Name: 2015年的伊朗核協議能被拯救嗎？- BBC新聞之夜 (Can the 2015 Iran nuclear deal be saved? - BBC Newsnight)
Uploaded: 2021-02-19T22:00:39.000Z
Duration: 13 min 44 s

the Europeans launched the original nuclear deal.

So it was fitting today that UK, French and German foreign ministers met the new U.

所以，今天英國、法國和德國的外長們見到了新的美國，這是很合適的。

Secretary of state virtually in an attempt to revive it.

國務卿實際上是在試圖恢復它。

We're obviously concerned about the risk of further non compliance firearm with J C P o A.

我們顯然擔心進一步不符合J C P o A的槍支風險。

All the more reason to reinvigorate the transatlantic diplomacy, which is why I've been here with my French and German colleagues but also speaking to Tony Blinken in the US and making sure we chart a way forward on look to find a way to reengage diplomatically in order Thio restrain Iran but also bring it back into compliance with its nuclear obligations.

更有理由重振跨大西洋外交，這就是為什麼我和我的法國和德國同事在這裡，同時也和美國的託尼-布林肯交談，確保我們制定出一條前進的道路，尋找一種重新參與外交的方式，以限制伊朗，並使其重新遵守其核義務。

There's a big element of deja vu to this familiar issues and faces, and the deal signed in 2015 meant also overcoming barriers of distrust and sidelining hardliners on both sides.

這種熟悉的問題和麵孔有很大的似曾相識的成分，2015年簽署的協議也意味著要克服不信任的障礙，排擠雙方的強硬派。

What's more, key people who made possible the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or J.

更重要的是，促成《聯合綜合行動計劃》或J的關鍵人物。

Now running President Biden's foreign policy?

現在掌管拜登總統的外交政策？

I think President Biden definitely wants to revive the nuclear deal, and it's interesting that two of his most senior officials, Jake Sullivan, who's the national security adviser Bill Birnes, the new director of the CIA, are the two officials who, under the Obama administration, were most directly involved in the original negotiations leading up to the J.

我認為拜登總統肯定想重啟核協議，有趣的是，他最資深的兩位官員，傑克-沙利文，他是國家安全顧問比爾-伯恩斯，新任中情局局長，這兩位官員在奧巴馬政府時期，最直接參與了導致J的最初談判。

So they know a lot about this, uh, ill on.

所以他們對這個很瞭解，呃，病了。

但自2015年以來，世界已經發生了變化。

President Trump walked away from the nuclear deal on ramped up sanctions against Iran.

特朗普總統在加大對伊朗的制裁力度的情況下，從核協議中走了出來。

For its part, the Islamic Republic has broken out of the agreement and even now is threatening to go further with its nuclear program in Washington.

伊斯蘭共和國方面已經脫離了協議，甚至現在還威脅要在華盛頓進一步推行其核計劃。

There remains strong political opposition in certain circles to the original deal formed in 2015.

在某些圈子裡，對2015年形成的原始協議仍有強烈的政治反對意見。

And that remains and needs to be contended with in Tehran, obviously an upcoming presidential election of their own in June, which constrains the current Iranian president from a clean return but also makes the question of whether, when and how to return and even more heated political issue in Tehran's politics as well.

而這仍然是德黑蘭需要爭奪的，顯然6月即將舉行的自己的總統大選，制約了伊朗現任總統乾淨利落的迴歸，但也使得是否迴歸、何時迴歸、如何迴歸的問題，也成為德黑蘭政壇更加激烈的政治問題。

In the Gulf itself, multiple missile attacks by Iranian proxies on Saudi targets in recent years underline another element of this Thea knees felt by U.

在海灣本身，最近幾年中，伊朗代理人對沙特目標的多次飛彈襲擊，凸顯了U的這種Thea膝下感受到的另一個要素。

S allies, the Gulf states and Israel about any new diplomatic opening to Iran.

S盟國、海灣國家和以色列關於任何新的外交開放給伊朗。

President Biden will have to set aside those worries, at least temporarily, in order to get the J.

拜登總統將不得不拋開這些擔憂，至少是暫時拋開，以獲得J。

I think perhaps a two stage process is more realistic.

我想也許兩個階段的過程更現實。

So one has a sort of minimal resumption off the J.

所以，人們有一種最小的恢復關J。

C P away, reversing the Iranian breaches of the deal, which is quite possible.

C P走，扭轉伊朗違反協議的局面，這是很有可能的。

A reversion off the taking back the sanctions that Donald Trump pose, perhaps in a phased way on then, perhaps separately, with a different cast of players to discuss things like Iran's regional role.

迴歸唐納德-特朗普擺出的制裁，也許是分階段的方式，然後，也許是單獨的，用不同的角色來討論伊朗的地區角色等事情。

If the diplomatic appeal of returning to the nuclear deal suits the West, does Iran see its value to it?

如果說重返核協議的外交訴求適合西方，那麼伊朗是否看到了它的價值？

Exerts more regional power than it used to on its supreme leader doesn't sound too convinced of the value of fresh deals with the U.

