Congratulations, Mr President.

恭喜你，主席先生。

It's been six weeks since Joe Biden became president, six weeks for him to begin the work of turning campaign promises into policy promises like this on Saudi Arabia.

喬-拜登當上總統已經六個星期了，六個星期的時間，他要開始把競選承諾轉化為政策承諾的工作，比如在沙特阿拉伯問題上。

President Trump has not punished senior Saudi leaders, would you?

特朗普總統沒有懲罰沙特高級領導人，你會嗎？

Yes.

是的，我知道

And I would make it very clear we were not going to in fact, sell more weapons to them.

我會說得很清楚，我們事實上不會向他們出售更多的武器。

We were going to in fact, make them pay the price and make them in fact, the pariah that they are.

我們要在事實上，讓他們付出代價，讓他們在事實上，成為賤民。

That was on the campaign trail.

那是在競選的時候。

This is the Biden administration in power.

這就是拜登政府的執政。

We are very focused on future conduct in.

我們非常注重未來的行為，在。

That is part of why we have cast this not as a rupture, but a recalibration.

這就是為什麼我們認為這不是一次破裂，而是一次重新調整的部分原因。

I want to look at how this complex bond between the U.

我想看看這種複雜的紐帶是如何在U。

S.

S.

And Saudi Arabia won't easily be broken regardless of who's in the White House and how a murder and a war are presenting this early test.

而沙特無論誰在白宮，也不會輕易被攻破，一場謀殺和戰爭是如何呈現這個早期考驗的。

For the president, this is a story of a superpower and how the Saudis are part of its effort to stay that way.

對於總統來說，這是一個超級大國的故事，以及沙特如何成為其保持這種方式的努力的一部分。

At first glance.

乍一看。

America and Saudi Arabia have little in common ones.

美國和沙特幾乎沒有共同的那些。

A democracy.

一個民主國家。

One is an authoritarian monarchy.

一是專制君主制。

Ones majority Christian.

在大多數基督徒。

One is Sunni Muslim.

一個是遜尼派穆斯林。

One has freedom of speech, the other routinely jails activists, and their relationship is under constant pressure, in part because of a murder in 2018.

一個擁有言論自由，另一個經常監禁活動家，他們的關係不斷受到壓力，部分原因是2018年的一起謀殺案。

Mr Cash Algae was strangled shortly after he entered the Saudi consulate on the second of October.

10月2日，Cash Algae先生在進入沙特領事館後不久就被勒死。

Hood was placed over his head and his body was later dismembered.

胡德被套在頭上，隨後屍體被肢解。

Jamal Khashoggi was a Saudi journalist and a U.

賈馬爾-卡舒吉是一名沙特記者，也是一名美。

S resident.

S居民。

In October 2018, he was in Istanbul.

2018年10月，他在伊斯坦布爾。

In Turkey.

在土耳其：

We see him entering the Saudi consulate.

我們看到他進入沙特領事館。

Not long afterwards, he was killed and dismembered.

不久後，他就被殺了，被肢解了。

And U.

而U。

S intelligence believes this was approved by the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.

斯情報部門認為，這是沙特王儲穆罕默德-本-薩勒曼準許的。

He's effectively the leader of Saudi Arabia, and he denies involvement in the killing.

他實際上是沙特阿拉伯的領導人，他否認參與殺人。

This, though, was the conclusion the UN reached.

但這是聯合國得出的結論。

There is absolutely no doubt, no doubt under international human rights law, that the responsibility of the state of Saudi Arabia is involved.

根據國際人權法，絕對毫無疑問地涉及沙特阿拉伯國的責任。

It is involved in the killing.

它參與了殺戮。

It is involved in the lack of an effective investigation.

它涉及缺乏有效的調查。

It is involved in the lack of an effective prosecution.

它涉及到缺乏有效的起訴。

And if the Saudi state was involved, it would be unlikely that the crown prince wasn't well.

而如果沙特國參與其中，那太子不可能不舒服。

Shortly after the murder, the then president Donald Trump, was asked about this.

案發後不久，時任總統唐納德-特朗普，被問及此事。

What are you considering?

