are going to talk about "Vietnam strengthens its defenses on the Spratly Islands to send

我們 要談“越南加強在南沙群島的防禦將 消息

a message to the People's Republic of China”. But before we discuss it further, let's

發送 到人民共和國的中國”。但是，在我們進一步的討論，讓我們

start with a question, Why are the Spratly Islands important?

有一個問題，為什麼在南沙群島重要？ 南沙群島

The spratly islands are important for economic and strategic reasons. The Spratly area holds

啟動 島嶼是重要的經濟和戰略原因。南沙地區擁有

potentially significant, but largely unexplored, reserves of oil and natural gas, it is a productive

潛在的重要但大部分未開發的石油和天然氣儲量，它是 世界漁業

area for world fishing, it is one of the busiest areas of commercial shipping traffic, and

的生產 區，它是商業航運最繁忙的地區之一，以及

surrounding countries would get an extended continental shelf if their claims were recognized.

周邊地區如果他們的主張得到承認，這些國家將獲得擴大的大陸架。

In addition to economic incentives, the Spratlys sit astride major maritime trade routes to

除了經濟激勵外，南沙群島橫跨通往 東北亞的

Northeast Asia, giving them added significance as positions from which to monitor maritime

主要海上貿易路線 ，這使它們作為監視 南海 海上

activity in the South China Sea and to potentially base and project military force from. In 2014,

活動和2014 年， 中國因其在 南沙群島的 疏浚活動而引起了越來越多的國際關注。

China drew increased international attention due to its dredging activities within the

是的，有人猜測它正計劃進一步發展其在

Spratlys, amidst speculation it is planning to further develop its military presence in

該地區的 軍事存在 。通過改善其在 南沙群島的

the area. By improving its defense facilities on the

防禦設施並在 附近進行海軍演習，越南正在向

Spratly Islands and conducting a naval exercise nearby, Vietnam is sending a signal to the

中華人民共和國 發出一個信號， 即兩國之間就其

People's Republic of China that armed engagement between the two over their conflicting claims

對這些島嶼 的衝突主張 進行 武裝接觸 將付出代價。

to the islands would come at a cost. The PRC has long been fortifying artificial islands

在北京 下令其軍事工程師通過填海將 人工島嶼 抬高到海平面以上

within the Spratly chain that were designated as “maritime features” before Beijing

之前 ，中國長期以來一直 在南沙群島鏈中

ordered its military engineers to raise them above sea level through reclamation.

加固人工島嶼 ，這些 人工島嶼 被指定為“海洋特徵”

As reported by VnExpress online newspaper, Vietnam's Navy conducted combat-readiness

。 據報導由VnExpress在線報紙，越南海軍進行了

drills with its 1,500-ton Quang Trung frigate in Spratly waters in early April 2021. Ka-28

在南沙群島海域的1500噸級杜光護衛艦 戰備 演練在四月初2021卡-28

anti-submarine helicopters also participated in the exercise with the Quang Trung, which

反潛直升機也參加了演習與杜光，其

is equipped with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles.

配備與反艦和防空導彈。

Hanoi's enhanced fortifications in the South China Sea island chain in recent months include

最近幾個月，河內在南海島鏈上加強了防禦工事，包括

coastal defense installations, concrete pads and bunkers, administrative buildings and

海防設施、混凝土墊和掩體、行政大樓和

a large tower apparently for communications or signals intelligence, the Center for Strategic

一座顯然用於通信或信號情報的大型塔樓，戰略

and International Studies' Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) reported, over

與國際研究中心的亞洲海事透明度倡議 (AMTI) ) 報導，在

the last two years, “West Reef and Sin Cowe Island have seen the most drastic changes”

過去兩年中，“西礁和辛考島發生了最劇烈的變化”

of all of Vietnam's outposts in the disputed Spratly Islands group, noting that most of

