in U.S. history, wreaked  damage worth $170 billion.

在美國曆史上，這起事件造成了價值1700億美元的損失。

That's an amount so staggering it dwarfs the annual economic output of most nations.

這是一個非常驚人的數額，使大多數國家的年經濟產出相形見絀。

Flooding alone destroyed 300,000 homes in New Orleans,  while 19% of U.S. oil production capacity

僅僅是洪水就摧毀了新奧爾良的30萬所房屋，而美國19%的石油生產能力

was taken offline because of the 2005 hurricane season.

由於2005年的颶風季節，該網站被下線了。

This is just one example of how  climate change not only has a 

這只是一個例子，說明了氣候變化不僅對人類有

human and environmental toll,  but also a huge financial cost.

這不僅是人類和環境的損失，也是巨大的財務成本。

One that economists say could lead to the world's next big financial crisis.

經濟學家說，這可能導致世界上的下一次大的金融危機。

Climate change is the biggest challenge we face.

氣候變化是我們面臨的最大挑戰。

No one nation can solve this problem by itself.

沒有一個國家可以獨自解決這個問題。

And the worst thing would be if, you know, people care about this issue, we have this goal,

而最糟糕的事情是，如果，你知道，人們關心這個問題，我們有這個目標。

but 10 years from now people are going to see  that we are not really going to get the number down

但10年後，人們將看到，我們並沒有真正將數字降低。

Fighting climate change has hit the mainstream, with many of the world's most prominent leaders speaking out.

應對氣候變化已經成為主流，世界上許多最著名的領導人都發表了意見。

Yet, despite the sense of urgency, one common misconception is that we will need to

然而，儘管有緊迫感，一個常見的誤解是，我們將需要

trade a healthy economy and jobs for a sustainable planet. Is there any truth in that?

用健康的經濟和就業來換取一個可持續的地球。這裡面有什麼道理嗎？

I think now there is an understanding that this has some risks,

我想現在大家都明白，這有一些風險。

they also realize they might face some financial losses if they don't do anything.

他們也意識到，如果他們不做任何事情，可能會面臨一些經濟損失。

Yannis Dafermos has done extensive research on climate change and financial stability.

Yannis Dafermos對氣候變化和金融穩定進行了廣泛的研究。

He walked me through the two main reasons climate inaction could be a financial time bomb.

他向我介紹了氣候不作為可能成為金融定時炸彈的兩個主要原因。

There are the physical effects, such as extreme weather events,

有物理影響，如極端天氣事件。

and the carbon transition, the impact that moving to a less

和碳轉型的影響。

carbon dependent economy  will have on many industries. 

碳依賴型經濟將對許多行業產生影響。

Let's start by looking at the physical risks.

讓我們先來看看身體上的風險。

These disasters are becoming more frequent and more severe.

這些災害正變得越來越頻繁，越來越嚴重。

Kristalina Georgieva is the International Monetary Fund's managing director.

克里斯塔利娜-格奧爾基耶娃是國際貨幣基金組織的常務董事。

Property is affected, production capacity of agriculture, of industry is affected, even the very financial institutions

財產受到影響，農業和工業的生產能力受到影響，甚至金融機構也受到影響。

may be affected and what this translates into is a risk for financial stability.

可能會受到影響，這就轉化為金融穩定的風險。

Disasters cost the global  economy $146 billion in 2019. 

災害在2019年使全球經濟損失1460億美元。

Insurers covered $60 billion of that amount.

保險公司承擔了其中600億美元的費用。

In fact, one of the largest insurance companies in the world, Swiss Re,

事實上，世界上最大的保險公司之一，瑞士再保險公司。

said that extreme weather events are growing in both number and severity.

說，極端天氣事件在數量和嚴重程度上都在增長。

This means many industries are bracing for even bigger losses in the future.

這意味著許多行業正在為未來更大的損失做準備。

But these losses aren't just lines on a spreadsheet. They impact people like you and me.

但這些損失不僅僅是電子表格上的線條。它們影響著像你和我這樣的人。

Tens of millions of people, for example, have been displaced from their homes due to extreme weather.

例如，數以千萬計的人因極端天氣而被迫離開家園。

So, how could that trigger a financial crisis?

那麼，這怎麼可能引發金融危機呢？

Let's look at the fallout that could follow extreme flooding as an example.

