It's no big deal in Asia.

這在亞洲沒什麼大不了的。

They've been doing it long before the coronavirus pandemic.

早在冠狀病毒大流行之前，他們就已經這樣做了。

Western countries have been more reluctant to adopt face masks as a useful tool to fight the virus way.

西方國家更不願意採用面膜這種有用的工具來對抗病毒的方式。

Don't generally recommend the wearing of masks in public by otherwise, well, individuals because it has not been up to now associated with any particular benefit.

一般不建議在公共場合戴口罩，否則，個人，因為它還沒有到現在與任何特定的好處。

But eventually, opinion changed fancy home.

但最終，輿論改變了花樣的家。

Soon, masks popped up everywhere and experts changed their tune, People congregating often without masks, of being in crowds and jumping over and avoiding and not paying attention to the guidelines that we very carefully put out.

很快，到處都出現了口罩，專家們也改了口風，人們經常不戴口罩就聚集在一起，在人群中的跳過和避開，不注意我們非常小心地放出的準則。

We're going to continue to be in a lot of trouble, and there's gonna be a lot of hurt if that does not stop.

我們將繼續面臨很多麻煩，如果這種情況不停止，會有很多傷害。

A small variants of the virus emerged.

出現了病毒的小變種。

Medical masks were back on the agenda, even becoming mandatory in some places.

醫用口罩又被提上日程，甚至在一些地方成為強制性的。

But can masks really beat the virus?

但口罩真的能戰勝病毒嗎？

That's the question.

這就是問題所在。

Well, counter are covered.

好了，櫃檯都被覆蓋。

19 special.

19個特別。

I'm Monica Jones in Berlin.

我是柏林的莫妮卡-瓊斯

Good to have you with us.

很高興你和我們在一起。

And just in case you're wondering, why isn't she wearing a mask?

萬一你想知道，她為什麼不戴面具？

Well, the studio is pretty much the only place I can take it off for now because things keep changing, just like the virus itself.

好吧，工作室是我目前唯一能脫身的地方，因為事情一直在變，就像病毒本身一樣。

And that also goes for the acceptance off wearing masks on the evidence that they really help curb the spread off the virus.

而這也為接受關閉戴口罩的證據，他們真的有助於遏制傳播關閉病毒。

In fact, a study from Germany has found that facemask could reduce the number of new Kobe 19 infections 20 days after their mandatory introductions, anywhere from 15 to 75%.

事實上，來自德國的一項研究發現，面罩可以在其強制引入後20天內減少新的科比19感染的數量，從15％到75％。

Researchers also found that the reduction in new cases was the most for those above 60 years of age.

研究人員還發現，60歲以上的人群新發病例減少最多。

This is the first study to identify causal effects in a population rather than in a clinical setting, highlighting the correlation between wearing face masks on a drop in new infections.

這是第一個在人群中而不是在臨床環境中確定因果關係的研究，強調了佩戴口罩對新感染率下降的相關性。

Classified, a professor of economics at the Johannes Gutenberg University minds is the co author off this study, and he joins me now, Good to have you with us.

分類，經濟學教授 在約翰內斯-古騰堡大學的頭腦 是這項研究的共同作者， 他現在加入我，很高興你和我們在一起。

Uh, what I noticed is that your study doesn't mention specific facemasks.

呃，我注意到的是，你的研究並沒有提到具體的面罩。

Why not now?

為什麼不是現在？

That's true.

這倒是真的。

We don't mention specific facemask because the regulation at that time just required to wear any mask.

我們不提具體的面罩，因為當時的規定只是要求戴任何面罩。

So these were probably normal, self made homemade masks.

所以這些可能是普通的，自己自制的面膜。

Okay, so we don't really know about the efficacy when we take into consideration the medical masks, which are now mandatory in many places or FFP mask?

好吧，如果考慮到現在很多地方都強制使用的醫用口罩或者FFP口罩，我們真的不知道功效如何？

Or do you have a hunch?

還是你有預感？

Would there be even more effective?

會不會有更有效的？

Well, yes, of course.

嗯，是的，當然。

I mean, there are other studies that study in detail Which type of mask is for effective.

我的意思是，還有其他的研究，詳細研究哪種類型的面膜是為有效。

And we know, of course, that, uh, lost masks are not the best one.

