the first thing that comes to mind is oil.

首先想到的是石油。

Oil is about so much more than just what's coming out of the ground.

石油的意義遠遠超出了從地下流出的東西。

Oil is about money, it's about politics and it's about power.

石油是關於金錢的，是關於政治的，是關於權力的。

As oil producers, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain

作為石油生產國，沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合酋長國、卡達、阿曼、科威特和巴林

are some of the wealthiest countries in the world.

是世界上最富有的國家之一。

Together they make up the Gulf Cooperation Council, or the GCC.

它們共同組成了海灣合作委員會，即海合會。

So, how did this influential organization come together, and is its collective wealth

那麼，這個有影響力的組織是如何形成的，其集體財富是否

at stake as the world attempts to move away from fossil fuels?

在世界試圖擺脫化石燃料的過程中，這一點至關重要？

The Gulf Cooperation Council came together in 1981, and since then has arguably become

海灣合作委員會於1981年成立，從那時起，可以說已成為

one of the most influential trade blocs in the world.

是世界上最有影響力的貿易集團之一。

But I'd like to know what's next for the six monarchies in the GCC, and there's no

但我想知道海合會的六個君主國的下一步是什麼，而且沒有

one better to unravel its influence than international correspondent Hadley Gamble.

有一個人比國際記者哈德利-甘布爾更適合解開其影響。

She's based in Abu Dhabi and has covered the Middle East for a decade.

她駐紮在阿布扎比，報道中東地區已有十年之久。

Hi Hadley, thank you so much for joining us.

嗨，哈德利，非常感謝你加入我們。

Thank you so much for having me.

非常感謝你邀請我。

So, you've reported from countless breaking news and exclusive events in the region.

所以，你已經報道了該地區無數的突發新聞和獨家事件。

There's nothing I love more than to get out of the studio and be a part of the story.

我最喜歡的事情莫過於走出工作室，成為故事的一部分。

Right now, Hadley, I want to go back to the start.

現在，哈德利，我想回到起點。

Why was the GCC set up in the first place?

當初為什麼要成立海合會？

It's kind of an interesting story.

這是個有趣的故事。

The Gulf Cooperation Council was set up back in 1981,

海灣合作委員會早在1981年就成立了。

the year I was born.

在我出生的那一年。

Originally, it was expected to be a way that they could collaborate on policy,

最初，它被期望成為一種他們可以在政策上進行合作的方式。

whether it's economic policy or even defense policy.

無論是經濟政策，甚至是國防政策。

In the past, they hadn't really done that.

在過去，他們並沒有真正做到這一點。

They had been working with various – at times – colonial actors.

他們一直在與各種--有時是--殖民地的演員合作。

The United Kingdom obviously was very heavily involved in the region,

英國顯然在該地區的參與程度非常高。

the United States as well.

美國也是如此。

When you talk about the GCC, it was really pretty much a sleepy kind of organization

當你談到海合會時，它確實是一個相當沉睡的組織。

for several years.

幾年來。

First time that I saw it really taking shape in terms of big policy decisions

我第一次看到它在大的政策決定方面真正形成了。

was back in 2011.

是在2011年。

Of course, that was the Arab Spring.

當然，那是 "阿拉伯之春"。

During the Arab Spring, of course, there was a lot of trouble in Egypt, a lot of fear,

當然，在阿拉伯之春期間，埃及有很多麻煩，有很多恐懼。

frankly about the overthrow of monarchies, of autocracies.

坦率地說，推翻君主制、專制制度。

Hadley's referring to the spring of 2011, when the Arab world was rocked by pro-democracy

哈德利指的是2011年春天，當時阿拉伯世界因支持民主而受到震動。

uprisings in countries like Tunisia, Libya, Egypt,

在突尼西亞、利比亞、埃及等國家發生的起義。

and GCC member states Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

以及海合會成員國沙特阿拉伯和巴林。

While the movement galvanized the council, it also drove a wedge between Qatar and the

雖然這一運動激發了委員會的熱情，但它也在卡達和中國之間製造了一個楔子。

it also drove a wedge between Qatar

這也使卡達與美國之間的關係變得更加緊張。

and the other five GCC member states.

