The human and financial cost of the war in Afghanistan has been devastating.

阿富汗戰爭的人力和財政成本是毀滅性的。

In August 2021, in a matter of weeks, the Taliban seized control of key cities in the

2021年8月，在幾個星期的時間裡，塔利班奪取了對中國主要城市的控制權。

country, causing the democratically-elected government to collapse and a mass exodus of

導致民主選舉產生的政府崩潰，大量人口外流。

citizens and expatriates.

公民和外籍人士。

After a 20-year absence from power, the Taliban had taken control of Afghanistan, a move

在離開政權20年之後，塔利班已經控制了阿富汗，此舉

that was met with outrage by most of the international community.

國際社會的大多數人對這一事件感到憤怒。

Losing that support will be costly for the Taliban, the nation's economy and its people.

失去這種支持將使塔利班、國家經濟和人民付出代價。

To make sense of what's happening, I called Natasha Turak, a correspondent in our Middle

為了弄清所發生的事情，我打電話給我們中東地區的記者娜塔莎-圖拉克。

East bureau, who's been covering the Afghanistan crisis since the news broke.

東部分局，自消息傳出以來一直在報道阿富汗危機。

Hey, Natasha.

嘿，娜塔莎。

Thanks for joining us.

謝謝你加入我們。

Thanks so much for having me, Nessa.

非常感謝你邀請我，Nessa。

How's everything?

一切都好嗎？

How's Afghanistan coverage?

阿富汗的報道如何？

It's intense.

這很緊張。

Honestly, it's nothing in comparison to what people on the ground are dealing with,

老實說，與當地人正在處理的事情相比，這不算什麼。

so I'm grateful for the opportunity.

所以我很感謝這個機會。

So what does the Taliban takeover mean for Afghanistan's economy?

那麼，塔利班的接管對阿富汗的經濟意味著什麼？

The situation we're looking at, it means that Afghanistan's formal economy is likely to crash.

我們現在看到的情況，意味著阿富汗的正規經濟可能會崩潰。

This would mean a humanitarian crisis, a refugee crisis and political instability that is far

這將意味著一場人道主義危機、難民危機和政治不穩定，而這是遠遠不夠的。

worse than what we're already seeing.

比我們已經看到的情況更糟糕。

That's for a few reasons.

這是有幾個原因的。

The key reason being that Afghanistan's economy is heavily, heavily dependent on foreign aid.

關鍵的原因是，阿富汗的經濟嚴重地、大量地依賴外國援助。

Nothing will make up for the sheer volume of funding that Western countries have been

沒有任何東西可以彌補西方國家所提供的大量資金。

providing Afghanistan for the last 20 years.

在過去的20年裡，為阿富汗提供了大量的服務。

Afghanistan is staring right at a liquidity crisis.

阿富汗正盯著一場流動性危機。

80% of the Afghan government budget was funded by the U.S. and other Western institutions.

阿富汗政府預算的80%是由美國和其他西方機構資助的。

40% of the country's GDP came from foreign aid.

該國國內生產總值的40%來自於外國援助。

Importantly, 4% of Afghanistan's GDP comes from remittances, that's money from overseas

重要的是，阿富汗國內生產總值的4%來自於匯款，也就是來自海外的錢。

workers that get sent back home.

被送回國的工人。

That's one of the highest rates in the world and those remittances have not been able to

這是世界上最高的比率之一，這些匯款沒有能夠

reach Afghans in the country who need it.

在該國需要它的阿富汗人手中。

The Biden administration froze all of Afghanistan's foreign assets that are in the U.S., which

拜登政府凍結了阿富汗在美國的所有外國資產，這

includes more than $7 billion of the Afghan Central Bank's $9 billion.

包括阿富汗中央銀行90億美元中的70多億美元。

This could leave the Taliban to impose capital controls.

這可能會讓塔利班實施資本控制。

Capital controls are regulations taken by governments or central banks to limit how

資本控制是政府或中央銀行採取的法規，以限制

much money enters and leaves a country.

很多錢進入和離開一個國家。

These include restrictions on money transfers and cash withdrawal limits at banks.

