He's a licensed captain of the world's largest ships and author and founder of the shipping website captain dot com.

他是世界上最大船舶的持牌船長，也是作者和航運網站captain dot com的創始人。

Mr.

先生

Conrad, welcome to D.

康拉德，歡迎來到D。

W.

W.

From a captain's perspective.

從隊長的角度來看。

Tell me, how could it come to this right?

告訴我，怎麼會變成這樣對嗎？

These ships have gotten incredibly larger over just the last 10 years.

僅僅在過去的10年裡，這些船就變得大得驚人。

So in the last 10 years they've gone from about 10,000 container ships to 20,000 container ships.

所以在過去的10年裡，他們已經從大約1萬艘集裝箱船變成了2萬艘集裝箱船。

But as the size has increased the International Maritime Organization, the U.

但隨著規模的擴大，國際海事組織、美國。

N arm that does maritime in London, they have not increased the crew size, and they have not put new requirements for technology on the ship.

在倫敦做海事的N個部門，他們沒有增加船員人數，也沒有對船上的技術提出新的要求。

So you have significantly bigger ships and the same size crew, the same technology and really the same tug boats and equipment and navigating these ships.

是以，你有明顯更大的船和同樣規模的船員，同樣的技術和真正相同的拖船和設備和導航這些船。

And it's not just the length.

而且不僅僅是長度。

I mean, this ship is about 60 m longer than the biggest aircraft carriers in the world, but it's also the weight with a doubling of the number of containers on board.

我的意思是，這艘船比世界上最大的航空母艦還要長60米左右，但船上的貨櫃數量增加了一倍，這也是重量。

Uh, these ships weigh 2 to 300% more than the ships of 10 years ago, and again, we're using 10 20 year old technology on board.

呃，這些船比10年前的船重了2到300%，而且，我們在船上使用的是10年20年的技術。

Can gusts of wind really blows such a massive ship sideways?

陣風真的能把這麼龐大的船吹歪嗎？

As the owner of the ship says, Absolutely.

正如船主所說，當然。

As you stack these containers up higher, that's you know, you're a big steel wall where all the wind pushes against these containers at an incredible rate.

當你把這些貨櫃堆得更高的時候，你知道，你就是一堵巨大的鋼牆，所有的風都以驚人的速度推著這些貨櫃。

The average speed of transit through the canal is eight knots.

通過運河的平均速度為8節。

This ship was going 13 knots, and we believe it was going faster to try to provide the momentum and inertia to overcome those gusts of wind.

這艘船的速度是13節，我們相信它的速度會更快，以試圖提供動力和慣性來克服這些陣風。

But as you know, driving fast down a narrow passageway on the auto bond during construction.

但你也知道，在施工期間，在汽車債券的狹窄通道上快速行駛。

Uh, the faster you go, the more careful you have to be, especially when that wind comes and can easily, uh, push a ship like this or some of the new cruise ships.

呃，你走得越快，你就越要小心，尤其是當風來的時候，很容易，呃，把一艘像這樣的船或者一些新的遊輪推到。

Think of those All those cabins that are stacked stories high.

想想那些層層疊疊的小木屋吧。

That's another ship.

那是另一艘船

That can be easy.

這可以很容易。

Captain.

艦長

Captain, we only have about 30 seconds.

隊長，我們只有30秒的時間

I want to get this last question in which is the race to remove?

我想得到最後一個問題，在哪些比賽中刪除？

The blockage is proving extremely challenging.

事實證明，這種堵塞是極具挑戰性的。

How long do you think it will take to dislodge the ever given?

你覺得要多久才能解除常給的？

Well, there's a There's a lot of hope that next week in the higher high tide they can get some fuel out, and they can do what they're calling a back twist where they can corkscrew it out backwards after digging and dredging both ends.

很有希望在下週漲潮的時候 他們能弄出一些燃料來 他們可以進行所謂的反轉，在挖出兩端後 再把它反過來挖出來

If that doesn't work, they have to bring in fuel barges, take out the fuel, and then somewhere in the world, they have to find gigantic cranes on barges tall enough to reach those containers and start removing the weight so they can float it up higher.

如果不行的話，他們就得找來燃料駁船，把燃料取出來，然後在世界的某個地方，他們得找到足夠高的駁船上的巨大吊車，以便到達那些貨櫃，並開始卸下重量，這樣他們就可以把燃料漂到更高的地方。

But again, as Dr Marco Guiliano said, there is a risk of halt crack.

但又如Marco Guiliano博士所言，有停止裂縫的風險。

The ship was not designed, and every time the tide comes in and out, it's like bending a piece of metal.

