The risk of a global pandemic is very much upon us.

全球性大流行病的風險正在向我們襲來。

Global pandemic could become a pandemic with the potential to become a pandemic.

全球性的大流行病可能成為一種大流行病，有可能成為一種大流行病。

Let's unpack what that word actually means and how you can protect yourself going forward.

讓我們來解讀一下這個詞的實際含義，以及你如何在未來保護自己。

So what is a pandemic?

那麼什麼是大流行病呢？

Simply put a pandemic is a disease that spreads globally, crossing international boundaries and affecting a large number of people.

簡單地說，大流行病是一種在全球範圍內傳播的疾病，跨越國際邊界，影響大量人口。

To put that in context.

說到這裡，我想說的是。

Here are a few other helpful definitions.

以下是其他一些有用的定義。

So firstly we have this definition of an endemic disease.

是以，首先我們有這個地方性疾病的定義。

That means a disease that's occurring at a steady, predictable rate.

這意味著一種疾病正在以穩定的、可預測的速度發生。

Then you have outbreak which means a disease that's spreading well above and beyond endemic levels.

然後你有爆發，這意味著一種疾病的傳播遠遠超過了地方性水準。

An epidemic, on the other hand, is an outbreak that spread to a large geographical area.

另一方面，流行病是一種擴散到大面積地理區域的爆發。

Keep in mind that one disease can change status over time.

請記住，一種疾病可以隨著時間的推移而改變狀態。

Now going back to the p word, the classical definition of a pandemic doesn't say anything at all about disease severity.

現在回到 "P "這個詞，大流行病的經典定義完全沒有說到疾病的嚴重性。

It's really all focused on geographic scale.

這實際上都集中在地理規模上。

So far, the World Health Organization hasn't referred to this as a pandemic.

到目前為止，世界衛生組織還沒有將其稱為大流行病。

Our message continues to be that this virus has pandemic potential, although many epidemiologists myself included are treating it as one.

我們的資訊仍然是，這種病毒具有大流行的潛力，儘管包括我在內的許多流行病學家都把它當作一種病毒。

The spread of this new virus, Sars-Cov-2 is likely past the point of containment and that's the first thing you tried to do with a potential pandemic.

這種新病毒Sars-Cov-2的傳播很可能已經超過了遏制點，而這是你試圖對潛在的大流行病所做的第一件事。

It's what China was trying to do with massive quarantines, the likes of which we've never seen before.

這就是中國試圖通過大規模的隔離來做的事情，我們以前從未見過這樣的情況。

But once you're past that point of containment, you need to quickly pivot to another focus.

但是，一旦你過了這個遏制點，你就需要迅速轉到另一個重點。

Instead of trying to stop a disease, it's already spread to many different countries, you need to focus on slowing the spread of infection.

與其試圖阻止一種疾病，它已經傳播到許多不同的國家，你需要專注於減緩感染的蔓延。

To do this, you have to properly isolate people who are infected and try and quickly develop treatments and vaccines.

要做到這一點，你必須適當地隔離被感染的人，並嘗試快速開發治療方法和疫苗。

It looks like at least so far with this new virus, that the death rate is a lot lower than other severe coronavirus is that doesn't mean many people haven't died.

看起來至少到目前為止，這種新病毒的死亡率要比其他嚴重的冠狀病毒低得多，但這並不意味著許多人沒有死亡。

We've seen thousands of deaths, but the overall death rate is closer to around three for this new virus, Whereas the death rate for SARS was around 10 and farmers, the death rate was over 30 now, just because this new virus doesn't seem to have as high a death rate, it doesn't mean that we shouldn't have a plan.

我們已經看到數千人死亡，但這種新病毒的總體死亡率接近3左右，而SARS的死亡率約為10和農民，現在的死亡率超過30，僅僅因為這種新病毒似乎沒有那麼高的死亡率，這並不意味著我們不應該有一個計劃。

So how do we protect ourselves right now?

那麼，我們現在該如何保護自己呢？

I know this sounds really pedestrian, but trust me, one of the best pieces of advice is to wash your hands with soap and water regularly.

我知道這聽起來真的很迂腐，但相信我，最好的建議之一是定期用肥皂和水洗手。

Have good cough hygiene to like cough into your elbow, cough into a tissue and then throw it away and also get your flu shot.

