Get a free audiobook in a 30 day free trial.

在30天的免費試聽中獲得免費的有聲讀物。

When you sign up at audible dot com slash real life floor.

當你在audible dot com斜線現實生活樓註冊。

Elon Musk is no stranger to Twitter.

埃隆-馬斯克對Twitter並不陌生。

With over 42 million followers, he ranks 33rd overall on the site, just slightly behind NASA itself.

他擁有超過4200萬的粉絲，在網站上總排名第33位，僅略遜於NASA本身。

And while yeah, Ellen will often put some pretty silly means to his account, it's also a pretty useful tool to see inside of his mind.

雖然是的，艾倫經常會把一些很愚蠢的手段放在他的賬戶上，但這也是一個很有用的工具，可以看到他的內心。

Take, for instance, a tweet he replied to roughly a year ago, where someone asked about putting one million people on Mars by the year 2050 and musk, the ever optimists replied with a simple Yes, But how realistic is that?

以他大概一年前回復的一條推特為例，有人問到2050年把100萬人送上火星，一向樂觀的馬斯克回答了一個簡單的Yes，但這有多現實？

Really?

真的嗎？

I mean, that's less than 30 years away from now, and a million people is a whole lot of people.

我的意思是，那是離現在不到30年的時間了，而一百萬人就是一大堆人了。

Essentially, it would basically be like taking the entirety of Austin, Texas, and transporting everyone who lives there and all of their infrastructure over to Mars.

本質上，這基本上就像是把整個德克薩斯州的奧斯汀， 把所有生活在那裡的人和他們所有的基礎設施都運到火星上去。

Not to even mention that Mars is, on average, 100 million miles away, and it takes anywhere between six and eight months just to get there, and that is only going one way.

更何況火星平均距離一億英里，光是到火星就需要6到8個月的時間，而且這還只是單程。

So let's dive into how possible this really is.

那麼，讓我們來深入研究一下這到底有多大的可能。

First, let's begin by discussing the technology itself and see if this really even can be done at all.

首先，我們先來討論一下技術本身，看看這是否真的能完全做到。

The key component for this insane migration of people toe happen revolves around Space.

這場瘋狂的人口遷徙發生的關鍵因素是圍繞著空間展開的。

X's latest rocket ship, known as Starship Starship, is a fully reusable, super heavy lift vehicle that has been under development since 2018.

X公司最新的火箭飛船被稱為 "星際飛船"，是一種完全可重複使用的超級重型升降飛行器，自2018年開始研發。

Still in the prototype stage as of today, the rocket, once complete, will consist of two stages.

截至目前仍處於原型階段，火箭一旦完成，將由兩級組成。

The super heavy booster for the first stage and the starship itself for the second.

第一級為超重型助推器，第二級為星艦本身。

Once completed on the launch, pad, Starship will stand at 122 m tall and weigh a whopping 150 tons, making it the largest rocket ship ever built.

一旦在發射，臺上完成，星際飛船將高達122米，重量高達150噸，成為有史以來最大的火箭飛船。

Further, the rocket will be 3.5 times as powerful as the Saturn five rocket that sent NASA astronauts to the moon several decades ago and will be capable of carrying 100 tons of payload into orbit and further on towards Mars, which in terms of our favorite reference on this channel, means that each rocket could carry 67 entire Toyota Corollas toe Mars on every trip, as mentioned previously, and much like Space X is accustomed to.

此外，這枚火箭的威力將是幾十年前將NASA太空人送上月球的土星五號火箭的3.5倍，能夠攜帶100噸的有效載荷進入軌道，並進一步向火星進發，用我們這個頻道最喜歡的提法來說，這意味著每枚火箭每趟可以攜帶67輛整車的豐田卡羅拉前往火星，就像之前提到的，和Space X習慣的一樣。

The rocket will be fully reusable as soon as the rocket takes off and it's boosted into space.

火箭一起飛，助推火箭進入太空，就可以完全重複使用。

The first stage will descend back to Earth and land much like the space X Falcon nine does today.

第一級將降回地球並降落，就像今天的太空X獵鷹九號一樣。

And further, the starship will also be capable of landing itself upright to.

而進一步的，該星艦還將能夠直立著陸，以。

But while you might think great, all that has to be done is designed this rocket ship and begin blasting willing participants straight to Mars.

不過當你覺得很好的時候，要做的就是設計好這艘火箭飛船，然後開始把願意參加的人直接轟上火星。

It's obviously going to be a lot more complicated than that.

