But it doesn't matter because at the end of the day, Bitcoin is a tiny part of the Blockchain.

但這並不重要，因為到最後，比特幣只是區塊鏈的一個很小的部分。

Whether Bitcoin succeeds or not, Blockchain will still be the technology that will govern the future.

無論比特幣成功與否，區塊鏈仍將是支配未來的技術。

But it seems like a big chunk of you disagrees with me.

但似乎你們中有很大一部分人不同意我的看法。

But it doesn't matter because today we are going to discuss the mother of all crashes as Michael Barry calls it.

但這並不重要，因為今天我們要討論的是邁克爾-巴里所說的所有崩潰之母。

Some people don't like Michael Barry because he believes that the chart crypto is in a bubble and it is going to crush together with meme stocks.

有些人不喜歡邁克爾-巴里，因為他認為圖表中的加密貨幣正處於保麗龍之中，它將與備忘錄股票一起粉碎。

If it was a random person like me then you can call him dumb stupid and whatever you want.

如果是像我這樣的隨便一個人，那麼你可以說他是啞巴蠢貨，想怎麼說就怎麼說。

But this guy is so smart that Hollywood made an entire movie about him.

但這傢伙太聰明瞭，以至於好萊塢為他拍了一整部電影。

The fact that Hollywood made a movie about him doesn't make him smart.

好萊塢為他拍了一部電影的事實並不意味著他很聰明。

But since he has predicted precisely the 2008 crush and earned hundreds of millions of dollars in the process, has gave him the reputation of a financial genius.

但由於他準確預測了2008年的擠壓，並在此過程中賺取了數億美元，使他獲得了金融天才的聲譽。

Who can predict crashes?

誰能預測撞車？

Isn't that awesome?

這不是很好嗎？

If you can not for sure that what will crash and what will rise, you're destined to make millions while hedge funds who shorted Tesla lost millions of dollars?

如果你不能確定什麼會崩潰，什麼會上升，你就註定要賺取數百萬美元，而做空特斯拉的對沖基金卻損失了數百萬美元？

Guess who profited by shorting Tesla?

猜猜誰通過做空特斯拉獲利？

Yes, the man himself, Michael barry barry shorted over 800,000 shares or $534 million by the end of the first quarter of this year and tweeted about it.

是的，這個人自己，邁克爾-巴里-巴里在今年第一季度末做空了80多萬股或5.34億美元，並在推特上發表了這一消息。

Guess what happened to Tesla stock?

猜猜看特斯拉的股票發生了什麼？

It dropped to around $600 since he started his hedge funds in the two thousands.

自從他的對沖基金在兩千美元開始後，它就下降到了600美元左右。

He immediately made extraordinary profits in his first full year.

他在第一個整年中立即獲得了非凡的利潤。

In the 2000 and one, the S and P 500 fell 11.88%.

在2000年和一，S和P 500指數下跌11.88%。

Sign was up 55%.

標誌是55%的增長。

Barry achieved this returns by shorting overvalued tech stocks at the peak of the Internet bubble.

巴里通過在互聯網保麗龍的高峰期做空被高估的科技股來實現這一回報。

The next year, the S&P.

第二年，S&P。

fell again by 22%, and yet sign was up again 16% the next year.

又下降了22%，但第二年的標誌又上升了16%。

In 2003, The stock market finally turned around and rose 28.7%.

2003年，股市終於轉好，上漲了28.7%。

But Mike Barry beat it again.

但邁克-巴里再次擊敗了它。

His investment rose by 50%.

他的投資增加了50%。

By the end of the 2004, Mike Barry was managing $600 million 2005, Barry started to focus on the subprime market.

到2004年底，邁克-巴里管理著6億美元 2005年，巴里開始專注於次貸市場。

Throughout his analysis of mortgage lending practices in 2003 and 2004, he predicted that the real estate bubble would collapse as early as 2007.

在2003年和2004年對抵押貸款行為的整個分析中，他預測房地產保麗龍最早將在2007年崩潰。

Eventually he was right, the market crushed.

最終他是對的，市場崩潰了。

He earned a personal profit of $100 million $700 million 500%.

他的個人利潤為1億美元7億美元500%。

He also predicted that Bitcoin price is too high before it crushed to around $30,000.

他還預測，比特幣價格在碾壓到30000美元左右之前是太高了。

In fact, he specifically said that if you don't know how much leverage is involved in the run up, you might not know enough to own it.

