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  • If you missed the financial news recently, let  me summarize everything that has happened in  

    如果你錯過了最近的財經新聞,讓我來總結一下最近發生的一切。

  • the last few weeks to find out if the market  will keep crashing or it will finally recover

    過去幾周,看看市場是會繼續暴跌,還是最終會復甦。

  • Back at the end of February, when it  seemed like the market won't crash further,  

    早在2月底,當市場似乎不會進一步崩潰的時候。

  • it kept falling! And right now, everyone  is confused about whether they should  

    它一直在下降!而現在,每個人都在迷茫,他們是否應該。

  • buy or wait till it keeps dipping more. Personally, I would love for it to keep falling,  

    買入還是等它繼續下探更多。我個人很希望它繼續下跌。

  • but it seems like it won't because the fed got  out on the 17th of March and clarified everything.

    但似乎不會,因為美聯儲在3月17日就出來澄清了一切。

  • We will talk about what the  fed said. What does that mean?  

    我們來談談美聯儲的說法。那是什麼意思?

  • And How is it going to impact the stock market?

    又將如何影響股市?

  • One of the metrics investors use  to value companies is discounted  

    投資者用於評估公司價值的指標之一是折現。

  • Cashflow. It can help us to understand  where the market is overall headed to

    現金流。它可以幫助我們瞭解市場整體的走向。

  • Without getting into a lot of details, I will  explain what Discounted Cashflow is? How is  

    我就不多說了,給大家解釋一下什麼是貼現現金流?如何是

  • that related to what the federal reserve  said? And will there be another crash?

    這和美聯儲說的有關係嗎?還會有另一次崩盤嗎?

  • Interest rates aren't just important because they  make borrowing money cheap or expensive today  

    利率不僅重要,因為它們使今天的借錢變得便宜或昂貴。

  • but also because they influence  the value of future cash flow,  

    但也因為它們影響了未來現金流的價值。

  • which is what investors are concerned about the  most. You don't care about how much the company  

    這也是投資者最關心的問題。你並不關心公司有多少錢

  • is earning today or how much it has been  earning in the past. What matters at the  

    今天的收入或過去的收入是多少。目前最重要的是

  • end of the day is how much the company is  going to earn in the future. Based on that,  

    最後是公司未來要賺多少錢。基於此。

  • you will decide whether you should  invest in this or company or not.

    你將決定你是否應該在這個或公司投資或不。

  • Stocks always compete with other  type of investments such as  

    股票總是與其他類型的投資,如競爭。

  • bonds, cash, fixed deposits, whatever. Let's say you have a thousand dollars  

    債券,現金,定期存款,什麼的。假設你有一千塊錢

  • in your pocket. Is it better to  invest in the stock market? Bond  

    在你的口袋裡。投資股市好嗎?債券

  • market? Or just keep it in your wallet? Obviously, investing is way better. Let's  

    市場?還是直接放在錢包裡?很顯然,投資的方式更好。讓我們

  • say interest rates are 5 percent. So if you invest  it in government bonds, your 1K dollars will worth  

    比如說利率是5%。所以,如果你把它投資在政府債券上,你的1千塊錢就會值錢。

  • 1005 dollars next year. So it's important  to look at the time value of money.  

    明年1005元。所以,看錢的時間價值很重要。

  • The sooner you have the cash on your  hands, the more it worth because,  

    越早拿到手的現金越值錢,因為。

  • the sooner you will invest it, a dollar  today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow

    越早投資,今天的一元錢比明天的一元錢更值錢。

  • SO if the company is going to earnbillion-dollar five years from now.  

    SO如果公司要在五年後賺取十億美金。

  • It's not going to be billions becausebillion dollars 5 years from now worth  

    不會是幾十億,因為5年後的十億美金值多少錢?

  • less than a billion dollars worth today because  you could invest it and get 5 percent at least.