這些措施包括對匯款的限制和在銀行提取現金的限制。

Losing access to foreign currency is a big deal because Afghanistan's economy is heavily

失去獲得外匯的機會是一件大事，因為阿富汗的經濟在很大程度上是 "不穩定 "的。

import-dependent.

依賴進口。

Afghanistan's currency has fallen to record lows, the prices of basic commodities like

阿富汗的貨幣已經跌到了歷史最低點，基本商品的價格如

flour and gas spiked 50% within just two weeks of Kabul's fall to the Taliban.

麵粉和天然氣在喀布爾被塔利班攻陷的短短兩週內飆升了50%。

International organisations like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund also

世界銀行和國際貨幣基金組織等國際組織也

pulled funding from Afghanistan.

從阿富汗撤出資金。

$12 billion in foreign aid from more than 60 countries was also under scrutiny.

來自60多個國家的120億美元的對外援助也受到了審查。

Afghanistan's financial future depends heavily on whether the Taliban government gets internationally

阿富汗的財政前景在很大程度上取決於塔利班政府是否得到國際社會的支持。

recognized or not.

認可與否。

And that, in itself, will depend on what concessions it is willing to give to the international

而這本身將取決於它願意向國際社會作出什麼樣的讓步。

community, whether it be on human rights guarantees, whether it be guarantees that it will not

共同體，不管是在人權保障方面，還是在保證它不會被人利用方面。

harbour terrorist groups as it did in the 1990s.

庇護恐怖組織，就像它在1990年代那樣。

Natasha now brings us into the fallout.

娜塔莎現在把我們帶入到了落差之中。

As Afghanistan faces the risk of economic collapse, what will this mean for its citizens?

隨著阿富汗面臨經濟崩潰的風險，這對其公民意味著什麼？

Nearly 70% of Afghanistan's population is below the age of 25.

阿富汗近70%的人口年齡在25歲以下。

That means an entire generation of Afghans has grown up with not knowing Taliban rule.

這意味著整整一代阿富汗人都是在不瞭解塔利班統治的情況下長大的。

So, this is an entire generation of young Afghans, tens of millions, who grew up being

是以，這是整整一代阿富汗年輕人，數以千萬計的人，他們在成長過程中被視為

able to play soccer, being able to work in media, women being able to participate in

能夠踢足球，能夠在媒體工作，婦女能夠參加

politics, in the private sector, in art, in entrepreneurship, in international organisations,

在政治上，在私營部門，在藝術上，在企業家精神上，在國際組織上。

in international business.

在國際商業中。

The United Nations have also called women's rights in Afghanistan “on a fundamental red line.”

聯合國也稱阿富汗的婦女權利 "處於一個基本的紅線上"。

While female presence in the workforce has still not been huge, what the country risks

雖然女性在勞動力中的存在仍然不大，但國家的風險是什麼？

losing is not just the progress that's been made in the last two decades, but the future

失去的不僅僅是過去20年中取得的進步，還有未來

productive potential that would be lost if it chooses to lock half of its population

如果它選擇鎖定其一半的人口，就會失去生產潛力。

out of the economy.

淘汰的經濟。

And to take this away from all of these people, first of all, it's devastating for the people

從所有這些人身上拿走這些東西，首先，這對人們來說是毀滅性的。

who've enjoyed these rights and who've experienced these freedoms for the last 20 years.

在過去的20年裡，誰享受了這些權利，誰經歷了這些自由。

According to the World Food Bank, it needs $200M by the end of the year to aid millions

據世界糧食銀行稱，到今年年底，它需要2億美元來援助數百萬人。

of Afghans who are facing the risk of starvation.

在阿富汗，面臨飢餓風險的阿富汗人。

In a country of almost 39 million people, nearly half of the Afghan population lived

在一個擁有近3900萬人口的國家，近一半的阿富汗人口生活在

below the national poverty line in the last year.

去年在國家貧困線以下的人。

It is a perennial dilemma for countries that provide aid, when the governments of those

對於提供援助的國家來說，這是一個長期的困境，當這些國家的政府

countries are committing human rights abuses.

國家正在實施侵犯人權的行為。

Do you cut off funding to ensure that the government itself doesn't get to enjoy those funds?