要有良好的咳嗽衛生，比如對著肘部咳嗽，對著紙巾咳嗽，然後扔掉，還要注射流感疫苗。

I know people are kind of like overhearing about the flu at this point, but the reason I say it is that if you get sick with the flu, it massively increases your risk of getting a second respiratory infection, like the new coronavirus, also, you can practice what's known as social distancing.

我知道人們在這一點上有點像對流感的過度關注，但我說的原因是，如果你得了流感，會大量增加你感染第二次呼吸道感染的風險，比如新的冠狀病毒，同時，你可以練習所謂的社會疏遠。

That means simply limiting your exposure to other people by working at home.

這意味著通過在家裡工作，簡單地限制你與其他人的接觸。

For example, or if you're in public maintaining a distance of 3-6 ft between you and others, I'm getting a ton of questions about masks, understandably.

例如，或者如果你在公共場合與他人保持3-6英尺的距離，我就會收到一大堆關於口罩的問題，這是可以理解的。

So here's what you need to know.

是以，這裡是你需要知道的。

You need to wear a mask.

你需要戴上口罩。

If you have symptoms of respiratory disease symptoms like coughing or if you're looking after people who are sick and have those symptoms, you also need to know how to properly use a mask and be aware of things like once a mask is moist, It's not as effective and needs to be replaced wearing a mask without full knowledge of when and how to where It can be dangerous because it gives people a false sense of security about how protective they really are.

如果你有咳嗽等呼吸道疾病的症狀，或者如果你在照顧有這些症狀的病人，你也需要知道如何正確使用口罩，並注意一些事情，比如一旦口罩潮溼，它就不那麼有效了，需要更換。在沒有充分了解何時何地佩戴口罩會很危險，因為它給人們一種錯誤的安全感，認為他們真的有保護作用。

If you do need a mask, health authorities recommend a regular surgical mask because that prevents droplets from other people coming into contact with your mouth and nose.

如果你確實需要口罩，衛生部門建議使用普通的外科口罩，因為這樣可以防止其他人的飛沫接觸到你的嘴和鼻子。

And if you have symptoms, it prevents those droplets from you reaching others.

而且，如果你有症狀，它可以防止你的這些飛沫傳給其他人。

An N 95 mask is recommended for healthcare workers caring for sick people when they're doing procedures that bring more fluid up from inside a person's lungs, that's more dangerous.

建議照顧病人的醫護人員在做手術時使用N95口罩，因為這些手術會使更多的液體從人的肺部上升，這更危險。

So that's why an N 95 mask is recommended.

是以，這就是為什麼推薦使用N 95面膜。

Bear in mind that with masks, it's not one size fits all you want to make sure that a mask you're wearing really is right for you and really is working One way to do this ideally, you get fit tested.

請記住，對於口罩來說，它不是一個尺寸，你要確保你所戴的口罩真的適合你，而且真的有效。 要做到這一點的一個理想方法是，你要進行適應性測試。

But also when you put an N 95 mask on, you can do a seal test where you breathe hard and you feel to see whether any air is escaping around it or not.

但是，當你戴上N 95口罩時，你也可以做一個密封測試，即你用力呼吸，你感覺看看周圍是否有任何空氣漏出。

A question I get asked a lot is should you wear a mask?

我經常被問到的一個問題是你應該戴口罩嗎？

If you don't have any symptoms, like just to be really, really safe.

如果你沒有任何症狀，比如說只是為了真的、真的安全。

The answer I normally give is no, because if you wear a mask unnecessarily or you stock up on a ton of them, you're just contributing to the mask shortages that we're already seeing and taking away resources from people who truly need them.

我通常給出的答案是否定的，因為如果你不必要地戴口罩或囤積大量的口罩，你只是在助長我們已經看到的口罩短缺，並從真正需要口罩的人那裡奪走資源。

So for now, take advice from what your local health officials are saying.

所以現在，請聽從當地衛生官員的建議。

I think what history tells us is that pandemics are inevitable and to be expected and that's really why we need solid pandemic preparedness plans at national levels and also at family and community levels.

我認為歷史告訴我們，大流行病是不可避免的，是可以預期的，這就是為什麼我們需要在國家層面以及在家庭和社區層面制定堅實的大流行病準備計劃。

To understand just what pandemics are capable of.

要了解大流行病的能力。

Let's look at a few examples from human history, starting with perhaps the most infamous pandemic, The Black Death or the bubonic plague.

讓我們看看人類歷史上的幾個例子，從可能是最臭名昭著的大流行病--黑死病或鼠疫開始。

Now this pandemic got its name from its symptoms specifically lymph nodes that became blackened and swollen after bacteria entered through the skin.

