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The writer George Eliot cautioned us that,
作家喬治‧艾略特 (George Eliot) 曾警告我們,
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among all forms of mistake,
在所有類型的錯誤之中,
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prophecy is the most gratuitous.
預言是最沒根據的,
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The person that we would all acknowledge
我們都要感謝這位作家。
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as her 20th-century counterpart, Yogi Berra, agreed.
就是二十世紀的尤吉‧貝拉 (Yogi Berra) 也同意,
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He said, "It's tough to make predictions,
他說:「預測很困難,
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especially about the future."
尤其對未來的預測。」
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I'm going to ignore their cautions
我不理會他們的警告,
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and make one very specific forecast.
而且作出一項特別的預測。
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In the world that we are creating very quickly,
現今的我們創造步調很快,
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we're going to see more and more things
我們將要看到,
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that look like science fiction,
像科幻小說一樣的東西越來越多
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and fewer and fewer things that look like jobs.
而像工作的事越來越少
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Our cars are very quickly going to start driving themselves,
在不久將來,汽車懂得自行駕駛,
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which means we're going to need fewer truck drivers.
意味著我們需要更少的貨車司機,
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We're going to hook Siri up to Watson
我們把 Siri 虛擬個人助理與 IBM 超級電腦華生連接起來,
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and use that to automate a lot of the work
並使用這些虛擬助理,自動執行大量工作,
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that's currently done by customer service reps
而現時這些工作須由客服處理、
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and troubleshooters and diagnosers,
解答疑難問題和診斷。
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and we're already taking R2D2,
我們已經使用阿凸(R2D2),
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painting him orange, and putting him to work
替他塗上橙色,把他投入工作,
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carrying shelves around warehouses,
叫他到倉庫拿貨,
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which means we need a lot fewer people
意味著我們不需要那麼多的工人
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to be walking up and down those aisles.
在走道上走來走去。
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Now, for about 200 years,
約二百年來人們一直在說的,
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people have been saying exactly what I'm telling you --
同時也是我現在告訴你們的 —
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the age of technological unemployment is at hand —
這年代因科技而產生的失業問題,就在眼前 —
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starting with the Luddites smashing looms in Britain
由英國勒德分子 (Luddites) 搗毀織布機開始,
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just about two centuries ago,
大約兩個世紀前,
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and they have been wrong.
他們一直是錯的。
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Our economies in the developed world have coasted along
已發展國家的經濟
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on something pretty close to full employment.
幾乎無法實現全民就業。
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Which brings up a critical question:
這帶出了一條關鍵問題:
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Why is this time different, if it really is?
為什麼這次不一樣了,真的不一樣嗎?
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The reason it's different is that, just in the past few years,
不一樣的原因是,在過去的幾年,
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our machines have started demonstrating skills
我們的機器開始有了
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they have never, ever had before:
一些前所未見的能力
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understanding, speaking, hearing, seeing,
理解、說話、聆聽、觀看、
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answering, writing, and they're still acquiring new skills.
答問、書寫,他們仍在學習新的技巧,
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For example, mobile humanoid robots
例如:行動人型機器人
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are still incredibly primitive,
仍是令人難以置信的原始,
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but the research arm of the Defense Department
但是國防部的研究部門
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just launched a competition
剛剛發起了一場競賽,
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to have them do things like this,
使他們製造一些類似東西,
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and if the track record is any guide,
如果跟據過往成績紀錄以作參考,
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this competition is going to be successful.
這樣的競賽將會成功。
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So when I look around, I think the day is not too far off at all
現在看起來,我猜想這日子離我們不遠了
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when we're going to have androids
人型機器人將會做很多的事,
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doing a lot of the work that we are doing right now.
做很多目前人們在的工作
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And we're creating a world where there is going to be
我們正在創造一個世界,那裡擁有
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more and more technology and fewer and fewer jobs.
的科技越來越多,職位卻越來越少,
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It's a world that Erik Brynjolfsson and I are calling
艾瑞克‧班恩約福森 (Erik Brynjolfsson) 和我叫這世界為
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"the new machine age."