讓我們看一下極端洪災後可能產生的後果，作為一個例子。

If the flooding were to  happen in a populated area, 

如果洪水發生在人口密集區。

property would inevitably be damaged  or even completely destroyed.

財產將不可避免地受到損害，甚至被完全摧毀。

It is estimated that 50 to 80% of economic losses caused 

據估計，50％至80％的經濟損失是由以下原因造成的

by natural and man-made  catastrophes globally are uninsured.

在全球範圍內，因自然和人為災難造成的損失沒有得到保險。

This means an uninsured homeowner  who took out a mortgage to 

這意味著，沒有保險的房主如果為自己購買了抵押貸款，那麼他就會被判刑。

purchase the property likely won't  be able to pay back their lender.

購買房產的人很可能無法償還他們的貸款人。

Factor in this happening to many, many more people 

考慮到這種情況發生在很多很多的人身上

and banks are left without  income from mortgage repayments.

和銀行沒有來自抵押貸款償還的收入。

As a result, lenders might reduce the number of loans they provide,

是以，貸款人可能會減少他們提供的貸款數量。

or charge more for the service in the form of interest.

或以利息的形式收取更多的服務費用。

Prospective homeowners looking to get a mortgage might not be able to do so,

希望獲得抵押貸款的準房主可能無法做到這一點。

and businesses may struggle to get loans to expand their operations.

和企業可能難以獲得貸款以擴大其業務。

It wouldn't be long before you have an economy grinding to a halt.

用不了多久，你的經濟就會陷入停滯狀態。

Although it had a different catalyst, the Great Financial Crisis resulted from

雖然它有不同的催化劑，但大金融危機的結果是

banks discovering that investments backed by  property had become near-worthless, 

銀行發現，由財產支持的投資已經變得幾乎毫無價值。

and the ensuing credit crunch  caused the global economy to shrink.

以及隨之而來的信貸緊縮導致全球經濟萎縮。

This is not the only risk  facing our financial system. 

這並不是我們的金融系統面臨的唯一風險。

Managing Director Georgieva filled me in.

總經理格奧爾基耶娃向我介紹了情況。

The world is clear that we have to move from a high to a low carbon intensity

世界很清楚，我們必須從高碳強度向低碳強度發展。

so we can protect ourselves from rising temperatures

以便我們能夠保護自己免受溫度上升的影響

and the very disasters I spoke about, but when that happens,

和我談到的非常多的災難，但當這種情況發生時。

industries that are in that area of high intensity become less valuable,

處於該高強度領域的產業變得不那麼有價值。

asset valuation changes and  this shift, if it is abrupt, 

資產估值變化和這種轉變，如果它是突然的。

can be quite difficult for financial institutions.

對金融機構來說，這可能是相當困難的。

More countries are committing to becoming carbon neutral in the coming decades,

更多的國家正在承諾在未來幾十年內實現碳中和。

meaning they are trying to reduce emissions of CO2 and even capture greenhouse gases from the air.

這意味著他們正在努力減少二氧化碳的排放，甚至從空氣中捕捉溫室氣體。

But this transition to carbon neutrality requires many businesses to change how they operate.

但這種向碳中和的過渡需要許多企業改變他們的運作方式。

Let's imagine that an oil-producing company has not changed its business model to

讓我們設想一下，一家石油生產公司沒有改變其商業模式，以

focus more on renewable sources of energy. As societies use less gasoline, this firm may lose value.

更加關注可再生能源。隨著社會對汽油的使用減少，這家公司可能會失去價值。

It simply becomes less attractive to investors. If many companies end up losing value because they

它對投資者的吸引力就會降低。如果許多公司最終失去價值，因為它們

aren't adjusting to a low-carbon society, then this could eventually spark a market sell-off too.

如果不調整到低碳社會，那麼這最終也會引發市場拋售。

If this happens without too much preparation, 

如果這種情況發生，沒有太多準備。

this can cause a kind of a  shock to financial markets.

這可能會對金融市場造成一種衝擊。

There might be some indirect effects through the interconnection of the financial system,

通過金融系統的相互聯繫，可能會有一些間接影響。

I mean even those who might have already decided to invest more in green financial products,

我的意思是，即使是那些可能已經決定更多地投資於綠色金融產品的人。

if the financial system overall has a problem, they might also see some losses.

如果金融系統整體出現問題，他們可能也會看到一些損失。

We live in an interconnected world  and financial markets span the globe. 

