。是的，崩潰是不好的，但如果你是一個

long term investors, the crash doesn't  matter because prices will bounce back  

長線投資者，崩潰並不重要，因為價格會反彈。

right where there have been and keep rising. However, since March 2020, the housing market  

就在一直以來的地方，並持續上升。然而，自2020年3月以來，住房市場

has been going through a wild ride. Prices  have risen by almost 25 percent since then,  

一直在經歷一場瘋狂的旅程。從那時起，價格已經上漲了近25%。

which has led many people to think  that we might be in a housing bubble.  

這導致許多人認為我們可能處於房地產保麗龍中。  

And a housing bubble means that sooner or later,  it's going to burst. We have already talked  

而住房保麗龍意味著遲早會破滅。我們已經談過

in the previous videos about why the market could  possibly crash? Why are we in a bubble? And how  

在以前的視頻中，關於為什麼市場可能會崩潰？為什麼我們處在一個保麗龍中？以及如何

could it end up driving the entire economy down? However, not everyone agrees with this opinion.  

它是否會最終推動整個經濟下滑？然而，並不是所有人都同意這種觀點。  

There are plenty of respectful  people who believe that we are  

not in a bubble and the rise is natural.  Yeah, sooner or later, this boom will stop,  

不是在一個保麗龍中，上升是自然的。  是的，這種繁榮遲早會停止。

but it's not going to crash since the rise this  time is nothing like the 2008 crash. We no longer  

但它不會崩潰，因為這次的上漲與2008年的崩潰完全不同。我們不再

have predatory lending, and most mortgages  are given to responsible buyers and so on. 

有掠奪性貸款，大多數抵押貸款都給了負責任的買家，等等。

They have a point. There are many reasons  why the housing market may not crash.  

他們說得很有道理。房產市場可能不會崩潰，有很多原因。  

So let's take a look at why the housing crash  is not happening, at least this year. Because in  

是以，讓我們來看看為什麼住房崩潰不會發生，至少今年不會。因為在

order to make an objective opinion, it's important  to look at it from an opposite point of view. 

為了提出客觀的意見，重要的是要從相反的角度來看待它。

So, if you are ready, give this  video thumbs and let's dive in.

是以，如果你準備好了，請為這段視頻豎起大拇指，讓我們深入瞭解一下。

The number one reason that house prices rose so  much was because of short supply when there was  

房價上漲如此之多的首要原因是供應短缺，當時有

a huge demand. That's basic economics. In fact,  in 2020, there haven't been many houses built,  

一個巨大的需求。這就是基本的經濟學原理。事實上，在2020年，還沒有建很多房子。

and covid restrictions have only  slowed down the construction.  

和covid的限制只是減緩了建設的速度。  

And that not just because contractions  couldn't resume due to the pandemic  

而這不僅僅是因為大流行病導致宮縮無法恢復。

but entire supply chains have been  damaged. Some places entirely shut down,  

但整個供應鏈都被破壞了。一些地方完全關閉。

others couldn't get their employees back to  the factories, and so on, while the demand  

其他人無法讓他們的員工回到工廠，等等，而需求

kept rising due to super-low mortgage rates.  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR 

由於超低的抵押貸款利率而不斷上升。https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR

Just look at the data. The sharp fall in the  supply of houses hasn't even recovered to the  

看看數據就知道了。房屋供應的急劇下降甚至還沒有恢復到

pre-pandemic levels. When too much money chases  too few houses, house prices rise that much. 

大流行前的水準。當太多的錢追逐太少的房子時，房價就會上漲那麼多。

But why can't they build more houses? Because it's difficult to do that during  

但為什麼他們不能建造更多的房子？因為這是很難做到的。

the pandemic and secondly since the 2008 crash,  this industry has slowed down dramatically,  

首先是大流行病，其次是自2008年崩盤以來，這個行業已經急劇放緩。

and you can't pomp it up instantly,  especially during a global pandemic. 

而且你不能立即誇大其詞，特別是在全球大流行期間。

And that's what makes this housing boom  so different from the last crisis.  

而這正是這次住房熱潮與上次危機的不同之處。  

Take a look at the supply of houses in  2007 and 2008. At its peak, it literally  

看看2007年和2008年的房屋供應情況吧。在其高峰期，它實際上是

was twice more than it's now. That's why it  crashed. There was an oversupply of houses.  

