Those whose data has been hacked by china and those who don't know that their data has been hacked by china.

那些數據被中國黑掉的人和那些不知道他們的數據被中國黑掉的人。

That statement is actually more true than you might think.

這句話實際上比你想象的更真實。

Yeah, Yeah.

是的，是的。

Hi, I'm Michael Beckley, I'm an associate professor of political science at Tufts University and I'm the author of unrivaled why America will remain the world's sole superpower today.

大家好，我是邁克爾-貝克利，我是塔夫茨大學政治學副教授，我是《無與倫比的美國為什麼會保持當今世界唯一的超級大國》的作者。

I'll be debunking myths about the future of international relations between the United States and china.

我將揭穿關於美國和中國之間未來國際關係的神話。

Mhm.

嗯。

The United States and china are destined for war.

美國和中國註定要發生戰爭。

I think that's not true, but it's not totally false either.

我認為這不是真的，但也不是完全錯誤。

What I would say is that the United States and china are destined for rivalry.

我想說的是，美國和中國註定是敵對的。

They are the two most powerful countries in the world and have very different visions about how the world should work.

它們是世界上最強大的兩個國家，對世界應該如何運作有著非常不同的看法。

So the United States is a democracy, china is an autocracy and certainly wants to promote that vision of governance.

是以，美國是一個民主國家，中國是一個專制國家，當然希望促進這種治理的願景。

United States treats Taiwan as an independent entity in everything but name china considers it a renegade province.

美國將臺灣視為一個獨立的實體，而中國則將其視為一個叛逆的省份。

The United States wants one open global internet and china wants every country to be able to censor the internet as it sees fit.

美國希望有一個開放的全球互聯網，而中國希望每個國家都能按自己的意願審查互聯網。

Wired's february issue features excerpts from the book 2030 for which imagines an all out war between the United States and china that starts in the south china sea.

連線》2月號刊登了《2030》一書的節選，該書想象了美國和中國之間從南海開始的一場全面戰爭。

The south china sea is an area of dispute because that's one of the world's major international waterways.

南中國海是一個有爭議的地區，因為那是世界主要的國際水道之一。

Is this the most likely scenario for us china war.

這是不是我們中國戰爭最可能出現的情況。

I think it's possible.

我認為這是有可能的。

I don't think it's the most likely scenario China could very well beat the United States in a war and I think that's especially likely if the war happens over Taiwan.

我不認為這是最有可能的情況，中國很可能在戰爭中擊敗美國，我認為如果戰爭發生在臺灣，那就特別有可能。

Taiwan is only 100 miles from the Chinese mainland.

臺灣距離中國大陸只有100英里。

So China could throw its entire military at the conflict.

是以，中國可以將其整個軍隊投入到衝突中。

The Chinese military could hit targets on Taiwan without ever having to leave the Chinese mainland in the first place.

中國軍隊可以打擊臺灣的目標，而不需要首先離開中國大陸。

The US military of course is coming from thousands of miles away.

美國軍隊當然是從數千英里外趕來的。

It would have to operate mainly from two bases that are on Okinawa Japan.

它將不得不主要從日本沖繩的兩個基地運作。

Those are the only two American military bases within 500 miles of Taiwan and China actually now has missiles that could wipe those bases out in a sort of Pearl Harbor style surprise attack the United States would then have to fight from Guam Which is 1800 miles away from Taiwan.

這是臺灣500英里範圍內僅有的兩個美國軍事基地，而中國現在實際上擁有飛彈，可以在珍珠港式的突然襲擊中摧毀這些基地，然後美國將不得不從距離臺灣1800英里的關島作戰。

And that's a huge problem because American fighter aircraft run out of gas after 500 miles.

而這是一個巨大的問題，因為美國戰鬥機在500英里後就會耗盡汽油。

These are the kind of nightmare scenarios that keep American defense planners up at night and frankly for good reason.

這些都是讓美國國防規劃人員徹夜難眠的惡夢場景，坦率地說，這是有道理的。

Okay china is surveilling us data.

好吧，中國正在監視我們的數據。

Yeah, that's definitely true.

是的，這絕對是事實。

Every country spies on every other country.

每個國家都對其他國家進行間諜活動。

But what distinguishes china's espionage and surveillance?