    今天不到10億美元的價值,因為你可以投資它,至少可以得到5%。

  • So it's not enough to look at  the company's future Cashflow

    所以光看公司未來的現金流是不夠的。

  • "Oh, this is how much the company  is going to earn in the next  

    "哦,這就是公司接下來的收入。

  • 3, 5, or 10 years." But you  have to find the present value  

    3年,5年,或者10年。"但你必須找到現值

  • of that future cash flow. How much that  billion dollars 5 years from now worth today

    的未來現金流。5年後的今天,這10億美金值多少錢。

  • It sounds a bit complicated, butwill try my best to simply everything

    這聽起來有點複雜,但我會盡力簡單一切。

  • You can use this metric in the  future to value other companies.

    你可以在未來使用這個指標來評估其他公司的價值。

  • Of course, no one knows how much any company would  earn in the future. It's all predictions, but  

    當然,沒有人知道任何公司未來會賺多少錢。這都是預測,但

  • these predictions are based on multiple factors  such as how the company is performing today,  

    這些預測是基於多種因素,如公司今天的表現。

  • where is it investing? What is their strategyHow is the business environment? What are the  

    它在哪裡投資?他們的戰略是什麼? 商業環境如何?哪些是

  • chances that the company will hit its annual  objectives? What is the political climate

    公司實現年度目標的機會有多大?政治氣候如何?

  • There are a lot of analysts who  prepare a certain type of prediction.

    有很多分析師準備了某種類型的預測。

  • Let's say hypothetically there is a company called  Amazon, and it's expected that it will generate  

    假設有一家叫亞馬遜的公司,預計它將會產生

  • 100K dollars every year for the next three years. On the other side, interest rates are 5  

    未來三年每年10萬元。另一邊,利率為5

  • percent, and they are expected to  stay there for the next three years.

    %,預計未來三年將保持在這個水準。

  • At that rate, a 100K dollar next year would  worth $95,238. I got that number by dividing  

    按照這個比例,明年10萬塊錢就值95238元。我得到這個數字是通過除以

  • the future cash flow, which is 100K dollars by  (1+0.05)1 because the formula is CF/(1+r)year

    未來的現金流,也就是10萬元乘以(1+0.05)1,因為公式是CF/(1+r)年。

  • If we apply the same formula in the second and  third year, these are numbers we are going.

    如果我們在第二年和第三年應用同樣的公式,這些數字我們要。

  • Year 1 - $95,238 

    第一年--95,238美元

  • Year 2 - $90,702 Year 3 - $86,383

    第2年-90,702美元 第3年-86,383美元

  • The company's future cash flow isn't 300K  dollars as it seemed at first glance but  

    公司未來的現金流並不是乍一看的30萬,而是

  • $272,323 dollars or the  sum of these three numbers.

    272,323美元或這三個數字的總和。

  • I told you it's not as complicated as it seems.

    我告訴過你,這並不像看起來那麼複雜。

  • Here is when the interesting part startswhat happens if interest rates are lower?  

    有趣的部分就從這裡開始了,如果利率降低會怎樣?

  • What happens if the fed lowers interest rates  to one percent? How will that impact the  

    如果美聯儲將利率降至1%會怎樣?這將如何影響

  • projected future cash flow? Let's do the math

    預計未來現金流?讓我們來算一算

  • First-year - instead of $95,238,  it's going to be $99,009. 

    第一年--不是95238元,而是要99009元。

  • When fed lowers interest rates, suddenly on paperthese companies are going to make more money even  

    當美聯儲降低利率時,突然在紙面上,這些公司要賺更多的錢,甚至是。

  • though nothing absolutely changed for them. Let's do the second year and the third.

    雖然對他們來說沒有什麼絕對的改變。第二年、第三年吧。

  • The Second-year will be $98,029 and the third -  $97,059, which makes it a total sum of $294,097,  

    第二年為98029元,第三年--97059元,合計294097元。

  • which is higher than the previous $272,323. 

