One might guess climate change, public health inequality.

人們可能會猜到氣候變化、公共衛生不平等。

But the truth is, we don't yet know.

但事實上，我們還不知道。

What we do know is that supercomputing will have to be part of the solution.

我們知道的是，超級計算將不得不成為解決方案的一部分。

For nearly 100 years, our reliance on high performance computers in the face of our most urgent challenges has grown and grown from cracking Nazi codes to sequencing the human genome.

近100年來，面對最緊迫的挑戰，我們對高性能計算機的依賴越來越大，從破解納粹密碼到人類基因組測序。

Computer processors have risen to meet increasingly critical and complex demands by getting smaller, faster and better year after year, as if by magic.

計算機處理器像被施了魔法一樣，逐年變小、變快、變好，以滿足越來越關鍵和複雜的需求。

But there's a problem at the very moment that our reliance on computers is growing faster than ever.

但目前有一個問題，就是我們對電腦的依賴比以往任何時候都要快。

Progress and compute power is coming to a standstill.

進步和計算能力正在停滯不前。

The magic is just about spent.

魔法就快用完了。

The timing couldn't be worse.

時機再差不過了。

We rarely talk about it.

我們很少談論它。

But for all that we've accomplished with computers, they remain a startling number of things that computers still can't do at a great cost to business and society.

但是，儘管我們在計算機方面取得了很大的成就，但計算機仍然有很多令人震驚的事情無法完成，給企業和社會帶來了巨大的損失。

The dream of near instant computational drug design, for instance, has yet to come to fruition.

例如，近乎即時的計算藥物設計的夢想還沒有實現。

Nearly 50 years after it was first conceived.

在最初設想後近50年。

Never has that been clearer than now as the world sits in a state of isolation and paralysis as we await a vaccine for Covid, 19.

這一點從來沒有像現在這樣清楚，因為世界正處於孤立和癱瘓狀態，我們正在等待19歲的Covid疫苗。

But drug discovery is just one area in which researchers are beset and in some cases blocked entirely by the inadequacy of even today's fastest supercomputers, putting great constraints in areas like climate change and in value creation in areas like finance and logistics.

但藥物發現只是研究人員受困的一個領域，在某些情況下甚至完全受阻於當今最快的超級計算機的不足，給氣候變化等領域和金融、物流等領域的價值創造帶來了極大的制約。

In the past, we could rely on supercomputers simply getting better and faster as parts got smaller and smaller every year, but no longer.

過去，我們可以依靠超級計算機簡單地變得更好、更快，因為零件每年都在變小，但現在不行了。

For now, we're drawing up against a hard physical limit.

目前，我們正在拉開與身體硬性極限的距離。

Transistors have become so minuscule that they're fast approaching the size of an atom.

半導體已經變得如此微不足道，以至於它們快接近原子的大小。

Such a state of affairs invites a natural follow up question, and it's one that I've spent the last several years encouraging business leaders and policymakers to address, if not traditional, supercomputers.

這樣的狀況招致了一個自然的後續問題，這也是我在過去幾年中一直鼓勵商業領袖和政策制定者解決的問題，如果不是傳統的超級計算機。

What technology will emerge to Armas against the challenges of the 21st century?

在21世紀的挑戰中，阿瑪斯會出現什麼技術？

Enter quantum computing.

進入量子計算。

Quantum computers like this one promised to address the atomic limitation by exploiting sub atomic physical properties that weren't even known to man 100 years ago.

像這樣的量子計算機，承諾利用100年前人類都不知道的亞原子物理特性來解決原子的限制。

But how does it work?

但它是如何運作的呢？

Quantum computing enables a departure from two major constraints of classical semiconductor computing.

量子計算能夠擺脫經典半導體計算的兩大限制。

Classical computers operate deterministic lee.

經典計算機運行的是確定性的利。

Everything is either yes or no on or off with no in between.

所有的東西都是要麼是，要麼是，要麼是，要麼是，中間沒有。

They also operate serially.

它們也是串行操作的。

They can only do one thing at a time.

他們一次只能做一件事。

Quantum computers operate probabilistic lee, and most importantly, they operate simultaneously thanks to three properties.

量子計算機操作概率利，最重要的是，它們同時操作得益於三個特性。

Superposition, entanglement and interference, which allow them to explore many possibilities at once.

疊加、糾纏和干擾，讓他們可以同時探索多種可能性。

To illustrate how this works.

為了說明如何工作。

Imagine a computer is trying to solve a maze.

想象一下，一臺電腦正試圖解決一個迷宮。

The classical computer would do so by exhausting every potential pathway in a sequence.

古典計算機會通過窮盡一個序列中的每一條潛在路徑來實現。

If it came across the road block on the first path, it would simply rule that out as a solution, revert to its original position and try the next logical path and so on and so forth until it found the right solution.

如果它在第一條道路上遇到了路障，它就會簡單地排除這個辦法，重新回到原來的位置，然後嘗試下一條邏輯道路，如此循環往復，直到找到正確的解決辦法。

Quantum Computer could test every single pathway at the same time, in effect solving the maze in only a single try.

