The weeks have been cold and long, but it is now clear that in that time this wave of co vid has retreated.

這幾周的時間又冷又長，但現在很明顯，在這段時間裡，這波co vid已經退卻了。

It's not just the office for National Statistics reporting before the numbers testing positive are very much down.

這不僅僅是國家統計局的報告，之前測試陽性的數字是非常多的下降。

Indeed, the fall from the peak at the turn of the year is even more pronounced.

事實上，從年初的高峰期跌落更為明顯。

It's possible one reason for this might be that there are fewer infectious people coming forward for testing.

這其中一個原因可能是，前來檢測的傳染病人比較少。

But we're also seeing the situation improving hospitals, so hospitalizations are now also going down, and they're going down across the country as our admission rates into intensive care.

但是我們也看到醫院的情況在改善，所以現在住院率也在下降，而且隨著我們進入重症監護的入院率，全國的住院率都在下降。

And that's also probably speaking going down in all regions.

而這也可能是說在所有地區都會下降。

But it's really worth noting that still the hospital admission rates So that's the number of people, um, eso the rate of people going into hospital.

但真正值得注意的是，仍然是入院率，所以這是人的數量，嗯，eso的人去醫院的比率。

So the before the population going into hospital, any given week is still higher than it was at the peak in November.

所以，在進醫院的人口之前，任何一個星期都還是比11月的高峰期要高。

Thea the metric his deaths, which lag behind in the first wave.

Thea這個度量衡他的死亡，這在第一波中是落後的。

They exceeded 1000 in a single day.

他們在一天之內就超過了1000人。

Once they fell to a low of seven a day in August put it over 1300 a day in mid January.

曾經在8月份跌到一天7個的低點，1月中旬把一天1300多個。

There have been 21 days with over 1000 deaths in the most recent wave, but they are falling now.

最近一波死亡人數超過1000人的有21天，但現在正在下降。

E think deaths have now peaked, but they're still very high.

E認為現在的死亡人數已經達到頂峰，但仍然很高。

They are coming down on bond.

他們在債券上下來了。

The it's not just deaths that are high, but what we call excess mortality, the number of people dying compared to what would be expected at this time of the year in competitive in the average over the past five years on, that's still still really very high as well.

它不只是死亡人數高，但我們所謂的超額死亡率，死亡人數相比什麼會在這個時候預期在競爭中的一年在過去五年的平均數上，這仍然仍然非常高以及。

So again, it's getting better.

所以又開始好轉了。

Things are on the right side, but there's still a way to go to any kind of seeing any kind of normality.

事情是對的，但要看到任何一種常態，還有一段路要走。

While there have been drops, cases are still higher in some groups.

雖然有所下降，但一些群體的病例仍然較多。

With the embers still burned last year, this graph shows covert infection rates.

去年的火苗還在燃燒，這張圖顯示了隱蔽的感染率。

According toa wealth, the Pink Line shows infections among the wealthiest 20% of the population.

根據財富，粉紅線顯示，最富有的20%的人受到感染。

The Green Line is for the most deprived 20% of the population.

綠線是為最貧困的20%的人服務的。

We see that it is in lock down that a real gulf opens up between the groups, thoughts and our turning toe opening up.

我們看到，正是在鎖定的情況下，群體、思想和我們的轉折腳趾開闢之間才有了真正的鴻溝。

Some fear that despite millions of people vaccinated, if we open up too quickly, we risk.

有人擔心，儘管有數百萬人接種了疫苗，但如果我們開放得太快，就會有風險。

And of the locked out scientists are asking how many cases air acceptable on what does the case mean if people have been vaccinated, so potentially less likely to get sick?

而被鎖定的科學家們都在問有多少病例空氣可以接受的情況下，如果人們已經接種了疫苗，所以潛在的可能性較小的疾病意味著什麼？

This'd is what the chief medical officer said last month.

這d是上個月首席醫療官說的。

The aim of this.

此舉的目的是：

It's a d.

這是一個D。

Risk it as much as possible by the vaccine, to the point where actually we get to the stage where the risk is incredibly low relative to where we are now.

儘可能的通過疫苗來冒這個風險，到實際上我們到了這個階段，風險相對於我們現在的情況來說是非常低的。

I mean, we just say, just as we do with flu, where every year, roughly on an average year, about 7000 people a year die in a bad year, up to 20,000 people a year die.

我的意思是，我們只是說，就像我們對待流感一樣，每年，大概在平均每年，每年大約有7000人死於糟糕的年份，每年最多有20000人死亡。

We accept there is a level of risk that society will tolerate.

我們接受社會能容忍的風險程度。

We have.

我們有。

We should tolerate people die.

我們應該容忍人們的死亡。

That's one of the things that happens.

這也是其中的一種情況。

But if something like that, it's our rain.