這顯然要比這複雜得多。

You see.

你看

Once launched from Earth, Starship will need to be refueled before beginning its journey to Mars.

從地球發射後，"星際飛船 "在開始火星之旅前需要補充燃料。

This is because although it's a massively powerful rocket, it will still take the majority of its fuel just to break free from Earth's gravity.

這是因為雖然它是一枚威力巨大的火箭，但僅僅是為了擺脫地球引力的束縛，還是要耗費大部分的燃料。

Thus, for every rocket heading to Mars, a subsequent rocket will also need to be launched to refuel each ship.

是以，每一枚前往火星的火箭，還需要發射後續火箭為每艘飛船加油。

And to further complicate this process, however, is the fact that Earth and Mars are also at ever changing distances apart.

而讓這個過程更加複雜的是，地球和火星的距離也在不斷變化。

That is because Mars follows what is known as an eccentric orbit, meaning that, unlike the orbit of Earth, it is far from circular.

這是因為火星遵循的是所謂的偏心軌道，也就是說，與地球軌道不同，火星的軌道遠非圓形。

So while at times thier earth is pretty close to Mars, amounting to just 33.9 million miles away, at other times it is much, much further, or something like 200 50 million miles apart.

所以，雖然有時地球離火星很近，相當於只有3390萬英里的距離，但在其他時候卻要遠得多，遠得多，或者說相隔2億5千萬英里。

So rather than, say, launch a rocket whenever it is much prefer toe wait for the Earth Mars transfer window, as it's known, which just so happens to occur every 26 months.

所以，與其說，隨時發射火箭，不如說，更願意趾高氣揚地等待地球火星轉移窗口，正所謂每隔26個月就會出現一次。

But the complications don't stop here because, well, yeah, you could make it to Mars.

但複雜的情況還不止於此，因為，是的，你可以去火星。

Under the previous circumstances, traveling home wouldn't be possible at all because all of the fuel would have been expended during the journey.

在以前的情況下，根本不可能回家，因為旅途中會消耗掉所有的燃料。

Just getting there.

才剛到那裡。

And this is why the first settlers who get there will have to set up a fuel production facility straight away.

而這也是為什麼第一批到達那裡的定居者要直接建立燃料生產設施的原因。

Otherwise, well, I guess Good luck ever coming home or making use of those reusable rockets again.

不然的話，我想祝你好運，永遠不會回家，或者再次使用那些可重複使用的火箭。

The fuel that will most likely Power Starship on its journey to Mars will be something known as deep cryo method locks or essentially just methane and liquid oxygen.

在前往火星的旅途中，最有可能的 "動力星艦 "的燃料將是一種被稱為深低溫法鎖的東西，或者說基本上只有甲烷和液氧。

The trouble, however, will be producing these on Mars and finding an efficient way to do so.

然而，麻煩的是在火星上生產這些東西，並找到一種有效的方法。

What is likely the solution, however, will be to use the ice melt found on Mars for water, as well as the large amount of carbon dioxide that could be found in the Martian atmosphere.

不過，可能的解決辦法是利用火星上發現的冰雪融水，以及火星大氣中可能存在的大量二氧化碳。

Together, along with a complex chemical conversion process, the propellant can be produced, but it will take an enormous amount of energy to do so.

一起，加上覆雜的化學轉化過程，推進劑是可以生產出來的，但這需要巨大的能量。

In fact, to fill the 1200 ton fuel tank of Starship, it is expected that roughly 16 gigawatt hours of locally Martian produce power will be required.

事實上，為了給 "星際飛船 "1200噸的油箱加滿油，預計大約需要16千兆瓦時的在地火星生產電力。

Thus, if you were to stay on the surface of Mars for the entire 26 months and wait until the next transfer orbit, you would roughly need to produce something like one megawatt of continuous electric power, which, at least by today's standards, will take about 10.5 American size football fields worth of solar arrays.

是以，如果你要在火星表面呆上整整26個月，等到下一次轉移軌道，你大概需要產生類似一兆瓦的連續電力，至少按照今天的標準，這需要大約10.5個美國足球場大小的太陽能電池陣列。

Needless to say, you better be packing a lot of these for the trip.

不用說，你最好帶很多這樣的東西去旅行。

Now, let's just assume that all of these incredible technical challenges air overcome.

現在，讓我們假設所有這些不可思議的技術挑戰都被克服了。

I mean, I wouldn't put it past the lawn, but there is still one MAWR massive logistical problem, right now, Space six is hoping to launch the first trips to Mars in the mid to late 20 twenties this decade, which would leave just 25 years left to achieve the goal of one million people on Mars by 2050.

