Let me say that we do expect that as the couple of things first, as the very low readings of last March and April drop out of the 12 month calculation.

我想說的是，我們確實預計到了這一點，因為首先，去年3月和4月的極低讀數不在12個月的計算範圍內。

As we move forward this year, we expect readings on inflation to move up.

隨著今年的發展，我們預計通脹率將上升。

That's called base effects.

這就是所謂的基礎效應。

That will be a temporary effect, and it won't really signal anything.

這將是一個暫時的效果，它不會真正的信號什麼。

More importantly, though, with all the factors we've been discussing, you could see spending pick up pretty substantially in the second half of the year.

不過更重要的是，由於我們一直在討論的所有因素，你可以看到下半年的支出會有相當大的回升。

And that would be a good thing, of course, but it could also put upward pressure on prices.

而這當然是一件好事，但也會給價格帶來上漲壓力。

And I would just say, uh, that essentially, uh, it's not.

我只想說，呃，本質上，呃，它不是。

It doesn't seem likely that that would result in very large increases or that they would be persistent.

這似乎不可能導致非常大的增長，也不可能持續增長。

We've all been living in a world for a quarter of a century war where all of the pressures were disinflationary, you know, pushing downward on inflation.

我們都生活在一個四分之一世紀戰爭的世界裡，所有的壓力都是不通脹的，你知道的，向下推動通脹。

We've averaged less than 2% inflation for more than the last 25 years.

在過去25年多的時間裡，我們的平均通脹率不到2%。

Inflation dynamics do change over time, but they don't change on a dime.

通貨膨脹的動態確實會隨著時間的推移而變化，但不會一成不變。

And so we don't really think how see how a burst of of, ah, fiscal support or spending that's not that doesn't last for many years would actually change those inflation dynamics.

所以我們並不真的認為 如何看到一陣的，啊，財政支持或支出 這不是，不持續多年 實際上會改變這些通脹動態。

I will also say there's, uh, forecasters need to be humble and have a great deal to be humble about frankly.

我還想說的是，呃，預報員需要謙虛，坦率地說，有很多需要謙虛的地方。

But so if if we turn, if it does turn out that unwanted inflation pressures arising their persistent and we have the tools to deal with that and we will you ask about the US economy in the world economy, I do think.

但是，如果我們轉向，如果它確實轉出，不必要的通脹壓力產生他們的持續和我們有工具來處理，我們將你問關於美國經濟在世界經濟中，我認為。

And, uh, many forecasters agree that once we get this pandemic under control, um, you know, we could be getting through this work much more quickly than we had feared, and and that would be terrific.

而且，呃，許多預測者同意，一旦我們得到這個流行病的控制，嗯，你知道，我們可以通過這個工作更快地得到比我們所擔心的，和，這將是了不起的。

But it's not done yet.

但還沒有完成。

The job is not done.

工作沒有完成。

That's the thing I keep coming back to is we've got to finish the job with the pandemic, getting them to control so that the U.

這是我一直在回想的事情是，我們必須完成大流行病的工作，讓他們控制住，這樣美國就能。