你在考慮什麼？

For possible consequences for body based on those?

對於基於這些可能對身體造成的後果？

Well, it'll have to be very severe.

好吧，這必須是非常嚴重的。

It's bad, bad stuff.

這是壞的，壞的東西。

But the punishment wasn't severe.

但處罰並不嚴厲。

In fact, very little was done.

事實上，所做的工作很少。

Less than three weeks after the murder, the then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, visited Riyadh.

案發後不到三週，時任美國國務卿邁克-蓬佩奧，訪問利雅得。

And, as you can see, it was handshakes and smiles with Mohammed bin Salman that set the Trump approach.

而你可以看到，正是與穆罕默德-本-薩勒曼的握手和微笑，奠定了特朗普的方針。

The veteran reporter Bob Woodward later reported that Donald Trump said of the crown prince, I saved his ass.

資深記者鮑勃-伍德沃德後來報道說，唐納德-特朗普對王儲說，我救了他的屁股。

I was able to get Congress to leave him alone.

我能夠讓國會放過他。

I was able to get them to stop while Trump called that book fake news.

我能夠讓他們停下來，而特朗普卻說那本書是假新聞。

But there's no reason to doubt it.

但我們沒有理由懷疑它。

And in any case it is true.

而無論如何，這都是事實。

The U.

U.

S.

S.

Did leave Mohammed bin Salman alone.

沒有放過穆罕默德-本-薩勒曼。

Joe Biden promised to be different.

喬-拜登承諾要與眾不同。

And this week the senior Democrat, Adam Schiff, has said that Biden administration should explore ways to ensure the repercussions for the brutal murder of Mr Kasogi to go beyond those who carried out to the one who ordered it.

而本週高級民主黨人亞當-希夫表示，拜登政府應該探索如何確保對卡索吉先生的殘忍謀殺的反響，以超越那些誰進行的人，以命令它的人。

The Crown Prince himself.

太子親自出馬。

He has blood on his hands.

他的手上沾滿了鮮血。

But what's actually happened this week is that first we have a report confirming that U S intelligence believed the crown prince approved the murder.

但本週實際發生的情況是，首先我們有一份報告證實，美國情報部門認為王儲準許了謀殺。

And second, we have confirmation that he won't be targeted.

其次，我們已經確認他不會成為目標。

My colleague Nick Bryant had the story as it developed while they've been, that's what they're calling a Kasogi ban which is targeting foreign nationals who they say have intimidated or harassed or assaulted dissidents and journalists.

我的同事尼克-布萊恩特有這個故事，因為它的發展，而他們已經，這就是他們所謂的Kasogi禁令，這是針對外國人誰，他們說有恐嚇或騷擾或攻擊異議人士和記者。

They haven't imposed sanctions on Mohammed bin Salman.

他們還沒有對穆罕默德-本-薩勒曼實施制裁。

The crown prince will go unpunished and that development has been fiercely criticised, Jamal Khashoggi wrote for The Washington Post and its publisher, Fred Ryan, has written.

王儲將逍遙法外，這一發展受到了激烈的責備，賈馬爾-卡舒吉為《華盛頓郵報》撰文，其出版人弗雷德-瑞安也寫道。

It appears as though under the Biden administration, despots who offer momentarily strategic value to the US might be given a one free murder pass.

看來，在拜登政府下，為美國提供一時戰略價值的專制者可能會獲得一次免費的謀殺通行證。

We've also heard from JaMarcus Aggies fiance, who put out a statement saying, If the Crown prince is not punished, it will forever signal that the main culprit can get away with murder, which will endanger us all and be a stain on our humanity and some US journalists and Biden supporters have arrived at this point is the only difference between Trump bragging about saving M.

我們還聽到了JaMarcus Aggies未婚夫的消息，他發表聲明說：如果王儲不受懲罰，它將永遠標誌著主犯可以逃脫謀殺，這將危及我們所有人，併成為我們人性的汙點，一些美國記者和拜登的支持者已經到達了這一點是特朗普吹噓拯救M的唯一區別。

B S's ass and Biden acting as if he has no choice but to save MBS is Ass is the only difference.

