Name: 溫水煮青蛙的真相揭秘：介紹溫室效應 (The “myth” of the boiling frog)
Uploaded: 2022-09-02T21:01:20.000Z
Duration: 4 min 41 s

("We are prone to accept death by a thousand little cuts." - Mark L. Winston, "Bee Time: Lessons from the Hive")

(「我們傾向接受數千次小割傷造成的死亡。」 -- Mark. L. Winston《Bee Time: Lessons from the Hive》)

Two frogs are minding their own business in the swamp when—wham! they're kidnapped.

兩隻青蛙正在沼澤裡忙著自己的事情，卻在突然間被綁架了。

They come to in a kitchen, captives of a menacing chef.

牠們在一間廚房醒來，成了兇惡廚師的俘虜。

He boils up a pot of water and lobs one of the frogs in.

廚師煮沸一鍋水，然後把一隻青蛙扔進去。

The second its toes hit the scalding water, it jumps right out the window.

那隻青蛙在腳趾碰到滾燙熱水的那一刻，就跳出了窗外。

The chef refills the pot, but this time, he doesn't turn on the heat.

廚師重新將鍋子加滿水，但這次，他沒開火。

He plops the second frog in, and this frog's okay with that.

他把第二隻青蛙放進去，而這隻青蛙對這件事完全沒異議。

The chef turns the heat on very low, and the temperature of the water slowly rises.

廚師開了極小的火，水溫緩慢地上升。

事實上，牠是沈浸在溫潤的水中。

Only when the surface begins to bubble does the frog realize...

只有當水表面開始冒泡時，青蛙才意識到⋯⋯

What's funny about this parable is that it's not scientifically true...

這個寓言的有趣之處在於它在科學上是不正確的⋯⋯

In reality, a frog will detect slowly heating water and leap to safety.

事實上，青蛙會感受到慢慢加熱的水，跳躍到安全的地方。

Humans, on the other hand, are a different story.

人類在另一方面是個完全不一樣的狀態。

We're perfectly happy to sit in the pot and slowly turn up the heat,

我們完全樂意在鍋底坐著並緩緩提高溫度，

all the while insisting it isn't our hand on the dial,

同時卻堅稱再旋鈕上的不是我們的手、

arguing about whether we can trust thermometers,

爭論我們是否可以相信溫度計，

and questioning—even if they're right, does it matter?

並質疑一件事：即使他們是對的，有關係嗎？

Since 1850, global average temperatures have risen by 1 degree Celsius.

自 1850 年以來，全球平均氣溫上升了攝氏 1 度。

That may not sound like a lot, but it is.

那聽起來似乎不多，但其實那很多。

Many places have already gotten much warmer than that.

很多地方的氣溫都已經比它高出許多。

Some places in the Arctic have already warmed 4 degrees.

北極的一些地方已經暖化 4 度了。

If global average temperatures increase 1 more degree, the coldest nights in the Arctic might get 10 degrees warmer.

如果全球平均氣溫再升高 1 度，北極最冷的夜晚可能會暖化 10 度。

The warmest days in Mumbai might get 5 degrees hotter.

孟買最暖和的日子可能會變熱 5 度。

那麼，我們是怎麼淪落至此的？

Almost everything that makes modern life possible relies on fossil fuels⏤coal, oil, and gas⏤full of carbon from ancient organic matter.

幾乎所有讓現代生活成為可能的東西都仰賴來自煤炭、石油和天然氣等化石燃料，其中充滿了古代有機物的碳。

When we burn fossil fuels, we release carbon dioxide that builds up in our atmosphere,

當我們燃燒化石燃料時，釋放的二氧化碳會在大氣中堆積，

where it remains for hundreds or even thousands of years, letting heat in, but not out.

它會在其中維持數百甚至數千年之久，不斷讓熱氣進入，但未排出。

The heat comes from sunlight, which passes through the atmosphere to Earth, where it gets absorbed and warms everything up.

此熱能來自太陽光，通過大氣層傳到地球，並在那裡被吸收並暖化萬物。

Warm objects emit infrared radiation, which should pass back out into space, because most atmospheric gases don't absorb it.

溫暖的物體會釋放應該傳送回太空的紅外輻射，因為多數大氣氣體都不會吸收它。

But greenhouse gases⏤carbon dioxide and methane⏤do absorb infrared wavelengths.

但是，二氧化碳和甲烷等溫室氣體卻吸收了吸收了紅外波。

So, when we add more of those gases to the atmosphere, less heat makes it back out to space, and our planet warms up.

所以當我們在大氣中加入更多這些氣體時，會有更少熱能回到太空中，讓我們的星球變暖。

If we keep emitting greenhouse gases at our current pace,

如果我們繼續以目前的速度排放溫室氣體，

scientists predict temperatures will rise 4 degrees from their pre-industrial levels by 2100.

科學家預測氣溫將在 2100 年時，比前工業時期的水平多出 4 度。

They've identified 1.5 degrees of warming⏤global averages half a degree warmer than today's⏤as a threshold beyond which the negative impacts of climate change will become increasingly severe.

科學家們已經確認 1.5 度的暖化（比今日全球平均氣溫高 0.5 度）是一個門檻，超過的話，氣候變遷的負面影響就會嚴重許多。

To keep from crossing that threshold, we need to get our greenhouse gas emissions down to zero as fast as possible.

為了不超過那個門檻，我們必須盡快將溫室氣體排放量降至零。

Or rather, we have to get emissions down to what's called "net-zero",

或者說，我們必須把排放量降到所謂的「淨零排放」，

meaning we may still be putting some greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but we take out as much as we put in.

意思是，我們雖然還是會釋放溫室氣體到大氣中，但我們移除的量跟釋放的量一樣多。

This doesn't mean we can just keep emitting and sequester all that carbon⏤

這並不代表我們可以一直繼續排放並抵押那些碳，

we couldn't keep up with our emissions through natural methods,

畢竟我們無法透過自然方式追感上我們的排放量，

and technological solutions would be prohibitively expensive and require huge amounts of permanent storage.

而技術性的解決方案會過份昂貴且需要大量的永久儲藏空間。

Instead, while we switch from coal, oil, and natural gas to clean energy and fuels⏤which will take time⏤

取而代之的，在我們從煤炭、石油和天然氣轉換成可再生能源與燃料這個漫長的過程中，

we can mitigate the damage by removing carbon from the atmosphere.

我們可以先透過清除大氣中的碳來減輕損害。

Jumping out of the proverbial pot isn't an option, but we can do something the frogs can't:

我們不能選擇跳出這個俗諺指涉的鍋子，但我們可以做青蛙做不到的事：

Can you guess one surprising puzzle we need to solve to run our planet on renewable energy?

你可以猜到我們在用可再生能源協助全球運轉前，需要先破解什麼令人驚訝的謎題嗎？

Or subscribe to our channel and turn on notifications so you never miss our latest planet content.

或者可以訂閱我們的頻道並開啟通知，這樣你就不會錯過我們任何與星球相關的內容。

繼續暸解狀況並持續心懷希望。