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  • Markets are surging.

  • Optimism is in the air.

  • Trump said he'll delay launching new tariffs on China...

  • and that a trade deal could be close.

  • But will the Chinese Communist Party keep its promises?

  • Welcome back to China Uncensored.

  • I'm Chris Chappell.

  • Optimism is in the air.

  • On Sunday,

  • President Donald Trump made an announcement

  • that could start to scale back the US-China trade war.

  • Trump said...well, tweeted,

  • “I will be delaying the U.S. increase in tariffs

  • now scheduled for March 1.”

  • Back in early December,

  • Trump gave China 90 days to make concessions

  • on issues like unfair trade practices

  • and intellectual property theft.

  • And if no deal could be reached,

  • the US would hit China with a new round of tariffs.

  • Those tariffs would affect 200 billion dollars of Chinese goods.

  • The tariffs are currently at 10 percent,

  • but would go up to 25 percent

  • if no deal is reached by March 1.

  • Except now,

  • Trump has extended that deadline.

  • Adding that,

  • Assuming both sides make additional progress,

  • we will be planning a Summit for President Xi and myself,

  • at Mar-a-Lago, to conclude an agreement.”

  • So they're heading to Trump's golf estate in Florida.

  • I mean, any excuse to get out of Washington.

  • Or maybe it's because Florida is the best place

  • for Xi Jinping to experience American culture.

  • I would know.

  • I was in Florida two years ago for the last meeting.

  • Or maybe Trump just extended the trade agreement deadline

  • while he's meeting with North Korean leader

  • Kim Jong-un this week.

  • After all, the Chinese regime wouldn't want to

  • risk the trade agreement by interfering with that.

  • Regardless, Xi Jinping is extremely happy

  • that Trump has agreed to extend the trade talks.

  • I believe we have footage of his reaction.

  • And the stock market was happy, too.

  • The Dow Jones ticked higher.

  • And former commerce secretary Carlos Gutierrez

  • struck a guardedly optimistic note.

  • “I hope this is for real.

  • I mean the marketplace needs it,

  • the world economy needs it.

  • I can't think of a better piece of news for 2019

  • that the US-China trade war is beginning to tone down.”

  • Even legendary investor Warren Buffet

  • skipped his usual Dairy Queen breakfast

  • to hop over to CNBC studios

  • and weigh in on the news.

  • Negotiations are tough,

  • this is a big deal to both countries,

  • and to some extent you're playing a game of chicken.

  • No idea who was the first to blink, though,

  • since neither Washington nor Beijing

  • provided specific details on who made what concessions.

  • On Friday, Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin

  • who's sitting right here

  • explained that, well, it's complicated.

  • There's hundreds of issues that we're dealing with

  • everything from financial services to currency,

  • to forced technology transfer, to aircraft,

  • to express shipping, to different industries.”

  • We don't have any details yet on

  • every single one of those hundreds of issues.

  • But according to this Bloomberg report,

  • Chinese officials said they would buy

  • an additional 30 billion dollars a year

  • of U.S. agricultural products

  • including soybeans, corn and wheat.”

  • Now according to Bloomberg's sources,

  • those extra purchases would be

  • on top of pre trade war levels.

  • In 2017,

  • China imported a total of $24.2 billion

  • in American agricultural products.

  • Last year, when the trade war started,

  • that slumped to 16 billion.

  • Now if the Bloomberg report is true,

  • it means China promised to buy

  • more than twice as much in agricultural products

  • as before the trade war started.

  • That's absolutely huge!

  • Huge...ly doubtful.

  • Or, as Forbes contributor Kenneth Rapoza put it

  • there is no way China is importing

  • 30 billion dollars more in US farm goods”.

  • That is, unless one of two things happen.

  • OneChina plansto ram food down the throats of its citizens.”

  • Or twoChinaplans to build more silos to store grain

  • (which is already rotting in Chinese silos).”

  • In other words, there is simply not enough

  • market demand in China

  • for all that extra food.

