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  • When you think about the massive wealth of countries in the Gulf,

    當你想到海灣地區國家的巨大財富。

  • the first thing that comes to mind is oil.

    首先想到的是石油。

  • Oil is about so much more than just what's coming out of the ground.

    石油的意義遠遠超出了從地下流出的東西。

  • Oil is about money, it's about politics and it's about power.

    石油是關於金錢的,是關於政治的,是關於權力的。

  • As oil producers, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain

    作為石油生產國,沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合酋長國、卡達、阿曼、科威特和巴林

  • are some of the wealthiest countries in the world.

    是世界上最富有的國家之一。

  • Together they make up the Gulf Cooperation Council, or the GCC.

    它們共同組成了海灣合作委員會,即海合會。

  • So, how did this influential organization come together, and is its collective wealth

    那麼,這個有影響力的組織是如何形成的,其集體財富是否

  • at stake as the world attempts to move away from fossil fuels?

    在世界試圖擺脫化石燃料的過程中,這一點至關重要?

  • The Gulf Cooperation Council came together in 1981, and since then has arguably become

    海灣合作委員會於1981年成立,從那時起,可以說已成為

  • one of the most influential trade blocs in the world.

    是世界上最有影響力的貿易集團之一。

  • But I'd like to know what's next for the six monarchies in the GCC, and there's no

    但我想知道海合會的六個君主國的下一步是什麼,而且沒有

  • one better to unravel its influence than international correspondent Hadley Gamble.

    有一個人比國際記者哈德利-甘布爾更適合解開其影響。

  • She's based in Abu Dhabi and has covered the Middle East for a decade.

    她駐紮在阿布扎比,報道中東地區已有十年之久。

  • Hi Hadley, thank you so much for joining us.

    嗨,哈德利,非常感謝你加入我們。

  • Thank you so much for having me.

    非常感謝你邀請我。

  • So, you've reported from countless breaking news and exclusive events in the region.

    所以,你已經報道了該地區無數的突發新聞和獨家事件。

  • There's nothing I love more than to get out of the studio and be a part of the story.

    我最喜歡的事情莫過於走出工作室,成為故事的一部分。

  • Right now, Hadley, I want to go back to the start.

    現在,哈德利,我想回到起點。

  • Why was the GCC set up in the first place?

    當初為什麼要成立海合會?

  • It's kind of an interesting story.

    這是個有趣的故事。

  • The Gulf Cooperation Council was set up back in 1981,

    海灣合作委員會早在1981年就成立了。

  • the year I was born.

    在我出生的那一年。

  • Originally, it was expected to be a way that they could collaborate on policy,

    最初,它被期望成為一種他們可以在政策上進行合作的方式。

  • whether it's economic policy or even defense policy.

    無論是經濟政策,甚至是國防政策。

  • In the past, they hadn't really done that.

    在過去,他們並沒有真正做到這一點。

  • They had been working with variousat timescolonial actors.

    他們一直在與各種--有時是--殖民地的演員合作。

  • The United Kingdom obviously was very heavily involved in the region,

    英國顯然在該地區的參與程度非常高。

  • the United States as well.

    美國也是如此。

  • When you talk about the GCC, it was really pretty much a sleepy kind of organization

    當你談到海合會時,它確實是一個相當沉睡的組織。

  • for several years.

    幾年來。

  • First time that I saw it really taking shape in terms of big policy decisions

    我第一次看到它在大的政策決定方面真正形成了。

  • was back in 2011.

    是在2011年。

  • Of course, that was the Arab Spring.

    當然,那是 "阿拉伯之春"。

  • During the Arab Spring, of course, there was a lot of trouble in Egypt, a lot of fear,

    當然,在阿拉伯之春期間,埃及有很多麻煩,有很多恐懼。

  • frankly about the overthrow of monarchies, of autocracies.

    坦率地說,推翻君主制、專制制度。

  • Hadley's referring to the spring of 2011, when the Arab world was rocked by pro-democracy

    哈德利指的是2011年春天,當時阿拉伯世界因支持民主而受到震動。

  • uprisings in countries like Tunisia, Libya, Egypt,

    在突尼西亞、利比亞、埃及等國家發生的起義。

  • and GCC member states Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

    以及海合會成員國沙特阿拉伯和巴林。

  • While the movement galvanized the council, it also drove a wedge between Qatar and the

    雖然這一運動激發了委員會的熱情,但它也在卡達和中國之間製造了一個楔子。

  • it also drove a wedge between Qatar

    這也使卡達與美國之間的關係變得更加緊張。

  • and the other five GCC member states.