你是否切斷資金以確保政府本身不能享受這些資金？

Or do you continue funding to support the people who will likely be hurt the most?

還是繼續資助支持那些可能會受到最大傷害的人？

And that is continuing to be deliberated, and I think will probably be deliberated for some time.

這一點還在繼續審議，我認為可能還會審議一段時間。

Most of their independent funding comes from criminal activity.

他們的大部分獨立資金來自於犯罪活動。

So, the Taliban, for decades, funded itself on illicit opium trade, on extortion, kidnappings,

是以，幾十年來，塔利班靠非法鴉片貿易、敲詐、綁架為自己提供資金。

there's illicit timber trade, there are some illicit mining activities going on around

有非法的木材貿易，有一些非法的採礦活動在周圍進行。

the country.

國家。

The thing is: they were able to fund themselves, they were able to fund an insurgency for many,

問題是：他們能夠資助自己，他們能夠資助許多人的叛亂。

many years.

很多年了。

Their net opium revenues ranged from between $40 million US dollars - $400 million in recent years.

近年來，他們的鴉片淨收入在4000萬美元至4億美元之間。

Do you think we will see a lot more of these activities to fund Taliban operations in Afghanistan?

你認為我們是否會看到更多的此類活動來資助塔利班在阿富汗的行動？

The funding of the Afghan government budget in the last year was $5.3 billion.

阿富汗政府去年的預算資金為53億美元。

So that's an enormous difference.

是以，這是一個巨大的差異。

And there is no way frankly, from all the analysts, the economists I've been speaking

坦率地說，從所有的分析家和經濟學家那裡，我一直在說，沒有辦法

to, that the Taliban can fill that enormous gap, with the activities it's been partaking

談到，塔利班可以通過它所參與的活動來填補這個巨大的空白。

in, in the last 20 years, to fund itself alone.

在過去的20年裡，僅僅是為了資助自己。

Afghanistan's strategic, landlocked location has also brought up discussions of its potential,

阿富汗的戰略性內陸位置也引起了對其潛力的討論。

especially for countries with geopolitical interests.

特別是對有地緣政治利益的國家。

Economists say that Afghanistan has more than $1 trillion in untapped mineral wealth.

經濟學家說，阿富汗有超過1萬億美元的未開發的礦產財富。

That's everything from copper and iron ore, and gold and gemstones, to lithium, which

這包括從銅和鐵礦石、黃金和寶石，到鋰的一切，而鋰是最重要的。

is exploding in price on the market today, because of the demand for electric vehicles.

由於對電動汽車的需求，今天市場上的價格正在爆炸性增長。

Now China is working to be a world leader in electric vehicles.

現在，中國正在努力成為電動汽車的世界領導者。

And this is something very interesting to them.

而這是他們非常感興趣的事情。

However, Afghanistan is very underdeveloped in terms of infrastructure.

然而，阿富汗在基礎設施方面非常不發達。

So it's going to take a while, I think, before Afghanistan as a country can take advantage

是以，我認為，在阿富汗作為一個國家能夠利用這一優勢之前，將需要一段時間。

of these minerals and the natural resource wealth that it has.

的這些礦物和它所擁有的自然資源財富。

It simply doesn't have the volume and the scale and the level of roads, railroads, power

它根本不具備公路、鐵路、電力的數量和規模以及水準。

lines, infrastructure in general, to move this kind of technology around the country.

線路，一般的基礎設施，以在全國範圍內移動這種技術。

Despite Afghanistan having a very strategic location for the expansion of China's Belt

儘管阿富汗對於中國的 "一帶一路 "建設具有非常重要的戰略地位，但它仍然是中國的一個重要組成部分。

& Road Initiative, the security situation on the ground has always been the number one

在 "和平與道路倡議 "中，當地的安全局勢一直是頭號問題。

issue for any investor.

對任何投資者來說都是一個問題。

The Taliban doesn't necessarily control the whole country.

塔利班不一定控制整個國家。

There are tribes, there are other militia groups, militants that are in control of other

有部落，有其他民兵組織，有控制其他地方的武裝分子。

parts of the country.

