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  • In 2020, if a person contracted Covid-19,

    在2020年,如果一個人感染了科維德-19。

  • on average, they would spread it to two or three other people.

    平均來說,他們會把它傳播給其他兩三個人。

  • Those two or three other people would, on average, spread it to another two or three.

    這兩三個人,平均下來,又會分散到另外兩三個人身上。

  • And so on, and so on.

    等等,等等。

  • One out of every 200 people who became infected died.

    每200名感染者中就有一人死亡。

  • In one year, this virus killed over two million people worldwide.

    一年內,這種病毒在全球範圍內造成了200多萬人的死亡。

  • Now let's back up:

    現在讓我們退後。

  • Imagine if the virus were even more contagious

    想象一下,如果病毒的傳染性更強------。

  • if every infected person passed it on to an average of four, or six people;

    如果每個感染者平均傳給四個人,或者六個人。

  • and if its fatality rate was much, much higher:

    而如果其死亡率要高很多很多。

  • closer to three in ten.

    接近十分之三。

  • This devastating scenario is smallpox.

    這種毀滅性的場景就是天花。

  • Smallpox claimed hundreds of millions of lives in the 20th century alone,

    僅在20世紀,天花就奪去了數億人的生命。

  • and plagued humanity for centuries before that.

    並在這之前的幾個世紀裡一直困擾著人類。

  • And then it was gone.

    然後就不見了。

  • We completely wiped it out of existence.

    我們把它徹底消滅了。

  • So, how did we do it?

    那麼,我們是怎麼做的呢?

  • And can we do it again?

    我們還能再做一次嗎?

  • It starts with a vaccine.

    這要從疫苗說起。

  • In the late 1700s, a scientist named Edward Jenner

    17世紀末,一位名叫愛德華-詹納的科學家。

  • developed a brand new way to fight smallpox.

    開發了一種全新的抗擊天花的方法。

  • He called itvaccination.”

    他稱之為 "疫苗接種"。

  • Before this point, the only way to gain immunity from smallpox was to catch it:

    在這之前,獲得天花免疫力的唯一途徑就是感染天花。

  • either through misfortune, or on purpose.

    或因禍得福,或有意為之。

  • Jenner's method was far less dangerous.

    詹納的方法遠沒有那麼危險。

  • Word of the vaccine spread quickly.

    疫苗的消息很快就傳開了。

  • Within five years it was in the Americas.

    五年之內,它就在美洲。

  • Within ten, it was brought to Asia.

    十內,就被帶到了亞洲。

  • Vaccination alone would eventually be enough to drastically reduce cases.

    單單接種疫苗最終就足以大幅減少病例。

  • And that's partially because of how smallpox is spread.

    而這部分是因為天花的傳播方式。

  • Unlike a disease like malaria, which can spread to humans from mosquitoes;

    不像瘧疾這種疾病,可以通過蚊子傳播給人類。

  • or Ebola, which can spread to humans from bats and other animals;

    或埃博拉病毒,它可以從蝙蝠和其他動物傳播給人類。

  • smallpox could only be spread to humans from other humans.

    天花只能由其他人類傳播給人類。

  • There were no animal vectors.

    沒有動物媒介。

  • Which means vaccinating people would slowly eliminate the only way it could spread.

    也就是說給人打疫苗會慢慢消除它唯一的傳播途徑。

  • By the early 1900s, most of Europe, the United States, and Canada

    到了20世紀初,歐洲、美國和加拿大的大部分國家

  • had nearly wiped out smallpox.

    幾乎消滅了天花。

  • But countries with fewer resources, civil unrest, or higher population density

    但資源較少、內亂或人口密度較高的國家。

  • struggled to effectively vaccinate and contain the virus.

    難以有效地接種疫苗和控制病毒。

  • And as long as smallpox existed somewhere,

    而只要有天花存在的地方。

  • it was a threat to people everywhere.

    這對各地的人都是一種威脅。

  • True eradication would require a global effort.

    真正的根除需要全球的努力。

  • "Within the framework of the United Nations, a new organization exists

    "在聯合國的框架內,存在一個新的組織,即:

  • to promote the welfare of all people:

    促進全體人民的福利;

  • the World Health Organization."