但如果有這樣的事情，那就是我們的雨了。

When can we start coming out of lock down?

我們什麼時候可以開始走出封鎖？

I would say it's far too early to be ableto start making any kind of confident judgements around that it's gonna depend on a lot of things about you get vaccinated.

我想說的是，現在開始做出任何一種自信的判斷還為時過早，這取決於你接種疫苗的很多事情。

How quickly on the impact on the benefit of that vaccine on both transmissions, the severity and on any new variants that potentially start emerging with news that the economy has slumped on the numbers of people vaccinated rapidly going up?

如何快速地對該疫苗的好處的影響，無論是傳播，嚴重性和對任何新的變種，潛在的開始出現的消息，經濟已經下滑的人接種疫苗的數量迅速上升？

The question is, where do we need to be?

問題是，我們需要在哪裡？

Toe Open up, Deb.

腳趾張開，Deb。

Cool.

爽啊

Well, let's talk about that now.

好吧，我們現在就來談談這個問題。

Joining me is Richard Horton, editor of The Lancet Medical Journal on the conservative MP.

和我一起的是《柳葉刀醫學雜誌》編輯理查德-霍頓，他是保守派議員。

Damian Green, former first secretary state.

達米安-格林，前第一國務卿。

Good evening to both of you, Richard Horton.

晚上好，兩位，理查德-霍頓。

First of all, as a society, do you think that we have grasped the impact that Corbyn will have on us on for how long?

首先，作為一個社會，你認為我們是否已經掌握了科爾賓對我們的影響會持續多久？

I'm afraid not at all.

恐怕一點也不。

I think we've taken far too short term of perspective.

我覺得我們把眼光看得太短淺了。

We are in a very good position in the near term right now.

我們現在短期內處於一個非常好的位置。

We've seen over two thirds of cases cuts since January.

自1月份以來，我們已經看到超過三分之二的案件被削減。

The fourth.

第四個。

We're on target to get to very low numbers of cases by the end of February early March.

我們的目標是在2月底3月初達到非常低的案件數量。

That does mean that if we can keep those low number of cases stable, We could see some easing of the lock down by mid March, for example, opening primary schools.

這確實意味著，如果我們能夠保持這些低數量的案件穩定，我們可能會在3月中旬看到一些放鬆的鎖定，例如，開放小學。

But that's not the real objective.

但這不是真正的目標。

The real objective is going to be to get the rest of the population vaccinated and go into winter later this year.

真正的目標是要讓其他人群接種疫苗，今年下半年進入冬季。

Aziz protected, as we could be.

阿齊茲保護，因為我們可以。

But we will see a spike in number of cases going into winter on.

但進入冬季後，我們會看到案件數量的激增，在。

We have toe have a multiyear perspective to this.

我們必須要有一個多年的視角來看待這個問題。

It's going to take 2 to 3 to four years to build up the levels of population immunity to really protective.

需要2到3到4年的時間，才能把人群的免疫力水準建立到真正的保護性。

So you say the words, as protected as we can be, is that is protected.

所以你說這句話，我們能保護的，就是那就是保護。

We can be or is protected as we're prepared to be right, So we have broadly two choices.

我們可以被保護，也可以被保護，因為我們做好了正確的準備，所以我們大致有兩個選擇。

We try and suppress transmission as much as possible.

我們儘量抑制傳播。

This has been called Zero Cove it or we say, that that's going to be an impossible dream.

這已經被稱為零灣它或我們說，這將是一個不可能的夢想。

A mirage.

一個海市蜃樓。

Aziz Jonathan Sumption has called it on.

阿齊茲-喬納森-薩莫普特已經叫上了。

Instead, we're going to have to accept a certain level off deaths, as you heard Chris Witty say.

相反，我們將不得不接受一定程度的死亡，就像你聽到克里斯-威蒂說的那樣。

In fact, the number of deaths from influenza has been asshole Aya's 30,000 in any one year in England.

事實上，在英國，任何一年因流感而死亡的人數都混蛋阿雅的3萬。

Is that the number that we're going to have to accept?

這就是我們不得不接受的數字嗎？

That's gonna be a conversation politicians they're gonna have to have with the country.

這將是政治家們必須與國家進行的對話。

Yes, well, let's have a bit of that conversation with one politician now.

是的，好吧，我們現在就來和一位政治家聊一聊。

Damien Green, do you think?

達明-格林，你覺得呢？

I mean Chris Witty did say it there.

我的意思是克里斯-威蒂確實說過。

But do you think that is the message of the government ought to be telling the people, even though it's hard to hear that this is about 2 to 3 years, it's about an acceptable level of deaths, and it's possibly about continuing restrictions in one form or another.

但你認為這是政府應該告訴人們的資訊，即使很難聽到，這是關於2到3年，這是關於一個可接受的死亡水準，它可能是關於以一種或另一種形式繼續限制。

Well, I would take those separately I think I agree with, which is holding that the idea.