    和其他五個海灣合作委員會成員國。

  • You have to remember that all of these guys, technically, are related.

    你必須記住,所有這些人,從技術上講,都有關係。

  • There's still a familial tie from all the Gulf Arab countries.

    所有海灣阿拉伯國家仍然有一種家族式的聯繫。

  • It's an issue of respect and tribalism as well.

    這也是一個尊重和部落主義的問題。

  • So even though, they're not all pulling the same weight when it comes to the money

    是以,即使在談到錢的時候,他們並不是都在拉著同樣的重量。

  • and when it comes to the oil reserves,

    而當涉及到石油儲備時。

  • there's a real history there that people don't forget.

    那裡有一段真實的歷史,人們不會忘記。

  • So, informally, the GCC is like, the world's biggest family affair.

    是以,非正式地講,海合會就像是,世界上最大的家庭事務。

  • In a way, yes totally.

    在某種程度上,完全是的。

  • GCC countries, they have been some of the fastest growing economies in the world.

    海灣合作委員會國家,它們一直是世界上增長最快的經濟體之一。

  • Yes.

    是的。

  • Is that purely down to oil?

    這純粹是由於石油造成的嗎?

  • Absolutely.

    絕對的。

  • I mean, these are still all hydrocarbon economies, with the exception of Qatar, and of course,

    我的意思是,這些仍然都是碳氫化合物經濟體,除了卡達,當然還有。

  • that's natural gas.

    這就是天然氣。

  • The GCC, notably Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, contributes around 30% of global oil

    海灣合作委員會,特別是沙特阿拉伯、阿聯酋和科威特,對全球石油的貢獻約為30%。

  • production.

    生產。

  • How have the GCC countries been affected since the oil price shocks, in 2014, 2015,

    自2014年、2015年的油價震盪以來,海灣合作委員會國家受到了怎樣的影響。

  • and the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia in 2020,

    以及2020年沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯之間的石油價格戰。

  • brought upon by the pandemic-induced slowdown?

    由大流行病引起的經濟放緩所帶來的問題?

  • We're talking about countries that have serious sovereign wealth funds,

    我們談論的是那些擁有嚴肅的主權財富基金的國家。

  • and they've had to really dip into those.

    而他們不得不真正深入瞭解這些。

  • But part of it as well is they've had to go to the international community

    但其中一部分原因是他們不得不去找國際社會。

  • and gone to international debt markets.

    並進入了國際債務市場。

  • They've been willing to take on debt in order to go forward.

    他們一直願意承擔債務,以便向前邁進。

  • In 2020, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman

    2020年,沙特阿拉伯、阿聯酋、卡達、巴林和阿曼

  • issued $42.1 billion in international debt,

    發行了421億美元的國際債務。

  • a record for the Gulf states and a 25% increase from 2019.

    是海灣國家的記錄,比2019年增長了25%。

  • But things might not be perking up.

    但事情可能並沒有好轉。

  • In 2020, a report by the International Monetary Fund

    在2020年,國際貨幣基金組織的一份報告

  • projected that the GCC's financial wealth

    預計,海合會的金融財富

  • of $2 trillion could be depleted by 2034.

    到2034年,2萬億美元的資金可能被耗盡。

  • Peak oil is something that we discuss so often on CNBC,

    石油峰值是我們在CNBC上經常討論的東西。

  • the prospect of it, when it will happen, if it will happen, of course it will.

    它的前景,它何時發生,如果它將發生,當然會發生。

  • It's been interesting to see the two narratives coming from the UAE and Saudi Arabia,

    看到來自阿聯酋和沙特阿拉伯的兩種說法很有意思。

  • for example, how swiftly that they are trying to move to more carbon neutral policies.

    例如,他們是如何迅速地試圖轉向更多的碳中和政策。

  • They know that they have to do that to be sustainable in a global environment where

    他們知道,他們必須這樣做,才能在一個全球環境中持續發展。

  • there's going to be a lot of pressure to go green.