事實上，他特別說過，如果你不知道上漲過程中涉及多少槓桿，你可能就不知道如何擁有它。

Many of you are going to dislike this video because of what I'm about to say.

你們中的許多人將不喜歡這段視頻，因為我即將要說的話。

But instead, if all of you are going to give this video a thumbs up, I'm going to explain why leverage is so important in understanding Bitcoin.

但相反，如果你們所有人都對這個視頻豎起大拇指，我將解釋為什麼槓桿在理解比特幣方面如此重要。

Why exactly Michael Barry thinks that the mother of all crushes is coming.

究竟為什麼邁克爾-巴里認為所有暗戀的母親即將到來。

And whether we should trust him or not.

以及我們是否應該相信他。

To understand the problem with modern economy, you have to understand leverage.

要了解現代經濟的問題，你必須瞭解槓桿。

We have created so many creative forms of debts that no one really knows.

我們創造了這麼多創造性的債務形式，沒有人真正知道。

How big is that debt.

這筆債務有多大。

And Warren Buffett even called it financial weapons of mass distractions.

而沃倫-巴菲特甚至稱其為大規模分散注意力的金融武器。

It's a ticking bomb when it explodes, it can take down the entire economy.

它是一顆定時炸彈，一旦爆炸，就會拖垮整個經濟。

But why do we use leverage in the first place?

但為什麼我們首先要使用槓桿？

Because leverage turns good deals into great deals.

因為槓桿作用將好的交易變成了偉大的交易。

Imagine you certainly believe that stock is going to rise by 50% the next day.

想象一下，你肯定相信那隻股票第二天會上漲50%。

You can use your $10,000 to buy stock.

你可以用你的10,000美元購買股票。

A and let's assume you're right and the stock price rises by 50%.

A，我們假設你是對的，股票價格上漲了50%。

Congrats, you've made $5,000.

祝賀你，你已經賺了5000美元。

But if you have used leverage, let's say 10-1, you would have purchased $100,000 worth of stock a and would have earned $50,000 after returning the borrowed $90,000 once it rises by 50%.

但如果你使用了槓桿，比方說10-1，你就會購買價值10萬美元的股票，一旦股票上漲50%，在歸還借來的9萬美元后，就會賺到5萬美元。

But that's a simple example because most of the leverage is informed of derivatives.

但這只是一個簡單的例子，因為大部分的槓桿都是通過衍生品告知的。

A derivative is basically a contract between two parties betting on the change of a price of an asset.

衍生品基本上是雙方就某一資產的價格變化進行打賭的合同。

This contract derives its value from underlying assets such as gold.

這種合約的價值來自基礎資產，如黃金。

Oil stocks are pretty much anything, literally anything and that's why it's called a derivative.

石油股幾乎是任何東西，簡直是任何東西，這就是為什麼它被稱為衍生品。

If we bet on the price of the oil for example and create a derivative as the oil price changes due to geopolitical factors, the price of that derivative changes accordingly.

例如，如果我們押注石油價格，並創建一個衍生品，當石油價格因地緣政治因素而變化時，該衍生品的價格也會相應變化。

Let's say your friend wants to sell his Pokemon cards six months from now and you desperately want that cut, you tell your friends I will buy your card for $100.

假設你的朋友想在六個月後賣掉他的口袋妖怪卡，而你急切地想要那份錢，你告訴你的朋友，我將以100美元的價格買下你的卡。

If you promise me that you will sell it only to me.

如果你答應我，你只賣給我。

You create a contract, sign it and congratulate you have created a derivative, but it's not as simple as that because guys in fancy suits in Wall Street have complicated the matter.

你創建一個合同，簽署它，並祝賀你已經創建了一個衍生品，但它並不那麼簡單，因為華爾街那些穿著華麗西裝的人把事情搞得很複雜。

Let's say five month passes and some famous Youtubers start making videos about their Pokemon cards and the price of that document card Shoots $20,000.

假設五個月過去了，一些著名的Youtubers開始製作關於他們的口袋妖怪卡的視頻，並且該文件卡的價格達到了20,000美元。

But he already promised to sell it to you for $100 since you're not sure whether a month from now this card will be valued at $1,000.

但他已經答應以100美元的價格賣給你，因為你不確定一個月後這張卡是否會有1000美元的價值。

You decide to sell your part of the contract to someone who is more desperate for $200.