該國的部分地區。

So the Taliban, even if they tried to guarantee security for an investor like China, they

是以，塔利班，即使他們試圖為像中國這樣的投資者保證安全，他們

can't really guarantee it on the ground.

不能真正保證它在地面上。

And remember that parts of the country are still laden with IEDs, with landmines, and

請記住，該國部分地區仍然佈滿了簡易爆炸裝置和地雷，以及

the fact that you also have the potential in the coming years for renewed civil war

你也有可能在未來幾年重新爆發內戰的事實

in the country.

在全國範圍內。

In the early days of the Taliban takeover, countries like China, Russia, Iran, Qatar,

在塔利班接管的早期，中國、俄羅斯、伊朗、卡達等國家。

Turkey and Pakistan kept their embassies open in a bid for diplomatic outreach.

土耳其和巴基斯坦保持其大使館開放，以進行外交接觸。

Several among those countries are developing relationships with the Taliban, including

這些國家中的幾個國家正在與塔利班發展關係，包括

Russia and China, who likely see a strategic opportunity to wield influence in Afghanistan

俄羅斯和中國可能看到了在阿富汗發揮影響力的戰略機會

in the vacuum that the U.S. has left behind.

在美國留下的真空中。

As the country continues to grapple with the swift regime change, the Taliban takeover

在該國繼續努力應對迅速的政權更迭、塔利班接管的情況下

brings to mind its harsh rule in the past.

讓人想起它過去的嚴酷統治。

However, Afghanistan's inevitable dependence on foreign aid might prove pivotal to its future.

然而，阿富汗對外國援助的不可避免的依賴可能會被證明對其未來至關重要。

Afghans also make up one of the largest refugee populations in the world, with most settling

阿富汗人也是世界上最大的難民人口之一，其中大多數人定居於此。

in Pakistan, Iran, Germany and Turkey.

在巴基斯坦、伊朗、德國和土耳其。

As more people flee, the exodus of skilled workers may lead to a brain drain, further

隨著越來越多的人逃離，技術工人的外流可能會導致人才流失，進一步導致

hampering the country's recovery.

阻礙了國家的復甦。

The future of Afghanistan is thus far very unclear.

到目前為止，阿富汗的未來非常不明確。

The uncertainty here is that we don't know what a future Taliban government is going

這裡的不確定性是，我們不知道未來的塔利班政府會怎樣？

to look like.

來看。

The Taliban leadership say that, oh, things will be different now, they're going to

塔利班領導層說，哦，現在事情會有所不同，他們要

be a more inclusive government, they are going to allow women to work, but it's very unclear

是一個更具包容性的政府，他們將允許婦女工作，但非常不清楚

how much they will actually abide by those pledges.

他們在多大程度上會真正遵守這些承諾。

Or by how their spokespeople have talked about having a more inclusive government, having

或者通過他們的發言人如何談論擁有一個更具包容性的政府，擁有

a more tolerant government, have so far been shattered by reports of violence across the

一個更加寬容的政府，到目前為止已經被各地的暴力報道所打破。

country, reports of beatings, turning women away from places of work and education, people

毆打的報告，將婦女趕出工作和教育場所，人民

being killed while trying to protest the Taliban.

在試圖抗議塔利班的過程中被殺害。

We've talked about how much the Taliban has said that they will change, but we're

我們已經談到了塔利班說他們會改變的程度，但我們正在

also forgetting how much has the Afghan society or community, in general, they have changed as well.

也忘記了阿富汗社會或社區，總的來說，他們也發生了多大的變化。

And this might prove to be a big challenge for a Taliban government.

而這可能被證明是對塔利班政府的一個巨大挑戰。

The ball is essentially in the Taliban's court.

球本質上是在塔利班的法庭上。

But at the same time, there is leverage that Western countries hold.

但與此同時，西方國家也掌握著槓桿。

So whether the Taliban will be willing to make concessions to the West to gain some

是以，塔利班是否願意向西方做出讓步以獲得一些

of the funds that they vitally need to fund the government is yet to be seen.

他們迫切需要的資金來資助政府，這一點還有待觀察。