但中國的間諜活動和監視活動有什麼區別？

It's just the sheer scale.

這只是純粹的規模。

So if you just look at 2014 alone it was revealed that china had hacked into the Office of personnel management.

是以，如果你僅僅看一下2014年，就會發現中國曾入侵人事管理辦公室。

They took the data the deepest darkest secrets from american government workers including CIA operatives during that same year.

同年，他們從包括中情局特工在內的美國政府工作人員那裡獲取了最深的黑暗祕密的數據。

They hacked into Marriott and stole the passport data and credit card information.

他們黑進了萬豪酒店，偷走了護照數據和信用卡資訊。

They also hacked into anthem and took 78 million people's health care information.

他們還黑進了國泰航空，拿走了7800萬人的醫療保健資訊。

So China has a long history of trying to gather up data on american citizens.

是以，中國試圖收集美國公民的數據由來已久。

And so it's no surprise that now there is this worry that it, once you allow an app like Tiktok onto someone's phone, it's only one update away from becoming spyware essentially.

是以，現在有這樣的擔心並不奇怪，一旦你允許像Tiktok這樣的應用程序進入某人的手機，它只需一次更新就會成為間諜軟件。

So for all these reasons there is a great worry and I think a great reason to worry the CIA is fueling anti chinese groups.

是以，由於所有這些原因，人們非常擔心，我認為有很大理由擔心中情局在為反華團體推波助瀾。

The CIA has done this in the past.

中情局過去也曾這樣做。

So during the Cold War china was conquering Tibet.

所以在冷戰期間，中國正在征服西藏。

And at the time the CIA actually funded tibetan gorillas.

而在當時，中情局實際上資助了西藏大猩猩。

They of course lost their battle.

他們當然是輸掉了戰鬥。

Since then.

從那時起。

We just don't know what the CIA has been up to.

我們只是不知道中情局一直在做什麼。

But the fact that United States also backs the government on Taiwan is further an example that chinese used to say, look, the United States is clearly meddling in our internal affairs.

但是，美國也支持臺灣政府的事實是進一步的例子，中國人用來說，看，美國顯然在干涉我們的內部事務。

I think that's certainly true.

我認為這當然是真的。

It just may not be through some of the groups that people have surmised, Some people think the CIA is funding the Falun Gong which is this religious sect within china, there's no hard evidence that that actually went through.

有些人認為中情局正在資助法輪功，這是中國的一個宗教教派，但沒有確鑿的證據表明這實際上是通過。

If the CIA is in fact funding the Falun Gong.

如果中情局確實在資助法輪功。

They're running some serious interference because members of the Falun gong have gone on to found the epic times, which now is spreading disinformation and conspiracy theories within the United States that are basically causing americans to turn on each other.

他們正在進行一些嚴重的干擾，因為法輪功成員已經繼續創立了史詩般的時代，現在正在美國境內散佈虛假資訊和陰謀論，基本上導致美國人互相反目。

I don't know where to go with that, but it doesn't make any sense.

我不知道該怎麼說，但這沒有任何意義。

The United States is the biggest threat to world peace.

美國是世界和平的最大威脅。

I think that's true, but I also think the United States has the most potential to be the biggest contributor to peace.

我認為這是事實，但我也認為美國最有潛力成為和平的最大貢獻者。

So just as the most powerful country in history, when the United States puts its weight behind something, the world gets remade.

是以，作為歷史上最強大的國家，當美國把它的力量放在某件事情的背後時，世界就會被重新塑造。

Whether for better or for worse, the United States has just in the last couple of decades toppled the number of regimes of course has military bases on pretty much every continent.

不管是好是壞，美國在過去幾十年裡推翻了許多政權，當然在幾乎每個大陸都有軍事基地。

It's the only country that can fight major wars far beyond its borders and the catastrophes are obvious.

它是唯一一個可以在其邊界以外的地方進行重大戰爭的國家，其災難性是顯而易見的。

You look at Iraq Vietnam, the list goes on.

你看看伊拉克越南，這個名單還在繼續。

I think some of the successes though are less obvious and one that I would highlight is this system of US alliances that got extended after World War Two, the United States has offered security guarantees to dozens of nations and that has helped create zones of peace around the world.

