Name: 下一次市場暴跌--會有多嚴重？ (The Next Market Crash - How Bad Will it Get?!)
Uploaded: 2021-03-25T19:50:32.000Z
Duration: 9 min 54 s

過去簡單式

If you missed the financial news recently, let  me summarize everything that has happened in  

如果你錯過了最近的財經新聞，讓我來總結一下最近發生的一切。

to 不定詞

the last few weeks to find out if the market  will keep crashing or it will finally recover. 

過去幾周，看看市場是會繼續暴跌，還是最終會復甦。

Back at the end of February, when it  seemed like the market won't crash further,  

早在2月底，當市場似乎不會進一步崩潰的時候。

it kept falling! And right now, everyone  is confused about whether they should  

它一直在下降!而現在，每個人都在迷茫，他們是否應該。

buy or wait till it keeps dipping more. Personally, I would love for it to keep falling,  

買入還是等它繼續下探更多。我個人很希望它繼續下跌。

but it seems like it won't because the fed got  out on the 17th of March and clarified everything.

但似乎不會，因為美聯儲在3月17日就出來澄清了一切。

We will talk about what the  fed said. What does that mean?  

我們來談談美聯儲的說法。那是什麼意思？  

And How is it going to impact the stock market?

One of the metrics investors use  to value companies is discounted  

投資者用於評估公司價值的指標之一是折現。

Cashflow. It can help us to understand  where the market is overall headed to. 

現金流。它可以幫助我們瞭解市場整體的走向。

Without getting into a lot of details, I will  explain what Discounted Cashflow is? How is  

我就不多說了，給大家解釋一下什麼是貼現現金流？如何是

that related to what the federal reserve  said? And will there be another crash?

這和美聯儲說的有關係嗎？還會有另一次崩盤嗎？

Interest rates aren't just important because they  make borrowing money cheap or expensive today  

利率不僅重要，因為它們使今天的借錢變得便宜或昂貴。

but also because they influence  the value of future cash flow,  

但也因為它們影響了未來現金流的價值。

which is what investors are concerned about the  most. You don't care about how much the company  

這也是投資者最關心的問題。你並不關心公司有多少錢

is earning today or how much it has been  earning in the past. What matters at the  

今天的收入或過去的收入是多少。目前最重要的是

end of the day is how much the company is  going to earn in the future. Based on that,  

最後是公司未來要賺多少錢。基於此。

you will decide whether you should  invest in this or company or not.

你將決定你是否應該在這個或公司投資或不。

Stocks always compete with other  type of investments such as  

股票總是與其他類型的投資，如競爭。

bonds, cash, fixed deposits, whatever. Let's say you have a thousand dollars  

債券，現金，定期存款，什麼的。假設你有一千塊錢

in your pocket. Is it better to  invest in the stock market? Bond  

在你的口袋裡。投資股市好嗎？債券

market? Or just keep it in your wallet? Obviously, investing is way better. Let's  

市場？還是直接放在錢包裡？很顯然，投資的方式更好。讓我們

say interest rates are 5 percent. So if you invest  it in government bonds, your 1K dollars will worth  

比如說利率是5%。所以，如果你把它投資在政府債券上，你的1千塊錢就會值錢。

1005 dollars next year. So it's important  to look at the time value of money.  

明年1005元。所以，看錢的時間價值很重要。  

The sooner you have the cash on your  hands, the more it worth because,  

越早拿到手的現金越值錢，因為。

the sooner you will invest it, a dollar  today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. 

越早投資，今天的一元錢比明天的一元錢更值錢。

SO if the company is going to earn a  billion-dollar five years from now.  

SO如果公司要在五年後賺取十億美金。  

It's not going to be billions because a  billion dollars 5 years from now worth  

不會是幾十億，因為5年後的十億美金值多少錢？

less than a billion dollars worth today because  you could invest it and get 5 percent at least.

今天不到10億美元的價值，因為你可以投資它，至少可以得到5%。

So it's not enough to look at  the company's future Cashflow. 

所以光看公司未來的現金流是不夠的。

"Oh, this is how much the company  is going to earn in the next  

"哦，這就是公司接下來的收入。

3, 5, or 10 years." But you  have to find the present value  

3年，5年，或者10年。"但你必須找到現值

of that future cash flow. How much that  billion dollars 5 years from now worth today. 

的未來現金流。5年後的今天，這10億美金值多少錢。

It sounds a bit complicated, but I  will try my best to simply everything. 