我們當然知道，呃，丟失的面具不是最好的一個。

So f f p to mask as an example, they have a much better filtering system.

所以以f f p來掩飾為例，他們有更好的過濾系統。

Okay, but apart from the model or the material off a face mask, what other factors play a role in in making wearing a mask?

好吧，但除了模特或面膜的材質外，還有哪些因素在讓戴面膜時起到作用呢？

Effective?

有效嗎？

I believe your study also points to different regions.

我相信你的研究也指向不同的區域。

Different climate.

不同的氣候。

Yeah, well, regions and climate.

是啊，地區和氣候。

I'm not so sure, but But what definitely matters is how good a mask fits.

我也不太清楚，但是但絕對重要的是面膜的貼合度。

So if a za manu where Ah, beard, then Of course, there's a lot off airflow at the edge of the mask, and this can be a problem.

所以，如果一個za manu哪裡啊，鬍子，那麼當然，有很多關閉氣流在面具的邊緣，這可能是一個問題。

And in any case, with any mask, it depends on the environment.

而在任何情況下，任何面具，都要看環境。

If you are in a, uh, contaminated, uh, if you inhale contaminated ambient air, then you can get infected anyway.

如果你是在一個，呃，汙染， 呃，如果你吸入汙染的環境空氣， 那麼你可以得到感染反正。

I mean, droplets and very small droplets.

我的意思是，水滴和非常小的水滴。

They enter anyway, right?

反正他們也會進入，對吧？

I just had to smile because you mentioned beards.

我只是不得不笑，因為你提到了鬍子。

And I know a few colleagues here, including our science correspondent, who will find it difficult to part with the beard.

而我知道在座的幾位同事，包括我們的科學記者，都會覺得難以割捨鬍子。

But back to the efficacy of a face mask.

但回到面膜的功效。

The average in your study says it's that around 45 47% that's a good start.

你們研究的平均數說是45 47%左右，這是一個好的開始。

But it means that we also need different measures to win this fight.

但這意味著，我們還需要採取不同的措施來贏得這場戰鬥。

Which rules are the most important?

哪些規則是最重要的？

Are all the rules that we need in place from your point of view?

從你的角度來看，我們需要的規則都有了嗎？

Well, it's definitely true.

嗯，這絕對是真的。

Mask are not the only measure we should employ.

面膜不是我們應該採用的唯一措施。

There should be other rules.

應該還有其他規則。

But if I should say something about rules, I mean, rules are one thing, but compliance to rules.

但如果要我說規則的話，我的意思是，規則是一回事，但遵守規則。

It's a much different things.

這是一個更不同的事情。

When we look, for example, at the sudden increase off infections before Christmas, then we This cannot be related to rules because the rules didn't change at that time.

當我們看，例如，在聖誕節前的突然增加關閉感染，那麼我們這不可能與規則有關，因為當時的規則並沒有改變。

But we know from ability data that around Christmas, which can be understood but nevertheless, around Christmas, mobility increased a lot, so the question is, how much compliance is there, Thio rules in the private environment.

但我們從能力數據中知道，聖誕節前後，這可以理解，但儘管如此，聖誕節前後，流動性增加了很多，所以問題是，在私人環境中，Thio規則的合規性有多大。

And then another issue is, for example, the masks at workplace.

再比如，另一個問題是，工作場所的口罩。

I recently went to a small enterprise for mechanical repairs.

最近我去一家小企業做機械維修。

Uh, and everybody was without mask.

呃，大家都沒戴面具。

I mean, I was shocked.

我的意思是，我很震驚。

I mean, so mask at the workplace.

我的意思是，所以在工作場所的面具。

They would all That would be a good measure as well.

他們都會 這也是一個很好的措施。

Exactly.

就是這樣

And you just mentioned statistics with looking at mobility before Christmas.

而你剛才提到的統計與看聖誕節前的流動性。

I mean, we've we've been flooded with statistics on daily infection numbers.

我的意思是，我們... ...我們已經被淹沒在每天的感染人數統計中了。

Now for almost a year now on.

現在已經快一年了。

More recently, sadly, we also get the daily death numbers.

最近，可悲的是，我們還得到了每天的死亡數字。

But how helpful are those statistics when it comes to assessing the situation?

