Name: 新興市場的漲勢可能會持續，但並非沒有顛簸。 (Emerging-market gains may continue, but not without bumps)
Uploaded: 2021-02-07T19:20:25.000Z
Duration: 6 min 5 s

I'm Angeline on our focus today is emerging markets and our guest is Bob Jenkins, global head of research at a definitive Lipper.

我是安吉麗娜，我們今天的重點是新興市場，我們的嘉賓是鮑勃-詹金斯，一個權威的理柏公司的全球研究主管。

分詞構句

The latest data by the Institute of International Finance showed emerging market stocks and bonds saw net inflows off 53 a half billion dollars in January, building on the momentum from the end of last year.

國際金融研究所的最新數據顯示，新興市場股票和債券在1月份出現了535億美元的淨流入，延續了去年年底的勢頭。

This inflow has been reflected in stock prices.

這種流入已經反映在股票價格上。

The MSC emerging market Index shown here is heavily weighted in favor off Chinese stocks such as 10 cent on Alibaba.

這裡顯示的MSC新興市場指數的權重很大程度上是偏離中國股票的，比如阿里巴巴的10分。

It hit another record high on January 25th and is up 30% over the past 12 months.

1月25日再創歷史新高，過去12個月漲幅達30%。

Like all emerging market investing covers differing economies on different continents and not all markets are created equal.

像所有的新興市場投資一樣，涵蓋了不同大陸的不同經濟體，並不是所有的市場都是一樣的。

So how do investors avoid the pitfalls for more on this?

那麼，投資者如何避開陷阱進行更多的瞭解呢？

I'm now joined by Bob Jenkins off definitive leper.

現在有鮑勃-詹金斯加入我的行列... ... ... ........

Thank you so much for joining us now, Bob, You say emerging markets will outperform in the second half.

非常感謝你現在加入我們的行列，鮑勃，你說新興市場下半年的表現會優於其他市場。

You know thanks for having me Jan Angelina.

你知道嗎，謝謝你邀請我，楊-安吉麗娜。

They coming into this year the evaluations for emerging markets were really a historic lows.

他們進入今年後，對新興市場的評價真的是歷史低點。

If you look over the past 20 years, particularly Visa for the U.

如果你看過去20年，特別是美國的Visa。

Markets, they're quite low on evaluation Perspective, performance wise, they've been doing well.

市場，他們的評價視角相當低，業績方面，他們一直做得不錯。

As you mentioned, e em, Emerging market equities did pretty well in 2020 equaling about the U.

正如你所提到的，e em，新興市場股票在2020年的表現相當不錯，約等於美國。

But the prior two years they lagged a little bit.

So I think in general, recovering global economies were gonna help ratchet up demand for basic materials.

所以我認為總體上來說，全球經濟的復甦會有助於增加對基礎材料的需求。

You also have that overriding backdrop of the weaker dollar, with the feds seemingly committed to keeping it that way for at least the next 12 18 months.

你還有一個最重要的背景是美元疲軟，美聯儲似乎承諾至少在未來12 18個月內保持這種狀態。

That that helps countries who are exporting primarily it also a system with their debt coverage.

這有助於那些以出口為主的國家它也是一個系統，他們的債務覆蓋率。

So, yes, the emerging markets have floated record amount of new debt over the course of the last year, and they're on a good place to do so.

所以，是的，新興市場在過去一年的時間裡，新債發行量創下了歷史紀錄，而且他們的發展態勢良好。

That this year is Well, that could be scary down the road.

今年是 嗯，這可能是可怕的道路。

If you think about it, If the dollar starts to strengthen now, the middle of this.

如果你仔細想想，如果美元現在開始走強，這中間。

You also say in your research I've been reading that China will take the lead.

你也說在你的研究中，我一直在看，中國會率先發展。

Is this purely because, Bob that they were first in first out pandemic wise Or are there other reasons?

這純粹是因為，鮑勃，他們是第一個在先出的大流行還是有其他原因？

Yes, they were, you know, kind of ahead of the curve, if you will, on how they've experienced a pandemic.

是的，他們是，你知道，那種超前的曲線， 如果你願意，在如何他們已經經歷了一個流行病。

And one would suspect that that kind of pent up consumer demand that we expect a lot of developed countries to start to see over the course of the second half of the year will probably hit them quicker.

人們會猜測，我們預計很多發達國家在下半年開始出現的那種積壓的消費需求，可能會更快地衝擊它們。

And so that should kind of again be a really shot in the arm to the economy, if you will.

所以，這應該是一種再次是一個真正的注射手臂的經濟，如果你願意。

Using current vernacular global manufacturing in general has rebounded quite nicely, really across the board that benefits China, whether or not they're doing the manufacturing of the supplying it.

用現在的白話全球製造業總體上已經反彈的相當好，真的是全面受益的中國，不管他們是不是做製造的供應的。

And and then you think about the hard line that they've been having with the US on trade.

