Covid-19 every four minutes in  the country's capital of Delhi.

在該國首都德里，每四分鐘就有一個Covid-19。

Thousands of people were  losing their lives every day, 

每天都有數以千計的人失去生命。

but a second nationwide  lockdown was nowhere to be seen.

但第二次全國性的封鎖卻不見蹤影。

People have been shaken by the second wave. You can't put it any other way, Timo.

人們已經被第二波浪潮所震撼了。你不能用其他方式說，蒂莫。

It's been devastating on the ground, and emotions are raw.

當地的情況很糟糕，人們的情緒很激烈。

People are hurt. There's anger. There's anguish. There's frustration.

人們受到了傷害。有憤怒。有苦惱。有挫折感。

So why the hesitation to lock the country down? And what does the country need to do to recover?

那麼，為什麼在鎖定國家方面猶豫不決？而國家需要做什麼來恢復？

Before the pandemic, India was one of the fastest growing economies in the world.

在大流行病發生之前，印度是世界上增長最快的經濟體之一。

The country's GDP growth  outpaced the world's since 

該國的國內生產總值增長超過了世界上的增長，因為

the turn of the century, at an  average of 6.6% year-on-year.

本世紀初，平均每年6.6%。

In 2015, it did what other countries couldn't. It overtook China to become the fastest

2015年，它做到了其他國家無法做到的事情。它超過了中國，成為最快的

growing major economy in the world, holding the spot for three years.

世界上主要經濟體的增長，連續三年保持這一位置。

But then India's impressive growth story hit a number of stumbling blocks.

但隨後印度令人印象深刻的增長故事遇到了一些絆腳石。

Hi Tanvir! Hi Timo, great to see you!

嗨，坦維爾!嗨，蒂莫，很高興見到你!

Tanvir is an anchor for CNBC International, and has been covering India for

Tanvir是CNBC國際頻道的主播，一直在報道印度。

15 years. Yeah, it's been a while.

15年了。是的，已經有一段時間了。

What do you think was the reason behind that growth?

你認為這種增長背後的原因是什麼？

The investment cycle was picking up 

投資週期正在回升

A lot of incentives were given  from a policy perspective

從政策角度給出了很多激勵措施

that helped India grow at a fairly impressive pace but there was the impact of demonetization.

這幫助印度以相當可觀的速度增長，但也有非貨幣化的影響。

India was going through some stress in the financial sector.

印度正在經歷金融部門的一些壓力。

The state-run banks were facing a lot of pressure

國有銀行正面臨著很大的壓力

They were sitting on a huge pile of bad loans, and needed help from the government.

他們坐在一大堆不良貸款上，需要政府的幫助。

There was a particular quarter in 2019, where we saw a low in India's economic cycle.  

2019年有一個特殊的季度，我們看到印度的經濟週期出現了谷底。

But that got fixed.  

但這已經得到了解決。

In an effort to revive the  country's economy, Prime Minister 

為了振興國家的經濟，總理

Narendra Modi's government introduced  several reforms in late 2019.

納倫德拉-莫迪的政府在2019年底推出了幾項改革。

They included cutting corporate  tax rates and speeding 

它們包括削減公司稅率和加快

up the privatisation of  government-owned companies.

加快政府所有公司的私有化進程。

Before they could assess whether these changes were successful,

在他們能夠評估這些變化是否成功之前。

the country recorded its first case of Covid-19 on January 27th, 2020.

2020年1月27日，該國記錄了第一例Covid-19的病例。

By March, cases were rising exponentially, and the country went into a sudden,

到了3月，病例呈指數級上升，國家突然陷入了困境。

strict nationwide lockdown  at the end of the month, 

月底在全國範圍內進行嚴格的封鎖。

four hours after Modi's announcement.

在莫迪宣佈後四小時。

It brought the economy to a standstill.

它使經濟陷入停滯。

It took a good three to four months for the economy to bounce back.