B S的屁股和拜登表現得好像除了拯救MBS是屁股別無選擇是唯一的區別。

The words surrounding the decision.

圍繞決定的話語。

We'll try and answer that.

我們會試著回答這個問題。

First of all, here's the official explanation.

首先，官方的解釋是這樣的。

Our objective is to recalibrate the relationship, prevent this from ever happening again and find ways as there are still to work together with Saudi leadership, while still making clear where we feel action is unacceptable.

我們的目標是重新調整關係，防止這種情況再次發生，並找到與沙特領導層合作的方法，同時仍然明確指出我們認為不可接受的行動。

That maybe the objective.

這也許是目標。

But others are suggesting there's an evergreen rule of politics at play here, really easy to preen and promise that you're going to do very tough things when there's nothing you can do the moment, the reins of power in your hand.

但也有人提出，這裡面有一個政治的常青規則在起作用，真的很容易矯情，答應你要做很強硬的事情，而你當下什麼都做不了，權力的韁繩在你手裡。

It's a lot more complicated to do the things you promised when you were just the campaign guy, and it is a lot more complicated.

當初你只是競選人的時候承諾的事情，要做起來就複雜多了。

That's true for every leader assuming power.

每一個上任的上司都是如此。

But there are longer term reasons to why the Biden administration won't just break with the Saudis, and they reach back to 1945 the the Arabian monarch, Kosovo or the President's cruiser to be received amid impressive and colorful ceremony here we're seeing that then US President Franklin Roosevelt meeting the Saudi king, and from this point, American oil companies began working with the Saudi state.

但拜登政府不會只與沙特決裂，還有更長遠的原因，它們可以追溯到1945年的阿拉伯君主，科索沃或總統的巡洋艦在令人印象深刻和豐富多彩的儀式中受到接待，這裡我們看到的是當時的美國總統富蘭克林-羅斯福會見沙特國王，從這時起，美國石油公司開始與沙特國家合作。

That made both sides a lot of money, and there were benefits beyond that.

這讓雙方都賺了不少錢，除此之外還有好處。

Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution puts it this way.

布魯金斯學會的蘇珊娜-馬洛尼這樣說。

Every American president in the last 50 years has considered the free flow of oil through the Persian Gulf as a vital national security interest for the United States.

過去50年裡，每一位美國總統都認為波斯灣的石油自由流通是美國的重要國家安全利益。

And while U.

而當U。

S imports of Saudi oil have been decreasing, the security dimension of this relationship very much remains.

S對沙特石油的進口量一直在減少，這種關係的安全層面仍然非常。

America has a number of military bases in Saudi Arabia, and right across the Gulf from Saudi Arabia is Iran, which the U.

美國在沙特有很多軍事基地，而與沙特隔著海灣的就是伊朗，美國。

S sees as a major security threat.

斯認為是重大安全威脅。

It doesn't trust Iran's nuclear activity, and it knows Iran supports militia in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen.

它不信任伊朗的核活動，它知道伊朗支持黎巴嫩、敘利亞、伊拉克和葉門的民兵。

America believes it needs Saudi Arabia to counter the Iranians.

美國認為它需要沙特來對抗伊朗人。

And if you want an illustration of the tangle that America finds itself in with Saudi Arabia, while the Hachioji murder is definitely won the war in Yemen is another.

而如果你想說明美國與沙特之間的糾葛，而八王子謀殺案肯定是贏了，葉門戰爭是另一個。

Yeah.

是啊。

On one side of this conflict, we have the Yemeni government, backed by a Saudi led coalition.

在這場衝突的一方，我們有葉門政府，由沙特上司的聯盟支持。

On the other are Houthi rebels backed by Iran, and President Biden has acted.

另一邊是伊朗支持的胡塞叛軍，拜登總統已經採取行動。

He suspended US military sales to Saudi Arabia for offensive purposes.

他暫停了美國對沙特的進攻性軍售。

We'll have to see if this de escalates the conflict.

我們得看看這de衝突是否會升級。

There are, though, already consequences the loss of arms sales for US firms.

