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  • Is the world reaching peak meat?


  • In 2020, slowing consumption of beef and pork has been exacerbated by a variety of factors.

    2020 年時,多種原因惡化了牛肉和豬肉的消耗量趨緩。

  • First, the coronavirus pandemic has led to numerous closures of US and European slaughterhouses.


  • That's affected supply in the short-term, but how the virus will affect the 1.4-trillion-dollar global market in the longer-term remains unclear.

    這影響了短期的供應,但疫情會如何長期影響 1.4 億美元的全球市場還是未知數。

  • Before the pandemic, though, meat consumption was showing signs of having peaked in developed countries.


  • Thanks to health scares, plus environmental and sustainability concerns.


  • OECD data indicated that the US, which is still the biggest consumer of meat per capita, would hit a high point in 2020.

    經濟合作暨發展組織數據指出美國仍是人均消耗最多肉類的國家,在 2020 年更會創下新高。

  • The country's consumption would then plateau over the next decade.


  • A similar trend was estimated for the EU.


  • One country that will make a profound difference to global meat consumption is China, which accounts for almost a third of the total meat eaten.


  • China consumes about half the world's pork, but since 2018, African swine fever has killed more than 100 million pigs there, cramping supply and pushing pork prices up to record highs.

    中國消耗全球近一半的豬肉,但從 2018 年起,非洲豬瘟奪走了一億條豬的性命。導致供應緊張,豬肉價格攀升至歷史新高。

  • But even before the outbreak, consumption had been leveling off.


  • The country saw peak pork in 2014.

    該國在 2014 年就出現過豬肉高峰。

  • In fact, a 2018 report from the OECD and the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization suggests China's demand for meat will slow considerably over growing health concerns and a peak in the country's population before 2030.

    事實上,2018 年一項經濟合作暨發展組織和聯合國糧食及農業組織的報告指出:中國在 2030 年人口數達到巔峰前,對肉類的需求會因為逐漸增加的健康問題而大量減少。

  • The troubles facing the meat industry haven't hurt plant-based meats' prospects.


  • More money flowed into companies making plant-based and cell-cultured meat, eggs, and dairy in the first quarter of 2020 than in the whole of last year.

    光是 2020 年的第一季就比去年一整年多了更多資金投入製造植物性肉類和細胞培養肉類、雞蛋和乳製品的公司。

  • In China, interest in alternative proteins was already rising before the pandemic, thanks to swine flu.


  • Within a generation, the market for meat could look very different.


Is the world reaching peak meat?


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