「新機器時代」。
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The thing to keep in mind is that
我們要牢記
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this is absolutely great news.
這絕對是個好消息,
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This is the best economic news on the planet these days.
這些日子裡,在這顆星球上,最大的經濟新聞。
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Not that there's a lot of competition, right?
並不是那麼多競爭,對嗎?
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This is the best economic news we have these days
就是這些裡最大的經濟新聞,
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for two main reasons.
原因有二:
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The first is, technological progress is what allows us
首先,科技進步容許我們
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to continue this amazing recent run that we're on
繼續這項驚人的運作,而運作正進行中,
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where output goes up over time,
產量已持續上升了一段時間,
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while at the same time, prices go down,
而同一時間,價格卻在下降,
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and volume and quality just continue to explode.
數量和質量不斷爆發。
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Now, some people look at this and talk about
現在,有些人看看這個情況,並且談論起
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shallow materialism,
墮落物質主義,
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but that's absolutely the wrong way to look at it.
但是,這絕對是錯誤的看法,
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This is abundance, which is exactly
我們的經濟體系提供數量龐大的供應,
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what we want our economic system to provide.
這也正是我們所期待的。
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The second reason that the new machine age
新機器時代是一項好消息的
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is such great news is that, once the androids
第二個原因為,一旦人型機器人
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start doing jobs, we don't have to do them anymore,
開始做這些工作,那麼我們不需要做同樣的工作了,
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and we get freed up from drudgery and toil.
可從苦差和勞碌工作中得到釋放。
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Now, when I talk about this with my friends
現在當我和身在劍橋 (麻省)
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in Cambridge and Silicon Valley, they say,
和矽谷的朋友們說起這話題時,他們說:
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"Fantastic. No more drudgery, no more toil.
「極好的。再沒有苦差,再沒有勞碌的工作。
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This gives us the chance to imagine
這樣就給我們機會去想像
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an entirely different kind of society,
一個完全不同的社會,
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a society where the creators and the discoverers
在這裡,創作人、發現者、
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and the performers and the innovators
表演者、創新者、
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come together with their patrons and their financiers
與他們的贊助者和融資者一起,
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to talk about issues, entertain, enlighten,
談及不同議題,並款待、開導、
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provoke each other."
挑釁彼此。」
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It's a society really, that looks a lot like the TED Conference.
這樣的社會看起來真的就像一場 TED 研習會,
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And there's actually a huge amount of truth here.
而事實上這裡有許多真理。
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We are seeing an amazing flourishing taking place.
我們看到令人驚異的百花齊放,
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In a world where it is just about as easy
在這世界,產生一件物體
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to generate an object as it is to print a document,
就像打印一份文件那麼的容易,
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we have amazing new possibilities.
我們有異乎尋常的新可能,
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The people who used to be craftsmen and hobbyists
過往的技工、業餘愛好者,
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are now makers, and they're responsible
現在成為了製造業者,他們負責
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for massive amounts of innovation.
大量的創新,
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And artists who were formerly constrained
而藝術家過往因種種制約
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can now do things that were never, ever possible
而未能做到的事,
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for them before.
現在可做到了。
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So this is a time of great flourishing,
所以,現在就是繁華昌盛的年代,
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and the more I look around, the more convinced I become
我越看得多,我更加堅信
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that this quote, from the physicist Freeman Dyson,
物理學家弗里曼‧戴森 (Freeman Dyson) 所說的
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is not hyperbolic at all.
根本不是誇飾,
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This is just a plain statement of the facts.
只是簡單清楚的事實陳述。
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We are in the middle of an astonishing period.
我們正處於令人驚訝的時期當中。
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["Technology is a gift of God. After the gift of life it is perhaps the greatest of God's gifts. It is the mother of civilizations, of arts and of sciences." — Freeman Dyson]
「科技是上帝賜予的禮物。繼生命的禮物之後,這可是上帝賜予的最大禮物。這是一切文明、藝術、科學之母。」 — 弗里曼‧戴森
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Which brings up another great question:
這帶來另一個大問題,
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What could possibly go wrong in this new machine age?