，這是有爭議的南沙群島中越南所有前哨基地，並指出

the 70 acres of dry land at West Reef is reclaimed land, with a further 26 acres at Sin Cowe

西礁 70 英畝的 大部分 旱地已被開墾土地，在 Sin Cowe 島

Island being similarly reclaimed. The changes include the building of “several coastal

還有 26 英畝的土地也 被類似地開墾。這些變化包括 過去兩年

defense installations, administrative buildings, concrete pads and bunkers, and a large tower

在西礁 建造“幾個海防 設施、行政大樓、混凝土墊和掩體，以及一個

structure presumably for communications of signals intelligence” at West Reef over

可能用於信號情報通信的 大型塔式 結構”

the past two years. Similar additions have appeared on other Vietnam-controlled parts

。在 南沙群島的 其他越南控制的部分

of the Spratlys, such as Sand Cay, Central Reef and Spratly Island.

，如沙礁、中央珊瑚礁和南沙島， 也出現了類似的增加 。

Vietnam's national legislature declared in 2012 that it has sufficient evidence and

越南國家立法機構於 2012 年宣布 ，根據《聯合國 海洋法公約》

a legal basis to assert sovereignty over the Spratlys, in accordance with the United Nations

，它有足夠的證據和 法律依據主張對南沙群島的主權

Convention on the Law of the Sea. In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague, Netherlands,

。 2016 年，荷蘭海牙的一個國際法庭 裁定， 在與菲律賓的爭端中，

ruled as unlawful the PRC's claims to an exclusive economic zone around its artificial

中國對圍繞其人工 特徵 的專屬經濟區的主張是非法的

features in a dispute with the Philippines, which also claims some of the Spratlys. Vietnam's

，菲律賓也對一些南沙群島提出了主張。 AMTI 的負責人

presence on the Spratlys predates that of the PRC by many years, AMTI's director,

Greg Poling 告訴《論壇》， 越南 在南沙群島

Greg Poling, told FORUM, and it has built fortifications on natural islands and reclaimed

的 存在比中國早很多年 ，而且它在自然島嶼上建造了防禦工事，並 從這些

land extending from them. PRC fortifications, while larger, sit on entirely reclaimed land

島嶼上開墾了 土地。中華人民共和國的防禦工事雖然更大，但坐落在完全開墾的土地上

which constitute artificial features. Poling said that Vietnam is focused mainly

，構成了人工特徵。波林表示，越南主要專注

on making its islands more resilient, survivable and ensuring that it can give China a bloody

於使其島嶼更具彈性和生存能力，並確保在這方面可以讓中國

nose if it comes to that. Keeping its installations supplied is key, therefore deeper harbors

流鼻血。保持其設施供應是關鍵，因此 為更大的船隻增加了

and channels for larger vessels have been added, along with helipads on all the islands

更深的港口 和航道，以及所有島嶼上的直升機停機坪，

so they can be resupplied by air to prevent the Chinese from starving them out in a conflict.

這樣它們就可以通過空中補給，以防止中國人在衝突中餓死它們。

Vietnam also has built four aircraft hangars on Spratly Island and extended its runway

越南還在南沙島上建造了四個飛機庫，並 為更大的飛機

for larger aircraft. So, Hanoi's naval drills and fortifications

延長了跑道 。因此，河內的海軍演習和防禦工事

signal to Beijing that Vietnam is ready to defend its claims. The danger is we really

向北京發出了越南準備捍衛其主張的信號。危險在於我們真的

don't know how it is being received. Beijing has been remarkably tone-deaf to the signals

不知道它是如何被接收的。北京一直 對其東南亞鄰國發出

being sent by its Southeast Asian neighbors and, as a result, what you have seen is time

的信號充耳不聞， 因此，你所看到的是 中國 一次

and again China is undertaking a degree of coerciveness and aggression in the South China

又一次地在 南海 採取一定程度的脅迫和侵略，

Sea that undermines its broader strategy of influence in the region.