    世界衛生組織"。

  • In 1967, the World Health Organization established a unified plan

    1967年,世界衛生組織制定了一個統一的計劃。

  • to eradicate smallpox once and for all.

    一勞永逸地消滅天花。

  • Having a centralized agency changed the game for public health.

    有了一個集中的機構,改變了公共衛生的遊戲規則。

  • Nations pulled together, and vaccination campaigns spread around the globe.

    各國齊心協力,疫苗接種運動遍及全球。

  • Initially, the goal was simple: vaccinate everyone.

    最初的目標很簡單:給所有人接種疫苗。

  • But that proved harder in densely populated places like India,

    但事實證明,在印度這樣的人口稠密的地方,這更難。

  • where it was hard to track outbreaks and the virus could spread quickly.

    在那裡,很難追蹤疫情的爆發,病毒也會迅速傳播。

  • In 1974, over 15,000 people in India died of smallpox in the span of five months.

    1974年,印度有15000多人在5個月內死於天花。

  • So the World Health Organization proposed a more targeted approach:

    所以世界衛生組織提出了一個更有針對性的方法。

  • Instead of trying to vaccinate everyone at once,

    而不是想一下子給所有人接種疫苗。

  • public health officials focused on infected individuals,

    公共衛生官員重點關注感染者。

  • using a form of contact tracing.

    使用一種接觸追蹤的形式。

  • Doctors and volunteers would isolate the person

    醫生和志願者會把這個人隔離起來

  • and vaccinate anyone who had come into contact with them --

    併為所有接觸過他們的人接種疫苗 -- -- 疫苗是一種特殊的工具。

  • and then, whoever had come into contact with those people,

    然後,凡是和這些人接觸過的人。

  • effectively creating a buffer of immunity between the infection and the rest of society.

    有效地在感染者和社會其他人之間建立了免疫力的緩衝區。

  • This was calledring vaccination.”

    這就是所謂的 "環狀疫苗"。

  • It worked. Really well. Not just in India, but around the world.

    它的工作。真的很好。不只是在印度,而是在全世界。

  • And on May 8th, 1980, the World Health Organization declared smallpox eradicated.

    而在1980年5月8日,世界衛生組織宣佈消滅天花。

  • These are the four factors that helped us eradicate smallpox.

    這就是幫助我們消滅天花的四個因素。

  • And while there's no single path to disease eradication,

    雖然消滅疾病的途徑並不單一。

  • if one or more of these can't be met, it will make it much harder, if not impossible.

    如果不能滿足其中的一個或多個條件,就會增加難度,如果不是不可能。

  • So let's talk about Covid-19.

    所以我們來談談科維德-19。

  • Vaccines aren't the problem.

    疫苗不是問題所在。

  • New technologies have brought us effective and safe vaccines in record time.

    新技術為我們帶來了有效和安全的疫苗,時間創下了新紀錄。

  • The issue with Covid-19 is the way it spreads.

    科維德-19的問題在於它的傳播方式。

  • Let's start with animal vectors.

    先說說動物載體吧。

  • Researchers believe the SARS_CoV2 virus originated in bats,

    研究人員認為SARS_CoV2病毒起源於蝙蝠。

  • which means there's a way for it to spread from animals to humans.

    這意味著它有辦法從動物傳播到人類。

  • So, even if we were to completely remove it from the human population,

    所以,即使我們要把它從人類中完全清除。

  • it could reappear, just as it did the first time.

    它可以重新出現,就像第一次一樣。

  • But the way it spreads from human to human is also a problem.

    但它在人與人之間的傳播方式也是一個問題。

  • A person with smallpox could only spread the disease if they were showing symptoms.

    得了天花的人只有在出現症狀的情況下才能傳播疾病。

  • But a person with Covid-19 can be contagious days before that point.

    但科維德-19患者在這之前幾天就可以傳染。

  • Some people never develop symptoms at all.

    有些人根本就沒有出現症狀。

  • It's much harder to effectively trace something you can't see,

    要想有效地追蹤你看不到的東西,難度更大。

  • or isolate a person who doesn't even realize that they're sick.