這聽起來有點複雜，但我會盡力簡單一切。

You can use this metric in the  future to value other companies.

你可以在未來使用這個指標來評估其他公司的價值。

Of course, no one knows how much any company would  earn in the future. It's all predictions, but  

當然，沒有人知道任何公司未來會賺多少錢。這都是預測，但

these predictions are based on multiple factors  such as how the company is performing today,  

這些預測是基於多種因素，如公司今天的表現。

where is it investing? What is their strategy?  How is the business environment? What are the  

它在哪裡投資？他們的戰略是什麼？  商業環境如何？哪些是

chances that the company will hit its annual  objectives? What is the political climate? 

公司實現年度目標的機會有多大？政治氣候如何？

There are a lot of analysts who  prepare a certain type of prediction.

有很多分析師準備了某種類型的預測。

Let's say hypothetically there is a company called  Amazon, and it's expected that it will generate  

假設有一家叫亞馬遜的公司，預計它將會產生

100K dollars every year for the next three years. On the other side, interest rates are 5  

未來三年每年10萬元。另一邊，利率為5

percent, and they are expected to  stay there for the next three years.

％，預計未來三年將保持在這個水準。

At that rate, a 100K dollar next year would  worth $95,238. I got that number by dividing  

按照這個比例，明年10萬塊錢就值95238元。我得到這個數字是通過除以

the future cash flow, which is 100K dollars by  (1+0.05)1 because the formula is CF/(1+r)year. 

未來的現金流，也就是10萬元乘以(1+0.05)1，因為公式是CF/(1+r)年。

If we apply the same formula in the second and  third year, these are numbers we are going.

如果我們在第二年和第三年應用同樣的公式，這些數字我們要。

第2年-90,702美元 第3年-86,383美元

The company's future cash flow isn't 300K  dollars as it seemed at first glance but  

公司未來的現金流並不是乍一看的30萬，而是

$272,323 dollars or the  sum of these three numbers.

272,323美元或這三個數字的總和。

I told you it's not as complicated as it seems.

我告訴過你，這並不像看起來那麼複雜。

Here is when the interesting part starts,  what happens if interest rates are lower?  

有趣的部分就從這裡開始了，如果利率降低會怎樣？  

What happens if the fed lowers interest rates  to one percent? How will that impact the  

如果美聯儲將利率降至1%會怎樣？這將如何影響

projected future cash flow? Let's do the math

預計未來現金流？讓我們來算一算

First-year - instead of $95,238,  it's going to be $99,009. 

第一年--不是95238元，而是要99009元。

When fed lowers interest rates, suddenly on paper,  these companies are going to make more money even  

當美聯儲降低利率時，突然在紙面上，這些公司要賺更多的錢，甚至是。

though nothing absolutely changed for them. Let's do the second year and the third.

雖然對他們來說沒有什麼絕對的改變。第二年、第三年吧。

The Second-year will be $98,029 and the third -  $97,059, which makes it a total sum of $294,097,  

第二年為98029元，第三年--97059元，合計294097元。

which is higher than the previous $272,323. 

Remember, the most important thing that  investors care about is how much the company  

請記住，投資者最關心的是公司有多少錢？

is going to earn in the future. That's why  whenever the fed lowers interest rates,  

是未來要賺的。這就是為什麼每當美聯儲降息的時候。

stocks become much more attractive even  if they are not going to borrow money.

即使他們不打算借錢，股票也會變得更有吸引力。

This metric is even more important when  it comes to tech stocks because most tech  

當涉及到科技股時，這個指標更加重要，因為大部分科技

companies are betting on making huge  profits in the future, such as Tesla.  

公司都在押注未來的鉅額利潤，比如特斯拉。  

It's a great company, but it's barely profitable.  But the idea behind it is that, in the future,  

這是一家偉大的公司，但它幾乎沒有盈利。  但它背後的想法是，在未來。

it's going to be super profitable. It's going  to make a lot of money, but a dollar today worth  

這將是超級利潤。它會賺很多錢，但今天的一元錢價值。

more than tomorrow, so when the fed lowers  interest rates, tech stocks jump through the roof.

比明天多，所以當美聯儲降息時，科技股就會跳樓。

So since the end of February, when  the stock market started falling,  

所以自2月底股市開始下跌以來。

everyone thought that's just a one-day thing.  Honestly, I jumped in and bought some shares.  