好吧，我會把這些分開來，我想我是同意的，就是抱著這個想法。

Zero co vid eyes probably a mirage that it is going to be with us.

零合視頻眼可能是一個海市蜃樓，它將與我們。

We are going to have to live with it, but in practice, looking at that, the whole of society, if you can vaccinate large parts of the other population, particularly the most vulnerable nine groups, which we have got, you know, beat suffered from 99% of the deaths on also the one thing that hasn't been discussed yet, which I know about.

我們將不得不忍受它，但在實踐中，看，整個社會，如果你能接種其他人口的大部分，特別是最脆弱的九個群體，我們已經得到了，你知道，打遭受了99％的死亡上還沒有討論的一件事，我知道。

Hancock is talking about in tomorrow's newspapers is the fact that treatments air coming along so that that fewer people will die than have sadly died in the past.

漢考克在明天的報紙上說的是，治療方法的空氣來了，所以，比過去死的人更少，令人遺憾的是。

The combination of the vaccination program on the treatments might mean and should mean that we can slowly, gradually, cautiously open up with the confidence that we're not going to have to lock down again, even though we we know now that winter's air more difficult than summers, you think slowly, gradually, cautiously, Damian Green.

疫苗接種計劃在治療上的結合可能意味著，也應該意味著我們可以慢慢地，逐漸地，謹慎地打開信心，我們不會再鎖定，即使我們我們現在知道冬天的空氣比夏天更困難，你認為慢慢地，逐漸地，謹慎地，達米安格林。

But don't you think we just have to be honest and say, Look, you know, you might get into a pub, you might get to the outside of a pub.

但你不覺得我們必須誠實地說，你看，你知道，你可能會進入一個酒吧，你可能會得到一個酒吧的外部。

By the beginning of April, you might get into a shop in me.

到4月初，你可能會在我這裡進店。

Do people have the expectation that wham bam is going to come to like the fifth of March?

大家是否有期待，咣噹咣噹會像3月5日一樣到來？

Kids going back in school and everything is gonna open up again?

孩子們要回學校了，一切都要重新開放了？

And when does the government say that is simply not gonna happen?

而政府什麼時候說根本不會發生？

Well, I mean, I think the answer is the government will say the prime minister will say, broadly speaking, what his plan is on February the 22nd.

好吧，我的意思是，我認為答案是政府會說，總理會說，大體上，他的計劃是在2月22日。

We know that on day and it does seem to me very likely that the sequence will be that will open up the schools in March.

我們知道，在日，它確實在我看來很有可能，順序將是，將在三月開放學校。

Um, it would, I think, be sensible to give it a few weeks to see what effect that has on incidents and then say, Maybe retail, outdoor sport.

嗯，這將是明智的，我認為，給它幾個星期 看看有什麼影響，對事件，然後說， 也許零售，戶外運動。

Some of the things that you know some of us have been arguing are relatively safe.

你知道我們一些人一直在爭論的一些事情是相對安全的。

You could do that fairly quickly on then, maybe a month after that.

你可以相當快地在那時做，也許一個月後。

See what?

看到什麼？

The fact that has moved on to hospitality, Thio, pubs and restaurants and so on.

事實上，已經轉移到酒店、Thio、酒吧和餐館等。

So I think the key principle that we must operate under is that we should unlock sensibly so that we never have to go back into this type of lock down.

所以我認為我們必須在關鍵的原則下操作，就是我們應該理智地解鎖，這樣我們就永遠不會再進入這種鎖定狀態。

Richard Horton.

Richard Horton.

They're locked down like this would be disastrous.

他們被鎖住了，這樣做將是災難性的。

Richard Richard Horton, the vaccine.

理查德-霍頓，疫苗。

The vaccine isn't the magic bullet, is it?

疫苗不是靈丹妙藥吧？

Because it has to be a global vaccine or else one of the restrictions were going to face, presumably is not being traveling as freely as we once did.

因為它必須是一個全球性的疫苗，否則，其中的一個限制是要面臨的，大概是不被旅行，因為我們曾經的自由。

That's right.

是的

The unit of success here is not the United Kingdom.

這裡的成功組織、部門不是聯合王國。

It is the whole of the world on This is a virus that has spread across the whole of the planet.

這是整個世界上這是一種病毒，已經蔓延到整個地球上。

So it's in our interest to make sure that vaccines are made available not just to our European neighbors, but to other countries around the world.

是以，確保疫苗不僅提供給我們的歐洲鄰國，而且提供給世界其他國家，符合我們的利益。

And we're a long, long, long way from that at the moment.

而目前我們離這一點還有很長很長的路要走。

So it's great that we've got I think today the number was over 14 million who have had their first dose.