    或隔離一個甚至不知道自己生病的人。

  • And then there's this.

    然後是這個。

  • From the beginning of the pandemic, many countries have taken a nationalist approach to it.

    從疫情發生之初,許多國家就採取了民族主義的態度。

  • Some countries banned exports of protective gear,

    一些國家禁止出口防護裝備。

  • some countries restricted the export of vital drugs,

    一些國家限制重要藥品的出口。

  • and the United States pulled funding from the World Health Organization.

    和美國從世界衛生組織撤回資金。

  • In a September meeting, the UN secretary General said,

    在9月的一次會議上,聯合國祕書長說:

  • The pandemic is a clear test of international cooperation

    "這種大流行病是對國際合作的一個明顯考驗----

  • a test we have essentially failed.”

    我們基本上沒有通過測試。"

  • Even as vaccines became available, richer countries are buying up the supply,

    即使在疫苗上市後,較富裕的國家也在購買供應。

  • leaving poorer nations behind.

    把較窮的國家甩在後面。

  • And that's a big problem,

    而這是一個大問題。

  • because leaving the virus to spread unchecked in these other places

    因為任由病毒在這些其他地方肆意傳播。

  • gives it more time to spread,

    讓它有更多的時間去傳播。

  • which increases the chance it will mutate.

    這增加了它變異的機會。

  • Variants of the virus are already popping up,

    該病毒的變種已經出現了。

  • and that leaves the whole world at risk.

    這讓整個世界都處於危險之中。

  • All in all, Covid-19 is just not a good candidate for eradication.

    總而言之,科維德-19就是不適合剷除。

  • But eradication isn't the only option.

    但剷除並不是唯一的選擇。

  • Smallpox is the only human disease we've ever eradicated.

    天花是我們唯一消滅過的人類疾病。

  • It's much more common for us to contain and control a disease.

    對於我們來說,控制和控制疾病更為常見。

  • And that's where many researchers think we'll land with Covid-19:

    而這也是許多研究人員認為我們會在Covid-19上落地的地方。

  • we'll vaccinate, and manage.

    我們會接種疫苗,並管理。

  • Lockdowns and quarantines will end,

    封鎖和隔離將結束。

  • and we might end up with a virus that we manage with an annual vaccine,

    我們最終可能會用每年的疫苗來控制病毒。

  • like the flu.

    像感冒一樣。

  • Or, something even more mild:

    或者,更溫和的東西。

  • As more adults and vulnerable populations build immunity,

    隨著越來越多的成年人和弱勢人群建立起免疫力。

  • it's possible Covid-19 will become "endemic":

    Covid-19有可能成為 "地方病"。

  • always around, but rarely developing into anything more than a common cold.

    總是在身邊,但很少發展成比普通感冒更嚴重的事情。

  • It's not the best answer.

    這不是最好的答案。

  • But it's a reality we'll learn to be comfortable with.

    但這是我們要學會適應的現實。

  • We'll be able to go back to the way things were before.

    我們就可以回到以前的狀態了。

  • But we shouldn't.

    但我們不應該。

  • Eradicating smallpox took a colossal effort:

    根除天花需要付出巨大的努力。

  • centuries to create effective vaccines,

    幾個世紀來創造有效的疫苗。

  • and then decades more to build the framework needed for global campaigns.

    然後再過幾十年建立全球運動所需的框架。

  • It's a reminder of what we're capable of as a society.

    這提醒了我們作為一個社會的能力。

  • But it's also a warning:

    但這也是一種警告。

  • Covid-19 is far from the worst disease nature has to offer.

    科維德-19遠不是大自然所能提供的最糟糕的疾病。

  • And this pandemic has shown us that we're not ready for something worse.

    而這次的大流行讓我們看到,我們還沒有準備好迎接更糟糕的事情。

  • Because our failure isn't that we can't eradicate Covid-19;

    因為我們的失敗不是因為我們不能根除Covid-19。

  • it's that we let it rise to pandemic proportions to begin with.

    是我們讓它上升到大流行的比例開始。

In 2020, if a person contracted Covid-19,

在2020年,如果一個人感染了科維德-19。

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