    將會有很大的壓力,要走向綠色。

  • A report by the International Energy Agency

    國際能源署的一份報告

  • in May 2021 noted that CO2 emissions from

    在2021年5月的報告中指出

  • the energy sector and industries have increased by 60% since 1992.

    自1992年以來,能源部門和工業的投資增加了60%。

  • In fact, the report, which detailed the road map

    事實上,該報告詳細介紹了路線圖

  • to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050,

    到2050年實現淨零碳排放。

  • was openly mocked by several OPEC leaders.

    被幾個歐佩克領導人公開嘲笑。

  • The Saudi energy minister, for example, publicly expressed his doubts.

    例如,沙特能源部長公開表達了他的疑慮。

  • So I think it's more of their disbelief that we're going to not need the basic,

    所以我認為這更多是他們不相信我們會不需要基本的東西。

  • traditional sources of energy in the short to medium term.

    在中短期內,傳統的能源來源。

  • Countries like India and China cannot exist without them,

    像印度和中國這樣的國家沒有他們就無法存在。

  • and if they are the engines of global growth,

    以及它們是否是全球增長的引擎。

  • then the rest of the world will feel it if they aren't fed.

    那麼,如果他們不被餵養,世界上的其他人就會感受到這一點。

  • With the transition to green energy in the last few years, especially since it's evolved

    隨著過去幾年向綠色能源的過渡,特別是它的發展變化

  • into a race against time not just for all of these Gulf Arab countries,

    變成了一場與時間賽跑的比賽,不僅僅是對所有這些海灣阿拉伯國家。

  • but also in between these Gulf Arab countries as well.

    但在這些海灣阿拉伯國家之間也是如此。

  • Perhaps the Qatar Development Bank CEO,

    也許是卡達發展銀行的首席執行官。

  • he said it best when he asked:

    他問的時候說的最好。

  • What would we be able to produce if oil and gas did not exist?”

    "如果石油和天然氣不存在,我們能生產什麼?"

  • I think that when he's saying we have to have something beyond oil to offer the world,

    我認為,當他說我們必須有超越石油的東西來提供給世界。

  • he's speaking for every Gulf Arab economy, and it's not something that they don't know,

    他是在為每一個海灣阿拉伯經濟體說話,而且這不是他們不知道的事情。

  • whether it be the volatility in oil prices, when they crashed out and went under 40.

    無論是石油價格的波動,當他們崩潰了,並在40歲以下。

  • Or even during the global pandemic when they hit almost zero, I mean this was a situation

    甚至在全球大流行期間,當他們幾乎達到零時,我的意思是這是一個情況

  • where we had negative prices for the very first time, and it was one which nobody could

    在這裡,我們第一次出現了負的價格,而且是一個沒有人能夠

  • have predicted but certainly galvanised this push to diversification.

    這也是我所預料到的,但肯定激發了對多樣化的推動。

  • They're working very hard though on these diversification strategies.

    雖然他們在這些多元化戰略上非常努力。

  • They've not been unaware that the world is changing, but when you have, you know,

    他們並非沒有意識到世界正在發生變化,但當你有了這種意識,你就知道了。

  • 80 plus years of oil wealth basically dictating how your economies are running, it's a fast

    80多年的石油財富基本上決定了你們的經濟運行方式,這是一個快速的過程。

  • and solid moving freight train

    和堅實的移動貨運列車

  • that you've literally got to put the brakes on and then reverse.

    你實際上必須踩下剎車,然後再倒車。

  • What Hadley is emphasising here is that economic diversification from oil is inevitable.

    哈德利在這裡強調的是,經濟從石油中多樣化是不可避免的。

  • And each Gulf country has charted a different course to getting there.

    而每個海灣國家都制定了不同的路線來實現這一目標。

  • For example, there's Saudi Vision 2030 – a strategic framework

    例如,有沙特2030年願景--一個戰略框架

  • to reduce the state's dependency on oil.

    以減少該州對石油的依賴性。

  • The vision 2030 instituted a couple years ago, with the ascension of the Crown Prince

    幾年前,隨著王儲的登基,制定了2030年的願景。

  • Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia really changed the game in a sense because it brought

    沙特阿拉伯的穆罕默德-本-薩勒曼在某種意義上真正改變了遊戲,因為它帶來了

  • the opportunity for an IPO of Saudi Aramco, something that nobody thought was going to

    沙特阿美石油公司有機會進行首次公開募股,這是沒有人認為會發生的事情。

  • be possible and which they managed to pull off.