我認為一些成功並不明顯，我想強調的是美國的聯盟體系，它在第二次世界大戰後得到了擴展，美國向幾十個國家提供了安全保證，這有助於在世界各地建立和平區。

Countries that have an alliance with the United States have pretty much never been invaded or how to fight major wars.

與美國結盟的國家基本沒有被入侵過，也沒有怎麼打過大仗。

So what these security guarantees have done Is essentially allowed countries to not have to build big militaries to defend their own borders, to not have to fight for resources or market access, which was the norm for Millennia prior to 1945.

是以，這些安全保障所做的是，基本上允許各國不必建立龐大的軍隊來保衛自己的邊界，不必為資源或市場準入而戰，這在1945年之前的幾千年裡是常態。

So, well, I think it's certainly true that the United States has the power to wreck the world and wrecked the world.

所以，好吧，我認為美國有能力破壞世界，並且破壞了世界，這當然是真的。

It has in various ways.

它以各種方式做到了。

It also has the capability to really make the world much more peaceful and prosperous.

它也有能力真正使世界更加和平和繁榮。

The chinese government is about to collapse.

中國政府即將崩潰。

I think that's very unlikely China has arguably the world's strongest internal security force.

我認為這是非常不可能的，中國擁有可以說是世界上最強大的內部安全力量。

So take the american law enforcement system now add on top of that three million additional security guards, two million internet censors, 600 million surveillance cameras and something that china calls the people's armed police, which is actually essentially an army of 1.2 million troops that is directed inward at china's own people.

是以，在美國執法系統的基礎上，再加上300萬名額外的保全，200萬個互聯網審查員，6億個監控攝像頭，以及中國稱之為人民武裝警察的東西，這實際上是一支由120萬軍隊組成的軍隊，直接針對中國自己的人民。

So the bottom line is the Chinese Communist Party is not going to go down without a fight and it can fight like hell.

是以，底線是中國共產黨不會不戰而屈人之兵，它可以拼命戰鬥。

Now, the only way you would actually get a collapse of the Chinese Communist Party is if there is a split at the elite level, that's what happened prior to the Tiananmen Square massacre, where you have hardliners versus reformists and the party almost collapsed.

現在，你實際上會得到中國共產黨崩潰的唯一途徑是如果在精英層面出現分裂，這就是天安門廣場大屠殺之前發生的情況，你有強硬派對改革派，黨幾乎崩潰了。

But I think that the chinese leader is essentially learned the lessons of Tiananmen.

但我認為，中國領導人基本上吸取了天安門事件的教訓。

They realized that they either stick together or they're going to hang separately.

他們意識到，他們要麼粘在一起，要麼就會分開掛。

And no one has taken this lesson further to heart than she Jinping, who has purged thousands of his political rivals.

沒有人比她更重視這一教訓，她已經清除了數千名政治對手。

He stacked the highest decks of the chinese government with people loyal to him.

他在中國政府的最高層堆滿了對他忠誠的人。

He's even written himself into the chinese constitution.

他甚至把自己寫進了中國的憲法。

So while she Jinping certainly has created many enemies by crushing a lot of powerful chinese families.

是以，儘管她通過粉碎許多有權勢的中國家族，肯定創造了許多敵人。

He his cult of personality and his iron grip on power will make him extremely hard to dislodge anytime in the foreseeable future.

他的個人崇拜和對權力的鐵腕控制將使他在可預見的未來隨時都很難被趕走。

Us china relations have worsened under the trump administration.

在特朗普政府下，美中關係惡化。

I think that's basically true.

我認為這基本上是事實。

Donald trump is the first U.

唐納德-特朗普是第一個美國人。

S.

S.

President to really wage full spectrum competition with china.

總統要真正與中國展開全方位的競爭。

He presided over a huge boost in US military power directed into East Asia.

他主持了美國軍事力量在東亞地區的巨大提升。

He made the most aggressive use of tariffs against china that we've seen since really the Second World War.

他對中國採取了自第二次世界大戰以來我們所看到的最積極的關稅措施。

It's a very aggressive upfront policy at the same time though, I don't think trump himself was the sole architect of this shift in U.

雖然這是一個非常積極的前期政策，但我不認為特朗普本人是美國這一轉變的唯一設計師。

S.

S.

China relations.