花了三到四個月的時間，經濟才有所反彈。

The second impact was on migrant workers.

第二個影響是對移民工人的影響。

India faced a crisis among migrant workers  because overnight they lost their livelihoods.

印度面臨著移民工人的危機，因為一夜之間他們失去了生計。

Overnight, they were displaced, and so they had to go back to their homes

一夜之間，他們流離失所，所以他們不得不回到自己的家。

in rural India and for them to come back to their jobs also took a while.

在印度農村，要讓他們回到工作崗位上也需要一段時間。

So yes, the impact on the economy was devastating.

是以，是的，對經濟的影響是破壞性的。

The country's GDP shrank by a record 24% between April and June,the first time the Indian economy had 

該國的國內生產總值在4月至6月期間創紀錄地縮減了24%，這是印度經濟首次出現縮減。

contracted since it started  reporting this data in 1996.

自1996年開始報告這一數據以來，該公司已經收縮了。

India's economy then began showing signs of a V-shaped recovery,

隨後，印度的經濟開始出現V型復甦的跡象。

contracting by a less dramatic 7.5% between July and September.

在7月和9月之間，收縮了7.5%，不那麼引人注目。

And despite GDP shrinking by eight percent overall in 2020,

而儘管2020年國內生產總值總體上縮減了8%。

the International Monetary Fund projected growth of 12.5 percent in 2021.

國際貨幣基金組織預測2021年的增長率為12.5%。

It was the V-shaped recovery everybody was talking about, right?

這就是大家都在談論的V型復甦，對嗎？

We've seen that play out in the U.S. and in the United Kingdom,  and that was a story in India as well.

我們已經看到這種情況在美國和英國發生了，在印度也是如此。

When the country reopened in the autumn of 2020,  Prime Minister Modi declared that India,

當國家在2020年秋季重新開放時，莫迪總理宣佈，印度。

the world's largest vaccine manufacturer, would be used to help 'all humanity'.

世界上最大的疫苗製造商，將被用來幫助 "全人類"。

With the economy on the rebound and Covid cases seemingly under control, optimism was at a high.

隨著經濟的回升和Covid案件似乎得到控制，樂觀情緒高漲。

India had a great festive season last year between October to December.

去年10月至12月期間，印度有一個很好的節慶季節。

People were having big weddings, people were travelling all over India,

人們在舉行盛大的婚禮，人們在印度各地旅行。

through the course of December and January.

在12月和1月的過程中。

And through that period by the way, the first wave had peaked, and the case count was really down.

順便說一下，通過那個時期，第一波已經達到了頂峰，案件數量確實在下降。

Why was transmission so much faster, so much deadlier in Spring 2021 than it was  in the first wave?

為什麼2021年春季的傳輸速度如此之快，比第一波的傳輸更致命？

It was complacency, at every level.

這是自滿，在每個層面上都是如此。

By mid-March 2021, cases began to rise exponentially.

到2021年3月中旬，案件開始成倍增加。

At the heart of the surge was the B1617 variant,  believed to be more contagious than the original virus.

疫情激增的核心是B1617變體，據信它比原始病毒更具傳染性。

I'm sure when it's part of your main job to cover India,

我相信當你的主要工作之一是報道印度。

Waking up everyday to hear new reports, to hear the new death toll, how is that?

每天醒來聽到新的報告，聽到新的死亡人數，這怎麼行？

Very very painful, and

非常非常痛苦，而且

I have family back in India. My friends are back in India.

我有家人在印度。我的朋友們都回到了印度。

It's not just about the numbers out there, or how widespread and how the bad situation is,

這不僅僅是關於外面的數字，或者是多麼廣泛和多麼糟糕的情況。

It's about how much people are going through at an emotional level.

這是關於人們在情感層面上經歷了多少事情。

The government avoided imposing a second nationwide lockdown, however,

然而，政府避免了實施第二次全國性的封鎖。

to avoid the humanitarian crisis and economic impact brought on by the first.