    這比之前的272 323美元要高。

  • Remember, the most important thing that  investors care about is how much the company  

    請記住,投資者最關心的是公司有多少錢?

  • is going to earn in the future. That's why  whenever the fed lowers interest rates,  

    是未來要賺的。這就是為什麼每當美聯儲降息的時候。

  • stocks become much more attractive even  if they are not going to borrow money.

    即使他們不打算借錢,股票也會變得更有吸引力。

  • This metric is even more important when  it comes to tech stocks because most tech  

    當涉及到科技股時,這個指標更加重要,因為大部分科技

  • companies are betting on making huge  profits in the future, such as Tesla.  

    公司都在押注未來的鉅額利潤,比如特斯拉。

  • It's a great company, but it's barely profitableBut the idea behind it is that, in the future,  

    這是一家偉大的公司,但它幾乎沒有盈利。 但它背後的想法是,在未來。

  • it's going to be super profitable. It's going  to make a lot of money, but a dollar today worth  

    這將是超級利潤。它會賺很多錢,但今天的一元錢價值。

  • more than tomorrow, so when the fed lowers  interest rates, tech stocks jump through the roof.

    比明天多,所以當美聯儲降息時,科技股就會跳樓。

  • So since the end of February, when  the stock market started falling,  

    所以自2月底股市開始下跌以來。

  • everyone thought that's just a one-day thingHonestly, I jumped in and bought some shares.  

    大家都以為那只是一天的事情。 說實話,我跳進去買了一些股票。

  • I wasn't expecting that it could get worse. I  mean, theoretically, it could, but if it doesn't,  

    我沒想到事情會變得更糟。我的意思是,理論上,它可以, 但如果它沒有,

  • I will miss the opportunity, but the  market kept falling and falling. Of course,  

    我將錯過這個機會,但市場一直在下跌,下跌。當然了

  • I bought more stocks, and on the 17th of Marchthe federal reserve said that - listen, guys,  

    我買了更多的股票,3月17日,美聯儲說--聽著,各位。

  • we understand that the economy hasn't  recovered yet, some business, of course,  

    我們瞭解到,經濟還沒有復甦,當然有些企業,。

  • are doing better than they did last yearbut we feel like, in the next few years,  

    正在比去年做得更好,但我們覺得,在未來幾年。

  • we will keep interest rates low. What do you think LOW means

    我們將保持低利率。你認為LOW意味著什麼?

  • 0 to 0.25 percent at best. You can't get  lower than that unless you go negative,  

    0到0.25%最好。除非你去做負數,否則你不可能比這個更低。

  • which already happened in some countries. Anywaysit's a clear message from the fed that, this year,  

    這在一些國家已經發生了。無論如何,這是美聯儲發出的明確資訊,今年。

  • we will keep the rates low, which means the  market will most probably keep rising. Of course,  

    我們將保持低利率,這意味著市場很可能會繼續上漲。當然是這樣的。

  • that's gonna cause inflation, but the fed said:  “we know that, but that's not a problem now.”

    這會導致通貨膨脹, 但美聯儲說, "我們知道,但這不是一個問題,現在。"

  • Imagine what message does  that sends to investors -

    想象一下,這給投資者傳遞了什麼資訊------。

  • don't hold cash,

    不要持有現金。

  • Because it's going to be worth a lot  less! This means there will be more  

    因為它的價值會降低很多!這意味著將有更多的

  • money thrown into the stock marketwhich means stocks will keep rising.

    資金投入股市,這意味著股票會不斷上漲。

  • So based on current circumstances, it's difficult  to believe that there is going to be some kind of  

    所以根據目前的情況來看,很難相信會有什麼。

  • a major crash in the coming future, at least till  the end of the year. Another correction, maybe?! 

    在未來的未來,至少到今年年底,一個重大的崩潰。又一次修正,也許?