但是，在評估形勢時，這些統計數據有多大幫助呢？

Right now, Yeah.

現在，是的。

This is a very important question.

這是一個非常重要的問題。

The daily reported infection numbers we hear every day they have serious statistical problems.

我們每天聽到的日常報告感染數字他們有嚴重的統計問題。

There's a systematic bias.

有一個系統性的偏見。

Where does this bias come from?

這種偏見從何而來？

Well, we test for different reasons.

嗯，我們測試的原因不同。

One example is we test when people go to a doctor and have symptoms, and then we test the individuals who had contact with the person who is infected or we test individuals that return from holidays.

一個例子是，當人們去看醫生，有症狀的時候，我們就會檢測，然後我們會檢測與感染者有過接觸的個體，或者我們檢測假期回來的個體。

The statistical problem resulting from this is when the relative importance off how many tests you undertake because of symptoms or because of travelers or because of other reasons.

由此產生的統計問題是，當相對重要性關你進行多少測試，因為症狀或因為旅行者或因為其他原因。

When this relative share changes, then the reported number of infections are not comparable over time.

當這一相對份額髮生變化時，那麼報告的感染人數就無法隨時間的推移而進行比較。

Um, there are, of course, other statistics which are less biased when we think about the number of individuals in intensive care units.

嗯，當然，還有其他的統計數字，當我們考慮到重症監護室的人數時，這些統計數字就不會有太大的偏差。

I mean, this is definitely very unbiased.

我的意思是，這絕對是非常不偏不倚的。

This is a very good measure.

這是一個非常好的措施。

And then, as you said, the number of deaths you don't want to hear this, but this is also unbiased measure, but unfortunately, these measures are delayed.

然後，正如你所說的，死亡人數你不想聽到這個，但這也是不偏不倚的措施，但不幸的是，這些措施被延遲了。

No, I mean, this is not, uh, instantaneous.

不，我的意思是，這不是，呃，即時的。

Measure off how severe pandemic is.

衡量關疫情的嚴重程度。

So what we should do is we should not just test individuals.

所以，我們應該做的是，我們不應該只考核個人。

I mean, testing is extremely important test as much as possible.

我的意思是，測試是極其重要的測試儘可能多。

But we should also report why individuals were tested.

但是，我們也應該報告個人被檢測的原因。

And if we knew, for example, all the positive tests off individuals that were tested because they had symptoms, then we should.

如果我們知道，例如，所有的陽性測試 關閉個人的測試，因為他們有症狀， 那麼我們應該。

Then we would count covert 19 cases, so cases off the disease and this would be an unbiased measure off the severity off the pandemic.

然後，我們將計算隱蔽的19個病例，所以病例的疾病，這將是一個公正的措施的嚴重性關閉流行病。

Okay, so there is definitely some homework to be done.

好吧，所以肯定要做一些功課。

Certainly when it comes to effective testing.

當然，在進行有效測試時。

Just very briefly.

只是非常簡短的。

At what point do you think?

你認為在什麼時候？

Can we been our masks?

我們能做我們的面具嗎？

Uh, well, when the pandemic is over, Simple answer.

呃，好吧，當疫情結束後，簡單的答案。

Okay, if if if I had to give a rule, um, wait for the number of patients in intensive care units to fall to a level that we had in spring 2020 then we can be more relaxed.

好吧，如果如果如果我必須給一個規則，嗯，等待重症監護室的病人數量下降到2020年春季的水準，那麼我們可以更放鬆。

So we need to use unbiased measures.

所以我們需要使用不偏不倚的措施。

And on this, we can based long term rules and long term planning.

而在此基礎上，我們可以根據長期規則和長期規劃。

All right, that sounds like a good plan.

好吧，這聽起來是個好計劃。

Class Veda, professor of economics of Johannes Gutenberg University minds and co author of the study on Facemasks.

類維達，約翰內斯-古登堡大學頭腦經濟學教授，也是Facemasks研究的共同作者。

Thank you so much.

非常感謝你。

You're welcome.

不客氣

So testing and wearing face masks to reduce the number of infections That's half the battle won.

所以，測試和佩戴面膜，以減少感染的數量，這是一半的戰鬥勝利。

But some cases are less easy to trace than others.

