Guangzhou China

中國廣州

Ralph how are you, thanks for joining us on CNBC s Beyond the Valley.

拉爾夫，你好，感謝你參加CNBC的《超越山谷》節目。

RALPH: Happy to be with you.

RALPH：很高興和你在一起。

ARJ Q1: So let's kick off the conversation.

ARJ Q1：那麼讓我們開始對話吧。

In a recent report, you guys noted that the electric vehicle market will start rapidly

在最近的一份報告中，你們指出，電動汽車市場將迅速開始

scaling around the year 2024.

在2024年左右擴大規模。

So what's happening now and until then, what's going to be driving that?

那麼，現在和在此之前發生的事情，將是什麼在推動？

RALPH A1: now a lot of plans that have been issued, the years before are materializing.

RALPH A1：現在很多已經發布的計劃，前幾年都在實現。

The products are coming to the market.

產品正在進入市場。

is the number of vehicles electric vehicles, which are available for customers are quickly

是電動汽車的數量，可供客戶快速使用。

racing in between 2022 and 2025, from 100 to 200.

在2022年和2025年之間的賽車，從100到200。

And there are more plans to come.

而且還有更多的計劃即將出臺。

And we see that also on the very top.

而我們在最上面也看到了這一點。

Mercedes, for example, just launched the EQ s, the electric s class we saw from Porsche

例如，奔馳剛剛推出了EQ s，即我們從保時捷那裡看到的電動S級。

they take on Audi is launching.

他們對奧迪採取的是推出。

So as cars, GM is coming.

所以作為汽車，通用汽車來了。

The Japanese Nissan is strengthening their plans, Toyota is doing a lot QIA has introduced

日本的日產公司正在加強他們的計劃，豐田公司正在做很多事情，QIA已經推出了

an entire verity of electric cars.

一個完整的電動汽車品種。

Car producers, car manufacturers, you have now a bundle of different cars to be purchased.

汽車生產商，汽車製造商，你現在有一捆不同的汽車需要購買。

So that we have, let's say, first time, a situation where we are not just discussing

是以，我們有，讓我們說，第一次，一個情況，我們不只是在討論

electromobility.

電動汽車。

it is reality.

這就是現實。

ARJ Q2: And are consumers ready for electric vehicles at this point, and has the COVID

ARJ Q2：消費者此時是否已經為電動汽車做好準備，COVID是否已經準備好了？

pandemic accelerated that in any way?

大流行病是否以任何方式加速了這一點？

RALPH A2: Yeah, we do believe they are ready.

RALPH A2：是的，我們確實相信他們已經準備好了。

in the beginning, there was a lot of uncertainty in terms of mileage, of battery costs, recycling

一開始，在里程數、電池成本、回收方面有很多不確定性。

topics, charging, etc.

主題、充電等。

It's getting now more and more clear to customers how to deal with these things, we see that

現在客戶越來越清楚如何處理這些事情了，我們看到

leverage ranges 300 to 400 kilometers, you can drive those cars with a high level of

槓桿範圍為300至400公里，你可以駕駛這些汽車，並具有很高的水準。

reliability, you can charge them, it's not a significant problem anymore.

可靠性，你可以向他們收費，這已經不是一個重大問題了。

And we see that during the COVID pandemic, there was a lot of stimulation programs being

我們看到，在COVID大流行期間，有很多刺激性項目正在進行中

issued by different governments, for example, in Europe, if you take Germany, it's 10 or

由不同的政府發行，例如，在歐洲，如果你以德國為例，它是10或

more 1000 euros, direct subsidization for purchasing an electric car and hybrid plug

超過1000歐元，對購買電動車和混合動力車的直接補貼

in hybrid.

在混合型。

So that this is a simulation, for sure.

是以，這是一個模擬，是肯定的。

And this is helping the car manufacturers introduce those electric cars, despite the

而這正幫助汽車製造商推出那些電動汽車，儘管

fact that the cost for those cars are still higher than for producing combustion engine

事實上，這些汽車的成本仍然高於生產內燃機的成本。

cars.

汽車。

ARJ Q3: Let's talk about the position of traditional automakers in this market at the moment, because

ARJ Q3：讓我們來談談目前傳統汽車製造商在這個市場的地位，因為

one thing we have seen is a number of technology companies jump into the electric vehicle market

我們看到的一件事是一些技術公司跳入電動汽車市場。

in the smart car market, or should the automakers the traditional automakers be worried?

