China is going through a big change.

中國正在發生大變革

People are getting rid of their cash.

大家都在拋棄現金

Not like that.

不是這樣

Hi, welcome to China Uncensored.

歡迎收看《中國解密》

I'm Shelley Zhang—

我是 Shelley Zhang

the voice in Chris's ear,

Chris 耳裡的聲音

and your temporary host

節目暫代主持人

until Chris realizes how much he misses

直到 Chris 發現自己有多想念

New York City in the winter.

冬天的紐約

Or we all move the show to Hawaii.

或是直到我們把節目搬去夏威夷

You know, when I was a kid,

我還小的時候

I thought the future would bring us

以為未來會出現

robot maids and flying cars.

機器人女僕跟飛行車

Instead, we got cats on Roombas

結果我們現在只有 站在自動吸塵器上的貓

and the ability to pay for bus rides

還有上公車時可以用手機付費

with our phones.

如果有來自未來飛行車時代 的人想跟我交換時空

If anyone from the flying car future

打電話給我

wants to trade,

除非你們的時空 也有可能會與北韓開戰

call me.

總之，重點就是

Unless you're also possibly about to

未來即是現在

go to war with North Korea.

而且就在中國

Anyway, the point is,

因為中國正拋棄過時的現金

the future is now,

改用智慧型手機付費

and it's in China.

不管你是在自動販賣機

Because China is getting rid of old-fashioned cash—

收費站

in favor of paying for stuff with your smartphone.

或是在肉舖

Whether you're at a vending machine;

掃描 QR 碼付費是

a toll booth;

讓你忘記實際花費的最快方式

or....a literal meat market;

你後悔也來不及

nothing makes you forget

中國行動支付金額扶搖直上

how much you're actually spending,

2012 年時成交金額根本是零

paying like scanning a QR code.

到了 2016 年

It's faster than the speed of regret.

金額已超過五兆美元

Mobile phone payment in China

而且預估今年 就會超過十兆美元

has skyrocketed.

一位專家預測中國 在未來五到十年間

It was basically nothing in 2012.

就會成功成為無現金社會

By 2016,

這對公司、政府還有 大眾都是件好事

it had reached more than 5 trillion dollars,

中國在這方面真的進步飛速

and it's projected to be more than

比美國還要快很多

10 trillion dollars this year.

我們的確也有行動支付

One analyst predicts that China

像是 iPhone 一直 要你設定的 ApplePay

will be effectively cashless in five to ten years,

你是設定了沒錯

and that this is a positive thing for business,

但還沒有使用過

the government, and the public.

因為信用卡根本就用的好好的

China is moving really fast on this.

不過中國大部分的人 都不用信用卡

Much faster than the US.

整個國家基本上 完全跳過這步驟

I mean, we do have it here too.

一部分原因與文化有關

Like you how your iPhone keeps prompting you

像是認為欠錢不是好事

to add ApplePay,

同時中國官員阻擾 Visa 跟 MasterCard 進入中國市場

which you finally did—

也無助於信用卡在中國的發展

but you still haven't used it

美國人大多還是使用信用卡

because your credit card works perfectly fine.

美國在 2016 年透過 ApplePay 等行動支付 APP

Well, in China, most people don't use credit cards.

付款的金額只有 1,120 億美元

The entire country basically skipped that step.

聽起來好像很多

It's partly for cultural reasons,

但其實沒有

like having debt was seen as a bad thing.

中國人用手機付費的金額 是美國的五十倍之多

It also didn't help that Chinese officials

不過他們用的不是 ApplePay

made it really hard for Visa and MasterCard

大部份的人都只用

to access the Chinese market.

中國本土兩大支付服務 龍頭其中的一個

Americans still use mostly credit cards.

支付寶還有微信支付

In 2016 Americans spent only $112 billion

微信支付隸屬騰訊旗下

through mobile payment apps like ApplePay.

騰訊開發出微信即時通訊軟體

That might sound like a lot,

就是那個無所不知

but it's not.

每分每秒都在監視你的 社群媒體軟體

Chinese citizens spent 50 times as much

Chris 在 8 月 23 日的 節目上有介紹過

using their phones.

支付寶更大

They're not using ApplePay, though.

是螞蟻金服旗下的服務

Most people are using one of only two

我星期一有介紹過

giant Chinese homegrown payment services:

螞蟻金服企圖收購 美國一家企業

AliPay and WeChat Pay.

不過以失敗收場

WeChat Pay is owned by Tencent,

這兩家龍頭公司

which created the WeChat app—

壟斷了中國的行動支付市場

the all-knowing social media app

賺進數十億美元

that's constantly watching you,

2016 年這兩家平台的 電子支付金額

as Chris showed in our episode on August 23rd.

達到 5 兆美元這麼多

AliPay is even bigger.

相當於中國 國內生產毛額的三分之一

It's owned by Ant Financial,

中國大城市裡幾乎所有店家 [中國最大行動支付於美國與歐洲紮根]

which I mentioned on Monday;

都接受顧客用支付寶 或微信支付付款

it failed in its bid to take over

普及到有 14% 的中國人 都不再帶現金出門

an American company.