量子計算機可以同時測試每一條路徑，實際上只需一次嘗試就能解開迷宮。

As it happens, many complex problems are characterized by this maze like quality, especially simulation and optimization problems, some of which can be solved exponentially faster with the quantum computer.

恰好，很多複雜的問題都具有這種迷宮一樣的特質，尤其是模擬和優化問題，有些問題可以用量子計算機以指數級的速度解決。

But is there really value to this so called quantum speed up in order to believe that we need faster supercomputers.

但這種所謂的量子加速是否真的有價值，以相信我們需要更快的超級計算機。

We need to first believe that our problems are indeed computational in nature.

我們首先要相信，我們的問題確實是計算性的。

It turns out that many are at least in part for an example.

事實證明，很多人至少有一部分是為了舉例。

Let's turn to fertilizer production one of the hallmark problems in the science of climate change.

讓我們來談談氣候變化科學中的一個標誌性問題--化肥生產。

The way most fertilizers produced today is by fusing nitrogen and hydrogen to make ammonia, which is the active ingredient.

現在大多數肥料的生產方式是通過氮氣和氫氣的融合來製造氨氣，氨氣是有效成分。

The process works, but only at a severe, a severe cost to businesses who spend 100 to 300 billion every year.

這個過程是有效的，但只是對企業來說，每年花費1000億到3000億的成本，是嚴重的，嚴重的。

And to the environment.

而對環境。

3 to 5% of the world's natural gas is expended on fertilizer synthesis every single year.

世界上每年有3-5%的天然氣用於化肥合成。

So why have scientists failed to develop a more efficient process?

那麼，為什麼科學家們未能開發出更高效的工藝呢？

The reason is that in order to do so, they would need to simulate the maze like molecular interactions that make up the electrostatic field of the key catalyst.

原因是，為了做到這一點，他們需要模擬構成關鍵催化劑靜電場的迷宮一樣的分子相互作用。

Nitrogenous scientists actually know how to do that today, but it would take 800,000 years on the world's fastest supercomputer with a full scale quantum computer less than 24 hours.

氮氮科學家們其實今天已經知道如何做到這一點，但在世界上最快的超級計算機上，需要80萬年的時間，全規模的量子計算機不到24小時。

For another example, let's return to drug discovery, a process Covid, 19, has brought into sharp focus for most of us for the very first time.

再舉個例子，讓我們回到藥物發現，19歲的科維德第一次讓我們大多數人清楚地看到了這個過程。

Designing a vaccine for an infectious disease like Covid 19, from identifying the drivers of the disease to screening millions of candidate activators and inhibitors is a process that typically takes 10 or more years per drug, 90% of which failed to pass clinical trials.

為科維德19這樣的傳染病設計疫苗，從確定疾病的驅動因素到篩選出上百萬種候選激活劑和抑制劑是一個過程，每種藥物通常需要10年或更長時間，其中90%的藥物未能通過臨床試驗。

The cost of pharmaceutical companies is 2 to $3 billion per approved drug, but the social costs of delays and failures are much, much higher.

每一個獲批的藥物，藥企的成本是20-30億，但延誤和失敗的社會成本要高很多很多。

More than eight million people die every year of infectious diseases.

每年有800多萬人死於傳染病。

That's 15 times as many people as died during the first six months of the coronavirus pandemic.

這是冠狀病毒大流行前六個月死亡人數的15倍。

So why is computational drug design failed to live up to expectations?

那麼，為什麼計算藥物設計未能達到預期呢？

Again?

又來了？

It's a matter of limited computational resources, at least in part if identifying a disease pathway in the body is like a lock.

這是一個計算資源有限的問題，至少在一定程度上，如果識別體內的疾病途徑就像一把鎖。

Designing a drug requires searching through a massive chemical space, effectively amaze of molecular structures to find the right compound to find a key.

設計一個藥物需要在一個龐大的化學空間中搜索，有效地對分子結構進行驚奇，以找到合適的化合物，找到一個關鍵。

In other words, that fits the lock.

換句話說，這符合鎖。

The problem is it tracing the entire relevant span of chemical space and converting it into a searchable database for drug design would take five trillion trillion trillion trillion years on the world's fastest supercomputer on a quantum computer a little more than a half hour.

問題是它追蹤整個相關的化學空間跨度，並將其轉化為藥物設計的可搜索數據庫，在世界上最快的超級計算機上，在量子計算機上需要五萬億兆年，而在量子計算機上需要半個小時多一點。

The quantum computing is not just about triumphs in the lab.

量子計算不僅僅是實驗室裡的勝利。

The flow of progress and industries of all kinds is currently blocked by discreet but intractable computational constraints that have a real impact on business and society.

目前，各種進步和產業的流動都被謹慎但難以解決的計算約束所阻擋，這對商業和社會產生了實際影響。

For what may seem an unlikely example, let's turn to banks what banks were able to land more freely to individuals, entrepreneurs and businesses.

看似不太可能的例子，讓我們來看看銀行能夠更自由地將銀行的東西落到個人、企業家和企業身上。

One of the key hold ups today is that banks keep 10 to 15% of assets in cash reserves, in part because their risk simulations are compute constrained.

