They collapse!

他們崩潰了！

Because, unfortunately, that's how it works.

因為，不幸的是，這就是它的工作方式。

Last year house price increased by double digits.

去年房價漲幅達兩位數。

If you compare that to other assets such as stocks, that might not seem high; however,

如果與股票等其他資產相比，可能看起來並不高；但是。

a double-digit rise in real estate is a sign of a bubble.

房地產的兩位數上漲是保麗龍的標誌。

The housing market didn't emerge yesterday like cryptocurrencies.

昨天的房市並沒有像加密貨幣一樣出現。

It's a well-established market that grows by around 2 percent annually to catch up with

這是一個成熟的市場，每年以2%左右的速度增長，以趕上

inflation.

通貨膨脹。

However, when prices started rising slightly faster as they did in 2008, the market crashed.

然而，當價格開始像2008年那樣以稍快的速度上漲時，市場就崩潰了。

With such low interest rates, it was not easy to sit aside and not take a mortgage, or at

在如此低的利率下，要想坐享其成，不做房貸，或者在

least refinance your house because even a one percent difference in your mortgage rate

至少再融資，因為哪怕是百分之一的按揭利率差異

is going to make a huge difference in the long run.

從長遠來看，是會產生巨大的變化。

Let's say rates do rise a full 1 percent by the end of the year.

假設今年年底前利率真的上漲了整整1%。

How much does a 1% difference in a mortgage rate make?

房貸利率相差1%有多少？

If your loan is 200K dollars, a 1% difference means you will pay an additional $35,935 over

如果你的貸款額度是20萬，1%的差額意味著你要多付35,935元的費用

30 years.

30年了

That's a lot of money if you ask me, and we didn't even take into account the opportunity

如果你問我，這可是一大筆錢，而且我們甚至沒有考慮到這個機會

cost of that money, which means how much that money would have grown if you have invested

的成本，也就是說，如果你投資了這些錢，這些錢會增長多少？

it.

它。

A 1 percent difference on a 200K dollar loan equals an additional $239, which equals 518K

20萬的貸款差1%，等於多了239元，相當於51.8萬元

dollars if you invest it in the s&p500 for 30 years, assuming you will get a 10 percent

美元，如果你將它投資於標準普爾500指數30年，假設你將獲得10%的收益。

rate of return in the long run.

長期來看，回報率。

Imagine if you negotiate and get a slightly lower rate.

想象一下，如果你談判，得到的利率稍微低一些。

You will end up with an extra half a million dollars when you retire.

當你退休後，你最終會多出50萬美金。

I think that's something worth considering.

我想這是值得考慮的事情。

What if your mortgage is 300K or 400K dollars?

如果你的房貸是30萬或40萬呢？

That number would be significantly higher.

這個數字會大大增加。

If you borrow $400,000, you will pay an additional $71,870 in interest over 30 years or $477

如果你借了400,000元，你將在30年內額外支付71,870元的利息，即477元。

every month.

每個月。

If you count the opportunity cost, it would equal $1,035,720.

如果算上機會成本，等於1,035,720元。

that's why whenever you take a mortgage, the number one thing you should pay attention

所以每當你辦理抵押貸款時，你首先要注意的是

to is your mortgage rate.

到是你的抵押貸款利率。

So when the fed lowered interest rates to almost 0 percent.

所以當美聯儲將利率降到近0%時。

Everyone who had the opportunity to get a mortgage did actually take a mortgage which

每一個有機會獲得抵押貸款的人，其實都做了抵押貸款，這

led real estate prices to rise significantly in the middle of a pandemic.

導致房地產價格在大流行中大幅上漲。

Real estate prices didn't just rise, but they rose faster than income, which means fewer

房地產價格不僅僅是上漲，而且上漲的速度比收入快，這意味著少了

people can afford a house now, but because mortgage rates were so low, it still made

現在人們可以買得起房子，但由於抵押貸款利率太低，它仍然使

economic sense to buy a house.

買房的經濟意義。

But what happens when mortgage rates will rise?

但房貸利率會上漲怎麼辦？

Which eventually will happen, the demand will significantly slow down, which could cause

這最終會發生，需求將明顯放緩，這可能會導致。

real estate prices to crash.

房地產價格要崩盤。

Another factor that we have to consider is rent prices.

我們要考慮的另一個因素是租金價格。

Usually, rent prices go hand in hand with house prices, sometimes one grows faster than

通常情況下，房租價格與房價齊頭並進，有時一個的增長速度會比

the other but not by a huge difference like it happened last year.

另一個，但不像去年那樣相差懸殊。

Which led man experts to believe that we might be repeating the same path as we did in 2008.