比過去對其最高領導人施加更多的區域權力聽起來並不太相信與美國的新交易的價值。

Earlier this week, a rocket attack on a coalition base in northern Iraq killed an American officer.

本週早些時候，伊拉克北部的一個聯軍基地遭到火箭彈襲擊，造成一名美國軍官死亡。

Thes types of incident present a constant danger of flare ups and escalation, and ultimately it may be the desire to contain these that provides the best rationale for fresh diplomacy.

這些類型的事件帶來了不斷爆發和升級的危險，而最終可能是遏制這些事件的願望為新外交提供了最好的理由。

What I think also was learned from the Trump administration is that not having the nuclear deal certainly didn't de escalate tensions in the region and in fact, in many cases escalated it quite severely, such that Iran's choices and decisions in terms of its foreign policy in the region on Lee presented Mawr and Mawr aggressive a threat to its immediate neighbors.

我認為從特朗普政府那裡學到的也是，沒有核協議當然沒有de升級該地區的緊張局勢，事實上，在很多情況下，升級得相當嚴重，這樣伊朗在該地區外交政策上李的選擇和決定，對其近鄰提出了毛爾和毛爾咄咄逼人的威脅。

So the restart of this process may feel like a familiar story, complete with some of the same leading characters.

是以，這個過程的重新開始可能會讓人覺得是一個熟悉的故事，完成一些相同的主角。

But the geopolitics have changed, and it will not be long before we see whether that also reshapes the diplomacy.

但是，地緣政治已經發生了變化，我們很快就會看到這是否也會重塑外交。

By Barbara Slavin, director of the Future Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council think tank on Olive Aya's Iran Project director at the International Crisis Group.

作者：芭芭拉-斯拉文，大西洋理事會智庫 "未來伊朗倡議 "主任，國際危機組織奧利弗-阿雅伊朗項目主任。

Official who helped cement the 2015 nuclear deal at Barbara.

幫助鞏固2015年巴巴拉核協議的官員。

Has said this evening, this is an opportunity for diplomacy after years because of the new administration.

曾在今天晚上表示，這是多年後的外交機會，因為新政府。

I'm very encouraged, frankly, by the news that's coming out that the United States would be willing to attend a meeting of the joint commission, which implements the nuclear deal.

坦率地說，美國願意參加執行核協議的聯合委員會會議的消息傳來，我深受鼓舞。

This would give the United States and opportunity not only to consult with European allies, the Russians and the Chinese, but to sit down and talk directly to the Iranians.

這將使美國和不僅有機會與歐洲盟友、俄羅斯人和中國人進行協商，而且有機會坐下來直接與伊朗人對話。

We've seen a lot of shadow boxing, I think, over the last couple of weeks, while the United States does its consultations, gets it's ideas in order.

我想，在過去的幾周裡，我們已經看到了很多影子盒子，而美國正在進行協商，讓它的想法有序進行。

And I think now we're ready to begin the diplomacy again.

我想現在我們又可以開始外交工作了。

所以今天是一個非常好的日子，我想。

Because, of course, you gotta have it on both sides.

And Iran's foreign ministers tweeted this evening that the West must demand an end to Trump's legacy of economic terrorism against Iran.

而伊朗外長今天晚上在推特上表示，西方必須要求結束特朗普對伊朗的經濟恐怖主義遺產。

Just to paraphrase that, do you think that there is that appetite?

只是轉述一下，你覺得有這個胃口嗎？

Look, I think the Iranians would see the signals from the U.

你看，我想伊朗人會看到來自美國的信號。

As positive but insufficient, insufficient in the sense that what they care about the most sanctions relief on at this stage, it appears that the Biden administration is not really considering providing Iran with any kind of economic reprieve on you know, the primary motivator on the Iranian side is not that they have an election coming up or is not that they have, you know, are in middle of fighting with the cove.

作為積極的，但不足的，不足的意義上，他們最關心的制裁救濟，在這個階段，似乎拜登政府並沒有真正考慮為伊朗提供任何形式的經濟緩和，你知道，伊朗方面的主要動機不是他們有一個選舉即將到來，也不是他們有，你知道，是在中間的戰鬥與海灣。

It pandemic as one of the worst hit countries in the region.

它是該地區受災最嚴重的國家之一。

But it's a matter of principle, you know, they had to deal with the U.

但這是個原則問題，你知道，他們不得不和美國打交道。

S and P five plus one world powers that the US reneged on on def.

S和P五加一世界大國，美國違背了防。

Now they agree to any kind of return to the diplomatic table without any kind of mere Copa or regret from the U.

現在，他們同意任何形式的重返外交桌，而不需要任何形式的單純科帕或美國的遺憾。

If they agree to any additional concessions based on the sanctions that Trump Administration imposed it, they are afraid it will teach a very bad lesson to the U.

如果他們同意在特朗普政府對其實施制裁的基礎上做出任何額外的讓步，恐怕會給美國一個很壞的教訓。

That basically Iran responds to pressure and sanctions on.

這基本上是伊朗應對壓力和制裁，對。

Then this would be a slippery slope of unending US demands.

