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  • At the peak of India's second  wave, one person died from 

    在印度第二波浪潮的高峰期,有一個人死於

  • Covid-19 every four minutes in  the country's capital of Delhi.

    在該國首都德里,每四分鐘就有一個Covid-19。

  • Thousands of people were  losing their lives every day

    每天都有數以千計的人失去生命。

  • but a second nationwide  lockdown was nowhere to be seen.

    但第二次全國性的封鎖卻不見蹤影。

  • People have been shaken by the second wave. You can't put it any other way, Timo.

    人們已經被第二波浪潮所震撼了。你不能用其他方式說,蒂莫。

  • It's been devastating on the ground, and emotions are raw.

    當地的情況很糟糕,人們的情緒很激烈。

  • People are hurt. There's anger. There's anguish. There's frustration.

    人們受到了傷害。有憤怒。有苦惱。有挫折感。

  • So why the hesitation to lock the country down? And what does the country need to do to recover?

    那麼,為什麼在鎖定國家方面猶豫不決?而國家需要做什麼來恢復?

  • Before the pandemic, India was one of the fastest growing economies in the world.

    在大流行病發生之前,印度是世界上增長最快的經濟體之一。

  • The country's GDP growth  outpaced the world's since 

    該國的國內生產總值增長超過了世界上的增長,因為

  • the turn of the century, at an  average of 6.6% year-on-year.

    本世紀初,平均每年6.6%。

  • In 2015, it did what other countries couldn't. It overtook China to become the fastest

    2015年,它做到了其他國家無法做到的事情。它超過了中國,成為最快的

  • growing major economy in the world, holding the spot for three years.

    世界上主要經濟體的增長,連續三年保持這一位置。

  • But then India's impressive growth story hit a number of stumbling blocks.

    但隨後印度令人印象深刻的增長故事遇到了一些絆腳石。

  • Hi Tanvir! Hi Timo, great to see you!

    嗨,坦維爾!嗨,蒂莫,很高興見到你!

  • Tanvir is an anchor for CNBC International, and has been covering India for

    Tanvir是CNBC國際頻道的主播,一直在報道印度。

  • 15 years. Yeah, it's been a while.

    15年了。是的,已經有一段時間了。

  • What do you think was the reason behind that growth?

    你認為這種增長背後的原因是什麼?

  • The investment cycle was picking up 

    投資週期正在回升

  • A lot of incentives were given  from a policy perspective

    從政策角度給出了很多激勵措施

  • that helped India grow at a fairly impressive pace but there was the impact of demonetization.

    這幫助印度以相當可觀的速度增長,但也有非貨幣化的影響。

  • India was going through some stress in the financial sector.

    印度正在經歷金融部門的一些壓力。

  • The state-run banks were facing a lot of pressure

    國有銀行正面臨著很大的壓力

  • They were sitting on a huge pile of bad loans, and needed help from the government.

    他們坐在一大堆不良貸款上,需要政府的幫助。

  • There was a particular quarter in 2019, where we saw a low in India's economic cycle.  

    2019年有一個特殊的季度,我們看到印度的經濟週期出現了谷底。

  • But that got fixed.  

    但這已經得到了解決。

  • In an effort to revive the  country's economy, Prime Minister 

    為了振興國家的經濟,總理

  • Narendra Modi's government introduced  several reforms in late 2019.

    納倫德拉-莫迪的政府在2019年底推出了幾項改革。

  • They included cutting corporate  tax rates and speeding 

    它們包括削減公司稅率和加快

  • up the privatisation of  government-owned companies.

    加快政府所有公司的私有化進程。

  • Before they could assess whether these changes were successful,

    在他們能夠評估這些變化是否成功之前。

  • the country recorded its first case of Covid-19 on January 27th, 2020.

    2020年1月27日,該國記錄了第一例Covid-19的病例。

  • By March, cases were rising exponentially, and the country went into a sudden,

    到了3月,病例呈指數級上升,國家突然陷入了困境。

  • strict nationwide lockdown  at the end of the month

    月底在全國範圍內進行嚴格的封鎖。

  • four hours after Modi's announcement.

    在莫迪宣佈後四小時。

  • It brought the economy to a standstill.

    它使經濟陷入停滯。

  • It took a good three to four months for the economy to bounce back.