消費方式有了這麼大的改變

These two giant companies

將影響中國整體經濟與社會

have cornered China's mobile payment market,

一路向下到 一般民眾的日常生活

and they're on track

對民眾來說當然最大的好處

to make billions of dollars from it.

就是生活便利多了

Between the two of them,

再也不用慌慌張張搜尋錢包

in 2016 they processed as much as

只要用你一直 拿在手上的手機付錢

$5 trillion in electronic payments,

就可以了

which is equal to a third of China's GDP.

但是便利確實有代價

Nearly all merchants in China's biggest cities

其一

allow customers to pay with AliPay and WeChat.

在不須掏錢的情況下

It's so common that 14% of Chinese people

我們容易多花 12% 到 18% 的消費

don't even carry cash anymore.

當你看不到錢從你的錢包消失

Such a massive shift in how people spend money

就很容易忘記你花多少錢

will affect everything from China's overall

在書本上……

economy and society down to

還有鞋子……

the life of your average Zhou.

還有……我想我該把 一些東西拿去退貨

The biggest benefit for Mr. Zhou is

除了花更多錢

of course, convenience.

你所有的消費支出 都會被記錄追蹤

Forget fumbling for your wallet,

寧波有一名搶劫犯 被狠狠地教訓了一課

just pay with your phone,

他在小巷中搶劫一名女子

which you're already holding,

結果發現她身上根本沒多少現金

all the time.

就強迫她用微信支付轉帳

But convenience does come at a cost.

有夠天才

For one,

只不過微信支付的帳號 都得綁定身份證

people tend to spend 12 to 18 percent more

所以警察馬上就抓到他了

when they don't use cash.

剛開始，他們笑得

I mean, when you can't see the money

很用力

disappearing from your wallet,

要不是他的愚蠢

it's easy to lose track of

他本來可以逃過一劫

how much you're spending...

別忘記，根據中國的法律

on books...

所有的中國企業都要

and shoes...

分享用戶資料給政府

and...I should probably return some stuff.

事實上，支付寶的創辦人馬雲

In addition to spending more,

已經自動配合了

all of Mr. Zhou's spending is now tracked.

他大方談論自己 協助中國執法的方式

Something one would-be robber in Ningbo

矽谷聽到可能會嚇傻

found out the hard way.

像是讓中國警方了解 支付寶用戶買了什麼

After mugging a woman in an alleyway,

還有用行為模式 來辨識潛在罪犯等等

he discovered that she didn't really

你真的想要中國警察

have a lot of cash.

可以監視你買的每樣東西嗎？

So he forced her to send him money

「周先生 請問你為什麼在凌晨三點

using WeChat.

買了一個壓力鍋、一個鬧鐘

Which was genius.

還有 23 公斤的魷魚乾？」

Except for the fact that all WeChat accounts

想到未來中國政府可以

require people to register with their ID,

監視我的一舉一動 就覺得有點可怕

so the police caught him immediately.

不過回頭想想

Well, first they laughed.

行動支付真的很方便……

A lot.

我手上已經拿著我的手機……

He would have gotten away with it too,

但是就算你不怕 黨國無所不在的監視

if it weren't for his own stupidity.

不要忘記有兩家公司

Remember, by Chinese law,

持有你所有的資料

all Chinese companies are required to

而且他們使用這些資料 的方式是你沒辦法控制的

share user data with the government.

騰訊跟支付寶最近都

Actually, AliPay founder Jack Ma

爆出侵犯隱私的醜聞

is already offering it up.

搞得民眾不是很開心

He talked candidly about helping

現在你可能會說

Chinese law enforcement in ways

「當然啊 Shelley 無現金支付

that would make Silicon Valley cringe.

只是大企業賣給我們便利

Like by letting Chinese police look at

換取我們所有的私人資訊

what AliPay users buy,

變成中國共產黨 監視系統牢籠的一環

and use patterns to identify potential criminals.

讓我們無所遁逃

Do you really want the Chinese police

諸如此類的話」

to be able to monitor everything you buy?

但這對中國經濟代表了什麼呢？

“Mr. Zhou, is there a reason you bought

短期來看

a pressure cooker, an alarm clock,

這有益於中國經濟

and 52 pounds of dried squid

別忘記，用手機付費

at 3 in the morning?”

會花更多

I mean, a future where the Chinese government

多花錢對當地商業有所幫助

can monitor my every move is kind of scary.

讓金錢流動

On the other hand,

剛好符合中國重建經濟的計畫

mobile payment is pretty convenient...

中國領導人習近平在十月說

and I'm already holding my phone...

為了讓中國成為現代經濟強國

But even if you're not worried about

中國人需要增加國內消費

the party-state's all-seeing eye,

也就是說要多買國貨

there is the fact that two companies

不要只出口到西方

have all of your data,

小子們，我們要想辦法達成 6.5% 的經濟成長目標

and they're using it in ways

但無現支付對經濟 也有一些潛在缺點

that you can't control.

還記得我說中國人 過去不愛欠錢嗎？

Both Tencent and Alipay have

這一兩年來負債族大量增加

recently had privacy scandals,

因為消費者不斷在手機上

and people are not happy.