如今的一個關鍵性阻礙是，銀行將10到15%的資產保留在現金儲備中，部分原因是他們的風險模擬受到計算約束。

They can't account for global or whole market risks that are rare but severe and unpredictable.

它們不能說明全球或整個市場的風險，這些風險是罕見的，但嚴重的和不可預測的。

Black swan events, for example, 10 to 15% is a whole lot of money.

比如黑天鵝事件，10到15%就是一大筆錢。

When you consider that for every 1% reduction in cash reserves, it would lead to an extra trillion dollars of investable capital.

當你考慮到現金儲備每減少1%，就會多出一萬億美元的可投資資本。

What this means is that if banks ultimately became comfortable enough with quantum powered risk simulations to reduce cash reserves to say 5 to 10% of assets.

這意味著，如果銀行最終對量子動力的風險模擬有足夠的舒適度，將現金儲備減少到比如資產的5到10%。

The effect would be like a covid 19 level stimulus for individuals and businesses every single year.

其效果就像每一年對個人和企業的covid19級刺激。

Once the transformative power of quantum computing is clear, the question then becomes, well, how long must we wait?

一旦明確了量子計算的變革性力量，那麼問題就變成了，好吧，我們還要等多久？

Researchers are cautious when asked about the timeline to Quantum Advantage.

當被問及量子優勢的時間表時，研究人員都很謹慎。

Rightly so.

理所當然。

There remain a number of critical hurdles to overcome and not just engineering challenges, but fundamental scientific questions about the nature of quantum mechanics.

目前仍有許多關鍵性的障礙需要克服，而且不僅僅是工程上的挑戰，而是關於量子力學本質的基本科學問題。

As a result, it may be 12 even three decades before quantum computers fully mature.

是以，量子計算機要完全成熟，可能還要12年甚至30年。

Some executives that I've spoken with have come to the conclusion on this basis that they can afford to wait.

我所接觸到的一些高管，都是在這個基礎上得出的結論，他們等得起。

They can afford to postpone investing.

他們有能力延後投資。

I believe this to be a real mistake.

我相信這是一個真正的錯誤。

For while some technologies developed steadily according to the laws of cumulative causation, many emerge as precipitous breakthroughs almost overnight, defying any timeline that could be drawn out in advance.

因為雖然有些技術是按照累積因果規律穩步發展的，但很多技術幾乎是在一夜之間就出現了突飛猛進的突破，違背了任何可以提前劃定的時間表。

Quantum computing is a candidate for just such a breakthrough, having already reached a number of critical milestones decades ahead of schedule.

量子計算正是這種突破的候選者，已經提前幾十年達到了一些關鍵的里程碑。

In the late eighties, for example, many researchers thought that the basic building block of quantum computing, the Cuban would take 100 years to build.

例如，在80年代末，許多研究人員認為量子計算的基本構件--古巴號需要100年才能建成。

10 years later, it arrived.

10年後，它到了。

Now IBM has nearly 500 cubits across 29 machines available for client use and research.

現在IBM在29臺機器上有近500個立方體可供客戶使用和研究。

What this means is that we should worry less about quantum computers arriving too late and more about them arriving too soon before the necessary preparations have been made for the quote.

這意味著，我們不應該擔心量子計算機太晚到達，而更應該擔心它們在為報價做必要的準備之前太早到達。

One Nobel Prize winning physicist Quantum computers are more different from current computers.

一位諾貝爾物理學獎得主量子計算機與目前的計算機有較大的不同。

Then current computers are from the abacus.

那麼目前的計算機是從算盤上。

It will take time to make the necessary workflow integration.

這需要時間進行必要的工作流程整合。

It'll take time to onboard the right talent.

需要時間來上崗合適的人才。

Most importantly, it will take time not to mention vision and imagination, to identify and scope high value problems for quantum computers to tackle for your business.

最重要的是，這需要時間，更不用說遠見和想象力了，要為你的業務確定量子計算機要解決的高價值問題並確定其範圍。

Governments are already investing heavily in quantum technologies.

各國政府已經在大力投資量子技術。

$15 billion among China, Europe and the US and VCs are following suit.

150億美元，其中中國、歐洲和美國的VC也在跟進。

But what's needed now to accelerate innovation is business investment in developing use cases and onboarding talent.

但現在要加速創新，需要的是企業在開發用例和入職人才方面的投資。

And I'm experimenting with real quantum computers that are available today.

而我正在用現在的真實量子計算機進行實驗。

In a world such as ours, the demands of innovation can't be put off for another day.

在我們這樣的世界裡，創新的要求不能再拖一天了。

Leaders must act now for the processor speed ups that have driven innovation for nearly 70 years are set to stop dead in their tracks.

領導者們必須馬上行動起來，因為推動了近70年創新的處理器提速將停止不前。

The race toward a new age of magic and supercomputing is already underway.

向著魔法和超算新時代的競賽已經開始了。

The one we can't afford to lose.

我們不能失去的人。

Quantum computers are in pole position.

量子計算機處於杆位。

There's a car to beat.

有車可打。

Thank you.

謝謝你了

Yeah.

是啊。