a correlation, it's natural to look for explanations or causes of it. This is called Reichenbach's Principle.

相關性，就自然而然地要尋找解釋或原因。這就是所謂的 "萊辛巴赫原理"。

But sometimes correlations occur just by chance, like those on the website “spurious correlations”

但有時相關性的發生只是偶然的，比如網站上的 "虛假相關性"

which selectively cherry-picks data points from different stats that randomly happen

它有選擇地從隨機發生的不同統計中挑選數據點。

to line up.

來排隊。

As an example of a chance correlation, if I flip two coins enough times, eventually

作為一個偶然相關的例子，如果我拋出兩枚硬幣的次數足夠多，最終

there'll be a long string of matching heads or tails just by chance, and if I just cherrypick

偶然會有一長串的頭尾相配，如果我只是隨便挑一挑的話

those flips I can make it look like the coins are super correlated.

這些翻轉，我可以讓它看起來像硬幣是超級相關的。

But when an apparent correlation is actually random in origin (like in this case), then

但是，當表面上的相關性實際上是隨機的（就像這種情況），那麼

if you keep looking at larger and larger samples, the correlation should go away.

如果你繼續觀察越來越大的樣本，相關性應該會消失。

This is it sometimes looks like particle physicists have discovered a new particle, only for that

這就是它有時看起來像粒子物理學家發現了一種新的粒子，只為這一點。

to go away when they collect more data.

當他們收集更多的數據時，就會消失。

Also, you may have noticed there was no mention of feedback loops in the main video – that's

另外，你可能已經注意到，在主視頻中沒有提到反饋迴路--那是

because, from a causal point of view, feedback loops, like how more grass means more sheep

因為，從因果關係來看，反饋循環，就像草越多意味著羊越多一樣。

means less grass means less sheep means more grass and so on – from a causal point of

草少意味著羊少意味著草多，以此類推--從因果關係來看

view, this isn't actually a loop.

觀點，這其實不是一個循環。

It's more of a chain, where the amount of grass and sheep now affect the amounts of

更多的是一個鏈條，現在草和羊的數量會影響到的數量。

grass and sheep next year, and the year after and so on, so from year to year there's

草和羊，明年，後年，以此類推，所以年年都有

feedback between the amount of grass and the amount of sheep which we kind of draw as a

草的數量和羊的數量之間的反饋，我們有點畫地為牢。

loop, but the causal relationship always goes from the present to the future, which we should

循環，但因果關係總是從現在到未來，我們應

draw as some sort of spirally helix thing.

畫成某種螺旋狀的螺旋物。