被貸款還有投資產品的 廣告疲勞轟炸

Now you might be saying,

現在借個一千塊美金比

“Sure, Shelley, cashless payments are just

Candy Crush 打到第七關還容易

another way that giant corporations

中國央行擔心 [無現金社會已出現：只不過是在中國]

sell us convenience in exchange for

「與前一年同期比較起來

all of our personal information,

中國 2017 年前八個月的 短期消費者信貸

which then becomes another piece

大幅增加了 160%」

of the Communist Party's

如果你有收看探討 影子銀行的那集節目

panopticon surveillance system

你就知道中國的消費者債務

from which there will be no escape,

早就出了問題

yada yada yada.”

現在這個情況 只是讓政府更難管控

But what does this mean for China's economy?

另外還有洗錢跟詐騙的問題

Well, in the short term,

舉例來說 廣州共有 1,450 萬人民幣

it's great for China's economy.

被以 QR 碼掃描的 詐騙方式偷走

Remember, people paying with their phones

好消息是政府正在 打擊詐騙跟洗錢

spend more.

他們在今年制定了新規範

More spending is good for local businesses,

他們開始把支付寶跟微信支付

which circulates money,

當作銀行來看

which fits in nicely with the Party's agenda

還設立了中央清算中心

for restructuring the economy.

所以監管機關就更容易追蹤

In October, Chinese leader Xi Jinping

交易買賣的實際情況

said that for China to become

儘管如此

a modern economic powerhouse,

在行動支付逐日取代現金的時候

Chinese people need to

有許多人會被這個系統犧牲掉

increase domestic consumption.

看到中產階級 行走在繁華的城市

That is, they need to buy local stuff,

就會很容易忘記 中國許多地方

not just export it to the West.

還是非常非常貧窮

We gotta hit that 6.5 percent growth target somehow.

在農村

But there are also some

一般人通常一天 只靠四美元過活

potential pitfalls for the economy.

21% 的中國人甚至 連銀行帳戶都沒有

Remember how I said that Chinese people in the past

也就是說大約有三億人口

did not like debt?

無法使用行動支付

Well, there's been a huge surge of people

這數量很驚人！

taking on debt in the last couple years,

大概是十二個澳洲的人口數

because consumers are constantly being bombarded

或是一個美國

with pitches for loans and investment products

扣掉德州的人口

via their smartphones.

噢少來了，德州人

Borrowing a thousand dollars is now easier

你們一直說想要獨立

than getting to level 7 in Candy Crush.

回到中國

China's central bank expressed concern that

很多窮人將趕不上 這個新的無現金社會

“short-term consumer credit in China

你知道還有誰也會趕不上嗎？

soared 160% in the first eight months of 2017

觀光客、還有旅客

from a year earlier.”

因為你要有中國的銀行帳戶

If you watched our episode on shadow banking,

才可以使用行動支付服務

you know that China already has

不過全世界都在往 行動支付的未來前進

a problem with consumer debt.

而中國正獨領風騷

And this just makes it harder to rein in.

事實上如果美國 上週沒有基於國安問題

And then are concerns over

拒絕支付寶併購速匯金的話

money laundering and fraud.

我們可能會看到行動支付

For example, in Guangzhou,

以更快的速度蔓延全美

$14.5 million yuan were stolen

不過即使如此

in QR code scams.

未來還是會到來

The good news is that the government

我只希望到時候

is cracking down on fraud and money laundering.

行動支付不會被 用來預測犯罪企圖

They're putting in new regulations this year.

你認為呢？

They want to start treating AliPay and WeChat

將你的想法留在下面

more like banks,

我是主持人 Shelley Zhang

and set up a central clearing house

下回見

so regulators can more easily track

謝謝你的收看

what's actually going on with transactions.

Chris 這個星期五就會回來

That being said,

趁現在

as mobile payments increasingly replace cash,

按一下左側收看更多

a lot of people will be left out of the system.

關於中國經濟的 《中國解密》節目

See, it's easy to look at images

of middle class people in sparkling cities

and forget that most of China is still

really, really poor.

In the countryside,

the typical person lives off an average

of only $4 a day.

21% of Chinese don't even have a bank account.

That's like 300 million people

who have no way to access mobile payments.

That's a lot!

It's like the population of 12 Australias.

Or one America—

minus, let's say, Texas.

Oh come on, Texans,

you keep saying you're going to leave.

Back to China.

A lot of poor people will be left out of

the new cashless society.

But you know who else will be?

Tourists and other visitors.

Because you need to have a Chinese bank account

to use mobile payment services.

But the world is marching towards

a future of mobile payments.

China is leading the way.

Actually, if the US hadn't rejected

AliPay's takeover of MoneyGram

last week on security concerns,

we might have even seen it take off

much sooner in the US.

But even so,

the future is coming eventually.

I just hope it's not the future

where they use it to predict crime.

So what do you think?

Leave your comments below.

Once again I'm Shelley Zhang.

See you soon.

Thanks for watching.

Chris will be back hosting again this Friday.

In the meantime,

click here on the left to see more

China Uncensored episodes about China's economy.