我的意思是，我不會把它放在過去的草坪上，但仍然有一個mawr巨大的後勤問題，現在，太空六號希望在本十年的20年代中後期發射第一批火星之旅，這將只剩下25年的時間來實現2050年100萬人上火星的目標。

Over these 25 years, there will only be 12 transfer windows to send rockets to Mars.

在這25年裡，只有12個轉移窗口可以將火箭送上火星。

Musk is hinted before that.

馬斯克在這之前就暗示。

During each transfer window, he would hope to send roughly 1000 rocket ships towards Mars at a time, meaning that essentially 1000 ships would take off, be re fueled and wait in Earth's orbit.

在每個轉移窗口期間，他希望每次能向火星發送大約1000艘火箭飛船，這意味著基本上有1000艘飛船將起飛，重新加註燃料，並在地球軌道上等待。

And all moved towards Mars together as one colossal fleet, with each ship carrying roughly 100 people.

而且都是作為一個巨大的艦隊一起向火星移動，每艘船大概能載100人。

That means that each transfer window would allow for an additional 100,000 people to make the journey and across the 12 transfer windows available between 2025 2050.

這意味著，每個轉會窗口都能讓10萬人多走一趟，而且在2025年2050年之間的12個轉會窗口中，都能讓人多走一趟。

Well, then, the one million Martian population mark can easily be eclipsed.

那麼，100萬火星人口的大關很容易被超越。

But one important item not to overlook is the fact that there will likely need to be many exclusively cargo missions as well, in order to send the critically needed supporting infrastructure and supplies.

但有一個重要的項目不容忽視，那就是很可能還需要很多專門的貨運任務，以便運送急需的配套基礎設施和物資。

In fact, musk has hinted before that the cargo to person ratio would be something like 10 toe one, meaning that for every one rocket ship destined to carry 100 people to Mars on additional 10 would need to be sent carrying supplies.

事實上，馬斯克之前就曾暗示過，貨與人的比例會是10比1的樣子，也就是說，每一艘註定要搭載100人去火星的火箭飛船上，就需要額外派出10人攜帶補給。

So in all likely reality, it would probably be something mawr like 100,000 or even Mawr starship trips required just to get to the one million people on Mars.

所以，在所有可能的現實中，可能會有一些像10萬甚至是莫爾的星艦旅行需要，只是為了到達火星上的100萬人口。

Goal.

目標：

So with all of that in mind, the reality of meeting the goal becomes quite complex, with just 12 transfer windows available between 2025 2050 that would be an average of 8333 ships sent during each of those windows.

所以考慮到這些，實現目標的現實情況就變得相當複雜了，2025年2050年之間只有12個轉會窗口，那就是平均每個窗口期間要發送8333艘船。

And not only that, but you would also have to consider the fact that you would essentially need double the amount of those ships as half of them would be stuck on the Red Planet waiting to come home until the next transfer window opens.

不僅如此，你還得考慮到，你基本上需要雙倍數量的艦船，因為其中一半的艦船會停留在紅色星球上，等待回家，直到下一個轉會窗口開啟。

Oh, and I also forgot.

哦，我還忘了。

You also need to consider that even Mawr additional rocket ships will be required to perform all of the refueling required to.

你還需要考慮到，即使是毛爾額外的火箭艦也需要進行所有的加油，以。

So in order to reach the one million people goal.

所以為了達到一百萬人的目標。

It doesn't seem unreasonable to assume that something like 15 or 20,000 starships would be required over the 25 year time frame.

假設在25年的時間內需要15或20,000艘星艦，這似乎並不合理。

And I mean, that's just not super feasible.

我的意思是，這只是不超級可行的。

Even if you built to starships per week beginning today, that would only get you to a little over 3000 of them by 2050 which is obviously pretty short of the required amount.

即使從今天開始每週建造到星艦，到2050年也只能建造到3000多艘星艦，這顯然離要求的數量還很不夠。

And even further complicate matters is the actual cost of it all.

而更復雜的是，這一切的實際成本。

20,000 rockets, Even with them being reused, would easily reach into the trillions of dollars once accounting for development, material costs and fuel.

2萬枚火箭，即使是重複使用，一旦算上研製、材料成本和燃料，也會輕鬆達到上萬億美元。

Not to be a downer, but it just doesn't seem practical within the limited time frame given by 2050.