    他們成功地實現了這一目標。

  • The listing of Saudi Aramco on the Saudi stock exchange valued the world's biggest oil

    沙特石油公司在沙特證券交易所的上市,使這個世界上最大的石油公司的價值得到了提升。

  • and gas company at $1.7 trillion and raised $25.6 billion at the time.

    和天然氣公司的1.7萬億美元,並在當時籌集了256億美元。

  • That amount fell short of the $100 billion investment Aramco executives were hoping to

    這一數額沒有達到阿美石油公司高管們希望的1000億美元的投資。

  • count on to help diversify the economy away from oil.

    倚賴它來幫助經濟從石油中多樣化。

  • For decades, education beyond religious education was not emphasised in countries

    幾十年來,各國都沒有強調宗教教育以外的教育。

  • like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

    像沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋。

  • That has changed over the last 20 years or so.

    這在過去20年左右的時間裡已經發生了變化。

  • Education is something that they've got to put a lot of emphasis on in the coming

    教育是他們在未來必須大力強調的事情。

  • years to get that group of technocrats and entrepreneurs, frankly, that they really need.

    多年來,坦率地說,為了獲得他們真正需要的那批技術專家和企業家。

  • They've got to go very, very fast, because what they are attempting to do is to get people

    他們必須走得非常、非常快,因為他們試圖做的是讓人們

  • off the public dime in terms of government jobs and have them creating their own businesses,

    在政府工作方面,他們不需要花錢,並讓他們創建自己的企業。

  • working in private companies.

    在私營公司工作。

  • For example, tourism inside Saudi Arabia,

    例如,沙特阿拉伯境內的旅遊業。

  • that's one of the big things that they're investing in.

    這是他們正在投資的大事情之一。

  • They want to create jobs by doing this, they want to open up the country by doing this,

    他們想通過這樣做來創造就業機會,他們想通過這樣做來開放國家。

  • something that you've never seen prior to Mohammed bin Salman and King Salman.

    在穆罕默德-本-薩勒曼和薩勒曼國王之前,你從未見過這樣的東西。

  • How quickly that's changed, how fundamentally the Crown Prince's policies have changed

    這種變化有多快,王儲的政策有多大的根本性變化

  • things for young people, most of the population is under the age of 35.

    年輕人的事情,大多數人的年齡都在35歲以下。

  • It's an incredibly ambitious project, because it's not just about the economics of it,

    這是一個令人難以置信的雄心勃勃的項目,因為它不僅僅是關於它的經濟。

  • it's also about the culture of it, it's about the social aspect of it as well,

    這也是關於它的文化,它也是關於它的社會方面。

  • allowing women to drive, they want more women in the workforce,

    允許婦女開車,他們希望有更多的婦女加入勞動力隊伍。

  • they know that they need that in order to be economically sustainable.

    他們知道,為了在經濟上可持續,他們需要這樣做。

  • There has been a big shift in the UAE, in their priority, towards hydrogen.

    在阿聯酋,在他們的優先權方面,已經有一個很大的轉變,即轉向氫氣。

  • Yeah, green hydrogen.

    是的,綠色氫氣。

  • I mean, this is something that we've been talking about quite a bit as well

    我的意思是,這也是我們一直在談論的事情,也是相當多的事情

  • over the last few years.

    在過去的幾年中。

  • This is something that the country takes very seriously, and that they're taking very

    這是國家非常重視的事情,而且他們正在非常認真地對待。

  • seriously to the international community.

    對國際社會來說,這是一個嚴肅的問題。

  • In Dubai, a green hydrogen facility was piloted in 2021,

    在迪拜,一個綠色氫氣設施在2021年進行了試點。

  • to produce eco-friendly hydrogen using renewable energy.

    利用可再生能源生產生態友好型氫氣。

  • It's the first of its kind in the Middle East and North Africa.

    這是在中東和北非的第一個此類項目。

  • Will economic diversification mean that the development initiatives within the GCC,

    經濟多樣化是否意味著海合會內部的發展舉措。

  • do they need to evolve?

    他們是否需要進化?