以避免第一種情況帶來的人道主義危機和經濟影響。

Rather, the country is enacting local lockdowns as a last resort in areas hit the hardest,

相反，該國正在制定地方封鎖措施，作為受打擊最嚴重的地區的最後手段。

and is relying on vaccinations to protect its people and its economy.

並正在依靠疫苗接種來保護其人民和經濟。

Modi ramped up production of vaccines in March, and halted exports to prioritize domestic doses.

莫迪在3月份加大了疫苗的生產力度，並停止了出口以優先考慮國內劑量。

India has two major vaccine manufacturers. One is the Serum Institute's Covishield,

印度有兩個主要的疫苗製造商。一個是血清研究所的Covishield公司。

which is based on AstraZeneca, and one is Bharat Biotech's Covaxin, which is  the local vaccine.

這是以阿斯利康為基礎的，一個是巴拉特生物技術公司的Covaxin，這是當地的疫苗。

By the time we ended 2020,  there was this expectation, there would be enough supply for India.

到2020年結束的時候，有這樣的期望，對印度來說會有足夠的供應。

There was this need to help other countries  that were in a more dire situation.

有這種需要來幫助其他處於更嚴峻形勢的國家。

That calculation misfired.

這個計算結果是錯誤的。

I've been speaking to a lot of medical experts and specialists in India over the course of the last few weeks,

在過去的幾周裡，我一直在與印度的很多醫學專家和專家交談。

and they're telling me that it's a matter of time that shortfall will be corrected.

而且他們告訴我，這個缺口遲早會被糾正的。

The healthcare system did get overwhelmed quite quickly.

醫療保健系統確實很快就不堪重負了。

When I speak to doctors, they tell me that a national taskforce has been set up

當我與醫生交談時，他們告訴我，已經成立了一個國家工作隊

by the Supreme Court to understand and fix the problem.

由最高法院來理解和解決這個問題。

At every level,  

在每個層面上。

the effort was to set things right. It took a while and was very painful.

我們的努力是要把事情糾正過來。這需要一段時間，而且非常痛苦。

The World Economic Forum has also recommended a revamp in

世界經濟論壇還建議在以下方面進行改革

Indian cities' data collection and communication channels.

印度城市的數據收集和溝通管道。

During the outbreak, officials spent days trying to get basic data on bed availability

在疫情爆發期間，官員們花了好幾天時間試圖獲得有關床位供應的基本數據

and facility locations, and information on cluster outbreaks and deaths was unreliable.

和設施的位置，而關於集群爆發和死亡的資訊是不可靠的。

WEF says plugging these knowledge gaps, particularly in public health, transportation

世界經濟論壇表示，填補這些知識空白，特別是在公共衛生、交通、教育、醫療等領域。

and the protection of migrants will be crucial to getting the virus under control.

以及對移民的保護將是控制該病毒的關鍵。

Cities are expected to account for 70% of India's economic recovery, making them critical  to the nation's comeback.

城市預計將佔到印度經濟復甦的70%，這使得城市對國家的復甦至關重要。

And despite the tough road ahead,  Tanvir tells me people and businesses on the ground  are already adapting to a new normal.

儘管前路艱難，但坦維爾告訴我，當地的人們和企業已經在適應新的常態。

The long term is still very promising for India. Hopefully with vaccinations, with more anti-bodies being present in people at large,

從長遠來看，印度還是很有希望的。希望隨著疫苗接種，隨著更多的抗體出現在廣大人民民眾中。

and the situation right now, with the proper precautionary measures being put in place,

和現在的情況，採取適當的預防措施，將其落實到位。

proper restrictions being put in place, the situation could be better.

如果有適當的限制，情況可能會更好。

Thank you all so much for watching our video! How are things where you are?

非常感謝大家觀看我們的視頻!你所在的地方情況如何？

Comment below and don't forget to subscribe!

請在下面評論，別忘了訂閱!