中國的關係。

I think part of it was actually reaction to china's own rise in international aggression.

我認為它的一部分實際上是對中國自己在國際侵略中崛起的反應。

China has just become a much more active, muscular and authoritarian country over the last decade.

在過去的十年裡，中國剛剛成為一個更加活躍、肌肉發達和獨裁的國家。

So I actually think U.

是以，我實際上認為U。

S.

S.

China relations are going to continue on the same trend during the biden administration.

在拜登政府期間，中國關係將繼續保持同樣的趨勢。

The one thing that democrats and republicans seem to be able to agree on is that the United States needs to get tough with china.

民主黨人和共和黨人似乎能夠達成共識的一件事是，美國需要對中國採取強硬態度。

The one major difference is that biden is all about multilateralism.

一個主要的區別是，拜登是關於多邊主義的。

He's all about allies and so he's trying to build an alliance of democracies.

他很重視盟友，所以他試圖建立一個民主國家聯盟。

So it's more of a difference of tactics.

是以，這更像是一種戰術上的差異。

But the overarching strategy of what the United States is doing with china is largely going to remain the same.

但美國對中國所做的總體戰略在很大程度上將保持不變。

Okay, China is a superstar.

好吧，中國是一個超級明星。

Yeah, not yet.

是的，還沒有。

When analysts look at what makes countries powerful and what is really driven the rise and fall of great powers over the centuries, it's a few basic components.

當分析家們審視是什麼讓國家變得強大，是什麼真正推動了幾個世紀以來大國的興衰，它是幾個基本組成部分。

One of course is wealth.

當然，一個是財富。

You need just lots of money to buy various forms of influence and invest in technological innovation.

你只需要很多錢來購買各種形式的影響並投資於技術創新。

You also need a big powerful military in case things get tough and you need to rectify the situation through force and you also need some kind of global narrative.

你還需要一支強大的軍隊，以防事情變得棘手，你需要通過武力來糾正局面，你還需要某種全球敘事。

You need some kind of story to tell or some kind of ideology that can help win over allies and partners to your cause.

你需要某種故事或某種意識形態，以幫助贏得盟友和合作夥伴對你的事業的支持。

So for all these reasons, china is an extremely important country but it still lags pretty far behind the United States, which has 3 to 4 times china's wealth, 5-10 times its military power projection capability and nearly 70 allies.

是以，由於所有這些原因，中國是一個極其重要的國家，但它仍然遠遠落後於美國，美國的財富是中國的3至4倍，軍事力量投射能力是中國的5至10倍，還有近70個盟友。

Whereas China's only ally is North Korea.

而中國的唯一盟友是北韓。

The US dollar is the world's reserve currency.

美元是世界上的儲備貨幣。

It's used in 90% of international financial transactions.

它被用於90%的國際金融交易。

China's currency is only used in about 2% and of course America's soft power, its global appeal has taken a pretty big beating over the last few years but it still ranks above China.

中國的貨幣只在大約2%的地方使用，當然，美國的軟實力，它的全球吸引力在過去幾年中受到了相當大的打擊，但它仍然排在中國之上。

So with gaps this big in money and muscle and allies and partners, you can't really consider china a superpower in the same league as the United States at least.

是以，在資金、力量、盟友和夥伴方面有這麼大的差距，你不能真的認為中國是一個超級大國，至少與美國處於同一級別。

Not yet.

還沒有。

Mhm china is the world's largest economy.

中國是世界上最大的經濟體。

That's actually true china's rise has actually been quite steady over the years.

這實際上是真的，中國的崛起在這些年裡實際上是相當穩定的。

It's gone from a nation that was mostly dominated by peasant farmers to one where there is a burgeoning middle class today.

它已經從一個主要由農民主宰的國家變成了今天中產階級蓬勃發展的國家。

If you adjust for the fact that things like food and clothes and haircuts are cheaper in china than in the United States, then china does in fact have the largest gross domestic product.

如果你考慮到像食物、衣服和理髮這樣的東西在中國比在美國更便宜的事實，那麼中國事實上確實擁有最大的國內生產總值。

Or GDP.

或GDP。

Having a big GDP is not the same thing as being really wealthy or having a strong economy.