在這個新機器時代,可會在什麼樣的情況下出錯呢?
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Right? Great, hang up, flourish, go home.
對嗎?很好、拖延、繁榮、回家,
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We're going to face two really thorny sets of challenges
我們正面對兩項相當棘手的挑戰,
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as we head deeper into the future that we're creating.
尤其當我們朝著我們創造的未來一步步前進,
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The first are economic, and they're really nicely summarized
第一是經濟上的,一個未經證實的故事
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in an apocryphal story about a back-and-forth
貼切地做了總結
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between Henry Ford II and Walter Reuther,
那是亨利‧福特二世與華特‧魯瑟之間的反覆答問,
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who was the head of the auto workers union.
華特‧魯瑟是汽車工會領袖,
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They were touring one of the new modern factories,
他們在新的現代化工廠巡視中,
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and Ford playfully turns to Reuther and says,
福特以開玩笑的口吻對魯瑟說:
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"Hey Walter, how are you going to get these robots
「你如何要這些機械人們
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to pay union dues?"
向你的工會交會費?」
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And Reuther shoots back, "Hey Henry,
魯瑟連珠發炮般回應對方:「嘿,亨利,
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how are you going to get them to buy cars?"
你怎樣使它們購買你的汽車?」
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Reuther's problem in that anecdote
這段趣聞軼事中魯瑟的問題是,
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is that it is tough to offer your labor to an economy
你很難向一個經濟體提供勞動力,
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that's full of machines,
而這個經濟體滿是機械人。
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and we see this very clearly in the statistics.
統計讓我們看清楚這件事,
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If you look over the past couple decades
如果你回望過去幾十年的
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at the returns to capital -- in other words, corporate profits --
資本收益率,換句話說即是企業利潤,
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we see them going up,
我們見到持續上升,
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and we see that they're now at an all-time high.
現在利潤看起來是空前的高,
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If we look at the returns to labor, in other words
如果我們看一下工作回報,簡言之,
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total wages paid out in the economy,
在整個經濟裡,資方所給付的總工資,
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we see them at an all-time low
我們看到工資卻是空前的低,
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and heading very quickly in the opposite direction.
而且兩者快速向相反方向而行,
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So this is clearly bad news for Reuther.
所以對魯瑟來說,這真是一則壞消息,
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It looks like it might be great news for Ford,
對福特來說,看起來倒像是一則好消息,
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but it's actually not. If you want to sell
然而實際上並不是好消息。如果你想
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huge volumes of somewhat expensive goods to people,
向人們銷售大批價格稍微高一點的貨品,
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you really want a large, stable, prosperous middle class.
你就真的想要一群穩定的、富足的、為數可觀的中產階級,
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We have had one of those in America
在美國我們就有這樣的一群,
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for just about the entire postwar period.
約在整段戰後的時期,
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But the middle class is clearly under huge threat right now.
然而中產階級明顯地正遭逢巨大的威脅,
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We all know a lot of the statistics,
我們都知道許多的統計資料,
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but just to repeat one of them,
這裡只是重複一項罷,
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median income in America has actually gone down
事實上,美國的收入中位數
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over the past 15 years,
在過去 15 年都下跌了,
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and we're in danger of getting trapped
而我們身在危險中,
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in some vicious cycle where inequality and polarization
受困於惡性的循環,不平等現象和兩極分化
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continue to go up over time.
經過一段時間後繼續往上走,
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The societal challenges that come along
我們要留意那些社會上的不公平。
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with that kind of inequality deserve some attention.
我們要留意那些社會上的不公平。
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There are a set of societal challenges
事實上我並不擔心
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that I'm actually not that worried about,
那一連串的社會挑戰,
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and they're captured by images like this.
他們被這樣形容,
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This is not the kind of societal problem
但這並不是我所關心的
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that I am concerned about.