不過，已經有了美國公司軍售損失的後果。

And there's evidence the Houthi rebels in Yemen are emboldened.

而且有證據表明葉門的胡塞叛軍有恃無恐。

But these are calculations that presidents have to make.

但這些都是總統們必須要做的計算。

And while there may be a moral dimension in the end, America's interests are the dominant consideration.

雖然最後可能有道德層面的因素，但美國的利益才是最主要的考慮。

It's a point made by this Obama era ambassador to Saudi Arabia talking about the issue of the crown prince and Jamal Kasogi doing sanctions right now, I do that on NBS would not have done very much to advance US interests other than to give some of the satisfaction.

這是這位奧巴馬時代的駐沙特大使在談到王儲和賈馬爾-卡索吉現在做制裁的問題時提出的觀點，我在NBS上這麼做除了給一些滿足感之外，對促進美國的利益不會有太大的作用。

Donald Trump was equally blunt when viewing arms sales to the Saudis.

唐納德-特朗普在看待對沙特的軍售時同樣直言不諱。

They're spending $110 billion purchasing military equipment and other things.

他們花費1100億美元購買軍事裝備和其他東西。

Uh, if we don't sell it to them, they'll say, Well, thank you very much.

呃，如果我們不賣給他們，他們會說，嗯，非常感謝你。

We'll buy it from Russia or thank you very much.

我們將從俄羅斯購買，或者非常感謝你。

We'll buy it from China.

我們會從中國買。

That doesn't help us.

這對我們沒有任何幫助。

Not when it comes to jobs, and not when it comes to our company's losing out on that work.

談到工作就不行，談到我們公司失去工作就不行。

Donald Trump saw the world as America First America versus everyone else.

唐納德-特朗普把世界看成是美國第一美國與其他所有人。

Joe Biden has a more global perspective, but he knows all American presidents know that empires don't last forever.

喬-拜登有更多的全球視野，但他知道所有美國總統都知道，帝國不會永遠存在。

And nor two superpowers America can see a surging China, a resurgent Russia.

而也不是兩個超級大國美國能看到一個崛起的中國，一個復興的俄羅斯。

And if you listen to this commentator, that means decisions that are both unpalatable and inevitable.

而如果你聽了這位評論員的話，那就意味著那些既不討好又不可避免的決定。

The reality is you'd rather have a flawed and perhaps even deeply flawed ally than an adversary in this era of new power and big power competition, where Saudi Arabia might depend more on China, more on Russia for its arms deliveries for its economic strength.

現實情況是，在這個新勢力和大國競爭的時代，你寧可要一個漏洞百出甚至可能漏洞百出的盟友，也不要一個對手，沙特的經濟實力可能會更多的依賴中國，更多的依賴俄羅斯的武器運送。

And that is why the US won't walk away.

而這也是美國不肯走的原因。

It didn't after a number of Saudis were involved in the 9 11 attacks in 2000 and one it hasn't after the Hachioji murder, President Obama understood this.

在2000年一些沙特人参與了9.11襲擊事件後，它沒有，一個在八王子謀殺案後它也沒有，奧巴馬總統明白這一點。

He went to Saudi Arabia and met the king despite profound reservations about its human rights record, a dancing President Trump understood this.

他去了沙特，見到了國王，儘管對沙特的人權記錄有深刻的保留，一個跳舞的總統特朗普明白這一點。

He made Saudi Arabia his first foreign trip, and President Biden understands this, too.

他把沙特作為自己的第一次外訪，拜登總統也明白這一點。

In their very different ways.

以他們截然不同的方式。

All three expressed disapproval of Saudi actions.

三人都表示不贊成沙特的行動。

All three placed American interests above that.

三人都把美國的利益放在上面。

This is an exchange, not an alliance.

這是交流，不是結盟。

And it's about the maintenance of American power.

而這關係到美國權力的維護。

And for all that, Joe Biden positions himself as a break from Trump on this marriage of convenience with the Saudis, continuity is the word mhm.

而對於這些，喬-拜登的定位是與特朗普在這場與沙特的便利婚姻上的決裂，延續性就是一個字嗯。