這讓人類專家認為，我們可能會重蹈2008年的覆轍。

If the fed didn't intervene last year, then we definitely would have had a real estate

如果去年美聯儲不干預，那麼我們肯定會有一個房地產的

collapse since most people wouldn't be able to pay off their mortgages.

崩潰，因為大多數人將無法償還他們的抵押貸款。

Most people live paycheque to paycheque, and the only reason they qualified for that mortgage

大多數人都是靠薪水過日子的，他們有資格獲得抵押貸款的唯一原因是

is because they had a constant stream of income.

是因為他們有源源不斷的收入。

But when millions of people suddenly can't make their monthly payments, the bank will

但是，當數百萬人突然無法支付月供時，銀行將

freak out and start selling these homes to make up the payments, but that means there

嚇壞了，並開始賣掉這些房子來補繳，但這意味著有

will be an oversupply of houses in the market which will drive the price down, which will

市場上的房子將供不應求，這將促使價格下降，這將使

crash the market.

崩潰市場。

The U.S. has already experienced that.

美國已經經歷過這種情況。

Therefore the government said - listen, guys, you can take one year break from your mortgage

是以，政府說--聽著，夥計們，你們可以休學一年的房貸了

payments even if you can afford it.

即使你有能力支付，也要支付。

That was the main reason why the market didn't collapse, but what happens when the forbearance

這也是市場沒有崩盤的主要原因，但當忍無可忍的時候，會發生什麼？

period is over, and the economy hasn't entire recovered yet.

期已經結束，經濟還沒有整個復甦。

When people have to make their mortgage payments, but they don't have the financial ability

當人們不得不支付按揭貸款，但他們沒有經濟能力的時候

to do that.

要做到這一點。

The pyramid will finally collapse!

金字塔終將坍塌!

Especially since prices were rising faster than ever, and that creates the expectation

尤其是物價上漲的速度比以往任何時候都快，這就產生了期望值。

of future rise.

的未來上升。

That expectation attracts speculators who invest in the market, hoping to profit from

這種預期吸引了一些投機者，他們投資市場，希望能從

the rising prices.

漲的價格。

This further increases demand and prices, causing the bubble to stretch and grow.

這進一步增加了需求和價格，導致保麗龍的延伸和增長。

And on one beautiful day, it's going to burst.

而在一個美麗的日子裡，它要爆發了。

In 2008, mortgages were not regulated much, so banks started giving loans randomly.

2008年，房貸監管力度不大，所以銀行開始隨意發放貸款。

I am not saying that sarcastically, but that's literally what happened.

我不是在諷刺你，但事實就是如此。

Mortgage underwriting got so sloppy during the housing bubble that some lenders were

在房地產保麗龍期間，抵押貸款的核銷變得如此粗放，以至於一些貸款人被認為是

giving out "ninja" loans—no income verification, no job verification, nothing.

給出 "忍者 "貸款--沒有收入驗證，沒有工作驗證，什麼都沒有。

On the other side, developers were building houses faster than the U.S. population could

另一方面，開發商建造房屋的速度比美國人口的速度還要快。

occupy them.

佔領它們。

It took a while, but eventually, prices plunged, people defaulted on their mortgages, and the

花了一段時間，但最終，價格暴跌，人們違約抵押貸款，以及。

U.S. economy crashed, helping bring down the global economy with it.

美國經濟崩盤，助推全球經濟一起下滑。

When values crashed, some of these homeowners were unable to keep making payments.

當價值崩潰時，其中一些房主無法繼續支付。

And they couldn't sell the home for the amount they owed.

而他們又不能把房子賣出他們所欠的金額。

Banks didn't care much since they would take these mortgages, bundle them together and

銀行並不太在意，因為他們會把這些抵押貸款，捆綁在一起，然後... ...

sell them to investors in the form of securities.

以證券形式將其出售給投資者；

That's why these banks kept calling people to convince them to take a mortgage and didn't

所以這些銀行才會不停地給人打電話，說服他們去做抵押貸款，而沒有

even require them to provide any documentation.

甚至要求他們提供任何文件。

It made sense because everyone thought that home prices will always rise, isn't that what

這是有道理的，因為大家都認為房價會一直上漲，這不就是

your parents told you!

你父母告訴你的！

However, the unexpected happened!

然而，意想不到的事情發生了!

If you give it a closer look, the housing market today is nothing like in the 2000s.

如果你仔細觀察，今天的房市與2000年完全不同。

No one is getting a mortgage unless they can prove that they can pay it off.

除非他們能證明自己有能力還清貸款，否則沒有人會獲得抵押貸款。

Secondly, The homeowner vacancy rate is 0.9%, the lowest in the U.S. since 1956.

其次，房主空置率為0.9%，是美國自1956年以來最低的。

In other words, there's a shortage of houses this time, not an excess.

