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  • Hurricane Katrina, one of the  most destructive natural disasters 

    卡特里娜颶風,最具破壞性的自然災害之一

  • in U.S. history, wreaked  damage worth $170 billion.

    在美國曆史上,這起事件造成了價值1700億美元的損失。

  • That's an amount so staggering it dwarfs the annual economic output of most nations.

    這是一個非常驚人的數額,使大多數國家的年經濟產出相形見絀。

  • Flooding alone destroyed 300,000 homes in New Orleanswhile 19% of U.S. oil production capacity

    僅僅是洪水就摧毀了新奧爾良的30萬所房屋,而美國19%的石油生產能力

  • was taken offline because of the 2005 hurricane season.

    由於2005年的颶風季節,該網站被下線了。

  • This is just one example of how  climate change not only has

    這只是一個例子,說明了氣候變化不僅對人類有

  • human and environmental tollbut also a huge financial cost.

    這不僅是人類和環境的損失,也是巨大的財務成本。

  • One that economists say could lead to the world's next big financial crisis.

    經濟學家說,這可能導致世界上的下一次大的金融危機。

  • Climate change is the biggest challenge we face.

    氣候變化是我們面臨的最大挑戰。

  • No one nation can solve this problem by itself.

    沒有一個國家可以獨自解決這個問題。

  • And the worst thing would be if, you know, people care about this issue, we have this goal,

    而最糟糕的事情是,如果,你知道,人們關心這個問題,我們有這個目標。

  • but 10 years from now people are going to see  that we are not really going to get the number down

    但10年後,人們將看到,我們並沒有真正將數字降低。

  • Fighting climate change has hit the mainstream, with many of the world's most prominent leaders speaking out.

    應對氣候變化已經成為主流,世界上許多最著名的領導人都發表了意見。

  • Yet, despite the sense of urgency, one common misconception is that we will need to

    然而,儘管有緊迫感,一個常見的誤解是,我們將需要

  • trade a healthy economy and jobs for a sustainable planet. Is there any truth in that?

    用健康的經濟和就業來換取一個可持續的地球。這裡面有什麼道理嗎?

  • I think now there is an understanding that this has some risks,

    我想現在大家都明白,這有一些風險。

  • they also realize they might face some financial losses if they don't do anything.

    他們也意識到,如果他們不做任何事情,可能會面臨一些經濟損失。

  • Yannis Dafermos has done extensive research on climate change and financial stability.

    Yannis Dafermos對氣候變化和金融穩定進行了廣泛的研究。

  • He walked me through the two main reasons climate inaction could be a financial time bomb.

    他向我介紹了氣候不作為可能成為金融定時炸彈的兩個主要原因。

  • There are the physical effects, such as extreme weather events,

    有物理影響,如極端天氣事件。

  • and the carbon transition, the impact that moving to a less

    和碳轉型的影響。

  • carbon dependent economy  will have on many industries

    碳依賴型經濟將對許多行業產生影響。

  • Let's start by looking at the physical risks.

    讓我們先來看看身體上的風險。

  • These disasters are becoming more frequent and more severe.

    這些災害正變得越來越頻繁,越來越嚴重。

  • Kristalina Georgieva is the International Monetary Fund's managing director.

    克里斯塔利娜-格奧爾基耶娃是國際貨幣基金組織的常務董事。

  • Property is affected, production capacity of agriculture, of industry is affected, even the very financial institutions

    財產受到影響,農業和工業的生產能力受到影響,甚至金融機構也受到影響。

  • may be affected and what this translates into is a risk for financial stability.

    可能會受到影響,這就轉化為金融穩定的風險。

  • Disasters cost the global  economy $146 billion in 2019. 

    災害在2019年使全球經濟損失1460億美元。

  • Insurers covered $60 billion of that amount.

    保險公司承擔了其中600億美元的費用。

  • In fact, one of the largest insurance companies in the world, Swiss Re,

    事實上,世界上最大的保險公司之一,瑞士再保險公司。

  • said that extreme weather events are growing in both number and severity.

    說,極端天氣事件在數量和嚴重程度上都在增長。

  • This means many industries are bracing for even bigger losses in the future.

    這意味著許多行業正在為未來更大的損失做準備。

  • But these losses aren't just lines on a spreadsheet. They impact people like you and me.

    但這些損失不僅僅是電子表格上的線條。它們影響著像你和我這樣的人。

  • Tens of millions of people, for example, have been displaced from their homes due to extreme weather.

    例如,數以千萬計的人因極端天氣而被迫離開家園。

  • So, how could that trigger a financial crisis?

    那麼,這怎麼可能引發金融危機呢?

  • Let's look at the fallout that could follow extreme flooding as an example.

    讓我們看一下極端洪災後可能產生的後果,作為一個例子。

  • If the flooding were to  happen in a populated area

    如果洪水發生在人口密集區。

  • property would inevitably be damaged  or even completely destroyed.