  • Will it lead to the very notion of the GCC itself becoming obsolete?

    這是否會導致海合會本身的概念變得過時?

  • They know that when they all stand together, they're stronger than individually.

    他們知道,當他們都站在一起時,他們比單個人更強大。

  • So for the GCC countries, if we're thinking about whether or not they'll continue within

    是以,對於海灣合作委員會國家,如果我們考慮他們是否會繼續在

  • the GCC construct, I would say that, absolutely they will because they're still going to

    我想說的是,他們絕對會,因為他們仍然會

  • have conflicts within GCC countries that they need to resolve.

    海灣合作委員會國家內部有需要解決的衝突。

  • The member countries have disagreed on a number of affairs,

    成員國在一些事務上存在分歧。

  • including foreign policy and competing economic visions.

    包括外交政策和相互競爭的經濟願景。

  • They're all family, but you know, there's always disagreements within the family.

    他們都是一家人,但你知道,家庭內部總是有分歧。

  • The Omanis are incredibly pragmatic; they have been the ones who in the past have done

    阿曼人是非常務實的;他們在過去一直是做

  • the secret negotiations with Iran.

    與伊朗的祕密談判。

  • The conversations that Oman was secretly, quietly leading

    阿曼祕密地、悄悄地上司的對話

  • between the United States and Iran.

    美國和伊朗之間的關係。

  • Now, did the Gulf Arab countries generally take very kindly to that, well of course no.

    現在,海灣阿拉伯國家是否普遍對這一點非常友好,當然沒有。

  • Another notable conflict was the Qatar crisis that lasted three years, ending in January

    另一個值得注意的衝突是持續了三年的卡達危機,於1月結束。

  • ending in January 2021.

    於2021年1月結束。

  • GCC members Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain, along with Egypt, severed diplomatic relations

    海合會成員沙特阿拉伯、阿聯酋和巴林以及埃及斷絕了外交關係

  • with Qatar, citing the latter's alleged support for terrorism, which Qatar denies.

    報道稱,卡達被指支持恐怖主義,但卡達否認了這一說法。

  • Airspace and maritime borders were also closed between Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

    沙特阿拉伯和卡達之間的空域和海上邊界也被關閉。

  • At the end of the day, what we'll see in post, that Qatar rift, for example, is that

    在一天結束的時候,我們會看到在後,比如說卡達的那個裂縫,就是

  • Saudi Arabia and Qatar, seemingly just jumped right back in the pool together.

    沙特阿拉伯和卡達,似乎就這樣一起跳回了游泳池。

  • Nobody wants to be left on the wrong side of history.

    沒有人願意被留在歷史的錯誤一邊。

  • They want to focus on what they know best, which is money, making money, how to do that,

    他們想專注於他們最熟悉的事情,那就是錢,賺錢,如何做到這一點。

  • bringing big business into the region.

    將大企業引入該地區。

  • And part of that obviously, is looking to new partners, and really push a narrative

    而其中的一部分,顯然是尋找新的合作伙伴,並真正推動一種說法

  • for it, which is you know, open for business.

    為它,這是你知道的,為企業開放。

  • This is a part of the world that will continue to be incredibly important, even as we diversify

    這是世界上將繼續無比重要的一部分,即使是在我們多樣化的時候。

  • away from carbon, hydrocarbons.

    遠離碳,碳氫化合物。

  • There was a little chant that the Middle East bureau in CNBC had.

    CNBC的中東局有一個小口號。

  • With Martin Conroy, you got to make sure he sees this if I do it.

    對於馬丁-康羅伊,如果我這樣做,你必須確保他看到這個。

  • Gotta diversify! Gotta diversify!” Like a musical.

    "必須多樣化!必須多樣化!"就像一部音樂劇。

  • We came up with that just to keep encouraging ourselves.

    我們想出這個辦法只是為了不斷鼓勵自己。

  • That was the narrative over the last 10 years I would say, gotta diversify.

    這就是過去10年的敘述,我想說的是,必須多樣化。

When you think about the massive wealth of countries in the Gulf,

當你想到海灣地區國家的巨大財富。

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海灣國家沒有石油的未來是什麼樣子的 | CNBC解析 (What a future without oil looks like for the Gulf countries | CNBC Explains)

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    Summer 發佈於 2021 年 09 月 02 日
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