    花了三到四個月的時間,經濟才有所反彈。

  • The second impact was on migrant workers.

    第二個影響是對移民工人的影響。

  • India faced a crisis among migrant workers  because overnight they lost their livelihoods.

    印度面臨著移民工人的危機,因為一夜之間他們失去了生計。

  • Overnight, they were displaced, and so they had to go back to their homes

    一夜之間,他們流離失所,所以他們不得不回到自己的家。

  • in rural India and for them to come back to their jobs also took a while.

    在印度農村,要讓他們回到工作崗位上也需要一段時間。

  • So yes, the impact on the economy was devastating.

    是以,是的,對經濟的影響是破壞性的。

  • The country's GDP shrank byrecord 24% between April and June,the first time the Indian economy had 

    該國的國內生產總值在4月至6月期間創紀錄地縮減了24%,這是印度經濟首次出現縮減。

  • contracted since it started  reporting this data in 1996.

    自1996年開始報告這一數據以來,該公司已經收縮了。

  • India's economy then began showing signs of a V-shaped recovery,

    隨後,印度的經濟開始出現V型復甦的跡象。

  • contracting by a less dramatic 7.5% between July and September.

    在7月和9月之間,收縮了7.5%,不那麼引人注目。

  • And despite GDP shrinking by eight percent overall in 2020,

    而儘管2020年國內生產總值總體上縮減了8%。

  • the International Monetary Fund projected growth of 12.5 percent in 2021.

    國際貨幣基金組織預測2021年的增長率為12.5%。

  • It was the V-shaped recovery everybody was talking about, right?

    這就是大家都在談論的V型復甦,對嗎?

  • We've seen that play out in the U.S. and in the United Kingdom,  and that was a story in India as well.

    我們已經看到這種情況在美國和英國發生了,在印度也是如此。

  • When the country reopened in the autumn of 2020,  Prime Minister Modi declared that India,

    當國家在2020年秋季重新開放時,莫迪總理宣佈,印度。

  • the world's largest vaccine manufacturer, would be used to help 'all humanity'.

    世界上最大的疫苗製造商,將被用來幫助 "全人類"。

  • With the economy on the rebound and Covid cases seemingly under control, optimism was at a high.

    隨著經濟的回升和Covid案件似乎得到控制,樂觀情緒高漲。

  • India had a great festive season last year between October to December.

    去年10月至12月期間,印度有一個很好的節慶季節。

  • People were having big weddings, people were travelling all over India,

    人們在舉行盛大的婚禮,人們在印度各地旅行。

  • through the course of December and January.

    在12月和1月的過程中。

  • And through that period by the way, the first wave had peaked, and the case count was really down.

    順便說一下,通過那個時期,第一波已經達到了頂峰,案件數量確實在下降。

  • Why was transmission so much faster, so much deadlier in Spring 2021 than it was  in the first wave?

    為什麼2021年春季的傳輸速度如此之快,比第一波的傳輸更致命?

  • It was complacencyat every level.

    這是自滿,在每個層面上都是如此。

  • By mid-March 2021, cases began to rise exponentially.

    到2021年3月中旬,案件開始成倍增加。

  • At the heart of the surge was the B1617 variantbelieved to be more contagious than the original virus.

    疫情激增的核心是B1617變體,據信它比原始病毒更具傳染性。

  • I'm sure when it's part of your main job to cover India,

    我相信當你的主要工作之一是報道印度。

  • Waking up everyday to hear new reports, to hear the new death toll, how is that?

    每天醒來聽到新的報告,聽到新的死亡人數,這怎麼行?

  • Very very painful, and

    非常非常痛苦,而且

  • I have family back in India. My friends are back in India.

    我有家人在印度。我的朋友們都回到了印度。

  • It's not just about the numbers out there, or how widespread and how the bad situation is,

    這不僅僅是關於外面的數字,或者是多麼廣泛和多麼糟糕的情況。

  • It's about how much people are going through at an emotional level.

    這是關於人們在情感層面上經歷了多少事情。

  • The government avoided imposing a second nationwide lockdown, however,

    然而,政府避免了實施第二次全國性的封鎖。

  • to avoid the humanitarian crisis and economic impact brought on by the first.

