connections.

連接。

Wealth wasn't something you could create or build but rather inherit.

財富不是你可以創造或建立的，而是繼承的。

If you would come from a wealthy family, you had the opportunity to trade, buy land and

如果你來自一個富裕的家庭，你有機會進行貿易，購買土地和

expand your business but if you didn't, your chances to get out of poverty were slim, to

擴大你的業務，但如果你不這樣做，你擺脫貧困的機會就很渺茫，以

say the least.

至少可以這樣說。

In fact, the only source of passive income was the interest where you could lend your

事實上，唯一的被動收入來源是利息，在那裡你可以借出你的

money to the nobility who would use it to wage wars, conquer more land and then force

錢給貴族，他們會用這些錢來發動戰爭，征服更多的土地，然後強迫

these people to pay taxes in order to pay you back.

這些人要繳稅，以便向你償還。

That's how the Rothschild family built their fortune.

這就是羅斯柴爾德家族建立其財富的方式。

The king will pay as much interest as you want because his kingdom and reputation are

國王會按你的要求支付多少利息，因為他的王國和聲譽是

at risk, so interests on these loans were beyond your imagination, but the king did

風險，所以這些貸款的利息超出了你的想象，但國王確實

not care because the peasants will pay astronomical taxes at the end of the day to pay off that

不在乎，因為農民到最後會支付天文數字的稅款來償還這些錢。

debt.

債務。

However, that changed with the introduction of the stock market.

然而，這種情況隨著股票市場的引入而改變。

Businesses could break down the company into little pieces and sell it to the general public,

企業可以把公司分解成小塊，然後賣給普通民眾。

and as the company grew and expanded, the businesses shared its profit with its shareholders.

而隨著公司的成長和擴大，企業與股東分享其利潤。

Not a single industry created more millionaires or billionaires than the stock market.

沒有一個行業比股票市場創造了更多的百萬或億萬富翁。

Some people have mastered the stock market so deeply that they have created a fortune

有些人對股票市場的掌握如此之深，以至於他們創造了一筆財富

of 100 billion dollars (Warren Buffett).

的1000億美元（沃倫-巴菲特）。

In fact, every company that wants to grow and compete with a multinational corporation

事實上，每一個想要發展並與跨國公司競爭的公司

has to list itself on the stock market through an IPO.

必須通過IPO在股票市場上市。

Of Course, the stock market carries its risks as well.

當然，股票市場也有其風險。

If you bet your money on the wrong stock, you might lose your hard-earned capital.

如果你把錢押在錯誤的股票上，你可能會損失你辛苦賺來的資本。

Take a look at what happened to GameStop.

看看GameStop發生了什麼。

People lost a fortune investing in GameStop.

人們在GameStop的投資中損失了一大筆財富。

But that's just one example.

但這只是一個例子。

Those who invested in the stock market prior to the dot com crash lost almost all of their

那些在互聯網崩潰之前投資於股市的人幾乎損失了他們所有的錢。

money.

錢。

Amazons stock price, for example, fell from 107 dollars to as little as 7 dollars, and

例如，Amazons的股價從107美元跌至7美元，而

if it hadn't secured funding right before the crash, it could have gone bankrupt, and

如果它沒有在崩潰前獲得資金，它可能已經破產了，而且

all those people who invested hundreds of millions of dollars into it would have lost

所有那些投資於它的數億美元的人都會失去

their fortunes and Bezos wouldn't have flown to space in 2021.

他們的財富和貝索斯就不會在2021年飛往太空。

The same happened in 2008 when the housing crash collapsed, so it's not only important

同樣的情況也發生在2008年，當時房地產崩盤，是以，這不僅是重要的

to invest in the right company but also invest at the right time.

要投資於正確的公司，但也要在正確的時間投資。

If you have invested in February 2020, you would have lost at least 30 percent of your

如果你在2020年2月投資，你將至少損失30%的資金。

money by Mach, but if you had invested in march 2020, by now, you would have doubled

但如果你在2020年3月投資，到現在，你已經翻了一番。

your money.

你的錢。

So let's find out why wall street believes that the economy has peaked?

那麼讓我們來看看為什麼華爾街認為經濟已經見頂？

How is that going to impact the stock market?