和其他五個海灣合作委員會成員國。

You have to remember that all of these guys, technically, are related.

你必須記住，所有這些人，從技術上講，都有關係。

There's still a familial tie from all the Gulf Arab countries.

所有海灣阿拉伯國家仍然有一種家族式的聯繫。

It's an issue of respect and tribalism as well.

這也是一個尊重和部落主義的問題。

So even though, they're not all pulling the same weight when it comes to the money

是以，即使在談到錢的時候，他們並不是都在拉著同樣的重量。

and when it comes to the oil reserves,

而當涉及到石油儲備時。

there's a real history there that people don't forget.

那裡有一段真實的歷史，人們不會忘記。

So, informally, the GCC is like, the world's biggest family affair.

是以，非正式地講，海合會就像是，世界上最大的家庭事務。

In a way, yes totally.

在某種程度上，完全是的。

GCC countries, they have been some of the fastest growing economies in the world.

海灣合作委員會國家，它們一直是世界上增長最快的經濟體之一。

Yes.

是的。

Is that purely down to oil?

這純粹是由於石油造成的嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對的。

I mean, these are still all hydrocarbon economies, with the exception of Qatar, and of course,

我的意思是，這些仍然都是碳氫化合物經濟體，除了卡達，當然還有。

that's natural gas.

這就是天然氣。

The GCC, notably Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, contributes around 30% of global oil

海灣合作委員會，特別是沙特阿拉伯、阿聯酋和科威特，對全球石油的貢獻約為30%。

production.

生產。

How have the GCC countries been affected since the oil price shocks, in 2014, 2015,

自2014年、2015年的油價震盪以來，海灣合作委員會國家受到了怎樣的影響。

and the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia in 2020,

以及2020年沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯之間的石油價格戰。

brought upon by the pandemic-induced slowdown?

由大流行病引起的經濟放緩所帶來的問題？

We're talking about countries that have serious sovereign wealth funds,

我們談論的是那些擁有嚴肅的主權財富基金的國家。

and they've had to really dip into those.

而他們不得不真正深入瞭解這些。

But part of it as well is they've had to go to the international community

但其中一部分原因是他們不得不去找國際社會。

and gone to international debt markets.

並進入了國際債務市場。

They've been willing to take on debt in order to go forward.

他們一直願意承擔債務，以便向前邁進。

In 2020, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman

2020年，沙特阿拉伯、阿聯酋、卡達、巴林和阿曼

issued $42.1 billion in international debt,

發行了421億美元的國際債務。

a record for the Gulf states and a 25% increase from 2019.

是海灣國家的記錄，比2019年增長了25%。

But things might not be perking up.

但事情可能並沒有好轉。

In 2020, a report by the International Monetary Fund

在2020年，國際貨幣基金組織的一份報告

projected that the GCC's financial wealth

預計，海合會的金融財富

of $2 trillion could be depleted by 2034.

到2034年，2萬億美元的資金可能被耗盡。

Peak oil is something that we discuss so often on CNBC,

石油峰值是我們在CNBC上經常討論的東西。

the prospect of it, when it will happen, if it will happen, of course it will.

它的前景，它何時發生，如果它將發生，當然會發生。

It's been interesting to see the two narratives coming from the UAE and Saudi Arabia,

看到來自阿聯酋和沙特阿拉伯的兩種說法很有意思。

for example, how swiftly that they are trying to move to more carbon neutral policies.

例如，他們是如何迅速地試圖轉向更多的碳中和政策。

They know that they have to do that to be sustainable in a global environment where

他們知道，他們必須這樣做，才能在一個全球環境中持續發展。

there's going to be a lot of pressure to go green.