    財產將不可避免地受到損害,甚至被完全摧毀。

  • It is estimated that 50 to 80% of economic losses caused 

    據估計,50%至80%的經濟損失是由以下原因造成的

  • by natural and man-made  catastrophes globally are uninsured.

    在全球範圍內,因自然和人為災難造成的損失沒有得到保險。

  • This means an uninsured homeowner  who took out a mortgage to 

    這意味著,沒有保險的房主如果為自己購買了抵押貸款,那麼他就會被判刑。

  • purchase the property likely won't  be able to pay back their lender.

    購買房產的人很可能無法償還他們的貸款人。

  • Factor in this happening to many, many more people 

    考慮到這種情況發生在很多很多的人身上

  • and banks are left without  income from mortgage repayments.

    和銀行沒有來自抵押貸款償還的收入。

  • As a result, lenders might reduce the number of loans they provide,

    是以,貸款人可能會減少他們提供的貸款數量。

  • or charge more for the service in the form of interest.

    或以利息的形式收取更多的服務費用。

  • Prospective homeowners looking to get a mortgage might not be able to do so,

    希望獲得抵押貸款的準房主可能無法做到這一點。

  • and businesses may struggle to get loans to expand their operations.

    和企業可能難以獲得貸款以擴大其業務。

  • It wouldn't be long before you have an economy grinding to a halt.

    用不了多久,你的經濟就會陷入停滯狀態。

  • Although it had a different catalyst, the Great Financial Crisis resulted from

    雖然它有不同的催化劑,但大金融危機的結果是

  • banks discovering that investments backed by  property had become near-worthless

    銀行發現,由財產支持的投資已經變得幾乎毫無價值。

  • and the ensuing credit crunch  caused the global economy to shrink.

    以及隨之而來的信貸緊縮導致全球經濟萎縮。

  • This is not the only risk  facing our financial system

    這並不是我們的金融系統面臨的唯一風險。

  • Managing Director Georgieva filled me in.

    總經理格奧爾基耶娃向我介紹了情況。

  • The world is clear that we have to move from a high to a low carbon intensity

    世界很清楚,我們必須從高碳強度向低碳強度發展。

  • so we can protect ourselves from rising temperatures

    以便我們能夠保護自己免受溫度上升的影響

  • and the very disasters I spoke about, but when that happens,

    和我談到的非常多的災難,但當這種情況發生時。

  • industries that are in that area of high intensity become less valuable,

    處於該高強度領域的產業變得不那麼有價值。

  • asset valuation changes and  this shift, if it is abrupt

    資產估值變化和這種轉變,如果它是突然的。

  • can be quite difficult for financial institutions.

    對金融機構來說,這可能是相當困難的。

  • More countries are committing to becoming carbon neutral in the coming decades,

    更多的國家正在承諾在未來幾十年內實現碳中和。

  • meaning they are trying to reduce emissions of CO2 and even capture greenhouse gases from the air.

    這意味著他們正在努力減少二氧化碳的排放,甚至從空氣中捕捉溫室氣體。

  • But this transition to carbon neutrality requires many businesses to change how they operate.

    但這種向碳中和的過渡需要許多企業改變他們的運作方式。

  • Let's imagine that an oil-producing company has not changed its business model to

    讓我們設想一下,一家石油生產公司沒有改變其商業模式,以

  • focus more on renewable sources of energy. As societies use less gasolinethis firm may lose value.

    更加關注可再生能源。隨著社會對汽油的使用減少,這家公司可能會失去價值。

  • It simply becomes less attractive to investors. If many companies end up losing value because they

    它對投資者的吸引力就會降低。如果許多公司最終失去價值,因為它們

  • aren't adjusting to a low-carbon society, then this could eventually spark a market sell-off too.

    如果不調整到低碳社會,那麼這最終也會引發市場拋售。

  • If this happens without too much preparation

    如果這種情況發生,沒有太多準備。

  • this can cause a kind ofshock to financial markets.

    這可能會對金融市場造成一種衝擊。

  • There might be some indirect effects through the interconnection of the financial system,

    通過金融系統的相互聯繫,可能會有一些間接影響。

  • I mean even those who might have already decided to invest more in green financial products,

    我的意思是,即使是那些可能已經決定更多地投資於綠色金融產品的人。

  • if the financial system overall has a problem, they might also see some losses.

    如果金融系統整體出現問題,他們可能也會看到一些損失。

  • We live in an interconnected world  and financial markets span the globe

    我們生活在一個相互關聯的世界,金融市場橫跨全球。

  • That's why a tsunami in Japan  or wildfires in California

    這就是為什麼日本的海嘯或加利福尼亞的野火

  • could have an impact on the  retirement plans of a worker in Italy 

    可能會對意大利工人的退休計劃產生影響

  • or on the stocks you bought using  platforms like Robinhood and eToro.