這破壞了其更廣泛的戰略在該地區的影響力。

Notwithstanding the vastly different strategic context Vietnam finds itself situated in today,

儘管今天越南所處的戰略環境大不相同，

there is no room for complacency. Vietnam should expect to fight China again if push

但我們沒有自滿的餘地。如果迫不得已，越南應該期待再次與中國作戰

ever comes to shove. Entertaining this prospect is not far-fetched, if one takes it seriously

。如果人們認真對待 北京在 2017 年 8 月威脅要在有爭議的水域攻擊越南軍隊，除非

Beijing's threat in August 2017 to attack Vietnamese forces in disputed waters unless

河內要求西班牙能源公司 Repsol 停止其在

Hanoi were to demand that the Spanish energy firm Repsol stand down from its work in an

海上碳氫化合物區塊的 工作，

offshore hydrocarbon block claimed also by China. Hanoi did capitulate eventually, and

否則 這一前景並不牽強 。中國。河內最終投降了，

Repsol stood down. But clearly, Vietnam does not wish to appear weak in front of China.

雷普索爾下台了。但顯然，越南不希望在中國面前顯得軟弱。

Credibility is at stake, with both domestic and external repercussions for the ruling

信譽岌岌可危， 河內 的統治 精英在

elite in Hanoi. And by now, after seeing the way ASEAN intramural dynamics play out over

國內外都會受到影響 。到目前為止，在看到 多年來 東盟內部動態

many years on the South China Sea disputes, Hanoi would have reached the dire conclusion

在南海爭端上的表現後，河內會得出一個可怕的結論

that the bloc, if there is ever going to be an outright shooting war with China, would

，即如果與中國發生直接的戰爭，該集團

not offer a united stance except perhaps to issue an obligatory statement calling upon

不會提出統一立場，除非可能發表強制性聲明，呼籲

all sides to cease fighting and negotiate a settlement. Some of the individual ASEAN

各方停止戰鬥並談判解決辦法。個別東盟

member states may even overtly take Beijing's side, or just stay neutral. At best Vietnam

成員國甚至可能公然站在北京一邊，或者只是保持中立。越南充其量

could rely on ASEAN as a bedrock for post-conflict economic recovery, even though such a prospect

只能依靠東盟作為衝突後經濟復甦的基石，儘管 考慮到該集團與中國的經濟相互依存

is still far from certain considering the bloc's economic interdependence with China

以及後者可能進行的經濟報復， 這種前景

and possible economic retaliation by the latter. It is most likely that Vietnam would receive

仍遠未確定 。 在與中國就南海 爆發點 發生戰爭時

support from multiple major powers in times of a war with China over the South China Sea

，越南最有可能得到 多個大國的支持

flashpoint, but not direct military intervention, especially if Beijing elects to keep the clashes

，但不會得到直接的軍事干預，特別是如果北京選擇將衝突

localized and well contained to avoid provoking an overwhelming international response. As

局部化並妥善控制以避免引發壓倒性 的衝突 國際反應。因此

such, Hanoi could expect those friendly extra regional powers to cheer for it, or at best

，河內可以期待那些友好的額外地區大國為它歡呼，或者充其量

offer diplomatic condemnation against Beijing, and possibly some form of material and technical

對北京進行外交譴責，並可能 為其戰鬥努力提供

aid for its fighting efforts. But not more than that.

某種形式的物質和技術 援助。但不止於此。

If that fateful day eventually comes, will the United States flex its muscles with a

如果那個決定性的日子最終到來，美國是否會在

carrier strike group somewhere close to Chinese shores or near the scene of battle, and will

靠近中國海岸或戰鬥現場的某個地方 與 航母打擊群一起展示實力，

that make any difference to the outcome? Perhaps, but nobody can be sure.

這會對結果產生什麼影響嗎？也許吧，但沒有人能確定。

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感謝您的觀看，一如既往，如果您喜歡這個視頻，請不要忘記點贊、分享

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