你決定把你的那部分合同賣給更渴望得到200美元的人。

Now your friend is obligated to sell his card to him Since he has purchased your part of the contract and you earned $200 and that is called a forward contract.

現在你的朋友有義務將他的卡賣給他，因為他已經購買了你的那部分合同，你賺了200美元，這就叫遠期合同。

It's a zero sum game.

這是一個零和遊戲。

Your friend could have earned an extra $900.

你的朋友本可以多賺900美元。

But instead he's stuck in a contract with you to sell it for $100.

但相反，他被困在與你簽訂的合同中，以100美元的價格出售。

That's why we have options.

這就是為什麼我們有選擇。

Your friend will give you $5 when signing the contract for giving him the right to cancel this contract.

你的朋友在簽署合同時，會給你5美元，讓他有權利取消這份合同。

He doesn't have to cancel the contract, but he has the right to exercise that option.

他不一定要取消合同，但他有權利行使這個選擇權。

That's why it's called option.

這就是為什麼它被稱為選項。

Because you have an option.

因為你有一個選擇。

The price of the card rises to $1000.

該卡的價格上升到1000美元。

Your friend cancels the contract with U.

你的朋友取消了與U的合同。

N.

N.

Sells it for $1000 instead of $100 to your.

以1000美元而不是100美元賣給你。

But you have earned at least $5 for taking that risk.

但你冒了這個風險，至少賺了5美元。

But if it doesn't you're still obligated to buy that card for $100.

但如果沒有，你還是有義務購買那張100美元的卡。

That sounds in third.

這聽起來是第三位的。

That's why we have call options.

這就是為什麼我們有看漲期權。

Your friend is obligated to sell the car to you no matter what.

你的朋友無論如何都有義務把車賣給你。

But you have the option to cancel the contract at any moment.

但你可以選擇在任何時候取消合同。

But in return, you have to pay your friend $5 for having that option.

但作為回報，你必須向你的朋友支付5美元，因為他有這種選擇。

Simple.

簡單。

Right?

對嗎？

In order to save time, most derivatives use standardized terms, their coat futures, 587 barrels of oil at $50 per barrel.

為了節省時間，大多數衍生品使用標準化的術語，他們的外套期貨，587桶石油，每桶50美元。

That expires at this stage.

在這個階段，這句話已經過期。

If oil prices rise to $60 your future becomes more valuable and vice versa, oil prices dropped to $40 your future becomes less valuable.

如果油價上漲到60美元，你的未來就會變得更有價值，反之亦然，油價下跌到40美元，你的未來就會變得更沒有價值。

You may wonder why on earth do we have so many complicated contracts?

你可能會問，我們究竟為什麼會有這麼多複雜的合同？

Let's say you run an airline in order to keep your airline profitable, you need to budget and with oil prices jumping every day, you can't do that.

比方說，你經營一家航空公司，為了保持你的航空公司盈利，你需要做預算，而油價每天都在跳躍，你無法做到這一點。

But using options, you can secure the price for an entire year for a little fee.

但是使用期權，你可以用一點費用來保證一整年的價格。

If oil prices rise, they can even make a profit.

如果油價上漲，他們甚至可以賺取利潤。

But that's one use for it.

但這是它的一個用途。

The other is that you can profit by speculating And the best part of it is that you don't even need to have the money to do that since all you need to do is to buy, put options on top of that.

另一個是，你可以通過投機獲利 而最重要的是，你甚至不需要有錢就能做到這一點，因為你所需要做的就是購買，在此基礎上的認沽期權。

This market is not even regulated because of the commodity futures modernization act of 2000 that Bill Clinton signed.

由於比爾-克林頓簽署的2000年商品期貨現代化法案，這個市場甚至沒有受到監管。

That's why this market has grown to 1.2 Quadrillion dollars.

這就是為什麼這個市場已經發展到了1.2 Quadrillion美元。

In comparison the world GDP is just $84 trillion.

相比之下，世界GDP只有84萬億美元。

We can't even regulate the market now because it's simply too big.

我們現在甚至無法監管市場，因為它實在是太大了。

Any regulations could result in the collapse of the world economy.

任何規定都可能導致世界經濟的崩潰。

In fact, the 2008 crash was caused by derivatives, wait a second.

事實上，2008年的崩潰是由衍生品造成的，等一下。

How derivatives caused the 2000 and eight crush.