這艘船沒有設計好，每次潮水湧入潮水流出的時候，就像彎曲了一塊金屬。

It's doing micro cracks in the hull and you do that enough time, and that could crack.

這是在做船體的微裂縫，你做的時間夠長了，那就可能開裂。

And that would take weeks.

而這需要幾個星期的時間。

At least.

至少是這樣

We'll have to stop it there.

我們必須停止在那裡。

Captain John Conrad really appreciate your time, Thank you very much, thank you.

約翰-康拉德隊長真的很感謝你的時間， 非常感謝，謝謝你。

Now taking a detour would lead to major delays for most shippers.

現在繞道而行，會導致大多數貨主的重大延誤。

Have a look at this map throughout through the canal is just 7000 kilometers long enough from the Arabian Sea to ports in the Mediterranean.

看看這張地圖，整個運河從阿拉伯海到地中海的港口只有7000公里長。

But the way around the Cape of Good Hope, this is the alternative route a whopping 20,000 kilometers.

但繞過好望角，這條另類路線的路程高達2萬公里。

Now, assuming that freighters are traveling around 25 knots, or about 45 kilometers an hour, that adds more than a week to their journey, the stock ship is costing the global economy billions as trade is delayed and desperately needed.

現在，假設貨輪的航速在25節左右，也就是每小時45公里左右，這就給它們的旅程增加了一個多星期的時間，由於貿易的延遲和急需，存量船給全球經濟造成了數十億的損失。

Goods cannot be delivered.

貨物無法交付。

They're doing what they can.

他們在做他們能做的事情。

But the 400 m long container ship won't budge.

但400米長的集裝箱船卻紋絲不動。

Diggers are at work on the bank alongside a vacuum excavator, which can suck up to 2000 cubic metres of sand and Iowa.

挖掘機正在岸邊的真空挖掘機旁工作，真空挖掘機可以吸走2000立方米的沙子和愛華。

No one really knows how long it'll take to dislodge the ship, estimates on when the vessel could be freed, varying from a few days to a few weeks in the worst case.

沒有人真正知道需要多長時間才能把船弄開，估計什麼時候能把船弄開，最壞的情況下從幾天到幾周不等。

But what I am quite surprised and maybe what I would maybe expect to start seeing soon, as if they are not successful in getting the vessel floated back.

但我相當驚訝的是，也許我也許會期望很快開始看到的，因為如果他們沒有成功地把船漂回來。

Naturally, then the next best option is naturally lighter.

自然，那麼次要的選擇自然是輕的。

The vessel so, which means they will have to bring small feeder container vessels next to the ship and start offloading part of the containers from the main ship into the smaller ones so that they were basically offloading the weight of the vessel in order to get it refloated.

船如此，這就意味著他們要把小型支線集裝箱船運到旁邊，開始把主船上的部分貨櫃卸到小船上，這樣他們基本上是在卸船的重量，以便讓船重新浮起。

Naturally, a lengthy salvage process would have wide reaching effects.

自然，漫長的搶救過程會產生廣泛的影響。

Oil prices have already risen due to the many oil tankers caught in the Suez traffic jam supply chains could also be affected because of missing parts.

由於許多油輪在蘇伊士交通堵塞中被困，油價已經上漲，供應鏈也可能因為缺少零件而受到影響。

Yet it's it's an absolutely essential part of our modern life, and this webcam would not have reached me without modern shipping and this computer and pretty much everything on my desk, because shipping still brings us 90% of everything.

然而，它是我們現代生活中絕對不可或缺的一部分，如果沒有現代航運和這臺電腦，以及我桌上的幾乎所有東西，這個攝像頭就不會到達我的手中，因為航運仍然給我們帶來90%的東西。

And I think in the UK it's 95% of everything, and we are absolutely fundamentally reliant on it.

而我認為在英國，95%的東西都是這樣的，我們絕對從根本上依賴它。

The massive container ship has been stuck between the Suez Canal's banks since Tuesday, blocking the waterway, which is critical for trade between Europe and Asia.

自週二以來，這艘巨大的集裝箱船一直卡在蘇伊士運河的兩岸之間，堵塞了這條對歐洲和亞洲之間的貿易至關重要的水道。

The incident is now a historic event for the 150 year old canal.

此事對於150年曆史的運河來說，已經是一個歷史性的事件。

All right for more on this I'm joined now by Klaus Brandt.

好的，現在克勞斯・勃蘭特將為我帶來更多的資訊。

He's managing director of the German Maritime Center in Hamburg.