  • Get ready kids, we're going to do some math.

  • This table shows China's agricultural imports from the US.

  • The biggest US import is oilseed crops

  • which is mostly soybeans.

  • In 2017,

  • China imported 13 billion dollars worth from the US.

  • So to make good on its promise to import 30 billion more,

  • Chinese leaders would have to, say,

  • force people start eating four times as much American tofu.

  • Or wear 25 times as much animal hide.

  • Or some weird vegan-carnivore combo of the two.

  • But fundamentally,

  • the problem is that there's not enough demand

  • in the Chinese market for 30 billion dollars more

  • in US agricultural products.

  • So the only way for this to work

  • is for China's central government

  • to step in and control the market

  • which is the very type of economic interference

  • that the US is trying to get them to stop.

  • Of course, there's a third option:

  • Make a promise, and then break it.

  • According to economist Arlan Suderman,

  • China will say what needs to be said to get a deal.”

  • ...suggesting that Chinese leaders will promise anything,

  • no matter how unrealistic,

  • just to buy a bit of time,

  • with no real intention of actually following through.

  • Already there's signs the Chinese side

  • might not follow through on its end of

  • whatever bargain gets made.

  • On Monday,

  • Chinese state run media Xinhua suggested

  • they might go back on the deal,

  • saying thatthe emergence of new uncertainty

  • cannot be ruled out.”

  • Uncertainty like, Xi Jinping had his fingers

  • crossed behind his back the whole time.

  • Maybe that's why,

  • according to multiple insiders,

  • one of the key sticking points in the trade talks

  • is a mechanism to force Chinese authorities

  • to keep their word.

  • Both Reuters and Associated Press reported

  • that American officials have been pressing hard

  • for a strong enforcement mechanism

  • with penalties if the Chinese regime

  • fails to keep its promises.

  • I'm imagining the penalties will be things like,

  • China is grounded from trading for a month,

  • or they're no longer allowed to go to trade prom.

  • Ok, it will actually be something

  • like the US will resume tariffs.

  • And somehow I don't think the Chinese side

  • is going to be enthusiastic about that one.

  • That may be what U.S. Trade Representative

  • Robert Lighthizer was referring to...

  • when he told reporters at the White House that

  • we have a few very,

  • very big hurdles that we still have to face

  • before the deal is sealed.

  • After all, it wouldn't exactly be the first time

  • the Chinese regime has overpromised and underdelivered.

  • Look no further than all the promises they made

  • when they joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.

  • They're still not living up to their commitments

  • like respecting intellectual property,

  • ending state subsidies in key exports,

  • and opening up their markets fairly to foreign companies.

  • So when you're dealing with a regime

  • that's broken commitments on trade

  • again and again for nearly two decades,

  • do you really expect them to suddenly change?

  • Perhaps that's why

  • after striking an optimistic note with Sunday's tweets

  • Trump sounded a bit more guarded on Monday

  • when talking about signing the trade deal.

  • That could happen fairly soon,

  • or it might not happen at all.

  • OK?

  • Might not happen at all,

  • but I think it's going to happen

  • and it could happen fairly soon.”

  • So what do you think of the trade deal?

  • Will the Chinese regime keep its word?

  • Leave your comments below.

  • And while you're still here,

  • it's time for me to answer another question

  • from a fan who supports China Uncensored

  • with a dollar or more per episode

  • through the crowdfunding website Patreon.

  • David Michael White asks:

  • Matt, which part of Sun Tzu's Art of War

  • has been the most helpful for your life so far?”

  • Ugh, a question for my producer Matt.

  • Matt, what part of the Art of War

  • has been most helpful in your life?

  • The section on using spies.

  • Spies must be used to infiltrate any organization.

  • Even China Uncensored.

  • Thanks for your question, David.

  • Uh, thanks for watching China Uncensored.

  • I'm Chris Chappell.

  • See you next time?

Markets are surging.

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    zijun su 發佈於 2021 年 07 月 05 日
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