現在，這種大流行病的名字來自於它的症狀，特別是在細菌通過皮膚進入後變得發黑和腫脹的淋巴結。

Lovely.

可愛的。

I know now this isn't the first pandemic by any means, but it's certainly one of the deadliest.

我知道現在這絕不是第一次大流行病，但它肯定是最致命的一次。

It lasted from around 1346 to 1353 and resulted in the deaths of somewhere between 75 million people Up to 200 million people.

它大約從1346年持續到1353年，導致大約7500萬人至2億人死亡。

It's mostly associated with Europe, but it's thought to have originated in Asia and then spread across that continent as well as possibly Africa there are a few theories about how the disease spread to humans.

它主要與歐洲有關，但人們認為它起源於亞洲，然後傳播到該大陸以及可能的非洲，關於該疾病如何傳播給人類有幾種理論。

Some scientists say could have spread towards directly from rats.

一些科學家說，可能是直接從老鼠身上傳播而來。

Others say there's some evidence that it was actually spread by fleas that lived on gerbils.

其他人說，有一些證據表明它實際上是由生活在沙鼠身上的跳蚤傳播的。

Let's fast forward to 1918 and here we run into the Spanish flu pandemic, which infected one in three humans alive at the time and killed about 50 million globally.

讓我們快進到1918年，在這裡我們遇到了西班牙流感大流行，當時每三個活著的人中就有一個被感染，全球約有5000萬人死亡。

It's only called Spanish because Spain was not involved in World War and it was neutral.

它之所以被稱為西班牙，是因為西班牙沒有參與世界大戰，它是中立的。

Therefore, it did not have new censorship.

是以，它沒有新的審查制度。

So when this outbreak arrived in Spain, that's when it got press coverage.

是以，當這一疫情到達西班牙時，那是它得到媒體報道的時候。

Whereas in France and other countries, it was not mentioned in newspapers at all, the Spanish flu killed really quickly.

而在法國和其他國家，報紙上根本就沒有提到，西班牙流感的死亡速度真的很快。

There were approximately 25 million deaths in just the first five or six months.

僅僅在最初的五六個月就有大約2500萬人死亡。

Part of the reason for that, though, probably had to do a lot with poor living conditions at the time and the fact that flu makes you susceptible for other infections, like bacterial chest infections.

不過，部分原因可能與當時惡劣的生活條件有很大關係，而且流感使你容易受到其他感染，如細菌性胸部感染。

And back then, there were no antibiotics.

而在那時，還沒有抗生素。

And unlike what we're seeing today, where it seems that older people are more vulnerable to death.

而不像我們今天看到的那樣，似乎老年人更容易死亡。

From COVID-19 at least based on preliminary data, spanish flu was different.

從COVID-19至少基於初步數據來看，西班牙流感是不同的。

It was wiping out young and healthy adults.

它正在消滅年輕和健康的成年人。

Then there's the HIV AIDS pandemic.

然後是艾滋病毒/艾滋病的大流行。

HIV quickly spread from central and Western africa to every continent on the planet in the early 19 eighties and it's killed more than 30 million people around the world.

19世紀80年代初，艾滋病毒從非洲中部和西部迅速蔓延到地球上的每一個大陸，它已經在全世界殺死了3000多萬人。

It's also the first pandemic for which there's been global activism and the very rapid development of treatments.

這也是第一種大流行病，全球都在積極行動，治療方法的發展也非常迅速。

It went through the whole spectrum from being an outbreak to an epidemic to a pandemic.

它經歷了從爆發到流行再到大流行的整個過程。

And now many people say we can call HIV endemic in some parts of the world.

而現在很多人說，我們可以把艾滋病毒在世界的某些地方稱為流行病。

Thanks to advances in medical technology and the AIDS activists, HIV should be a chronic, manageable condition that you live with your whole life.

由於醫療技術的進步和艾滋病活動家的努力，HIV應該是一種慢性的、可控制的疾病，你的一生都與之共存。

Although ideally we'd have a vaccine and a cure for HIV.

儘管在理想情況下，我們會有疫苗和艾滋病毒的治療方法。

Next we have the SARS pandemic which went from 2000 and 2 to 2003 and was also caused by coronavirus.

接下來我們有SARS大流行，從2000年和2年到2003年，也是由冠狀病毒引起的。

Remember that's a whole family of viruses, including for corona viruses that cause the common cold, as well as this new coronavirus that causes covid 19 SARS likely jumped from civic cats to humans in china and then spread to other parts of the world.

