Name: 迴歸寫字樓未必能促進房地產行業的發展 (Return to offices may not boost the real estate sector)
Uploaded: 2021-03-04T18:56:41.000Z
Duration: 5 min 42 s

I'm Angeline on our focus today is real estate and our guest is Chris Beacham, the chief market strategist at I G.

我是Angeline，我們今天的重點是房地產，我們的嘉賓是Chris Beacham，I G的首席市場策略師。

Now the real estate sector has been seriously upended by the pandemic, with offices and many city centres devoid of people.

現在，房地產行業已經被疫情嚴重顛覆，寫字樓和很多城市中心都沒有人了。

This index, the footsie 3 50 real estate index, is still down around 7% over last year.

這個指數，足彩3期50期房地產指數，比去年還是下跌了7%左右。

But the sector is broad, encompassing builders, developers as well as dividend paying real estate investment trusts that focus on everything from shopping centers to healthcare.

但這個行業的範圍很廣，包括建築商、開發商以及專注於從購物中心到醫療保健的分紅房地產投資信託基金。

So what is the outlook for this sector this year?

那麼今年這個行業的前景如何呢？

Let's ask I g s Chris Beach and Chris, Thank you so much for joining us at such an interesting space.

讓我們問I g s Chris Beach和Chris，謝謝你這麼多的加入我們在這樣一個有趣的空間。

I know you said that for the longer term, the outlook for this sector amid the pandemic is harder to pinpoint.

我知道你說過，從長遠來看，這個行業在大疫情中的前景是比較難確定的。

Is this Because there's this uncertainty, whether people will go back to officers.

是不是因為有這種不確定性，大家會不會再去幹事。

Yes, I think there is very much in a unknown unknown at this point in time.

是的，我覺得現在這個時間點上，有非常多的未知的未知。

Really, when it comes to the scale of the return, obvious is we've had pronouncements that the office itself is is dead and gone.

真的，當談到迴歸的規模時，很明顯的是我們已經有公告說，辦公室本身是死的，已經消失了。

We've had the opposite end of the spectrum from the head of Goldman Sachs last week, saying that it just doesn't work to have working from home.

上週高盛的負責人就對我們提出了相反的觀點，他說在家辦公根本行不通。

Some in the middle would say, People going to the office, maybe 2 to 3 days a week, so 2/5 of the time compared to where they were just over a year ago.

中間有的人會說，大家去辦公室，可能一週有2到3天，所以和一年多前的情況相比，2/5的時間。

And I think that's the question of how much demand or need for offices, particularly and then where that space goes or what becomes of it.

我認為這就是對辦公室的需求或需要有多大的問題，尤其是對辦公室的需求和需要，然後這些空間的去向，或者說這些空間會變成什麼。

In the wake of this, if you turned into apartments, that's fine.

在這之後，如果你變成了公寓，那就好辦了。

But the rationale for that is is somewhat odd.

And, of course, or that retail space has been hit, of course, with the absence of workers in the city and the huge shift to online shopping means that there is fundamentally much less demand for the kind of retail space and much less footfall to support the retail space.

當然，或者說零售空間也受到了衝擊，當然，隨著城市中工人的缺失，以及向網絡購物的巨大轉變，意味著從根本上說，對那種零售空間的需求少了很多，支撐零售空間的人流也少了很多。

As we head into the second half of 2021 beyond.

We still have quite a few good paying companies in terms of dividends.

在分紅方面，我們還是有不少不錯的公司。

Given what's going on and how this pandemic might affect future returns.

鑑於現在的情況以及這種流行病可能會影響未來的收益。

Certainly it is, perhaps even with the previous question that there are a lot more certain in terms of lower than they were a year ago.

當然是這樣的，可能即使是前面的問題，在降低方面也比一年前更有把握。

We know, for example, of course, that people will go back to the office, and as a result, some of those dividend yours which hover for some of those companies in the sector around 4.5 to 5% do still look quite sustainable, I think, And that's that's a good thing for investors.

我們知道，例如，當然，人們會回到辦公室，並作為一個結果，一些這些股息你的徘徊在4.5％至5％左右的部門的一些公司仍然看起來相當可持續的，我認為，這是這是一個很好的事情，為投資者。

I don't expect you think they'll increase dividends, particularly, um, at the time when they're just gonna leave them where they are.

我不指望你認為他們會增加紅利，尤其是，嗯，在這個時候，他們只是要去離開他們的地方。

Um, you have seen, of course, a big drop off in the amount of rents being paid.

嗯，當然，你也看到了，支付的租金數額大減。

But it looks like investors are prepared to look through this, Um, in the hope that things will return to something more like normal.