在智能汽車市場上，汽車製造商和傳統汽車製造商是否應該擔心？

RALPH A3: if a fundamental transformation is happening, this is less not less than a

RALPH A3：如果發生了根本性的轉變，這是少不更事的。

disruption to the industry, which has been in stability for 100 plus years.

對這個已經穩定了100多年的行業造成了破壞。

You need to be careful.

你需要小心。

And for the moment, we do believe that traditional automakers have understood that they need

而就目前而言，我們確實認為傳統的汽車製造商已經明白，他們需要

to change and transforms themselves fundamentally.

以改變和從根本上改變自己。

Volkswagen, for example, they have separated the abilities of software competence center,

例如，大眾汽車公司，他們已經將軟件能力中心的能力分開。

they've separated it, they are aiming for 10,000 software engineers.

他們已經分開了，他們的目標是10000名軟件工程師。

They have introduced plans to build a range of six battery factories across the world,

他們已經推出計劃，在全球範圍內建立一系列六家電池工廠。

etc.

等。

So they have understood what does it take to really be successful and come up with totally

是以，他們已經理解了什麼是真正的成功，並提出了完全的

independent electric vehicle architectures for those new cars.

這些新車的獨立電動汽車架構。

It's not compromise.

這不是妥協。

So put all in and have sent finally something.

是以，把所有的東西都放進去，並有發送終於有東西了。

They have learned their lessons they have understood, what does it take, and they can

他們已經學會了他們的教訓，他們已經明白，需要什麼，他們可以

now play their strengths.

現在發揮他們的長處。

And their fundamental strengths are they have a big customer base, they have a solid, aftermarket

他們的基本優勢是他們有一個大的客戶群，他們有一個堅實的售後市場。

business contributing cash wise, they have access to a lot of customers effort, they

他們有機會接觸到大量的客戶，他們有機會接觸到現金。

have a brand which normally gives them reputation in front of customers, they have a financing

有一個品牌，這通常使他們在客戶面前獲得聲譽，他們有一個融資

branch, which allows them to make, let's say, cost affordable by putting together the right

分支機構，這使他們能夠通過把合適的

deals.

交易。

So there is a lot on the other end, there's heritage, there's a lot of infrastructure

是以，在另一端有很多東西，有遺產，有很多的基礎設施

plants, you may not need it in the future anymore.

植物，你將來可能不再需要它了。

So this is a challenge for them.

所以這對他們來說是一個挑戰。

ARJ Q5: Let's talk a bit about electric vehicle adoption, what would you say are the biggest

ARJ問5：讓我們來談談電動汽車的採用，你認為最大的問題是什麼？

challenges at this point to electric vehicle adoption.

在這一點上，電動汽車的採用面臨著挑戰。

RALPH A5: And we see that they are out of the studies we made is four or five criteria

RALPH A5：我們看到，他們在我們所做的研究中是四或五個標準

that drives customer decisions.

促使客戶作出決定。

First, it's uncertainty about, let's say the reliability and let's say usability of those

首先，它是不確定的，比方說這些的可靠性和比方說可用性

cars.

汽車。

I think you said it earlier as this could be solved or is already solved as a problem.

我想你之前說過，這可以作為一個問題來解決，或者已經解決了。

Second is charging.

第二是充電。

So he says sufficient opportunity to charge my car in my surrounding in my environment.

所以他說有足夠的機會在我周圍的環境中為我的汽車充電。

So governments and industry have understood that they need to speed up and ramp it up

是以，政府和工業界已經明白，他們需要加快和提高它的速度

quickly and initiatives are underway.

迅速，並正在採取舉措。

So we do not see that this is on the long run.

是以，我們沒有看到這是在長期的。

Because significant hurdle.

因為重大的障礙。

So that is the cost of cars compared to traditional offers.

是以，這就是與傳統報價相比，汽車的成本。

So as I said earlier, as your subsidy programs in place, making up let's say for the price

是以，正如我先前所說，由於你的補貼項目已經到位，彌補了讓我們說的價格

difference, you normally have those This is for the moment, not a big deal.

差異，你通常有那些 這是暫時的，不是一個大問題。

And behind this price difference, the major impact is created by battery cost.