    或在你使用Robinhood和eToro等平臺購買的股票上。

  • One element that could lead investors to 

    有一個因素可能導致投資者

  • adjust their positions in  the market is a carbon tax.

    調整他們在市場上的位置是一個碳稅。

  • These levies are being discussed  in a wide range of countries and 

    許多國家和地區都在討論這些稅種。

  • would focus on taxing companies  according to their emissions.

    將側重於根據公司的排放量來徵稅。

  • By making these firms pay more, governments hope that they will be incentivized to pollute less.

    政府希望通過讓這些公司支付更多費用,激勵它們減少汙染。

  • If in the coming years, governments  realize that it is necessary 

    如果在未來幾年,政府意識到有必要

  • to act quickly in order to reduce emissions, they might therefore decide

    迅速採取行動以減少排放,是以他們可能決定

  • to increase carbon taxes very quickly within a short period of time,

    在很短的時間內迅速增加碳稅。

  • and this will be a problem  for those companies that 

    而這對那些在中國的公司來說,將是一個問題。

  • rely too much on gas, oilcoal for their production.

    過分依賴天然氣、石油、煤炭進行生產。

  • And then those banks that have  provided loans to these companies 

    然後那些向這些公司提供貸款的銀行

  • might not be in a position to remain stable.

    可能無法保持穩定。

  • So, what can be done to reduce the risks posed by climate change?

    那麼,可以做些什麼來減少氣候變化帶來的風險?

  • The very first and most important thing they need to do is to put in place policies and investments

    他們需要做的第一件也是最重要的事情是制定政策和投資

  • to shift towards the new climate economy, one that is low carbon and climate resilient,

    轉向新的氣候經濟,即低碳和具有氣候適應性的經濟。

  • but they also need to concentrate  on the financial system 

    但他們也需要專注於金融系統

  • because it is essential for the  functioning of our economies.

    因為它對我們的經濟運行至關重要。

  • In the European Union, governments are working on 

    在歐盟,各國政府正致力於

  • several measures as they  implement the European Green Deal.

    在實施歐洲綠色協議的過程中,他們採取了一些措施。

  • The plan aims to revitalize economic growth in the bloc whilst reducing the consumption of resources,

    該計劃旨在振興該集團的經濟增長,同時減少資源的消耗。

  • with a pledge to cut net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050.

    承諾到2050年將溫室氣體淨排放量減少到零。

  • In addition, the U.S. has also promised to halve emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 levels.

    此外,美國還承諾到2030年將排放量比2005年的水準減少一半。

  • Japan, Canada and even China have also announced plans to reduce emissions in the coming years.

    日本、加拿大甚至中國也宣佈了未來幾年的減排計劃。

  • Central banks, charged with  ensuring economic stability

    中央銀行,負責確保經濟穩定。

  • have also started studying how to  tackle climate risks in their policies.

    也已經開始研究如何在其政策中解決氣候風險。

  • Climate change is the biggest challenge we face 

    氣候變化是我們面臨的最大挑戰

  • but it is also the greatest  opportunity of our lifetimes

    但這也是我們一生中最大的機會

  • because managing climate risks is taxing, but the way we do it

    因為管理氣候風險是很費力的,但我們的方式是

  • by investing in climate  resilience and new technologies

    通過投資於氣候復原力和新技術。

  • offers opportunities for  green growth and green jobs.

    為綠色增長和綠色就業提供了機會。

  • Investing in a low-carbon society may have wider economic benefits too.

    投資於低碳社會可能也有更廣泛的經濟利益。

  • An initial 5% of GDP green investment push combined with gradually increasing carbon prices

    最初佔GDP5%的綠色投資推動與逐步提高的碳價格相結合

  • and attention to those that are affected negatively from the transition,

    並關注那些因過渡而受到負面影響的人。

  • this can be very beneficial  for the world economy,

    這可能對世界經濟非常有利。

  • it can increase growth by 0.7% on an  annual basis over the next 15 years.

    它可以在未來15年內每年增加0.7%的增長。

  • Hi everyone, thank you so much for watching.

    大家好,非常感謝你們的觀看。

  • Are you worried about the risks that climate change could pose to your savings and investments?

    你是否擔心氣候變化可能給你的儲蓄和投資帶來的風險?

  • Let us know in the comments section, and I will see you soon.

    請在評論區告訴我們,我很快就會看到你。

Hurricane Katrina, one of the  most destructive natural disasters 

卡特里娜颶風,最具破壞性的自然災害之一

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為什麼氣候變化是一顆正在滴答作響的經濟定時炸彈(以及我們能做些什麼)| CNBC報道 (Why climate change is a ticking economic time bomb (and what we can do about it) | CNBC Reports)

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    Summer 發佈於 2021 年 05 月 06 日
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