社會問題種類。
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There is no shortage of dystopian visions
反烏托邦的願景並不短缺,
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about what happens when our machines become self-aware,
當我們的機器變為擁有自我意識時,
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and they decide to rise up and coordinate attacks against us.
而機械人決定揭竿起義,並聯合起來攻擊我們,
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I'm going to start worrying about those
我開始擔心終有一天,
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the day my computer becomes aware of my printer.
我的電腦察覺到我的印表機,
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(Laughter) (Applause)
(笑聲) (掌聲)
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So this is not the set of challenges we really need to worry about.
所以這不是我們真正需要擔心的挑戰,
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To tell you the kinds of societal challenges
為了告訴你在新機器時代
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that are going to come up in the new machine age,
將面對的各種社會挑戰,
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I want to tell a story about two stereotypical American workers.
我想告訴你一個故事,是關於兩個陳規定型的美國工人,
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And to make them really stereotypical,
為使故事讀來真的是刻板印象的,
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let's make them both white guys.
就當他們是兩個白種男人罷,
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And the first one is a college-educated
第一個是受過大學教育的,
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professional, creative type, manager,
專業、創作型的、經理、
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engineer, doctor, lawyer, that kind of worker.
工程師、醫師、律師、那類型的工作者,
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We're going to call him "Ted."
我們稱他為「泰德」,
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He's at the top of the American middle class.
他位處美國中產階級的頂端。
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His counterpart is not college-educated
另一個並沒有接受大學教育,
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and works as a laborer, works as a clerk,
他是一個勞動者、普通文員、
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does low-level white collar or blue collar work in the economy.
做一些低級白領或藍領階級的工作,
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We're going to call that guy "Bill."
我們稱他為「比爾」。
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And if you go back about 50 years,
如果你回到大約五十年前,
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Bill and Ted were leading remarkably similar lives.
比爾和泰德過著極其相似的生活,
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For example, in 1960 they were both very likely
例如:在 1960 年,他們倆極有可能
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to have full-time jobs, working at least 40 hours a week.
同樣得到全職職位,每週工作總時數至少四十小時,
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But as the social researcher Charles Murray has documented,
但是社會研究員查爾斯‧麥瑞 (Charles Murray) 用文件證明了,
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as we started to automate the economy,
當我們開始建立自動化時,
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and 1960 is just about when computers started to be used by businesses,
而 1960 年就是我們在日常工作中剛剛開始使用電腦的時候,
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as we started to progressively inject technology
我們開始逐步向市場經濟
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and automation and digital stuff into the economy,
注入科技、自動化、數位化的東西,
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the fortunes of Bill and Ted diverged a lot.
比爾和泰德兩人的財富就此各走各路。
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Over this time frame, Ted has continued
經過一段時間後,泰德繼續
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to hold a full-time job. Bill hasn't.
持有一份全職工作,比爾則沒有全職工作,
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In many cases, Bill has left the economy entirely,
在許多情況下,比爾完全離開了經濟體系,
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and Ted very rarely has.
而泰德則很少離開。
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Over time, Ted's marriage has stayed quite happy.
過了一段時間後,泰德的婚姻仍然幸福美滿,
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Bill's hasn't.
比爾的卻不美滿,
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And Ted's kids have grown up in a two-parent home,
泰德的小孩在健全完整的家庭中長大,
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while Bill's absolutely have not over time.
然而長時間來看, 比爾的小孩卻不是。
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Other ways that Bill is dropping out of society?
那麼比爾是否退出了社會?
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He's decreased his voting in presidential elections,
他總統選舉的投票次數減少了
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and he's started to go to prison a lot more often.
而他更開始進出監獄,次數漸多,
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So I cannot tell a happy story about these social trends,
我並不是在陳述一個令人開心的社會潮流
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and they don't show any signs of reversing themselves.