擁有龐大的GDP並不等同於真正的富裕或擁有強大的經濟。

GDP just measures spending and it would be sort of like measuring the wealth of a family if you just looked at their credit card statement.

GDP只是衡量支出，如果你只看一個家庭的信用卡賬單，就有點像衡量他們的財富。

Obviously just because you spend a lot of money doesn't mean that you're necessarily rich, china does have a lot of mouths to feed 1.4 billion people and no country has run up as much debt as china over the past decade.

顯然，你花了很多錢並不意味著你一定很富有，中國確實有很多人要養活14億人，而且在過去十年裡，沒有一個國家像中國一樣負債累累。

So while china certainly does have the largest economy that's not the wealthiest country in the world, The world is divided between two large economic blocs.

是以，雖然中國確實擁有最大的經濟體，但它並不是世界上最富有的國家，世界被分為兩個大的經濟集團。

The U.

幽會。

S.

S.

And chinese economies are intertwined in so many different ways.

而中國的經濟在許多不同的方面交織在一起。

The big debate is over whether these two countries are starting to diverge whether there's this new cold war between the two countries where each country will develop its own technology and those technologies won't be compatible.

最大的爭論在於這兩個國家是否開始分化，兩國之間是否存在這種新的冷戰，每個國家都將發展自己的技術，而這些技術將不兼容。

I actually think there is going to be a fair amount of what is called decoupling between the two economies.

實際上，我認為兩個經濟體之間會有相當多的所謂脫鉤現象。

It's going to take decades most likely.

這很可能需要幾十年的時間。

But I think there's been so much bad blood stored up by the recent trade conflicts that both countries now are looking for ways to if not entirely disentangled at least try to walk back some of their economic entanglements will china become a superpower?

但我認為，最近的貿易衝突積攢了太多的惡氣，以至於這兩個國家現在都在尋找方法，即使不能完全脫離關係，至少也要努力迴避一些經濟糾葛，中國會成為一個超級大國嗎？

It's certainly possible but china will have to overcome two main hurdles.

這當然是可能的，但中國將必須克服兩個主要障礙。

The first is that its economic engine is starting to slow down.

首先是其經濟引擎開始放緩。

So China's economic growth rates have dropped by 50% over the last decade and I think even worse productivity has declined by 10%.

所以中國的經濟增長率在過去十年中下降了50%，我認為更糟糕的是生產力下降了10%。

So China is having to spend more and more to produce less and less.

所以中國不得不花越來越多的錢來生產越來越少的東西。

At the same time, China's debt has ballooned eightfold.

與此同時，中國的債務已經膨脹了8倍。

Just over the last decade, no country has racked up this much debt this fast in peacetime.

就在過去的十年裡，沒有一個國家在和平時期以這麼快的速度累積了這麼多的債務。

The second obstacle is a geopolitical backlash.

第二個障礙是地緣政治的反擊。

So according to china's own government sources, anti china sentiment around the globe hasn't been this high since the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

是以，根據中國自己的政府消息來源，自1989年天安門廣場大屠殺以來，全球的反華情緒還沒有這麼高。

Some of this is Covid, but frankly a lot of it is a response to china's aggressive, so called wolf warrior diplomacy.

其中一些是科維德，但坦率地說，很多是對中國咄咄逼人、所謂的狼性外交的迴應。

The fear for china is that it may be confronting a tightening geopolitical noose at the same time that its economy is slowing.

中國的擔心是，在經濟放緩的同時，它可能面臨著地緣政治的緊箍咒。

And if both of those trends continue, china's superpower ambitions could be crushed.

如果這兩種趨勢繼續下去，中國的超級大國野心可能會被粉碎。

The bottom line is that for the next decade at least US china competition is going to likely continue across the full spectrum of areas of world politics.

底線是，至少在未來十年，美中競爭可能會在世界政治的各個領域繼續下去。

The good news is that these two countries do need each other at the end of the day, they need each other to solve big transnational problems like climate change, to regulate the global economy.

好消息是，這兩個國家最後確實需要對方，他們需要對方來解決像氣候變化這樣的跨國大問題，來規範全球經濟。

So with the hope is that cooler heads will prevail and the two countries will in fact cooperate, but it's certainly not guaranteed.

是以，人們希望冷靜的頭腦會佔上風，兩國事實上會合作，但這當然不是保證。