Name: 下一次房市崩盤--5個信號 (The Next Housing Crash - 5 Signs)
Uploaded: 2021-04-06T17:56:04.000Z
Duration: 9 min 38 s

What happens when house prices rise through the roof?

轉承詞

Because, unfortunately, that's how it works.

因為，不幸的是，這就是它的工作方式。

Last year house price increased by double digits.

If you compare that to other assets such as stocks, that might not seem high; however,

如果與股票等其他資產相比，可能看起來並不高；但是。

a double-digit rise in real estate is a sign of a bubble.

房地產的兩位數上漲是保麗龍的標誌。

The housing market didn't emerge yesterday like cryptocurrencies.

昨天的房市並沒有像加密貨幣一樣出現。

It's a well-established market that grows by around 2 percent annually to catch up with

這是一個成熟的市場，每年以2%左右的速度增長，以趕上

However, when prices started rising slightly faster as they did in 2008, the market crashed.

然而，當價格開始像2008年那樣以稍快的速度上漲時，市場就崩潰了。

With such low interest rates, it was not easy to sit aside and not take a mortgage, or at

在如此低的利率下，要想坐享其成，不做房貸，或者在

least refinance your house because even a one percent difference in your mortgage rate

至少再融資，因為哪怕是百分之一的按揭利率差異

is going to make a huge difference in the long run.

從長遠來看，是會產生巨大的變化。

Let's say rates do rise a full 1 percent by the end of the year.

假設今年年底前利率真的上漲了整整1%。

How much does a 1% difference in a mortgage rate make?

If your loan is 200K dollars, a 1% difference means you will pay an additional $35,935 over

如果你的貸款額度是20萬，1%的差額意味著你要多付35,935元的費用

That's a lot of money if you ask me, and we didn't even take into account the opportunity

如果你問我，這可是一大筆錢，而且我們甚至沒有考慮到這個機會

cost of that money, which means how much that money would have grown if you have invested

的成本，也就是說，如果你投資了這些錢，這些錢會增長多少？

A 1 percent difference on a 200K dollar loan equals an additional $239, which equals 518K

20萬的貸款差1%，等於多了239元，相當於51.8萬元

dollars if you invest it in the s&p500 for 30 years, assuming you will get a 10 percent

美元，如果你將它投資於標準普爾500指數30年，假設你將獲得10%的收益。

Imagine if you negotiate and get a slightly lower rate.

想象一下，如果你談判，得到的利率稍微低一些。

You will end up with an extra half a million dollars when you retire.

當你退休後，你最終會多出50萬美金。

I think that's something worth considering.

What if your mortgage is 300K or 400K dollars?

That number would be significantly higher.

If you borrow $400,000, you will pay an additional $71,870 in interest over 30 years or $477

如果你借了400,000元，你將在30年內額外支付71,870元的利息，即477元。

If you count the opportunity cost, it would equal $1,035,720.

如果算上機會成本，等於1,035,720元。

that's why whenever you take a mortgage, the number one thing you should pay attention

所以每當你辦理抵押貸款時，你首先要注意的是

So when the fed lowered interest rates to almost 0 percent.

所以當美聯儲將利率降到近0%時。

Everyone who had the opportunity to get a mortgage did actually take a mortgage which

每一個有機會獲得抵押貸款的人，其實都做了抵押貸款，這

led real estate prices to rise significantly in the middle of a pandemic.

導致房地產價格在大流行中大幅上漲。

Real estate prices didn't just rise, but they rose faster than income, which means fewer

房地產價格不僅僅是上漲，而且上漲的速度比收入快，這意味著少了

people can afford a house now, but because mortgage rates were so low, it still made

現在人們可以買得起房子，但由於抵押貸款利率太低，它仍然使

But what happens when mortgage rates will rise?

Which eventually will happen, the demand will significantly slow down, which could cause

這最終會發生，需求將明顯放緩，這可能會導致。

Another factor that we have to consider is rent prices.

我們要考慮的另一個因素是租金價格。

Usually, rent prices go hand in hand with house prices, sometimes one grows faster than

通常情況下，房租價格與房價齊頭並進，有時一個的增長速度會比

the other but not by a huge difference like it happened last year.

另一個，但不像去年那樣相差懸殊。

Which led man experts to believe that we might be repeating the same path as we did in 2008.

這讓人類專家認為，我們可能會重蹈2008年的覆轍。

If the fed didn't intervene last year, then we definitely would have had a real estate

如果去年美聯儲不干預，那麼我們肯定會有一個房地產的

collapse since most people wouldn't be able to pay off their mortgages.

崩潰，因為大多數人將無法償還他們的抵押貸款。

Most people live paycheque to paycheque, and the only reason they qualified for that mortgage

大多數人都是靠薪水過日子的，他們有資格獲得抵押貸款的唯一原因是

is because they had a constant stream of income.