他們沒有任何可扭轉人生的機會
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They're also true no matter which ethnic group
無論哪個民族
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or demographic group we look at,
或人口的數量分布結構,他們也都如此,
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and they're actually getting so severe
實際上,他們變得如此嚴重,
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that they're in danger of overwhelming
有覆沒的危險,
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even the amazing progress we made with the Civil Rights Movement.
即使我們在民權運動取得驚人的進展。
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And what my friends in Silicon Valley
而我在矽谷和在劍橋(麻省)的朋友
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and Cambridge are overlooking is that they're Ted.
所忽略的,就是他們是泰德,
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They're living these amazingly busy, productive lives,
他們過著這些異常忙碌兼有意義的生活,
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and they've got all the benefits to show from that,
從那裡看到,他們得到了所有優勢,
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while Bill is leading a very different life.
而比爾則過著非常不同的生活。
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They're actually both proof of how right Voltaire was
實際上他們都證實了伏爾泰談到工作的好處,
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when he talked about the benefits of work,
他所說的都是正確,
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and the fact that it saves us from not one but three great evils.
事實是工作救我們脫離不只一種而是三種大惡,
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["Work saves a man from three great evils: boredom, vice and need." — Voltaire]
「工作使人遠離三種罪惡:無聊、惡習和匱乏。」 — 伏爾泰如是說。
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So with these challenges, what do we do about them?
所以我們面對這些挑戰時應做什麼呢?
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The economic playbook is surprisingly clear,
經濟劇本是出奇的清晰,
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surprisingly straightforward, in the short term especially.
出奇的直截了當,特別是短期內,
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The robots are not going to take all of our jobs in the next year or two,
在未來一至兩年,機械人不會拿走我們所有的職位,
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so the classic Econ 101 playbook is going to work just fine:
所以經典的經濟學 101 劇本仍可有效運用於實際情況,
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Encourage entrepreneurship,
鼓勵創業、
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double down on infrastructure,
下兩倍注在基礎設施的投資、
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and make sure we're turning out people
確定我們教育系統培養出來的學生
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from our educational system with the appropriate skills.
配搭適合的技能,
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But over the longer term, if we are moving into an economy
但就長遠來看,即將來臨的經濟是
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that's heavy on technology and light on labor,
注重科技而看輕勞工,
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and we are, then we have to consider
我們必須考慮
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some more radical interventions,
一些較為激進的干預,
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for example, something like a guaranteed minimum income.
例如:類似最低薪資保障的事物,
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Now, that's probably making some folk in this room uncomfortable,
現在也許使這房間裡的一些人感到不舒服,
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because that idea is associated with the extreme left wing
因為這意念與極端左翼相關聯的,
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and with fairly radical schemes for redistributing wealth.
也與財富重新分配的激進計劃有所關聯。
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I did a little bit of research on this notion,
我對這概念做了些少的研究,
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and it might calm some folk down to know that
也許使那些人平靜下來,
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the idea of a net guaranteed minimum income
最低薪資保障是受到
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has been championed by those frothing-at-the-mouth socialists
口吐白沫的社會主義者維護支持 -
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Friedrich Hayek, Richard Nixon and Milton Friedman.
弗里德里希‧海耶克、理察‧尼克森、米爾頓‧弗里德曼。
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And if you find yourself worried
如果你擔心
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that something like a guaranteed income
薪資保障類似的事物
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is going to stifle our drive to succeed
會扼殺我們的成功驅動力,
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and make us kind of complacent,
並使我們自滿,
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you might be interested to know that social mobility,
你或許有興趣知道,
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one of the things we really pride ourselves on in the United States,
我們在美國確實感到自豪的其中一件事就是,
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is now lower than it is in the northern European countries
社會流動性較北歐國家來得低,
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that have these very generous social safety nets.
其社會安全網可算是非常慷慨的,
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So the economic playbook is actually pretty straightforward.
所以其經濟劇本實際上非常簡單直接,
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The societal one is a lot more challenging.
社會劇本更為富有挑戰。
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I don't know what the playbook is
我並不知道什麼劇本