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  • - [Narrator] It's not just you

  • your daily coffee ritual is getting more expensive.

  • If you walk into an American cafe right now

  • your average coffee drink is going to run you around $4.50.

  • Five years ago, it would have cost you just $3.85.

  • Nearly a 17% rise in prices.

  • That's compared to inflation, which has grown

  • around 10% during the same period.

  • That rise is driven by a myriad of economic forces

  • that help determine the cost of your morning cup.

  • And now experts say that due to a major crop loss in 2020

  • in a matter of months, prices could go up even more.

  • We'll explain.

  • The price of coffee is driven in part

  • by a complex global supply chain

  • which shapes a more than $460 billion market.

  • Most coffee beans are produced

  • in Brazil, Vietnam, and Columbia.

  • They're then loaded on ships like these

  • and then transported around the world.

  • This well-oiled system moves the beans

  • to importing countries like the US, where they're then sold

  • to coffee traders who sell them to roasteries.

  • The roasted coffee is then sold to distributors

  • such as grocery stores and cafes.

  • Max Copestake is a Coffee Futures Broker.

  • - The trade operates on paper-thin margin

  • it's extremely competitive business now.

  • Things like shipping costs are massive.

  • - [Narrator] During the pandemic,

  • the industry has faced a number of shipping disruptions.

  • A shipping container shortage in Southeast Asia

  • has driven up the price

  • of many commodities, including coffee.

  • - Everything is taking longer to get

  • from one place to the other,

  • containers are piling up in places where they shouldn't be.

  • - [Narrator] Jose Sette is the Executive Director of the ICO

  • a leading inter-governmental organization for coffee.

  • - It's not just Southeast Asia, all over the world

  • we have problems finding sufficient containers.

  • So that means that freight rates tend to rise

  • and increase the prices.

  • - [Narrator] Coffee exports are also affected by storms.

  • In Nicaragua and Honduras communities were devastated

  • by hurricanes last year.

  • - They caused a lot of damage to infrastructure,

  • washed out bridges, landslides that block roads.

  • - [Narrator] The destroyed roads block trade routes.

  • And this meant the supply being imported into countries

  • like the US was diminished.

  • The concern over a lack of supply help drive up the price

  • of coffee futures and experts say this could continue.

  • - As temperature increases

  • this affects the viability of growing coffee

  • especially Arabica coffee.

  • Robusta as its name indicates is robust, is strong

  • and is harder to be affected by climatic phenomenon.

  • It's very resistant.

  • But Arabica coffee is more delicate.

  • It grows within quite a narrow temperature range.

  • - [Narrator] Over the past year,

  • the world's largest coffee producer Brazil,

  • faced a drought that devastated crops.

  • The International Coffee Organization says that around 30%

  • of the country's Arabica crop may have been lost.

  • This year's coffee yields will also be lower

  • because Brazil is in an off-cycle harvest

  • which happens every other year.

  • - The off-cycle is small, and we know that anyway

  • but this year is extra small.

  • And this has got people really spooked

  • 'cause all of a sudden everyone's like,

  • "Hang on.

  • We need this huge country

  • because we've become so reliant on you."

  • - [Narrator] Marex Spectron estimates

  • that the global coffee market

  • will produce millions fewer bags

  • than the previous crop year.

  • You can see these factors are pushing

  • up the price of coffee futures, but overall

  • the effects of the drought haven't yet been felt

  • in your local cafe or grocery store.

  • With weather becoming more extreme around the world

  • due to climate change experts say risk

  • to coffee production will continue.

  • - As temperatures increase,

  • you would expect to find that areas

  • that currently produce Arabica will become too hot.

  • And we have to think about ways to mitigate this,

  • whether by different farming techniques or whether

  • and this is a more difficult process, migrating production.

  • - [Narrator] And as volatile weather increasingly leads

  • to fluctuations in the supply of coffee,

  • demand tends to stay pretty steady.

  • This is because coffee is relatively inelastic,

  • meaning that even when the economy fluctuates,

  • people keep buying beans.

  • - It doesn't change much if prices go up or down.

  • Let me try and explain this in simple terms.

  • If prices double in your supermarket next week,

  • you are likely to change your habits to some extent.

  • You will maybe switch over to a cheaper brand.

  • You may not drink as much coffee outside the home

  • where it is more expensive.

  • - But it's unlikely you'll stop drinking coffee altogether.

  • When the pandemic took hold in March, 2020,

  • people were forced to stay home.

  • Demand for out of home coffee plunged,

  • but demand for in-home coffee rose

  • making up some of the difference in consumption.

  • And as the pandemic continued, another pressure

  • on coffee pricing was playing out in global currencies.

  • Coffee future prices are tied

  • to the US dollar and Brazilian real.

  • The dollar is a global safe haven

  • in times of economic trouble.

  • So during the pandemic coffee farmers were incentivized

  • to take advantage of the strong exchange rate

  • and sell off their beans.

  • The result less stored coffee will be available next harvest

  • when crop yields are expected to be unusually low,

  • this is causing an imbalance

  • between the lower supply of coffee

  • and the expected rise in demand.

  • And this is why experts say coffee prices

  • are currently lower than they should be.

  • They say that this expected rise in prices

  • will affect the entire supply chain.

  • And in six to nine months

  • it could drive up the price of your morning cup, even more.

  • (upbeat music)

- [Narrator] It's not just you

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你的咖啡越来越贵了(Your Coffee Is Getting More Expensive. Here’s Why | WSJ)

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    joey joey 發佈於 2021 年 05 月 30 日
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