將會有很大的壓力，要走向綠色。

A report by the International Energy Agency

國際能源署的一份報告

in May 2021 noted that CO2 emissions from

在2021年5月的報告中指出

the energy sector and industries have increased by 60% since 1992.

自1992年以來，能源部門和工業的投資增加了60%。

In fact, the report, which detailed the road map

事實上，該報告詳細介紹了路線圖

to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050,

到2050年實現淨零碳排放。

was openly mocked by several OPEC leaders.

被幾個歐佩克領導人公開嘲笑。

The Saudi energy minister, for example, publicly expressed his doubts.

例如，沙特能源部長公開表達了他的疑慮。

So I think it's more of their disbelief that we're going to not need the basic,

所以我認為這更多是他們不相信我們會不需要基本的東西。

traditional sources of energy in the short to medium term.

在中短期內，傳統的能源來源。

Countries like India and China cannot exist without them,

像印度和中國這樣的國家沒有他們就無法存在。

and if they are the engines of global growth,

以及它們是否是全球增長的引擎。

then the rest of the world will feel it if they aren't fed.

那麼，如果他們不被餵養，世界上的其他人就會感受到這一點。

With the transition to green energy in the last few years, especially since it's evolved

隨著過去幾年向綠色能源的過渡，特別是它的發展變化

into a race against time not just for all of these Gulf Arab countries,

變成了一場與時間賽跑的比賽，不僅僅是對所有這些海灣阿拉伯國家。

but also in between these Gulf Arab countries as well.

但在這些海灣阿拉伯國家之間也是如此。

Perhaps the Qatar Development Bank CEO,

也許是卡達發展銀行的首席執行官。

he said it best when he asked:

他問的時候說的最好。

“What would we be able to produce if oil and gas did not exist?”

"如果石油和天然氣不存在，我們能生產什麼？"

I think that when he's saying we have to have something beyond oil to offer the world,

我認為，當他說我們必須有超越石油的東西來提供給世界。

he's speaking for every Gulf Arab economy, and it's not something that they don't know,

他是在為每一個海灣阿拉伯經濟體說話，而且這不是他們不知道的事情。

whether it be the volatility in oil prices, when they crashed out and went under 40.

無論是石油價格的波動，當他們崩潰了，並在40歲以下。

Or even during the global pandemic when they hit almost zero, I mean this was a situation

甚至在全球大流行期間，當他們幾乎達到零時，我的意思是這是一個情況

where we had negative prices for the very first time, and it was one which nobody could

在這裡，我們第一次出現了負的價格，而且是一個沒有人能夠

have predicted but certainly galvanised this push to diversification.

這也是我所預料到的，但肯定激發了對多樣化的推動。

They're working very hard though on these diversification strategies.

雖然他們在這些多元化戰略上非常努力。

They've not been unaware that the world is changing, but when you have, you know,

他們並非沒有意識到世界正在發生變化，但當你有了這種意識，你就知道了。

80 plus years of oil wealth basically dictating how your economies are running, it's a fast

80多年的石油財富基本上決定了你們的經濟運行方式，這是一個快速的過程。

and solid moving freight train

和堅實的移動貨運列車

that you've literally got to put the brakes on and then reverse.

你實際上必須踩下剎車，然後再倒車。

What Hadley is emphasising here is that economic diversification from oil is inevitable.

哈德利在這裡強調的是，經濟從石油中多樣化是不可避免的。

And each Gulf country has charted a different course to getting there.

而每個海灣國家都制定了不同的路線來實現這一目標。

For example, there's Saudi Vision 2030 – a strategic framework

例如，有沙特2030年願景--一個戰略框架

to reduce the state's dependency on oil.

以減少該州對石油的依賴性。

The vision 2030 instituted a couple years ago, with the ascension of the Crown Prince

幾年前，隨著王儲的登基，制定了2030年的願景。

Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia really changed the game in a sense because it brought

沙特阿拉伯的穆罕默德-本-薩勒曼在某種意義上真正改變了遊戲，因為它帶來了

the opportunity for an IPO of Saudi Aramco, something that nobody thought was going to

沙特阿美石油公司有機會進行首次公開募股，這是沒有人認為會發生的事情。

be possible and which they managed to pull off.