而在這種價格差異的背後，主要影響是由電池成本造成的。

And we see that cost of batteries are coming down very quickly.

而且我們看到，電池的成本正在迅速下降。

And the concepts of let's say, putting, let's say the right size of battery in the cars

比方說，把合適大小的電池放在汽車裡的概念。

is advancing so that we see that in 2425, there will be a cost parity.

正在推進，以便我們看到，在2425年，將有一個成本平價。

And finally, it's a cost of ownership.

最後，這是一個所有權成本。

And there we also see that, let's say electric cars impacted by the cost of purchasing the

在這裡我們也看到，比方說電動汽車受到購買成本的影響。

car, make up and finally it would be in favor of electric cars and there's Also, let's say

汽車，組成，最後它將支持電動汽車，還有，讓我們說說

from governments, co2 fines, etc, the taxation of combustion engines is handled in a way

從政府、二氧化碳罰款等方面來看，對內燃機的徵稅是以一種方式處理的

that it's getting more expensive.

那就是越來越貴了。

a lot of arguments are playing in favor of EVs.

很多論點都在支持電動車。

ARJ Q6: Let's talk a little bit or look a little bit further into the future and talk

ARJ問6：讓我們談一談，或者說把眼光放遠一點，談一談未來。

about autonomous driving, because this, of course, is something that the automakers are

關於自動駕駛，因為這當然是汽車製造商正在進行的事情。

getting very excited about.

變得非常興奮。

But there's also a discrepancy in terms of which markets are ahead in the development

但是，在哪些市場的發展領先方面也存在著差異

of that, you know, we know the US is pushing quite aggressively in this area in China,

你知道，我們知道美國正在相當積極地在中國推動這一領域的工作。

of course, as well.

當然，也是如此。

But you know, mass adoption of autonomous driving still feels like a long way off.

但是你知道，大規模採用自動駕駛仍然感覺是一個漫長的過程。

I mean, in your view, what are the steps to get there, and how far off might we be?

我的意思是，在你看來，有哪些步驟可以達到這個目標，我們可能還差多遠？

RALPH A6: First, we also thought that autonomous driving would come much earlier, because we

RALPH A6：首先，我們也認為自動駕駛會更早到來，因為我們

underestimated the complexity of this technology.

低估了這項技術的複雜性。

And it is not about making a car and driving straight in an autonomous mode on motorways,

而且，這並不是要製造一輛汽車並在高速公路上以自主模式直接行駛。

without cross traffic.

沒有交叉交通。

The problem is coming if you have free flow system, in a in a crowded city, for example,

如果你有自由流動的系統，例如在一個擁擠的城市裡，問題就來了。

with a lot of unexpected events happening.

有很多意外事件發生。

So this was underestimated.

所以這被低估了。

And there's consensus in the industry, that in such situations, we will be able from maybe

業界有一個共識，即在這種情況下，我們將能夠從也許

2028 onwards, to have this technology in an affordable way.

2028年以後，要以可負擔得起的方式擁有這項技術。

the different story is Robo caps, where you have, let's say, an autonomous driving mode

不同的故事是機器人帽，在那裡你有，比方說，一個自動駕駛模式

in a fenced and defined area so that you can make it part of a public transportation system

在一個有圍欄和規定的區域，這樣你就可以把它作為公共交通系統的一部分。

in the city etc.

在城市等。

And not just for people but also for for goods delivery.

不僅僅是為人，也為貨物運送。

And we do believe that because technological challenges, not as high as in this free flow

我們確實相信，因為技術挑戰，並不像在這個自由流動中那麼高。

mode.

模式。

And the regulator situation is a different one, this can come earlier.

而監管機構的情況是不同的，這可以更早的到來。

And say we see that up to mid of this tick 2025, we will have, let's say situations,

說我們看到，到2025年的中期，我們將有，比方說情況。

especially in China, where you have, let's say the government driving this and pushing

特別是在中國，你有，比方說，政府推動這個和推動

this significantly.

這一點很重要。

Then we will see and certain areas in US because regulatory situations are different to European

然後，我們將看到美國的某些地區，因為監管情況與歐洲不同。

Union and European Union will be quite often a bit behind because complexity of regulation

由於監管的複雜性，聯盟和歐盟往往會有點落後。

is higher than in other areas, because we need to link, let's say the cross country

比其他領域要高，因為我們需要連接，比方說越野車。

traffic, also in an autonomous way.