請記住，這是一個完整的病毒家族，包括對於導致普通感冒的冠狀病毒，以及這種新的冠狀病毒，導致covid 19 SARS可能從中國的狸貓跳到人類，然後傳播到世界其他地方。

Back in 2000 and two, chinese officials had a delay in sharing data about SARS and in response, the World Health Organization updated the International Health Regulations basically to compel all 190 for member states to get their act together and meet specific standards for detecting, reporting and responding to outbreaks.

早在2000年和2年，中國官員在分享有關SARS的數據方面有延遲，作為迴應，世界衛生組織更新了《國際衛生條例》，基本上是為了迫使所有190個成員國振作起來，達到檢測、報告和應對疾病爆發的具體標準。

These new plans for a more coordinated global response to pandemics came into effect with the 2009 swine flu pandemic, Which was caused by a new H1N1 flu virus and killed between 150,000 to around half a million people.

這些更加協調的全球應對大流行病的新計劃在2009年豬流感大流行時生效，該大流行是由一種新的H1N1流感病毒引起的，造成15萬至約50萬人死亡。

It spread really widely.

它傳播得非常廣泛。

It was seen in both northern and southern hemispheres between April and September of 2009, which means it also spread outside of the normal flu seasons.

在2009年4月至9月期間，它在北半球和南半球都出現了，這意味著它也在正常流感季節之外傳播。

We've learned from previous pandemics that people can either die from the disease at hand or develop immunity to that disease and that means that as the disease continues to circulate, it won't have that same devastating impact that it did.

我們從以前的大流行病中瞭解到，人們要麼死於手頭的疾病，要麼對該疾病產生免疫力，這意味著隨著疾病的繼續流傳，它不會像以前那樣產生破壞性的影響。

The first time round one example of this is the H1N1 virus that caused the 2009 flu pandemic.

第一輪的一個例子是造成2009年流感大流行的H1N1病毒。

That virus is now a common flu virus that circulates worldwide, but it doesn't cause a pandemic.

這種病毒現在是一種常見的流感病毒，在全世界範圍內流通，但它不會引起大流行。

So how does a pandemic end?

那麼，大流行病是如何結束的呢？

Virologists estimate that this new virus will likely stay in china and continue to seed other countries in the world until maybe it just becomes as common as the other four corona viruses that caused the mild, common cold.

病毒學家估計，這種新病毒可能會留在中國，並繼續在世界其他國家播種，直到也許它就像其他四種引起溫和的普通感冒的冠狀病毒一樣普遍。

Some people are even starting to call it the fifth coronavirus.

有些人甚至開始把它稱為第五種冠狀病毒。

So maybe that will be it story.

是以，也許這將是它的故事。

It goes from COVID-19 which causes terrible situation to the fifth regular coronavirus causing the cold.

它從導致可怕情況的COVID-19到導致感冒的第五種常規冠狀病毒。

Some virologists even predict that maybe 40-70 of adults around the world will become infected with the new virus before this is all over.

一些病毒學家甚至預測，在這一切結束之前，全世界可能有40-70個成年人會感染這種新病毒。

But many scientists still say the vast majority of those who become infected are more likely to have a milder version of the disease, What we have on our side versus those poor people facing the black death.

但是許多科學家仍然說，絕大多數被感染的人更有可能患有較溫和的疾病，我們這邊的情況與那些面臨黑色死亡的可憐人相比，是什麼？

For example, is we have the capacity to more quickly develop treatments and vaccines.

例如，我們是否有能力更迅速地開發治療和疫苗。

A COVID-19 vaccine candidate could be ready for early phases of safety testing in April and if that goes while testing, could begin to see if the vaccine actually prevents disease by the late summer.

一種COVID-19候選疫苗可能在4月準備好進行早期階段的安全測試，如果測試順利，可以在夏末開始觀察該疫苗是否真的能預防疾病。

But reality check, it would still be 18 months, at least after that, that any vaccine will probably be available.

但現實情況是，至少在那之後的18個月裡，任何疫苗都可能會被推出。

So yes, you'll be hearing the P word a lot.

是以，是的，你將會經常聽到P這個詞。

But remember definitions of pandemic, focus on geographic spread and do not focus on severity of the disease.

但是，請記住大流行的定義，重點是地理上的傳播，而不是側重於疾病的嚴重程度。