那麼這將是美國無休止的要求的滑坡。

Do you think, having just outlined that position so basically there is a need without any doubt for the us to freeze this process of escalation that we're in because the Iranians, based on the legislation that the Iranian Parliament passed after their top nuclear scientist was assassinated last year will reduce the access of U.

你是否認為，剛才概述了這一立場... ...所以基本上，毫無疑問，我們有必要凍結我們所處的升級過程，因為伊朗人，根據伊朗議會在他們的頂級核科學家去年被暗殺後通過的立法，將減少美國的訪問。

N inspectors to Iran's nuclear facilities as of next Tuesday.

從下週二開始，N檢查員將對伊朗的核設施進行檢查。

On this process of escalation will continue because Iran's nuclear program is now growing by the day.

在這個升級的過程中還會繼續下去，因為伊朗的核計劃現在正與日俱增。

So we need to freeze this process and again, the Onley card that the US will play that would get Iran's attention is some economic reprieve on Then both sides would have to get back to the negotiating table, which could very well be the joint commission of the nuclear deal where all the stakeholders sit at the table and discuss a timetable for mutual return into compliance, which I'm hoping would happen before the next Iranian president comes to office in August.

所以我們需要凍結這一進程，同樣，美國會打出的安利牌會引起伊朗的注意，就是一些經濟上的緩兵之計，然後雙方就必須回到談判桌前，這很可能是核協議的聯合委員會，所有的利益相關者都坐在桌前，討論一個相互恢復履約的時間表，我希望這能在下一任伊朗總統8月上任前發生。

That is also a key day as you bring up Barbara saving to bring you back into this.

這也是一個關鍵的日子，因為你提起了芭芭拉的節約，讓你回到這個。

The Biden administration seems less close to Israel.

拜登政府與以色列的關係似乎不太密切。

Do you think that gives Biden more freedom to maneuver?

你認為這給了拜登更多的操作自由嗎？

I think that the bite administration is not only shown a certain independence from the Israelis, but is also noticeably less warm towards towards Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which of the other countries that have been ambivalent, to say the least about the return to the nuclear agreement.

我認為，咬牙政府不僅表現出一定的獨立於以色列人，而且對沙特和阿聯酋也明顯不那麼熱心，其他國家中，哪一個國家對恢復核協議的態度一直很曖昧，至少可以說是這樣。

So I think, you know, Joe Biden is showing a lot of independence.

所以我認為，你知道，喬-拜登表現得很獨立。

He's also showing that he can't be pushed around by the Iranians with artificial deadlines.

他也在表明，他不能被伊朗人用人為的最後期限推來推去。

I mean, with all due respect to Ali, Yes, Parliament passed legislation, but Parliament is not in charge.

我的意思是，恕我直言，阿里，是的，議會通過了立法，但議會不負責。

The supreme leader of the country is in charge, and if he sees signs that the United States is indeed willing toe lift the sanctions, Hey can pause this move out of the joint comprehensive plan of action.

國家最高領導人在負責，如果他看到美國確實願意e解除制裁的跡象，嘿可以暫停此舉出聯合全面行動計劃。

One other bit of news tonight the United States is apparently formally withdrawn the Trump Administration's efforts to quote unquote snapback U N sanctions on Iran.

今晚還有一個消息，美國顯然是正式撤回了特朗普政府對伊朗的制裁報價未報價扣扣網U N的努力。

This was a failed attempt last year, but now the US has formally rescinded this.

這在去年是失敗的，但現在美國已經正式撤銷了這一。

There are a number of signals, I think, that are being sent to Iran, and hopefully this meeting of the joint Commission can happen sooner rather than later.

我想，有一些信號正在向伊朗發出，希望這次聯合委員會的會議能夠儘快舉行。

And then we can get back to the business of sequencing a mutual return to compliance with the deal.

然後我們就可以回到交易中去排序相互迴歸合規的業務。

Give us an insight into Robert Malley, Biden's new Iran envoy.

讓我們瞭解一下拜登的新伊朗特使羅伯特-馬利。

你認識他，你和他一起工作過。

Look, robs approach would be the Biden administration's approach, not necessarily the the approach that we advocated at Crisis Group, which was a swift and clean return to the J c p o A.

聽著，羅伯斯的做法是拜登政府的做法，而不一定是我們在危機組織所倡導的做法，那就是迅速而乾淨地回到J c p o A。

I think the problem that the Biden administration is now facing is very strong political resistance in Congress towards lifting the sanctions, Uh, just to return to the original agreement.

我認為拜登政府現在面臨的問題是，國會對解除制裁的政治阻力非常大，呃，就是回到原來的協議。

But at the same time, as I said, the Iranians would not agree to anything other than return to the original agreement on I think you know, I've seen this movie before.

但同時，正如我所說，伊朗人不會同意任何其他事情，除了回到原來的協議上，我想你知道，我以前看過這部電影。

These seemingly unbridgeable gaps between the two sides could be bridged because at the end of the day, both want the same thing.

雙方這些看似不可逾越的鴻溝是可以彌補的，因為到了最後，雙方想要的是同一件事。