這將如何影響股票市場？

And why millennials should stop buying stocks?

以及為什麼千禧一代應該停止購買股票？

We will answer all of these questions and many more but before we do that, give this

我們將回答所有這些問題以及更多的問題，但在這之前，請看這個

video a thumbs up, and here is a little disclaimer.

視頻一個大拇指，這裡有一個小小的免責聲明。

This is not financial advice, and everything that's said in this video is for educational

這不是財務建議，本視頻中所說的一切是教育性的。

and entertainment purposes.

和娛樂的目的。

This Bloomberg article claims that the economy has reached its full potential, and it's getting

彭博社的這篇文章聲稱，經濟已經達到了它的全部潛力，而且它正在變得

ready to decline.

準備拒絕。

There is something called an economic cycle.

有一種東西叫做經濟週期。

The economy starts by expansion.

經濟的開始是擴張。

It grows pretty fast, businesses hire more people, wages rise, and people spending goes

它的增長速度相當快，企業僱用更多的人，工資上漲，人們的消費也隨之增加。

up, but that doesn't continue forever.

了，但這不會永遠持續下去。

At some point, the economy reaches full employment, wages stop rising, and additional spending

在某些時候，經濟達到充分就業，工資停止上漲，額外的支出

causes higher inflation.

導致更高的通貨膨脹。

That's when you know that the economy is not growing anymore.

這時你就知道，經濟不再增長了。

The Fed raises interest rates and limits the inflow of cash into the economy in order to

美聯儲提高利率並限制現金流入經濟，以便

keep inflation under control.

保持通貨膨脹得到控制。

Businesses and people start spending less and less, and the economy prepares for a crisis.

企業和人們的支出開始越來越少，經濟為危機做準備。

After the 2008 crash, the Fed lowered interest rates to stimulate growth, but in 2017, once

2008年崩盤後，美聯儲降低了利率以刺激增長，但在2017年，一旦

the economy reached its peak, the Fed started raising rates.

經濟達到高峰，美聯儲開始加息。

By 2019, interest rates reached an all-time high of 2.5 percent.

到2019年，利率達到了2.5%的歷史高點。

The US started a trade war, and the pandemic was the final punch that drove the economy

美國發動貿易戰，大流行病是推動經濟的最後一拳

down into a recession.

跌入經濟衰退。

Ideally, we should have followed the exact same path.

理想情況下，我們應該遵循完全相同的路徑。

The Fed lowers rates, injects trillions into the economy, the economy takes a few years

美聯儲降低利率，向經濟注入萬億資金，經濟需要幾年時間

to recover, stabilizes for another few years, and another crisis should not happen in the

恢復，再穩定幾年，另一場危機應該不會發生在中國。

next 5 to 10 years at least.

至少在未來5到10年內。

But things didn't go as planned.

但事情並沒有按計劃進行。

The nature of the last crisis was quite different from previous crises, so the only way the

上一次危機的性質與以往的危機有很大不同，是以，唯一的辦法是

Fed saw its way out of the crisis is by injecting more money into the economy than it ever had.

美聯儲認為其擺脫危機的方法是向經濟中注入比以往更多的資金。

Surprise!

驚喜!

Surprise, it worked!

驚喜的是，它成功了!

In fact, it grew the economy so fast that the SP500 grew by a larger percentage from

事實上，它的經濟增長速度如此之快，以至於SP500指數的增長百分比從

march 2020 to July 2021 than it did from 2014 to March 2020, which is what led many wall

2020年3月至2021年7月，比起2014年至2020年3月，這也是導致許多牆面的

street investors to believe that we might have reached the peak.

街頭投資者認為我們可能已經達到了頂峰。

But that's not all.

但這還不是全部。

The Fed perfectly knew that if it's going to increase the money supply by 25 percent

美聯儲完全知道，如果它要增加25%的貨幣供應量

in a single year, it will have to get that money out of the economy once we are out of

在一年中，它將不得不把這些錢從經濟中拿出來，一旦我們擺脫了這些錢。

the crises in order to prevent high inflation.