交通，也是以一種自主的方式。

And there you have, let's say was 28 European countries a different situation.

而你有，讓我們說是28個歐洲國家的不同情況。

ARJ Q7: Now, Ralph, if you then looked on a global landscape about electric vehicles,

ARJ問7：現在，拉爾夫，如果你再看看關於電動車的全球景觀。

and you were to use a metaphor of a race to electric vehicle adoption, between the US

如果你用一個比喻來形容美國和日本之間的電動汽車採用競賽，那麼你就會發現，美國和日本之間的電動汽車採用競賽是非常激烈的。

between Europe and China, I mean, who's ahead right now, then who's going to win?

在歐洲和中國之間，我的意思是，現在誰領先，那麼誰就會贏？

RALPH A7: We have a bit different perspective.

RALPH A7：我們有一點不同的觀點。

It is not, let's say having a complete country, being front running or running behind, we

這不是說，讓我們擁有一個完整的國家，在前面跑或在後面跑，我們

have a situation where we need to compare urban areas, for example, New York can be

有一種情況是，我們需要比較城市地區，例如，紐約可以是

compared to Shanghai.

與上海相比。

Because the problems everywhere is the same.

因為各地的問題都是一樣的。

So we see that from an regulatory aspect.

是以，我們從監管方面看到了這一點。

The government need to influence mobility in a way that there's no traffic collapse

政府需要以一種沒有交通崩潰的方式來影響流動性。

happening and you need to come up with different solutions for public transportation systems

發生，你需要為公共交通系統想出不同的解決方案

etc.

等。

Despite this, China in the in the urban dense areas will be first in us and then we have

儘管如此，中國在城市密集區將首先在我們，然後我們有

in Europe or certain areas like Amsterdam, we have let's say half of The population of

在歐洲或某些地區，如阿姆斯特丹，我們有一半的人口

the Netherlands commuting around this area or Berlin or something Paris, London has those

荷蘭人在這一地區或柏林或其他地方通勤，巴黎、倫敦都有這些情況。

big areas.

大的領域。

And then you have, let's say the more rural areas, we will see compression engines, quite

然後你有，比方說更多的農村地區，我們將看到壓縮引擎，相當的

long as it's the same in China, we will see that in India, Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai,

只要在中國是一樣的，我們就會在印度看到，德里、孟買、班加羅爾、欽奈。

etc will have a significant level of electric mobility, but the rest of India will be still

等地將有相當水準的電動汽車，但印度其他地區仍將是

on combustion engines.

在內燃機上。

ARJ: Ralph, great conversation.

ARJ：拉爾夫，偉大的對話。

Thanks so much for joining me.

非常感謝你加入我。

RALPH: Appreciate.

RALPH: 欣賞。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

ARJUN LINKS 2

ARJUN LINKS 2

ARJUN: Let s just turn our attention to China I m pleased to introduce brian Gu, whos the

ARJUN：讓我們把注意力轉移到中國，我很高興地介紹Brian Gu，他是中國的一個重要人物。

president of the company.

該公司的總裁。

Good to see you

很高興見到你

Brian how are you?

布萊恩你好嗎？

GUEST 2- Brian Gu

嘉賓 2- 顧博文

BRIAN: Great to see you Arjun

很高興見到你，阿瓊

ARJUN: So let's kick off the conversation.

ARJUN：所以讓我們開始對話。

Of course with the China market.

當然，隨著中國市場的發展。

This is where you're operating quite heavily So, as you look forward now, and what we've

這是你操作相當嚴重的地方 所以，當你現在向前看時，以及我們已經

seen the start of 2021, what's your outlook for the China market over the coming years?

看到2021年的開始，你對未來幾年的中國市場有什麼展望？

BRIAN: Well, I think the China Evie market continue to have a very robust growth momentum.

BRIAN：好吧，我認為中國Evie市場繼續有非常強勁的增長勢頭。

So I think the growth in the next few years, will probably be ahead of the government's

是以，我認為未來幾年的增長，可能會領先於政府的預期。

prediction of 20% by 2025.

預測到2025年為20%。

So that's very exciting for all of us.