    以避免第一種情況帶來的人道主義危機和經濟影響。

  • Rather, the country is enacting local lockdowns as a last resort in areas hit the hardest,

    相反,該國正在制定地方封鎖措施,作為受打擊最嚴重的地區的最後手段。

  • and is relying on vaccinations to protect its people and its economy.

    並正在依靠疫苗接種來保護其人民和經濟。

  • Modi ramped up production of vaccines in March, and halted exports to prioritize domestic doses.

    莫迪在3月份加大了疫苗的生產力度,並停止了出口以優先考慮國內劑量。

  • India has two major vaccine manufacturers. One is the Serum Institute's Covishield,

    印度有兩個主要的疫苗製造商。一個是血清研究所的Covishield公司。

  • which is based on AstraZeneca, and one is Bharat Biotech's Covaxin, which is  the local vaccine.

    這是以阿斯利康為基礎的,一個是巴拉特生物技術公司的Covaxin,這是當地的疫苗。

  • By the time we ended 2020,  there was this expectationthere would be enough supply for India.

    到2020年結束的時候,有這樣的期望,對印度來說會有足夠的供應。

  • There was this need to help other countries  that were in a more dire situation.

    有這種需要來幫助其他處於更嚴峻形勢的國家。

  • That calculation misfired.

    這個計算結果是錯誤的。

  • I've been speaking to a lot of medical experts and specialists in India over the course of the last few weeks,

    在過去的幾周裡,我一直在與印度的很多醫學專家和專家交談。

  • and they're telling me that it's a matter of time that shortfall will be corrected.

    而且他們告訴我,這個缺口遲早會被糾正的。

  • The healthcare system did get overwhelmed quite quickly.

    醫療保健系統確實很快就不堪重負了。

  • When I speak to doctors, they tell me that a national taskforce has been set up

    當我與醫生交談時,他們告訴我,已經成立了一個國家工作隊

  • by the Supreme Court to understand and fix the problem.

    由最高法院來理解和解決這個問題。

  • At every level,  

    在每個層面上。

  • the effort was to set things right. It took a while and was very painful.

    我們的努力是要把事情糾正過來。這需要一段時間,而且非常痛苦。

  • The World Economic Forum has also recommended a revamp in

    世界經濟論壇還建議在以下方面進行改革

  • Indian cities' data collection and communication channels.

    印度城市的數據收集和溝通管道。

  • During the outbreak, officials spent days trying to get basic data on bed availability

    在疫情爆發期間,官員們花了好幾天時間試圖獲得有關床位供應的基本數據

  • and facility locations, and information on cluster outbreaks and deaths was unreliable.

    和設施的位置,而關於集群爆發和死亡的資訊是不可靠的。

  • WEF says plugging these knowledge gaps, particularly in public health, transportation

    世界經濟論壇表示,填補這些知識空白,特別是在公共衛生、交通、教育、醫療等領域。

  • and the protection of migrants will be crucial to getting the virus under control.

    以及對移民的保護將是控制該病毒的關鍵。

  • Cities are expected to account for 70% of India's economic recovery, making them critical  to the nation's comeback.

    城市預計將佔到印度經濟復甦的70%,這使得城市對國家的復甦至關重要。

  • And despite the tough road ahead,  Tanvir tells me people and businesses on the ground  are already adapting to a new normal.

    儘管前路艱難,但坦維爾告訴我,當地的人們和企業已經在適應新的常態。

  • The long term is still very promising for India. Hopefully with vaccinations, with more anti-bodies being present in people at large,

    從長遠來看,印度還是很有希望的。希望隨著疫苗接種,隨著更多的抗體出現在廣大人民民眾中。

  • and the situation right now, with the proper precautionary measures being put in place,

    和現在的情況,採取適當的預防措施,將其落實到位。

  • proper restrictions being put in place, the situation could be better.

    如果有適當的限制,情況可能會更好。

  • Thank you all so much for watching our video! How are things where you are?

    非常感謝大家觀看我們的視頻!你所在的地方情況如何?

  • Comment below and don't forget to subscribe!

    請在下面評論,別忘了訂閱!

At the peak of India's second  wave, one person died from 

在印度第二波浪潮的高峰期,有一個人死於

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印度的下一步是什麼?| CNBC解讀 (What’s next for India? | CNBC Explains)

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    Summer 發佈於 2021 年 06 月 04 日
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