為了防止高額通貨膨脹，危機的發生。

Keep in mind that one of the main reasons why the US dollar is the dominant currency

請記住，美元之所以成為主導貨幣的主要原因之一是

is because its stable.

是因為它很穩定。

60 percent of global currency reserves are held in US dollar because t he world believes

60%的全球貨幣儲備是以美元持有的，因為世界認為

that its the most stable and transparent currency, its United States's golden treasure and the

它是最穩定和最透明的貨幣，它是美國的黃金寶藏，也是美國最重要的貨幣。

Fed will do everything to keep it that way.

美聯儲將盡一切努力保持這種狀態。

Does that mean you should not invest and wait until everything crashes?

這是否意味著你不應該投資，而要等到一切崩潰？

Well, it's not as simple as that.

好吧，事情沒有那麼簡單。

First of all, it's really difficult to time the market and impossible to predict the future.

首先，為市場計時真的很困難，不可能預測未來。

We can make as many predictions as we want, but only time will tell what the future is

我們可以盡情地進行預測，但只有時間才能告訴我們未來是什麼。

holding for us.

為我們持有。

If you are a long-term investor, you shouldn't care about what Wall Street is saying, but

如果你是一個長期投資者，你不應該關心華爾街在說什麼，但

if you are a trader and need to show huge gains quarter to quarter, that's something

如果你是一個交易員，需要在每一季度顯示出巨大的收益，那是一些

to worry about.

要擔心的是。

But the reason why millennials should stop investing is that the combination of stimulus

但千禧一代應該停止投資的原因是，刺激措施的組合

checks, lockdown, and an astronomical rise of the stock market has led to a new form

檢查、封鎖，以及股市的天價上漲導致了一種新的形式。

of gambling.

的賭博。

Millennials started buying stocks not because behind them stands really great, strong, profitable

千禧一代開始購買股票，不是因為他們背後站著真正偉大、強大、有利可圖的

companies but rather because it's a popular stock since everyone is buying that stock

公司，而是因為它是一個受歡迎的股票，因為每個人都在購買這種股票。

on social media as a way to get rich quickly.

在社交媒體上，作為一種快速致富的方式。

In fact, some people actually did make a lot of money out of them.

事實上，有些人確實從他們身上賺了很多錢。

But the vast majority lost.

但絕大多數人都輸了。

When GameStop stock price for example was trading at 300 or 400 or 450 dollars.

例如，當GameStop的股票價格在300或400或450美元的時候。

Remember, people were paying real money to buy the stock at that price.

請記住，人們是花了真金白銀來買這個價格的股票。

The demand is what kept the price increasing.

需求是保持價格上漲的原因。

But when it fell to 40 dollars, most of these people lost their investments, and even now,

但當它跌至40美元時，這些人中的大多數都失去了投資，甚至現在也是如此。

the stock is trading at around 180 dollars.

該股票的交易價格約為180美元。

You might say that it was because broker apps prevented retail investing from buying the

你可能會說，這是因為經紀人應用程序阻止了零售投資購買

stock, and that's true.

股票，這也是事實。

But let's take another example, AMC or Dogecoin.

但讓我們舉另一個例子，AMC或Dogecoin。

Dogecoin is not a stock, but people are investing in it for the exact same reason.

狗幣不是股票，但人們出於完全相同的原因投資於它。

Most retail investors bought it, hoping that they will get rich quickly.

大多數散戶投資者買了它，希望他們能迅速致富。

People love the idea of getting rich quickly.

人們喜歡快速致富的想法。

That's why gambling is so popular.

這就是為什麼賭博如此受歡迎。

Every year, Americans spend 40 billion on gambling, but when casinos were closed down

每年，美國人在賭博上花費400億，但當賭場被關閉後

due to the lockdown, people turned to stocks.

由於被封鎖，人們轉而購買股票。

Of course stocks are not gambling machines because behind every stock there is a company

當然，股票不是賭博機，因為每支股票背後都有一個公司。

but if you invest without studying that company, analyzing financial statements, or doing your

但如果你不研究該公司，不分析財務報表，或不做你的投資，就進行投資。

fundamentals, then you're gambling.