是以，這對我們所有人來說都非常令人興奮。

ARJUN: One thing that's been really interesting in the China market is the increasing number

ARJUN：在中國市場上，有一件事非常有趣，那就是越來越多的人加入到中國市場。

of players of course, in the electric vehicle space from from startups to the traditional

當然，在電動汽車領域，從初創企業到傳統企業，都有很多參與者。

automakers.

汽車製造商。

But more recently, we've seen a number of large technology giants also enter this this

但最近，我們看到一些大型技術巨頭也進入了這一領域。

automotive space.

汽車空間。

Does that concern you at all in terms of competition?

就競爭而言，這是否讓你擔心？

And how do you plan to navigate that?

你打算如何駕馭這個問題呢？

BRIAN: Yeah, I think you're right.

BRIAN：是的，我想你是對的。

I mean, I think the waves of competitors are now changing, right?

我的意思是，我認為競爭對手的浪潮現在正在改變，對嗎？

So I think it would be actually quite interesting at that time to see, you know, the competitive

是以，我認為在那個時候，看到你知道的，競爭激烈的情況，實際上是相當有趣的。

dynamic shift towards technology players.

向技術型企業的動態轉變。

And I think we really welcome that.

我認為我們真的歡迎這一點。

ARJUN: Now you have your own autonomous driving system as well called x pilot, which has some,

ARJUN：現在你們也有自己的自主駕駛系統，叫做X pilot，它有一些。

you know, autonomous assisted features for the drivers as well How do you see this playing

你知道，司機的自主輔助功能也是如此，你如何看待這種情況？

out in China?

在中國？

And what what do you see as the road to to where we get full autonomy for these cars?

你認為通往這些汽車獲得完全自主權的道路是什麼？

BRIAN: Well, I think China is probably one of the more advanced and aggressive countries

布里安：嗯，我認為中國可能是更先進和更積極的國家之一。

that to experiment, autonomous driving And with that data, we can actually continue to

有了這些數據，我們實際上可以繼續進行實驗，自主駕駛。

progress towards full autonomy.

在實現完全自治方面取得進展。

I think that gradual sort of approach is what we think is more practical.

我認為這種漸進式的方法是我們認為比較實用的。

ARJUN: Brian, I just want to get back to the competition again, because you know, when

ARJUN：布萊恩，我只是想再次回到競爭，因為你知道，當

a lot of people perhaps hear about expert motors, they read about it on new sites but

很多人也許聽說過專家馬達，他們在新的網站上讀到過它，但

also in terms of Tesla, you know, they have, of course, been around for longer, they're

在特斯拉方面，你知道，他們當然已經存在了更長時間，他們是

delivering more cars than you guys in China, and what are your plans to catch up in this

在中國交付的汽車比你們更多，你們有什麼計劃在這方面迎頭趕上？

space?

空間？

BRIAN: Yeah, I think Tesla is a name that you can avoid talking

BRIAN：是的，我認為特斯拉是一個你可以避免談論的名字。

about when you do EV, right?

關於你做電動車的時候，對嗎？

So we actually learn from all these different players to really form our own strategy.

是以，我們實際上從所有這些不同的球員身上學習，真正形成我們自己的戰略。

ARJUN: You mentioned, of course, your focus on the China driving scenario, but also you

ARJUN：你提到了，當然，你對中國驅動情況的關注，但你也

have begun to lay the groundwork for for global expansion as well.

也已經開始為全球擴張奠定基礎。

So I What are your plans in terms of the international markets?

那麼，我 你在國際市場方面有什麼計劃？

I think you've looked at Europe first, but what are some of the markets you see is ripe

我想你已經先看了歐洲，但你認為有哪些市場是成熟的？

for disruption as it were, and ripe for electric vehicle products that you're bringing into

顛覆性的，對你帶入的電動汽車產品來說，時機已經成熟。

the market?

市場？

BRIAN: Well, I think, at the end of the day, a smart Eevee is going to be a global product.

布里安：好吧，我認為，在一天結束時，智能埃維將是一個全球產品。

I think we want to make sure that we have international growth strategy place where

我認為，我們要確保我們有國際增長戰略的地方，其中

we actually have our third, fourth fifth models ready.

我們實際上已經準備好了我們的第三、第四和第五個模型。

And those models will be designed with international market in mind as well.