我們生活在一個相互關聯的世界，金融市場橫跨全球。

That's why a tsunami in Japan  or wildfires in California

這就是為什麼日本的海嘯或加利福尼亞的野火

could have an impact on the  retirement plans of a worker in Italy 

可能會對意大利工人的退休計劃產生影響

or on the stocks you bought using  platforms like Robinhood and eToro.

或在你使用Robinhood和eToro等平臺購買的股票上。

One element that could lead investors to 

有一個因素可能導致投資者

adjust their positions in  the market is a carbon tax.

調整他們在市場上的位置是一個碳稅。

These levies are being discussed  in a wide range of countries and 

許多國家和地區都在討論這些稅種。

would focus on taxing companies  according to their emissions.

將側重於根據公司的排放量來徵稅。

By making these firms pay more, governments hope that they will be incentivized to pollute less.

政府希望通過讓這些公司支付更多費用，激勵它們減少汙染。

If in the coming years, governments  realize that it is necessary 

如果在未來幾年，政府意識到有必要

to act quickly in order to reduce emissions, they might therefore decide

迅速採取行動以減少排放，是以他們可能決定

to increase carbon taxes very quickly within a short period of time,

在很短的時間內迅速增加碳稅。

and this will be a problem  for those companies that 

而這對那些在中國的公司來說，將是一個問題。

rely too much on gas, oil,  coal for their production.

過分依賴天然氣、石油、煤炭進行生產。

And then those banks that have  provided loans to these companies 

然後那些向這些公司提供貸款的銀行

might not be in a position to remain stable.

可能無法保持穩定。

So, what can be done to reduce the risks posed by climate change?

那麼，可以做些什麼來減少氣候變化帶來的風險？

The very first and most important thing they need to do is to put in place policies and investments

他們需要做的第一件也是最重要的事情是制定政策和投資

to shift towards the new climate economy, one that is low carbon and climate resilient,

轉向新的氣候經濟，即低碳和具有氣候適應性的經濟。

but they also need to concentrate  on the financial system 

但他們也需要專注於金融系統

because it is essential for the  functioning of our economies.

因為它對我們的經濟運行至關重要。

In the European Union, governments are working on 

在歐盟，各國政府正致力於

several measures as they  implement the European Green Deal.

在實施歐洲綠色協議的過程中，他們採取了一些措施。

The plan aims to revitalize economic growth in the bloc whilst reducing the consumption of resources,

該計劃旨在振興該集團的經濟增長，同時減少資源的消耗。

with a pledge to cut net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050.

承諾到2050年將溫室氣體淨排放量減少到零。

In addition, the U.S. has also promised to halve emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 levels.

此外，美國還承諾到2030年將排放量比2005年的水準減少一半。

Japan, Canada and even China have also announced plans to reduce emissions in the coming years.

日本、加拿大甚至中國也宣佈了未來幾年的減排計劃。

Central banks, charged with  ensuring economic stability, 

中央銀行，負責確保經濟穩定。

have also started studying how to  tackle climate risks in their policies.

也已經開始研究如何在其政策中解決氣候風險。

Climate change is the biggest challenge we face 

氣候變化是我們面臨的最大挑戰

but it is also the greatest  opportunity of our lifetimes

但這也是我們一生中最大的機會

because managing climate risks is taxing, but the way we do it

因為管理氣候風險是很費力的，但我們的方式是

by investing in climate  resilience and new technologies, 

通過投資於氣候復原力和新技術。

offers opportunities for  green growth and green jobs.

為綠色增長和綠色就業提供了機會。

Investing in a low-carbon society may have wider economic benefits too.

投資於低碳社會可能也有更廣泛的經濟利益。

An initial 5% of GDP green investment push combined with gradually increasing carbon prices

最初佔GDP5%的綠色投資推動與逐步提高的碳價格相結合

and attention to those that are affected negatively from the transition,

並關注那些因過渡而受到負面影響的人。

this can be very beneficial  for the world economy,

這可能對世界經濟非常有利。

it can increase growth by 0.7% on an  annual basis over the next 15 years.

它可以在未來15年內每年增加0.7%的增長。

Hi everyone, thank you so much for watching.

大家好，非常感謝你們的觀看。

Are you worried about the risks that climate change could pose to your savings and investments?

你是否擔心氣候變化可能給你的儲蓄和投資帶來的風險？

Let us know in the comments section, and I will see you soon.

請在評論區告訴我們，我很快就會看到你。