基本面，那麼你就是在賭博。

By the way, if you want to learn all of that, then you can check out my Course on skillshare,

順便說一下，如果你想學習所有這些，那麼你可以在技能共享上查看我的課程。

which is simple, straightforward, and fully animated.

這是一個簡單、直截了當和完全動畫化的項目。

It doesn't matter whether you are beginning or already an investor.

無論你是開始還是已經是投資者，這都不重要。

You ill find this Course helpful.

你會發現這個課程很有幫助。

The first 500 people to click on the link in the description will get 2 weeks of skillshare

前500名點擊描述中的鏈接的人將獲得2周的技能共享。

premium and will be able to watch the Course for free.

溢價，就能免費觀看課程。

At the end of the course, there will be an assignment that you will have to complete,

在課程結束時，將有一項作業，你必須完成。

which I will personally check and provide you with feedback.

我將親自檢查並向你提供反饋。

The problem is that when the market is booming, everything is growing, including junk stocks

問題是，當市場蓬勃發展時，一切都在增長，包括垃圾股。

or junk assets.

或垃圾資產。

So when you throw your money into these unstable assets and make some money, that encourages

是以，當你把你的錢扔進這些不穩定的資產並賺了一些錢，這就鼓勵了

you to trade more and invest more money, but like everything else, whatever rises will

你要做更多的交易，投資更多的錢，但就像其他事情一樣，無論什麼東西上升都會

eventually fall especially if it's a risky asset.

最終會下跌，特別是如果它是一種風險資產。

Let me ask you a question, are you ready to hold these investments for the next 5 to 10

讓我問你一個問題，你是否準備好在未來5到10年持有這些投資？

years?

年？

Probably not because today it's a popular meme stock but tomorrow, something else will

可能不是因為今天它是一個流行的備忘錄股票，但明天，別的東西會

be a popular meme stock, so you are eventually basing your strategy on luck, and luck is

是一個流行的備忘錄股票，所以你最終是把你的策略建立在運氣上，而運氣是

not a strategy.

不是一個戰略。

It's alright to trade and gamble on some of these stocks, but if you are doing that, in

在其中一些股票上進行交易和賭博是可以的，但如果你這樣做，在

fact, you should be prepared to lose all of that money! if a stock or an asset can grow

事實上，你應該準備好失去所有的錢！如果一隻股票或一項資產能夠增長

by 100 percent overnight, then it also can go to zero overnight.

在一夜之間增加100%，那麼它也可以在一夜之間變成零。

That's simply a fact whether you like it or not.

無論你喜歡與否，這只是一個事實。

Don't let your emotions get in the way of your investing decisions.

不要讓你的情緒妨礙你的投資決定。

Feeling lucky because you invested in the right stock is an amazing feeling.

因為你投資了正確的股票而感到幸運，這種感覺很奇妙。

But it also can destroy you.

但它也能摧毀你。

Investing is a long-term game and behind every company stands a real company that sells real

投資是一個長期的遊戲，每個公司的背後都站著一個真正的公司，銷售真正的產品。

products, real services and the world of business is brutal.

產品，真正的服務和商業世界是殘酷的。

Try starting a business, and then you will understand that.

試著創業，然後你就會明白這一點。

Either base your investment decision on facts and proper analysis or don't bet the money

要麼基於事實和適當的分析做出投資決定，要麼就不要賭錢。

you are not ready to lose because that's how gambling works.

你還沒有準備好輸掉，因為這就是賭博的原理。

For every person who makes a million dollars, a few hundred thousand people lose.

每一個賺到一百萬美元的人，都有幾十萬人失去。

If you have enjoyed this video, you will most definitely enjoy this custom playlist that

如果你喜歡這個視頻，你一定會喜歡這個定製的播放列表，它是

I have created specifically for you that has our most popular videos on business, investing,

我專門為你創建了有我們最受歡迎的商業、投資方面的視頻。

and the stock market that can potentially change your life.

和股票市場，有可能改變你的生活。

And now give this video the thumbs up that it deserves, and make sure to subscribe if

現在給這個視頻豎起應有的大拇指，並確保訂閱，如果

you haven't done that yet.

你還沒有做到這一點。

Thanks for watching and until next.

謝謝你的觀看，直到下一次。