衍生品是如何造成2000年和8年的崩潰的。

Here is the story.

以下是這個故事。

In short, the fact that millions of people couldn't pay their mortgages was just the tip of the iceberg when giving mortgages, Banks bundled these loans together and sold them as securities to investors, Which is not a problem.

簡而言之，數百萬人無法支付抵押貸款的事實只是給予抵押貸款時的冰山一角，銀行將這些貸款捆綁在一起，作為證券賣給投資者，這不是一個問題。

But then companies like A I.

但後來像A I這樣的公司。

G.

G.

Started betting on these mortgage backed securities, they ensure those securities by creating derivatives that say if the borrowers would default on their mortgages were going to reimburse you, which made these mortgage backed securities risk free.

開始在這些抵押貸款支持的證券上下注，他們通過創造衍生品來確保這些證券，說如果借款人將拖欠他們的抵押貸款就會償還你，這使得這些抵押貸款支持的證券沒有風險。

But in return, you will pay a I.

但作為回報，你將支付一個I。

G.

G.

A small premium for taking that risk.

承擔這種風險的一個小的溢價。

A.

A.

G believed that house prices will keep rising.

G認為，房價將持續上漲。

So it was a great investment.

是以，這是一項偉大的投資。

So A I.

所以阿一。

G, together with other financial institutions, created derivatives, ensuring all other mortgage backed securities in the market.

G和其他金融機構一起創造了衍生品，確保了市場上所有其他抵押貸款支持的證券。

On the other side, there are people who created derivatives that bet against these mortgage backed securities.

在另一邊，有人創造了押注這些抵押貸款支持證券的衍生品。

In fact, there were even derivatives that bet against derivatives that bets for mortgage backed securities, and companies that believe that home prices will keep rising, did accept this contract since they would earn money out of nothing.

事實上，甚至還有押注抵押貸款支持證券的衍生品，那些相信房價會持續上漲的公司，確實接受了這種合同，因為他們會憑空賺錢。

But the moment house prices started declining, financial institutions suddenly had to pay everyone, they promised, but didn't have the money to do that.

但是，當房價開始下降的那一刻，金融機構突然不得不支付給每個人，他們承諾，但沒有錢來做這個。

All the companies that bet against the housing market didn't even need the money to bet against the market.

所有押注房市的公司甚至不需要錢來押注房市。

All they needed is to afford to pay the premiums and they could bet tens of billions of dollars.

他們所需要的只是支付得起保費，他們可以賭上幾百億美元。

And that's the problem with derivatives.

而這正是衍生品的問題所在。

You can make a deal without having the money to back it.

你可以在沒有資金支持的情況下做一筆交易。

And that's what led this market towards 1.2 quadrillion dollars.

而這正是導致這個市場走向1.2萬億美元的原因。

If it collapses, it will get way worse than the 2008 crash since back in 2000 and eight this market was only worth $600 trillion.

如果它崩潰了，它將變得比2008年的崩潰更糟糕，因為早在2000年和8年，這個市場只值600萬億美元。

That's why it's not enough to understand the asset, but you should know how much leverage is used.

這就是為什麼僅僅瞭解資產是不夠的，你還應該知道使用了多少槓桿。

In the case of crypto.

在加密貨幣的情況下。

For example, traders are using up to 100 to 1 leverage ratios, Which means with just $1,000 they're taking positions worth $100,000.

例如，交易者使用高達100比1的槓桿率，這意味著他們只用1,000美元就能持有價值100,000美元的頭寸。

Which means if something slightly goes wrong, the entire thing could collapse.

這意味著如果稍有不慎，整個事情就會崩潰。

No matter how loudly you say the words decentralized, theoretically it could happen but theoretically it might not but if it happens at least you will not freak out because now you know how derivatives work.

不管你說得多大聲，理論上它可能會發生，但理論上它可能不會，但如果它發生了，至少你不會被嚇壞，因為現在你知道衍生品是如何工作的。

If you want to learn more about the stock market, then check out my course and skills share.

如果你想了解更多關於股票市場的資訊，那麼請看我的課程和技能分享。

And don't forget to get your two free stocks from we bought.

不要忘了從我們購買的兩個免費股票中獲得。

Thanks for watching and until next time.

謝謝你的觀看，直到下一次。

Mhm, mm.

Mhm, mm.

Yeah.

是的。