然後你再想想他們在貿易上與美國的強硬路線。

Biden his signal so far that he's probably gonna continue that hard line.

拜登他的信號到目前為止，他可能會繼續這種強硬路線。

But I would sense that he's probably gonna mend fences a little bit with China.

但我會感覺到，他可能會和中國修補一下關係。

We still have those current trade agreements in place and all the tariffs.

我們仍然有那些現行的貿易協定和所有的關稅。

Uh, it's gonna be interesting to see whether not we actually see any softening of that stance.

呃，這將是有趣的，看看我們是否真的看到任何軟化的立場。

But of course that would be another tailwind on Bob.

不過，這當然會成為鮑勃的另一個尾巴。

You mentioned wild cars as well in this e m space.

你在這個e m空間也提到了野車。

Well, you know, the biggest wildcard is just going to the efficacy of the vaccine, right?

嗯，你知道，最大的通配符就是要去疫苗的功效，對吧？

And if that roll out of that vaccine is delayed at all, that's going to be a big problem in terms of that second half recovery that we're looking to see across the world.

如果該疫苗的推出被完全延後，這將是一個很大的問題，在下半年的復甦，我們希望在世界各地看到。

But then you think about individual countries who have some sort of instability or to be political or otherwise.

但是你再想想個別國家有一些不穩定的因素，或者是要政治或其他。

Right now, Russia will be a headliner in that regard, and they've been struggling and probably were due to start having better performance this year.

眼下，俄羅斯將是這方面的頭牌，他們一直在努力，可能今年應該開始有更好的表現。

But right now, what's going on over there?

And when you look at other countries such as Brazil, they perhaps even South Africa, these areas where that instability kind of wild card could pop up and create some problems.

而當你看看其他國家，如巴西，他們甚至可能是南非，這些地區，不穩定的那種野牌可能會出現，併產生一些問題。

So, given all this Bob, would you buy hold or a sell on the sector?

那麼，鑑於這一切，鮑勃，你會在該板塊上買入持有還是賣出？

See, I would recommend to buy into this space.

Of course, whenever you talk about emerging markets, got to be really conscious of the volatility that comes along with it, and also that you're not gonna have this nice, smooth, long term right about performance either.

當然，每當你談論新興市場時，一定要真正意識到隨之而來的波動性，而且你也不會有這種漂亮的、平穩的、長期的表現。

So you got to be very careful about the fact that you're going to invest appropriately according to allocations.

所以你一定要非常小心，你要根據分配情況進行適當的投資。

So it's an area where you got to be careful in that regard.

As a fund analyst, I think about this, and I think about really investing in active products At the end of the day, you wanna have a management team with experience with boots on the ground in these regions and are able to act dynamically as kind of situations change because we know they can thank you very much.

作為一個基金分析師，我想過這個問題，我也想過要真正投資於主動型產品。 最後，你希望有一個有經驗的管理團隊，在這些地區實地考察，並且能夠隨著形勢的變化而採取動態行動，因為我們知道他們會非常感謝你。

That was Bob Jenkins, global head of research at a definitive leper.

那是一家權威麻風病公司的全球研究主管鮑勃-詹金斯。

Now, to some of the top stories in the M space, the Russian ruble continues to be under pressure amid a government crackdown on protesters and supporters of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

現在，到M空間的一些熱門新聞，在政府鎮壓抗議者和克里姆林宮批評家阿列克謝-納瓦爾尼的支持者的情況下，俄羅斯盧布繼續承受壓力。

The threat of US sanctions on Russia helped drive the currency beyond 76 to the dollar last week.

美國對俄羅斯的制裁威脅幫助推動該貨幣在上週超過76兌1美元。

Now, South Korea's central bank has warned of rising imbalances as a result in a surgeon, asset prices across property on stock markets and a build up in debt to the benchmark KOSPI has more than doubled since last year and housing affordability is at its worst ever on Finally, India this week boosted health care spending by 135% and lifted caps on foreigners investing in its vast insurance market to help revive an economy that suffered its deepest recorded slump as a result of the pandemic.

現在，韓國央行已經警告說，由於激增，股市上的整個房地產的資產價格和債務的積累導致失衡上升，自去年以來，基準KOSPI已經增加了一倍多，住房負擔能力是有史以來最糟糕的最後，印度本週將醫療保健支出提高了135％，並取消了外國人投資其龐大的保險市場的上限，以幫助恢復經濟，該經濟因大流行病而遭受了最深的記錄下滑。

Delivering her budget to parliament on Monday, Finance Minister Nirmala Seetharaman also said the current year's fiscal deficit would surged to 9.5% off GDP in there currently spends about 1% of GDP on health, among the lowest for any major economy.

財政部長Nirmala Seetharaman週一向議會提交了她的預算，她還表示，今年的財政赤字將飆升至9.5％，關閉GDP在那裡目前花費約1％的GDP在健康，任何主要經濟體中最低。

That is your round up off the emerging market sector.

這是你對新興市場領域的總結。