他們成功地實現了這一目標。

The listing of Saudi Aramco on the Saudi stock exchange valued the world's biggest oil

沙特石油公司在沙特證券交易所的上市，使這個世界上最大的石油公司的價值得到了提升。

and gas company at $1.7 trillion and raised $25.6 billion at the time.

和天然氣公司的1.7萬億美元，並在當時籌集了256億美元。

That amount fell short of the $100 billion investment Aramco executives were hoping to

這一數額沒有達到阿美石油公司高管們希望的1000億美元的投資。

count on to help diversify the economy away from oil.

倚賴它來幫助經濟從石油中多樣化。

For decades, education beyond religious education was not emphasised in countries

幾十年來，各國都沒有強調宗教教育以外的教育。

like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

像沙特阿拉伯和阿聯酋。

That has changed over the last 20 years or so.

這在過去20年左右的時間裡已經發生了變化。

Education is something that they've got to put a lot of emphasis on in the coming

教育是他們在未來必須大力強調的事情。

years to get that group of technocrats and entrepreneurs, frankly, that they really need.

多年來，坦率地說，為了獲得他們真正需要的那批技術專家和企業家。

They've got to go very, very fast, because what they are attempting to do is to get people

他們必須走得非常、非常快，因為他們試圖做的是讓人們

off the public dime in terms of government jobs and have them creating their own businesses,

在政府工作方面，他們不需要花錢，並讓他們創建自己的企業。

working in private companies.

在私營公司工作。

For example, tourism inside Saudi Arabia,

例如，沙特阿拉伯境內的旅遊業。

that's one of the big things that they're investing in.

這是他們正在投資的大事情之一。

They want to create jobs by doing this, they want to open up the country by doing this,

他們想通過這樣做來創造就業機會，他們想通過這樣做來開放國家。

something that you've never seen prior to Mohammed bin Salman and King Salman.

在穆罕默德-本-薩勒曼和薩勒曼國王之前，你從未見過這樣的東西。

How quickly that's changed, how fundamentally the Crown Prince's policies have changed

這種變化有多快，王儲的政策有多大的根本性變化

things for young people, most of the population is under the age of 35.

年輕人的事情，大多數人的年齡都在35歲以下。

It's an incredibly ambitious project, because it's not just about the economics of it,

這是一個令人難以置信的雄心勃勃的項目，因為它不僅僅是關於它的經濟。

it's also about the culture of it, it's about the social aspect of it as well,

這也是關於它的文化，它也是關於它的社會方面。

allowing women to drive, they want more women in the workforce,

允許婦女開車，他們希望有更多的婦女加入勞動力隊伍。

they know that they need that in order to be economically sustainable.

他們知道，為了在經濟上可持續，他們需要這樣做。

There has been a big shift in the UAE, in their priority, towards hydrogen.

在阿聯酋，在他們的優先權方面，已經有一個很大的轉變，即轉向氫氣。

Yeah, green hydrogen.

是的，綠色氫氣。

I mean, this is something that we've been talking about quite a bit as well

我的意思是，這也是我們一直在談論的事情，也是相當多的事情

over the last few years.

在過去的幾年中。

This is something that the country takes very seriously, and that they're taking very

這是國家非常重視的事情，而且他們正在非常認真地對待。

seriously to the international community.

對國際社會來說，這是一個嚴肅的問題。

In Dubai, a green hydrogen facility was piloted in 2021,

在迪拜，一個綠色氫氣設施在2021年進行了試點。

to produce eco-friendly hydrogen using renewable energy.

利用可再生能源生產生態友好型氫氣。

It's the first of its kind in the Middle East and North Africa.