換句話說，這次的房子是短缺的，而不是過剩的。

And when there is a shortage of supply in the market, the price naturally rise.

而當市場供不應求的時候，價格自然就會上漲。

Since the 2008 crash, home builders were very careful because the banks have been heavily

自2008年股災以來，建房者都非常小心，因為銀行重

regulated since then so there was no point to keep building new houses unless there is

是以，除非有足夠的資金，否則沒有必要繼續建造新的房屋。

a clear demand for them.

明確的需求。

No one expected that suddenly there is going to be a pandemic, and the fed will lower interest

誰也沒有想到，突然間會有一場大瘟疫，美聯儲會降息。

rates to 0 and mortgage rates would plummet to the bare minimum.

率為0，房貸利率將驟降到最低限度。

Remember at the beginning of the video where we talked about how big of a difference does

還記得在視頻的開始，我們談到了多大的區別，沒有。

a single percentage makes in the long run?

從長遠來看，單一的百分比使?

That's why so many people jumped to buy a house.

所以才有那麼多人跳樓買房。

So even though home prices rose significantly, smaller mortgage payments still attract buyers.

所以即使房價大幅上漲，但較小的房貸額度仍然吸引著買家。

However, we also have to consider that 1 in 10 homeowners with a mortgage is behind on

但是，我們也要考慮到，每10個有房貸的房主中，就有1個拖欠了

payments, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which could lead them to default

根據美國農業部的說法，這可能導致他們違約。

on their loan.

他們的貸款。

Of course, the forbearance program is going to be extended, but even if it's not, most

當然，忍耐計劃是要延長的，但即使不延長，大多數的

homeowners have accumulated substantial equity in their homes, so they could sell them and

房主已經積累了大量的房屋資產，所以他們可以出售房屋並

pay off their mortgages in full with no sweat, which wasn't the case in 2008 when the fall

汗水全額還清房貸，而2008年的秋季則不然

in prices caught people off-guard with big mortgages and little or no equity.

在價格方面，讓人們措手不及，大額抵押貸款和很少或沒有資產。

What's going to happen to the real estate market is entirely based on how well the fed

房地產市場會發生什麼，完全取決於美聯儲的好壞

is going to manage it.

是去管理它。

If the fed carefully lowers interest rates, there might not be any crash except that prices

如果美聯儲小心翼翼地降低利率，除了物價，可能不會出現任何崩盤的情況

will stop rising or may experience a small decline.

將停止上漲或可能出現小幅下跌。

But there won't be anything close to a crash.

但不會有任何接近崩潰的情況。

We also have to understand that the real estate market is not like the stock market that moves

我們也要明白，房地產市場不像股市那樣，動不動就

up down every single day.

上下每一天。

It's a well-established market that moves extremely slowly, and if anything like a crash

這是個成熟的市場，動作極其緩慢，如果有什麼類似崩盤的事情發生

is on the horizon, it's definitely not happening this year.

是在地平線上，今年肯定不會發生。

No one knows the future, and I could be entirely wrong.

沒有人知道未來，我也可能完全錯了。

Since we have recently came out of a real estate crisis, it's difficult to imagine that

由於我們最近剛從房地產危機中走出來，所以很難想象。

another one is on the horizon less 2 decades later.

另一個是在20年後的地平線上。

Meanwhile, if you have a mortgage and you haven't refinanced yet then you are missing

同時，如果你有房貸，而且還沒有再貸款，那麼你就錯過了。

an opportunity because getting a low fixed rate for 30 years is the best thing you can

機會，因為獲得30年的低固定利率是最好的事情。

wish for.

希望：

No matter what happens to the market, even those who didn't sell their houses back in

無論市場如何發展，即使是那些沒有賣掉房子的人，在回

2008 still saw their houses rise in value over time.

2008年，他們的房子還是隨著時間的推移而升值。

So anyone who got a low fixed 30 year old mortgage rate should be fine in the long run.

所以，凡是拿到30年固定房貸利率低的人，長期來看應該是沒有問題的。

By the way, we have a made a video on why everyone should invest in real estate on our

順便說一下，我們已經做了一個視頻，為什麼每個人都應該投資房地產在我們的。

second channel where we have explored the hidden benefits of investing in real estate.

第二個管道，我們已經探討了投資房地產的隱性效益。

Please go and check it out.

請去看看吧。

Make sure you subscribe to that channel.

確保你訂閱該頻道。

And now give this video a thumbs up if you have enjoyed it and subscribe if you are new

現在給這個視頻豎起大拇指，如果你喜歡它和訂閱，如果你是新的。

around here.

在這裡。

Thanks for watching and I will see you in the next one.

謝謝你的觀看，我們下期再見。