所以，我們已經得到了偉大的，我想今天的數字是超過1400萬誰已經有了他們的第一個劑量。

But it's an illusion to think that our success is going to be sufficient to protect us, because even if we do have high levels of population immunity, our borders will not be secure.

但如果認為我們的成功就足以保護我們，那是一種錯覺，因為即使我們真的擁有高水平的人口免疫力，我們的邊界也不會安全。

And we can't keep locking people up in hotels for the next five years.

我們也不能在未來五年內一直把人關在酒店裡。

So in that case, Damian Green, then there has to be a very direct conversation with the public, which also affects the economy, which is that travel will not be freely available throughout the world until we have a vaccine throughout the world.

所以在這種情況下，達米安-格林，那麼就必須和公眾進行一個非常直接的對話，這也會影響到經濟，那就是在我們在全世界有疫苗之前，全世界的旅行都不會自由。

Well, how available it is in the rest of the world, how much we can travel to other countries is up to the other countries as much as anything on.

好吧，世界上其他國家有多大的可用性，我們能去其他國家旅遊多少，就像任何東西上一樣，取決於其他國家。

But I do think I mean we know that we have with this brilliantly successful vaccination program that we have ordered Mawr than you could possibly need for the British public.

但我確實認為，我的意思是，我們知道，我們有這個輝煌的成功的疫苗接種計劃，我們已經下令毛爾比你可能需要的英國公眾。

Well, we'll be giving our elsewhere then.

好吧，我們會給我們的其他地方，然後。

Presumably we'll be giving it to other countries if we get access.

大概我們如果能拿到，就會給其他國家使用。

If eventually.

如果最終。

Yes, and you know AstraZeneca have said that, you know they're going toe so that use it around the world on don't make any profit out of it, which seems to be holy laudable.

是的，你知道阿斯利康已經說了，你知道他們要去的腳趾，所以，使用它在世界各地的不使任何利潤出來，這似乎是神聖的讚譽。

So yes, we will help other countries, whether our immediate neighbors or indeed, you know, I'll be quite happy to see Britain's efforts around the world in some of the problems, you know.

所以，是的，我們會幫助其他國家，無論是我們的近鄰還是事實上，你知道，我會很高興看到英國在世界各地的一些問題上的努力，你知道。

But I don't.

但我不知道

We also have to see that sooner rather than later, people who cannot afford to stay at home, people who have to go to work, people have to go to work because their jobs will be, are so insecure that they will lose them.

我們也要看到，在家裡呆不下去的人，不得不去工作的人，不得不去工作的人，因為他們的工作會，太沒有安全感了，他們會失去工作。

People are gonna have to do that.

人們會不得不這樣做。

And also the government is very keen to see and says furlough is not forever.

而且政府也非常希望看到，說放假不是永遠的。

So s so the question is, how do you marry people's desperate need to go out to work when they're financially insecure with the levels of locked down release that you're suggesting, because what I'm suggesting is a e.

所以，所以問題是，你如何結婚的人的迫切需要 走出去工作時，他們的財務不安全 與鎖定的水準 釋放，你的建議，因為我的建議是一個e。

I mean, it's gradual in in terms.

我的意思是，它是漸進的方面。

I'm not saying that a soon as you've got the first four groups vaccinated, you open up the whole economy there.

我並不是說，只要你給前四類人接種了疫苗，你就會打開整個經濟的大門。

There are some people like me that I don't agree with that.

有些人和我一樣，我不同意這種說法。

But I think within a few months you can open up large parts of the economy on that would be if you look at wider society.

但我認為，在幾個月內，你可以打開經濟上的很大一部分，將是如果你看看更廣泛的社會。

Obviously, Cove, it is dominating everything.

很顯然，庫夫，它在主導一切。

But we do have to look at mental health as well as economic health on DAT does argue for a gradual return to something like normal life and certainly normal economic activity.

但我們在DAT上確實要看心理健康以及經濟健康，確實主張逐步恢復到類似正常的生活，當然也包括正常的經濟活動。

Normal economic activity only presumably, if you make sure that furlough still exists for people who cannot get back to work well, if you were, the more normal you could make economic activity, the more people can get back to work on DSO.

正常的經濟活動才大概，如果你確保不能很好地恢復工作的人仍然存在放假，如果你是，你可以使經濟活動越正常，越多的人可以恢復工作的DSO。

Yeah, that's good all round.

是的，這是很好的全部。

It's better for people to do jobs than than sitting at home furloughed on.

人做工作總比坐在家裡被辭退上好。

Obviously, given the amount of a huge amount of support that the government has given to the economy.

顯然，鑑於政府對經濟的大量支持。

You know, we can't carry on borrowing like that.

你知道，我們不能再這樣借下去了。

We will have to have normal economic activity back.

我們必須恢復正常的經濟活動。

Thank you both very much indeed.

真的非常感謝兩位。