大家都以為那只是一天的事情。  說實話，我跳進去買了一些股票。  

I wasn't expecting that it could get worse. I  mean, theoretically, it could, but if it doesn't,  

我沒想到事情會變得更糟。我的意思是，理論上，它可以， 但如果它沒有，

I will miss the opportunity, but the  market kept falling and falling. Of course,  

我將錯過這個機會，但市場一直在下跌，下跌。當然了

I bought more stocks, and on the 17th of March,  the federal reserve said that - listen, guys,  

我買了更多的股票，3月17日，美聯儲說--聽著，各位。

we understand that the economy hasn't  recovered yet, some business, of course,  

我們瞭解到，經濟還沒有復甦，當然有些企業，。

are doing better than they did last year,  but we feel like, in the next few years,  

正在比去年做得更好，但我們覺得，在未來幾年。

we will keep interest rates low. What do you think LOW means? 

我們將保持低利率。你認為LOW意味著什麼？

0 to 0.25 percent at best. You can't get  lower than that unless you go negative,  

0到0.25%最好。除非你去做負數，否則你不可能比這個更低。

which already happened in some countries. Anyways,  it's a clear message from the fed that, this year,  

這在一些國家已經發生了。無論如何，這是美聯儲發出的明確資訊，今年。

we will keep the rates low, which means the  market will most probably keep rising. Of course,  

我們將保持低利率，這意味著市場很可能會繼續上漲。當然是這樣的。

that's gonna cause inflation, but the fed said:  “we know that, but that's not a problem now.”

這會導致通貨膨脹， 但美聯儲說，  "我們知道，但這不是一個問題，現在。"

Imagine what message does  that sends to investors -

想象一下，這給投資者傳遞了什麼資訊------。

Because it's going to be worth a lot  less! This means there will be more  

因為它的價值會降低很多!這意味著將有更多的

money thrown into the stock market,  which means stocks will keep rising.

資金投入股市，這意味著股票會不斷上漲。

So based on current circumstances, it's difficult  to believe that there is going to be some kind of  

所以根據目前的情況來看，很難相信會有什麼。

a major crash in the coming future, at least till  the end of the year. Another correction, maybe?! 

在未來的未來，至少到今年年底，一個重大的崩潰。又一次修正，也許？

I don't know, but corrections happen from  time to time, so I wouldn't be surprised  

我不知道，但時不時就會有修正，所以我不會感到驚訝。

to see a few of them throughout the year.  Especially if you are dollar-cost averaging,  

來看看他們一年中的一些。  特別是如果你是美元成本平均。

these dips are the perfect time to buy. If the market is heading higher and higher,  

這些跌勢是買入的最佳時機。如果市場越走越高。

buying when there is a dip is a perfect option. By the way, I am not a financial adviser,  

跌的時候買入是一個完美的選擇。對了，我不是理財顧問。

and everything I said in this video is  for educational or entertainment purposes  

我在這個視頻中所說的一切都只是為了教育或娛樂的目的。

and nothing more. So do not base your financial  decisions on what random people say on YouTube.

而不是更多。所以，不要根據YouTube上隨機的人說的話來做財務決定。

Low-interest rates also mean that companies will  keep borrowing money. When interest rates are at  

低利率也意味著企業會不斷借錢。當利率處於

almost 0 percent. Any money you borrow is free.  Even if you do not need that money, you will  

幾乎0%。你借的錢都是免費的。  即使你不需要那筆錢，你也會... ...

still turn a profit if you borrow it and invest  it elsewhere. It makes sense to borrow as much  

如果你借了錢再投資到其他地方，仍然會有利潤。借多少錢都是合理的

as possible at 0.25 percent for example, so any  return you make above 0.25 percent is considered  

儘可能以0.25%為例，所以你在0.25%以上的收益都被認為是

to be a profit so when the fed is planning to  keep the rates at such a low rate until 2023,  

要盈利，所以當美聯儲計劃將利率維持在如此低的水準，直到2023年。

its extremely difficult to imagine that  there could be a crash or anything like that. 

其極難想象，可能會有一個崩潰或類似的東西。

Of course, we don't know for sure  whether interest rates will stay that low  

當然，我們也不知道利率是否會一直保持在這麼低的水準上

for another 2 years, anything could  change, but only time will tell.

再過兩年，任何事情都可能發生變化，但只有時間才能證明。

What really worries me is higher bond rates.  Bonds have an inverse relationship with the  

真正讓我擔心的是債券利率的提高。  債券與

字幕列表影片播放

下一次市場暴跌--會有多嚴重？ (The Next Market Crash - How Bad Will it Get?!)

strategy

average

impact

expect