但看起來投資者準備通過這個，嗯，希望事情會恢復到更像正常的東西。

Um, as we go through the rest of this year, how would you advise investors who still want exposure to this space?

嗯，在今年剩下的時間裡，你會如何建議那些還想接觸這個領域的投資者？

Should there be sub sectors they should be looking at?

是否應該有他們應該關注的子行業？

Well, I think we want the ones where there's like to be increased residential demand.

嗯，我想我們要的是那些 有喜歡增加住宅需求。

More than anything else, I think that's the area where that there is like to be, perhaps an improvement.

更多的是，我想這是那個有喜歡的地方，也許是一種進步。

As economies returned, more people will be looking back to move around more rather than obviously being in lockdown.

隨著經濟的迴歸，更多的人會回過頭來多活動活動，而不是明顯的處於封鎖狀態。

The the areas you want to be cautious about remain.

Of course, I think most importantly, retail particularly, of course, in the UK you've seen this.

當然，我覺得最重要的是，零售業尤其是，當然，在英國你已經看到了這一點。

Diversions in a number of the rights ones focused more heavily on retail have suffered more than those are the more diversified portfolio.

在一些權利的分流更集中在零售業，比那些更多樣化的投資組合受到更多的影響。

I think that's something that's being reflected in their relative performance.

我想這一點，在他們的相對錶現中得到了體現。

So if you see those dividend yields begin to creep back again, Uh evaluations, of course, have improved markedly from where they were a year ago.

所以，如果你看到這些股息率又開始回升，呃評價，當然，比起一年前的情況，已經有了明顯的改善。

I think those are the things to bear in mind that rights shouldn't be treated as one single group.

我想這些都是需要注意的，不應該把權利作為一個單一的群體來對待。

You have to look past that and make a case for saying, Actually, there are pockets of strength and there's some cities will do better than others and maybe even if you're looking further out from the big cities from New York and London, for example, to to regional cities that We'll see a bit of a growth as people issue communities those big names and look to work more regionally in the future, right?

你必須看過去，並提出一個理由說，其實，有實力的口袋，有一些城市會比其他城市做得更好，也許甚至如果你看進一步從紐約和倫敦，例如，從大城市到區域城市，我們會看到一個增長，因為人們發行社區那些大牌，並期待在未來更多的區域工作，對吧？

That's Chris Beacham, chief market strategist at I G M.

這是Chris Beacham，I G M的首席市場策略師。

Before I go, here are some of the top stories in this sector.

在我走之前，這裡有一些這個行業的熱門新聞。

Britain's third largest homebuilder, Taylor Wimpey, reported a strong start to the year and forecasts of recovery in sales and margins in 2021.

英國第三大房屋建築商Taylor Wimpey報告稱，今年開局強勁，並預測2021年銷售和利潤率將復甦。

The FTSE 100 companies said it expected to build fewer affordable homes this year, boosting profit margins back to around 19% after falling to 10.8% last year.

富時100公司表示，預計今年建造的經濟適用房數量將減少，這將推動利潤率在去年下降到10.8%後回到19%左右。

It has been reported in the media that Britain will extend by three months a tax break on home purchases and unveil a mortgage guarantee scheme in Wednesday's budget moves that could further bolster the sector.

據媒體報道，英國在週三的預算案中，將延長三個月的購房稅收減免，並公佈抵押貸款擔保計劃，這可能會進一步支持該行業。

British House price growth unexpectedly accelerated last month, according to mortgage lender Nationwide, house prices rose 6.9% in annual terms in February, above all forecasts.

英國上月房價增長意外加速，據抵押貸款機構Nationwide稱，2月房價年率增長6.9%，高於所有預測。

In a Reuters poll, nationwide said the outlook for the housing market was uncertain given Wednesday's budget and the likely weakening of the labor market as government wage support is withdrawn.

在路透社的一項調查中，全國範圍內的人都表示，鑑於週三的預算案，房市前景不明朗，而且隨著政府工資支持的撤銷，勞動力市場可能會疲軟。

And finally, a real estate brokerage backed by Japan's Softbank has filed for an I P O.

最後，一家由日本軟銀支持的房地產經紀公司已經申請了I P O。

In its filing, Compass revealed a 56% surge in revenue to $3.7 billion for the year ending in December.

Compass在文件中透露，截至12月的年度收入激增56%，達到37億美元。

And that's a round up of the real estate sector.

這就是對房地產行業的一個總結。

 I'm Angelina Song, and this is what is mhm. 

我是安吉麗娜-宋，這是什麼嗯。