但有些情況下就不那麼容易追查了。

Which brings us to one of your questions and over to our science correspondent, Derek Williams.

這就給我們帶來了你們的一個問題 現在請我們的科學記者德里克-威廉姆斯發言

What do estimates now say about the percentage of infections caused by asymptomatic cases?

現在估計由無症狀病例引起的感染比例如何？

To answer this, we have to first look at differences and similarities in asymptomatic and pre symptomatic carriers of Cove in 19.

要回答這個問題，我們首先要看19中無症狀和症狀前Cove攜帶者的異同。

Now, if someone is infected with the virus.

現在，如果有人感染了病毒。

It might take time to develop symptoms, but most people eventually do.

可能需要一段時間才能出現症狀，但大多數人最終還是會出現。

They're just pre symptomatic for a while.

他們只是前期症狀的一段時間。

One of the things that's made this disease so hard to combat is that, unlike, for example, people who got SARS, we think Cove in 19 patients grow most contagious late in their incubation period.

使這種疾病如此難以打擊的事情之一是，不像，例如，得了非典的人，我們認為科夫在19個病人生長最具有傳染性的潛伏期晚。

So so while the virus is reproducing rapidly but before they begin to show symptoms for some reason, truly asymptomatic people never developed symptoms but apparently go through a similar stage of shedding the virus.

所以，所以當病毒快速繁殖的時候，但在他們開始出現症狀之前，由於某種原因，真正沒有症狀的人從來沒有出現過症狀，但顯然要經歷類似的病毒脫落階段。

What asymptomatic and pre symptomatic people have in common are those few days where both are carrying the virus and shedding it.

無症狀和症狀前期的人有一個共同點，就是那幾天都帶著病毒，而且還在脫落。

Yet neither is showing any sign of disease.

然而兩人都沒有任何疾病的跡象。

So maybe we should instead ask how many people are getting Covad, 19 from people who aren't showing any symptoms?

所以，也許我們應該改問一下，有多少人得了科威，19人來自沒有任何症狀的人？

A recent study published by CDC specialists tried toe answer that question.

最近，疾控中心專家發表的一項研究試圖回答這個問題。

The researchers had to make a couple of educated guesses, but based on data from other studies, they assumed that close to a third of all people who catch the virus remain truly asymptomatic and that they're around 75% as infectious as those with full blown disease.

研究人員不得不做出幾個有教養的猜測，但基於其他研究的數據，他們假設接近三分之一的所有感染病毒的人保持真正的無症狀和他們大約75%的傳染性作為那些與全面的疾病。

If those baseline assumptions are correct, asymptomatic people would be responsible for around a quarter of all cove in 19 infections.

如果這些基線假設是正確的，那麼無症狀的人將對19個感染中約四分之一的cove負責。

Pre symptomatic transmitters are thought to pass it along at even higher rates than that.

症狀前的傳播者被認為會以比這更高的速度傳播。

So the model therefore predicts over half of all cases of Cove in 19 are transmitted by people who have no symptoms at the time they transmit it.

所以，該模型是以預測，19年科沃斯的所有病例中，有一半以上是由傳播時沒有症狀的人傳播的。

No wonder tracing infection chains has proven so difficult.

難怪追溯感染鏈被證明如此困難。

It's more support for the advice that that wearing masks in public is a good idea, even if no one around you is coughing.

更是支持這樣的建議：在公共場合戴口罩是個好主意，即使身邊沒有人咳嗽。

Which brings us back to the topic off this program.

這讓我們回到這個節目的主題。

That was Derrick Williams, of course, and he'll be back to answer more of your questions again tomorrow.

當然，那是德里克-威廉姆斯，明天他還會再來回答你更多的問題。

That's all for this edition off Kobe 19 Special.

這一期的科比19特別版就到這裡了。

But as we're all staffed of arts and culture in these trying times, we want to leave you with some images from eternal Rome, from the Coliseum to the Vatican Museum, which you can visit again with a face mask.

但在這個艱難的時代，我們都是藝術和文化的工作人員，我們想給你留下一些永恆的羅馬的圖片，從競技場到梵蒂岡博物館，你可以帶著面具再去看看。

Of course, enjoy the views.

當然，欣賞美景。