是因為他們有源源不斷的收入。

But when millions of people suddenly can't make their monthly payments, the bank will

但是，當數百萬人突然無法支付月供時，銀行將

freak out and start selling these homes to make up the payments, but that means there

嚇壞了，並開始賣掉這些房子來補繳，但這意味著有

will be an oversupply of houses in the market which will drive the price down, which will

市場上的房子將供不應求，這將促使價格下降，這將使

Therefore the government said - listen, guys, you can take one year break from your mortgage

是以，政府說--聽著，夥計們，你們可以休學一年的房貸了

即使你有能力支付，也要支付。

That was the main reason why the market didn't collapse, but what happens when the forbearance

這也是市場沒有崩盤的主要原因，但當忍無可忍的時候，會發生什麼？

period is over, and the economy hasn't entire recovered yet.

期已經結束，經濟還沒有整個復甦。

When people have to make their mortgage payments, but they don't have the financial ability

當人們不得不支付按揭貸款，但他們沒有經濟能力的時候

Especially since prices were rising faster than ever, and that creates the expectation

尤其是物價上漲的速度比以往任何時候都快，這就產生了期望值。

That expectation attracts speculators who invest in the market, hoping to profit from

這種預期吸引了一些投機者，他們投資市場，希望能從

This further increases demand and prices, causing the bubble to stretch and grow.

這進一步增加了需求和價格，導致保麗龍的延伸和增長。

And on one beautiful day, it's going to burst.

而在一個美麗的日子裡，它要爆發了。

In 2008, mortgages were not regulated much, so banks started giving loans randomly.

2008年，房貸監管力度不大，所以銀行開始隨意發放貸款。

I am not saying that sarcastically, but that's literally what happened.

我不是在諷刺你，但事實就是如此。

Mortgage underwriting got so sloppy during the housing bubble that some lenders were

在房地產保麗龍期間，抵押貸款的核銷變得如此粗放，以至於一些貸款人被認為是

giving out "ninja" loans—no income verification, no job verification, nothing.

給出 "忍者 "貸款--沒有收入驗證，沒有工作驗證，什麼都沒有。

On the other side, developers were building houses faster than the U.S. population could

另一方面，開發商建造房屋的速度比美國人口的速度還要快。

It took a while, but eventually, prices plunged, people defaulted on their mortgages, and the

花了一段時間，但最終，價格暴跌，人們違約抵押貸款，以及。

U.S. economy crashed, helping bring down the global economy with it.

美國經濟崩盤，助推全球經濟一起下滑。

When values crashed, some of these homeowners were unable to keep making payments.

當價值崩潰時，其中一些房主無法繼續支付。

And they couldn't sell the home for the amount they owed.

而他們又不能把房子賣出他們所欠的金額。

Banks didn't care much since they would take these mortgages, bundle them together and

銀行並不太在意，因為他們會把這些抵押貸款，捆綁在一起，然後... ...

sell them to investors in the form of securities.

以證券形式將其出售給投資者；

That's why these banks kept calling people to convince them to take a mortgage and didn't

所以這些銀行才會不停地給人打電話，說服他們去做抵押貸款，而沒有

even require them to provide any documentation.

It made sense because everyone thought that home prices will always rise, isn't that what

這是有道理的，因為大家都認為房價會一直上漲，這不就是

If you give it a closer look, the housing market today is nothing like in the 2000s.

如果你仔細觀察，今天的房市與2000年完全不同。

No one is getting a mortgage unless they can prove that they can pay it off.

除非他們能證明自己有能力還清貸款，否則沒有人會獲得抵押貸款。

Secondly, The homeowner vacancy rate is 0.9%, the lowest in the U.S. since 1956.

其次，房主空置率為0.9%，是美國自1956年以來最低的。

In other words, there's a shortage of houses this time, not an excess.

換句話說，這次的房子是短缺的，而不是過剩的。

And when there is a shortage of supply in the market, the price naturally rise.

而當市場供不應求的時候，價格自然就會上漲。

Since the 2008 crash, home builders were very careful because the banks have been heavily

自2008年股災以來，建房者都非常小心，因為銀行重

regulated since then so there was no point to keep building new houses unless there is

是以，除非有足夠的資金，否則沒有必要繼續建造新的房屋。

No one expected that suddenly there is going to be a pandemic, and the fed will lower interest

誰也沒有想到，突然間會有一場大瘟疫，美聯儲會降息。

rates to 0 and mortgage rates would plummet to the bare minimum.

率為0，房貸利率將驟降到最低限度。

Remember at the beginning of the video where we talked about how big of a difference does

還記得在視頻的開始，我們談到了多大的區別，沒有。

a single percentage makes in the long run?

That's why so many people jumped to buy a house.

So even though home prices rose significantly, smaller mortgage payments still attract buyers.

所以即使房價大幅上漲，但較小的房貸額度仍然吸引著買家。

However, we also have to consider that 1 in 10 homeowners with a mortgage is behind on

但是，我們也要考慮到，每10個有房貸的房主中，就有1個拖欠了

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下一次房市崩盤--5個信號 (The Next Housing Crash - 5 Signs)

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