Name: 我們能永遠擺脫科維德-19嗎？ (Can we get rid of Covid-19 forever?)
Uploaded: 2021-03-10T18:05:41.000Z
Duration: 8 min 14 s

In 2020, if a person contracted Covid-19,

在2020年，如果一個人感染了科維德-19。

on average, they would spread it to two or three other people.

平均來說，他們會把它傳播給其他兩三個人。

Those two or three other people would, on average, spread it to another two or three.

這兩三個人，平均下來，又會分散到另外兩三個人身上。

One out of every 200 people who became infected died.

每200名感染者中就有一人死亡。

In one year, this virus killed over two million people worldwide.

一年內，這種病毒在全球範圍內造成了200多萬人的死亡。

Imagine if the virus were even more contagious –

想象一下，如果病毒的傳染性更強------。

if every infected person passed it on to an average of four, or six people;

如果每個感染者平均傳給四個人，或者六個人。

and if its fatality rate was much, much higher:

而如果其死亡率要高很多很多。

Smallpox claimed hundreds of millions of lives in the 20th century alone,

僅在20世紀，天花就奪去了數億人的生命。

and plagued humanity for centuries before that.

並在這之前的幾個世紀裡一直困擾著人類。

In the late 1700s, a scientist named Edward Jenner

17世紀末，一位名叫愛德華-詹納的科學家。

developed a brand new way to fight smallpox.

開發了一種全新的抗擊天花的方法。

Before this point, the only way to gain immunity from smallpox was to catch it:

在這之前，獲得天花免疫力的唯一途徑就是感染天花。

either through misfortune, or on purpose.

Within five years it was in the Americas.

Vaccination alone would eventually be enough to drastically reduce cases.

單單接種疫苗最終就足以大幅減少病例。

And that's partially because of how smallpox is spread.

而這部分是因為天花的傳播方式。

Unlike a disease like malaria, which can spread to humans from mosquitoes;

不像瘧疾這種疾病，可以通過蚊子傳播給人類。

or Ebola, which can spread to humans from bats and other animals;

或埃博拉病毒，它可以從蝙蝠和其他動物傳播給人類。

smallpox could only be spread to humans from other humans.

天花只能由其他人類傳播給人類。

Which means vaccinating people would slowly eliminate the only way it could spread.

也就是說給人打疫苗會慢慢消除它唯一的傳播途徑。

By the early 1900s, most of Europe, the United States, and Canada

到了20世紀初，歐洲、美國和加拿大的大部分國家

But countries with fewer resources, civil unrest, or higher population density

但資源較少、內亂或人口密度較高的國家。

struggled to effectively vaccinate and contain the virus.

難以有效地接種疫苗和控制病毒。

And as long as smallpox existed somewhere,

True eradication would require a global effort.

"Within the framework of the United Nations, a new organization exists

"在聯合國的框架內，存在一個新的組織，即：

In 1967, the World Health Organization established a unified plan

1967年，世界衛生組織制定了一個統一的計劃。

Having a centralized agency changed the game for public health.

有了一個集中的機構，改變了公共衛生的遊戲規則。

Nations pulled together, and vaccination campaigns spread around the globe.

各國齊心協力，疫苗接種運動遍及全球。

Initially, the goal was simple: vaccinate everyone.

最初的目標很簡單：給所有人接種疫苗。

But that proved harder in densely populated places like India,

但事實證明，在印度這樣的人口稠密的地方，這更難。

where it was hard to track outbreaks and the virus could spread quickly.

在那裡，很難追蹤疫情的爆發，病毒也會迅速傳播。

In 1974, over 15,000 people in India died of smallpox in the span of five months.

1974年，印度有15000多人在5個月內死於天花。

So the World Health Organization proposed a more targeted approach:

所以世界衛生組織提出了一個更有針對性的方法。

Instead of trying to vaccinate everyone at once,

而不是想一下子給所有人接種疫苗。

public health officials focused on infected individuals,

公共衛生官員重點關注感染者。

Doctors and volunteers would isolate the person

醫生和志願者會把這個人隔離起來

and vaccinate anyone who had come into contact with them --

併為所有接觸過他們的人接種疫苗 -- -- 疫苗是一種特殊的工具。

and then, whoever had come into contact with those people,

然後，凡是和這些人接觸過的人。

effectively creating a buffer of immunity between the infection and the rest of society.

有效地在感染者和社會其他人之間建立了免疫力的緩衝區。

It worked. Really well. Not just in India, but around the world.

它的工作。真的很好。不只是在印度，而是在全世界。

And on May 8th, 1980, the World Health Organization declared smallpox eradicated.

而在1980年5月8日，世界衛生組織宣佈消滅天花。

These are the four factors that helped us eradicate smallpox.

這就是幫助我們消滅天花的四個因素。

And while there's no single path to disease eradication,

雖然消滅疾病的途徑並不單一。

if one or more of these can't be met, it will make it much harder, if not impossible.

如果不能滿足其中的一個或多個條件，就會增加難度，如果不是不可能。

New technologies have brought us effective and safe vaccines in record time.

新技術為我們帶來了有效和安全的疫苗，時間創下了新紀錄。

The issue with Covid-19 is the way it spreads.

科維德-19的問題在於它的傳播方式。

Researchers believe the SARS_CoV2 virus originated in bats,

研究人員認為SARS_CoV2病毒起源於蝙蝠。

which means there's a way for it to spread from animals to humans.

這意味著它有辦法從動物傳播到人類。

So, even if we were to completely remove it from the human population,

所以，即使我們要把它從人類中完全清除。

it could reappear, just as it did the first time.

它可以重新出現，就像第一次一樣。

But the way it spreads from human to human is also a problem.

但它在人與人之間的傳播方式也是一個問題。

A person with smallpox could only spread the disease if they were showing symptoms.

得了天花的人只有在出現症狀的情況下才能傳播疾病。

But a person with Covid-19 can be contagious days before that point.

但科維德-19患者在這之前幾天就可以傳染。

Some people never develop symptoms at all.

It's much harder to effectively trace something you can't see,

要想有效地追蹤你看不到的東西，難度更大。

or isolate a person who doesn't even realize that they're sick.

或隔離一個甚至不知道自己生病的人。

From the beginning of the pandemic, many countries have taken a nationalist approach to it.

從疫情發生之初，許多國家就採取了民族主義的態度。

Some countries banned exports of protective gear,

some countries restricted the export of vital drugs,

一些國家限制重要藥品的出口。

and the United States pulled funding from the World Health Organization.

和美國從世界衛生組織撤回資金。

In a September meeting, the UN secretary General said,

在9月的一次會議上，聯合國祕書長說：

“The pandemic is a clear test of international cooperation –

"這種大流行病是對國際合作的一個明顯考驗----

Even as vaccines became available, richer countries are buying up the supply,

即使在疫苗上市後，較富裕的國家也在購買供應。

because leaving the virus to spread unchecked in these other places

因為任由病毒在這些其他地方肆意傳播。

which increases the chance it will mutate.

Variants of the virus are already popping up,

這讓整個世界都處於危險之中。

All in all, Covid-19 is just not a good candidate for eradication.

總而言之，科維德-19就是不適合剷除。