他是漢堡德國海事中心的總經理。

That's a think tank for the maritime industry clause is good to have you on the show.

那是海運業條款的智囊團，很高興你能參加節目。

We talked a little bit about the costs.

我們談了一下成本的問題。

Generally speaking, that are building up from a shipping companies perspective, what are the daily cost that they're seeing?

一般來說，那從船公司的角度來說，正在建設中，他們每天看到的成本是多少？

Depends on the size of the whistle.

取決於哨子的大小。

So maybe for a whistle, which has 3000 containers, um, there will be costs per day roundabout between 25,000 or $30,000 which will occur every day and no revenues against it.

所以，也許對於一個有3000個貨櫃的哨子來說，嗯，每天會有25000或30000元之間的成本迂迴，每天都會發生，而且沒有收入，對它來說。

Who eats those costs?

誰吃了這些費用？

I guess the shipping company is responsible for it.

我想這是船公司的責任。

So, um, it's it's for the shipping company is a great problem because the customers also shipping companies only pay for the transport and not for the problems during the transport of containers.

所以，嗯，它的它對於船公司來說是一個很大的問題，因為客戶也船公司只付運輸費，不付集裝箱運輸過程中的問題。

What about insurance?

那保險呢？

Can they be insured for these kind of delays?

他們能為這種延誤投保嗎？

I mean, surely their acts of God or I don't know if there's anything for a ship stuck in the Suez Canal.

我的意思是，他們的行為肯定是上帝的行為，否則我不知道是否有什麼東西可以讓一艘船被困在蘇伊士運河裡。

We have in these times a lot of delays, and therefore it is not normal to have insurance for this.

我們在這個時代有很多的耽誤，是以，有這個保險是不正常的。

We have these times a very specific situation because since October last year, since September last year, all the whistles around.

我們這些時候有一個很特殊的情況，因為從去年10月份開始，從去年9月份開始，周圍所有的哨子。

The boards are very good utilized, and there's a lot of, uh, cargo on the way, and therefore there is no capacity really available.

板子的利用率非常高，而且有很多，呃，貨物在路上，是以，沒有真正可用的能力。

Um, that is coming up in respect to the pandemic and as well.

嗯，這是就大流行病和以及來的。

There are some other problems, which occurs as well in this case.

還有一些其他的問題，在這種情況下也會出現。

So it's a big problem in these times when something happens like this and the Suez Canal, so businesses are already paying more.

所以在這個時代發生這樣的事情，蘇伊士運河是一個很大的問題，所以企業已經付出了更多的代價。

Just get these containers now.

現在就去買這些容器。

Prices could go up.

價格可能會上漲。

It sounds like if things are even more pinched At what point for a ship does it become more attractive to take the Cape route when you're looking at what's going on now?

聽起來，如果事情更加緊張，對於一艘船來說，從現在的情況來看，走海角航線會在什麼時候變得更有吸引力？

Mhm, uh, route around the Cape of Good Hope will take around about 8 to 9 days more time when you compare it with root through the Suez Canal.

嗯，好望角附近的路線與蘇伊士運河相比，大約要多花8到9天時間。

Um, we have now to see that more than 200 vessels are waiting northbound and southbound, um, in front of the Suez Canal and only looking for an example.

嗯，我們現在要看到，200多艘船在蘇伊士運河前北上南下，嗯，等待著，只找一個例子。

If it is possible that tomorrow the candle will again open, it will take around about 4 to 5 days, maybe more.

如果說明天蠟燭有可能再次開啟的話，大概需要4到5天左右的時間，也許會更久。

If it is possible to go again in a normal way through the candle.

如果可以再以正常的方式通過蠟燭。

So we have to consider as well.

所以我們也要考慮。

Um there, Clear of the congestion of the canal.

嗯，有，清除運河的擁堵。

Uh, and therefore it might be a good decision to go around the Cape of good Hope.

呃，是以，繞過好望角也許是個不錯的決定。

But then there will occur additional costs because the longer trip will have an impact on the cost of a whistle.

但這樣一來，就會出現額外的成本，因為較長的行程會對哨子的成本產生影響。

And as well it will occur.

也一樣會發生。

Banker costs because the longer trip will then consume more.

莊家成本，因為更長的行程就會消耗更多。

Banker.

銀行家。

Mm.

嗯。

Alright.

好吧，我知道了

So no good solutions visible at the moment.

所以目前看不到好的解決方案。

Close Brandt, managing director of the German Maritime Center.

德國海事中心總經理Close Brandt。

Thank you so much.

非常感謝你。

Thank you.

謝謝你了