這是在中東和北非的第一個此類項目。

Will economic diversification mean that the development initiatives within the GCC,

經濟多樣化是否意味著海合會內部的發展舉措。

do they need to evolve?

他們是否需要進化？

Will it lead to the very notion of the GCC itself becoming obsolete?

這是否會導致海合會本身的概念變得過時？

They know that when they all stand together, they're stronger than individually.

他們知道，當他們都站在一起時，他們比單個人更強大。

So for the GCC countries, if we're thinking about whether or not they'll continue within

是以，對於海灣合作委員會國家，如果我們考慮他們是否會繼續在

the GCC construct, I would say that, absolutely they will because they're still going to

我想說的是，他們絕對會，因為他們仍然會

have conflicts within GCC countries that they need to resolve.

海灣合作委員會國家內部有需要解決的衝突。

The member countries have disagreed on a number of affairs,

成員國在一些事務上存在分歧。

including foreign policy and competing economic visions.

包括外交政策和相互競爭的經濟願景。

They're all family, but you know, there's always disagreements within the family.

他們都是一家人，但你知道，家庭內部總是有分歧。

The Omanis are incredibly pragmatic; they have been the ones who in the past have done

阿曼人是非常務實的；他們在過去一直是做

the secret negotiations with Iran.

與伊朗的祕密談判。

The conversations that Oman was secretly, quietly leading

阿曼祕密地、悄悄地上司的對話

between the United States and Iran.

美國和伊朗之間的關係。

Now, did the Gulf Arab countries generally take very kindly to that, well of course no.

現在，海灣阿拉伯國家是否普遍對這一點非常友好，當然沒有。

Another notable conflict was the Qatar crisis that lasted three years, ending in January

另一個值得注意的衝突是持續了三年的卡達危機，於1月結束。

ending in January 2021.

於2021年1月結束。

GCC members Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain, along with Egypt, severed diplomatic relations

海合會成員沙特阿拉伯、阿聯酋和巴林以及埃及斷絕了外交關係

with Qatar, citing the latter's alleged support for terrorism, which Qatar denies.

報道稱，卡達被指支持恐怖主義，但卡達否認了這一說法。

Airspace and maritime borders were also closed between Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

沙特阿拉伯和卡達之間的空域和海上邊界也被關閉。

At the end of the day, what we'll see in post, that Qatar rift, for example, is that

在一天結束的時候，我們會看到在後，比如說卡達的那個裂縫，就是

Saudi Arabia and Qatar, seemingly just jumped right back in the pool together.

沙特阿拉伯和卡達，似乎就這樣一起跳回了游泳池。

Nobody wants to be left on the wrong side of history.

沒有人願意被留在歷史的錯誤一邊。

They want to focus on what they know best, which is money, making money, how to do that,

他們想專注於他們最熟悉的事情，那就是錢，賺錢，如何做到這一點。

bringing big business into the region.

將大企業引入該地區。

And part of that obviously, is looking to new partners, and really push a narrative

而其中的一部分，顯然是尋找新的合作伙伴，並真正推動一種說法

for it, which is you know, open for business.

為它，這是你知道的，為企業開放。

This is a part of the world that will continue to be incredibly important, even as we diversify

這是世界上將繼續無比重要的一部分，即使是在我們多樣化的時候。

away from carbon, hydrocarbons.

遠離碳，碳氫化合物。

There was a little chant that the Middle East bureau in CNBC had.

CNBC的中東局有一個小口號。

With Martin Conroy, you got to make sure he sees this if I do it.

對於馬丁-康羅伊，如果我這樣做，你必須確保他看到這個。

“Gotta diversify! Gotta diversify!” Like a musical.

"必須多樣化!必須多樣化！"就像一部音樂劇。

We came up with that just to keep encouraging ourselves.

我們想出這個辦法只是為了不斷鼓勵自己。

That was the narrative over the last 10 years I would say, gotta diversify.

這就是過去10年的敘述，我想說的是，必須多樣化。