是現在的兩倍。這就是為什麼它崩潰了。房屋供過於求。  

Sellers had to keep reducing  prices to find a buyer,  

賣家不得不不斷降價以尋找買家。

especially when they defaulted on their mortgages. Today, the situation is different. The  

特別是當他們拖欠抵押貸款的時候。今天，情況有所不同。基金會的

astronomical demand may have ended, but  even if prices drop slightly, there are  

天文數字般的需求可能已經結束，但即使價格略有下降，也有

plenty of people who are ready to buy a house.  So experts see two ways out of this situation.  

大量準備買房的人。  是以，專家們認為有兩條路可以擺脫這種情況。  

Price just stabilize and stay where they  are for the next few years or so or drop  

價格只是穩定下來，並在未來幾年左右保持原狀，或者下降。

slightly but quickly bounce back since interest  rates are still low enough to encourage demand.

小幅但迅速反彈，因為利率仍然很低，足以鼓勵需求。

In fact, the chairman of the fed hinted that  the fed is not planning to raise the rates  

事實上，美聯儲主席暗示，美聯儲不打算加息。

any time soon. And that's not unusual because  it's normal for the fed to keep the rates low  

任何時間。這並不罕見，因為美聯儲保持低利率是正常的。

for a few years when a crisis hits the economy.  After the 2008 crash, the fed kept interest rates  

幾年來，當經濟發生危機時，美聯儲就會保持利率。  在2008年的崩潰之後，美聯儲保持利率

low for the next 7 years, so it's entirely  possible that rates won't rise at least in  

在接下來的7年裡，利率將處於低位，是以完全有可能至少在未來7年內不會上升。

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS   Thirdly, there is a huge difference between a boom  

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS 第三，在繁榮的同時，也存在著巨大的差異。

and a bubble. There are periods when the economy  recovers from crises and experiences a boom,  

和保麗龍。有一些時期，經濟從危機中恢復過來，經歷了繁榮。

so asset prices rise dramatically,  especially when there is a limited  

是以，資產價格急劇上升，特別是當有一個有限的

supply of that asset in the market.  A boom doesn't necessarily mean a bubble.  

該資產在市場上的供應。  繁榮不一定意味著保麗龍。  

Theoretically, it could turn into a bubble but  that's not always the case, and judging by the  

理論上，它可能會變成一個保麗龍，但這並不總是如此，從

facts, it doesn't seem like it's a bubble now  due to the reasons we have talked about earlier. 

事實是，由於我們前面談到的原因，現在看來這不是一個保麗龍。

But you might say there are still millions  under the forbearance program. Once it ends,  

但你可能會說，仍有數百萬人在接受暫緩計劃。一旦它結束。

millions of Americans won't be able to keep up  with their mortgage payments which mean, there  

數以百萬計的美國人將無法跟上他們的抵押貸款支付，這意味著，有

will be millions of houses for sale in the market  which means, home prices will fall instantly. 

將有數以百萬計的房屋在市場上出售，這意味著，房屋價格將立即下降。

You have got the point, but  the data says otherwise.  

你已經明白了這一點，但數據顯示情況並非如此。  

At the height of the forbearance program,  9.3 million mortgages were in forbearance.  

在暫緩計劃的高峰期，有930萬抵押貸款處於暫緩狀態。  

If it wasn't for the forbearance program, the  market would have collapsed long ago. But today,  

如果不是因為寬容計劃，市場早就崩潰了。但是今天。

that number is far smaller. According  to the Mortgage Bankers Association,  

這個數字要小得多。根據抵押貸款銀行家協會的數據。

approximately 1.7 million homeowners still  remain in some type of mortgage forbearance plan.  

大約170萬房主仍然處於某種類型的抵押貸款暫停計劃中。  

Of course, if those buyers face foreclosure or  simply opt to sell rather than restart payments,  

當然，如果這些買家面臨取消抵押品贖回權，或者乾脆選擇出售而不是重新開始付款。

then it could cause the number of homes for sale  to rise. But even that is unlikely because a huge  

那麼它可能會導致待售房屋的數量增加。但即使這樣也不太可能，因為巨大的

chunk of them are there because they want to  take maximum advantage out of this program.  

他們中的大部分人在那裡是因為他們想從這個項目中獲得最大的好處。  

The mortgages that have been given after the  2008 crash are very different to pre 2008 crash.  

2008年崩盤後的抵押貸款與2008年崩盤前有很大不同。  

Banks are heavily regulated since then  and strictly provide loans only to  

從那時起，銀行受到嚴格的監管，嚴格規定只向以下人群提供貸款

those who are responsible enough not to default  and are able to keep up with their payments.  