  • I don't know, but corrections happen from  time to time, so I wouldn't be surprised  

    我不知道,但時不時就會有修正,所以我不會感到驚訝。

  • to see a few of them throughout the yearEspecially if you are dollar-cost averaging,  

    來看看他們一年中的一些。 特別是如果你是美元成本平均。

  • these dips are the perfect time to buy. If the market is heading higher and higher,  

    這些跌勢是買入的最佳時機。如果市場越走越高。

  • buying when there is a dip is a perfect option. By the way, I am not a financial adviser,  

    跌的時候買入是一個完美的選擇。對了,我不是理財顧問。

  • and everything I said in this video is  for educational or entertainment purposes  

    我在這個視頻中所說的一切都只是為了教育或娛樂的目的。

  • and nothing more. So do not base your financial  decisions on what random people say on YouTube.

    而不是更多。所以,不要根據YouTube上隨機的人說的話來做財務決定。

  • Low-interest rates also mean that companies will  keep borrowing money. When interest rates are at  

    低利率也意味著企業會不斷借錢。當利率處於

  • almost 0 percent. Any money you borrow is freeEven if you do not need that money, you will  

    幾乎0%。你借的錢都是免費的。 即使你不需要那筆錢,你也會... ...

  • still turn a profit if you borrow it and invest  it elsewhere. It makes sense to borrow as much  

    如果你借了錢再投資到其他地方,仍然會有利潤。借多少錢都是合理的

  • as possible at 0.25 percent for example, so any  return you make above 0.25 percent is considered  

    儘可能以0.25%為例,所以你在0.25%以上的收益都被認為是

  • to be a profit so when the fed is planning to  keep the rates at such a low rate until 2023,  

    要盈利,所以當美聯儲計劃將利率維持在如此低的水準,直到2023年。

  • its extremely difficult to imagine that  there could be a crash or anything like that

    其極難想象,可能會有一個崩潰或類似的東西。

  • Of course, we don't know for sure  whether interest rates will stay that low  

    當然,我們也不知道利率是否會一直保持在這麼低的水準上

  • for another 2 years, anything could  change, but only time will tell.

    再過兩年,任何事情都可能發生變化,但只有時間才能證明。

  • What really worries me is higher bond ratesBonds have an inverse relationship with the  

    真正讓我擔心的是債券利率的提高。 債券與

  • market because bonds are much safer than the stock  market. With stocks, the company could go bankrupt  

    市場,因為債券比股票市場安全得多。對於股票,公司可能會破產

  • or perform really poorly, but with government  bonds, chances that the government will collapse  

    或表現非常差,但政府債券,政府崩潰的機會

  • are really low so whenever bond rates rise, a  lot of investors chose bonds over the stocks,  

    真的很低,所以每當債券利率上升的時候,很多投資者都會選擇債券而不是股票。

  • so the stock market slows down. But we will talk about that in  

    所以股市放緩。但我們將在

  • another video. For now, I really want to  know your opinion about this new format

    另一個視頻。現在,我真的想知道你對這種新形式的看法。

  • Regular videos on the channel aren't going  to stop, but we want to try something new  

    頻道的常規視頻不會停止,但我們想嘗試一些新的東西。

  • where I can update you about the financial newsabout what's happening in the market, and try to  

    在這裡,我可以為你提供最新的金融新聞,關於市場上發生的事情,並試圖

  • help you read between the lines. But to be able  to make videos a bit quicker, we have to make them  

    幫助你讀懂字裡行間的意思。但是,為了能夠更快地製作視頻,我們必須將視頻製作成

  • simpler, so I am curious to know your opinion. Let me know that by giving this video  

    更簡單,所以我很想知道你的意見。讓我知道,通過給這個視頻

  • a thumbs up and commenting down below. thanks for watching and until next time.

    豎起大拇指,在下面評論,謝謝觀看,直到下一次。

If you missed the financial news recently, let  me summarize everything that has happened in  

如果你錯過了最近的財經新聞,讓我來總結一下最近發生的一切。

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