那些負責任的人不會違約，並且能夠跟上他們的付款。  

But even if hypothetically most of them default on  their mortgages when the forbearance program ends,  

但是，即使假設他們中的大多數人在暫緩計劃結束時拖欠抵押貸款。

that would only cause a temporary 11% rise in  inventory. But low-interest rates will quickly  

這隻會導致庫存暫時上升11%。但低利率將很快

push people to buy those houses. There won't  be bidding wars as we saw thought last year  

推動人們購買這些房子。不會像我們去年看到的想法那樣出現競價大戰。

when people overpaid for over a million dollars  just to outbid everyone else, which is not super  

當人們超額支付超過一百萬美元，只是為了超越其他人，這不是超

smart, because your property most likely won't  appreciate in value in the next few years. 

聰明，因為你的財產很可能在未來幾年不會升值。

On top of that, judging by how many times the  government extended the forbearance program,  

在此基礎上，從政府延長暫緩計劃的次數來看。

it seems like it will be doing  everything possible to prevent  

homeowners from defaulting, even if that  means extending the program to 2022.

房主們不會違約，即使這意味著將該計劃延長到2022年。

The arguments against crashes sound legit, and  that's exactly what could happen. No one knows  

反對崩潰的論點聽起來是合法的，而這正是可能發生的情況。沒有人知道

the future, and every prediction has a 50/50  chance. But if we go back to 2007, 2006 or 5.  

未來，每個預測都有50/50的機會。但如果我們回到2007年、2006年或5。  

There were plenty of economics professors who gave  us multiple reasons why the housing won't crash.  

有很多經濟學教授給了我們多種理由，說明住房不會崩潰。  

I mean, Americas largest financial  companies, such as AIG and Lehman brothers,  

我的意思是，美洲最大的金融公司，如AIG和雷曼兄弟。

have bet hundreds of billions of dollars  against the housing crash since they were  

自從他們成立以來，已經對住房崩盤投注了數千億美元的資金。

so confident that it's not going to crash. I am  not saying just because they were wrong last time,  

如此自信，認為它不會崩潰。我不是說只是因為他們上次錯了。

they are wrong this time, but these opinions  should be taken with a drop of skepticism.  

他們這次是錯的，但這些意見應該以懷疑的態度對待。  

What we also should consider the  Nature of every crisis is different.  

我們還應該考慮的是，每一次危機的性質都是不同的。  

These 2 crises are not identical. Yes,  they all follow some similar patterns,  

這兩場危機並不完全相同。是的，它們都遵循一些類似的模式。

but they are not clear before the crisis, and they  happen due to different reasons. So comparing the  

但它們在危機前並不清楚，而且它們的發生是由於不同的原因。是以，比較一下

last housing crash to the next one isn't really  wise. If we knew exactly how all crises happen,  

從上一次房市崩盤到下一次房市崩盤並不是真正的明智之舉。如果我們確切地知道所有危機是如何發生的。

we would have figured how to solve them long  ago, but we only have learnt how to soften them. 

我們早就想好了如何解決這些問題，但我們只學會瞭如何軟化它們。

If you are afraid to invest in real estate,  you always have the stock market, But before  

如果你害怕投資房地產，你總是有股票市場，但之前

you start investing in the stock market, you have  to understand the basics of the stock market, you  

你開始在股市投資，你必須瞭解股市的基本知識，你必須瞭解股市的基本知識。

have to learn how to read financial statements,  analyze companies and read between the lines,  

必須學會如何閱讀財務報表，分析公司和閱讀字裡行間。

that's why I created a short, animated course  on Skillshare that will teach you everything  

這就是為什麼我在Skillshare上創建了一個簡短的動畫課程，將教會你一切

you need to learn about the stock market. The  entire course is animated from top to bottom and  

你需要學習的股票市場知識。整個課程從上到下都是動畫，而且

explained so simply that even if you know nothing  about the stock market, you will become an expert,  

解釋得如此簡單，即使你對股市一無所知，你也會成為一個專家。

the first 100 of you to use the link in the  description will get a 2 weeks of Skillshare  

你們中的前100名使用描述中的鏈接將獲得2周的技能共享。

premium and will be able to watch the course  for free. At the end of the course there will  

保費，就能免費觀看該課程。在課程結束時，將有

be an assignment that you have to completely  and I will personally check your assignment  

你必須完成一項作業，我將親自檢查你的作業。

And now give this video the thumbs  up that it deserves, and make sure to  

現在給這個視頻豎起應有的大拇指，並確保

subscribe if you haven't done that yet. Thanks for watching and until next.

如果你還沒有這樣做，請訂閱。謝謝你的觀看，直到下一次。