不是想讓大家失望，但在2050年給出的有限時間框架內，這似乎並不現實。

I mean, take another great human migration as a comparison shortly after discovering the New World, Europeans being migrating from the old world in droves.

我的意思是，以發現新大陸後不久的另一次人類大遷徙作為對比，歐洲人正從舊世界成群結隊地遷徙過來。

Yet it still took an incredibly long time just to reach the one million person mark after sailing for roughly 6 to 8 weeks in traversing something like 5500 kilometers of open ocean.

然而，僅僅是在航行了大約6到8周，穿越了大約5500公里的公海之後，還是花了非常長的時間才達到了100萬人的大關。

Depending on the start and end points, it could be said that the European journey to and colonization of the Americas is very similar, Although not exactly known.

根據起點和終點的不同，可以說歐洲人到美洲的旅程和美洲的殖民是非常相似的，雖然不完全知道。

When one million European migrants reached and settled in America, it very likely took a little over 200 years not happening until sometime in the early 18th century between 17 2017 30.

當100萬歐洲移民到達並定居在美國時，很有可能花了200多年的時間，直到18世紀初的某個時候才發生在17 2017年30。

So, in reality, expecting one million people to make a 33 million mile journey over the next 30 years does seem like a very tall order.

所以，在現實中，期望100萬人在未來30年內完成3300萬英里的旅程，確實是一個非常高的要求。

Indeed.

確實如此。

Regardless, though, Mars will likely be settled by some humans at some point in the very near future.

不過無論如何，火星很可能在不久的將來的某一天被一些人類定居。

Technology is certainly trending in that direction, and the motivation is there a swell.

技術肯定是朝著這個方向發展的，動力也是有一個膨脹。

But to expect a million people?

但要指望100萬人？

Well, I think we may have to wait until at least the end of the century, or even possibly a bit longer to see that one.

我想我們可能至少要等到本世紀末，甚至可能更久才能看到那部電影。

However, if you're wanting to learn a lot more about the dangers and challenges that humans will face while colonizing the Red Planet right now, one of the best ways to do so is by experiencing one of the best books ever written on the subject, called the Martian by Andy Weir.

然而，如果你現在想了解更多關於人類在殖民紅色星球時將面臨的危險和挑戰，最好的方法之一就是體驗一本有史以來最好的書，叫《火星人》，作者是安迪-威爾。

While it's obviously a fictional story, about an engineer who becomes stranded on the planet in the near future.

雖然這顯然是一個虛構的故事，講述的是一個工程師在不久的將來滯留在地球上的故事。

The story is expertly researched and grounded in real world logistics and technology issues that document the incredible, harsh reality of surviving on a hostile alien world and a delightfully you could get the entire audiobook that's narrated by Wil Wheaton for free right now on Audible.

這個故事經過專業的研究，立足於現實世界的物流和技術問題，記錄了在一個充滿敵意的外星世界上生存的令人難以置信的、殘酷的現實，令人欣喜的是，你現在就可以在Audible上免費獲得由威爾-惠頓敘述的整個有聲讀物。

I'm sure you've probably heard all about audible by now, but I have been inaudible member for years now because they keep expanding their selection in fantastic new ways.

我相信你現在可能已經聽說了所有關於audible的事情，但我現在已經是inaudible的會員多年了，因為他們不斷擴大他們的選擇，以奇妙的新方式。

There are, of course, thousands of audio books for you to select from, but that's really just the tip of the iceberg.

當然，還有成千上萬的有聲讀物供你選擇，但這其實只是冰山一角。

With their newly rolled out audible plus membership, you'll get access to thousands more originals and podcasts so you can go from a sci fi novel like the Martian to a true crime podcast into a biography.

通過他們新推出的audible plus會員制，你可以獲得更多的數千部原著和播客，這樣你就可以從《火星人》這樣的科幻小說到真實犯罪播客再到傳記。

And from there to countless other titles, I listen to audible content nearly every day while I'm cooking, driving, studying or even just falling asleep to something that sounds nice and you can, too.

而從那裡到其他無數的書目，我幾乎每天都會在做飯、開車、學習甚至只是睡著的時候聽一些聽起來很好聽的內容，你也可以。

But best of all, like I mentioned previously, you could get any audio book you want out of their thousands of titles completely for free and get a 30 day free trial as well by going toe audible dot com slash real life floor or by texting real life floor to 505 100.

但最重要的是，就像我之前提到的，你可以從他們的數千種書目中完全免費獲得任何你想要的有聲讀物，並獲得30天的免費試用，以及通過去趾audible點com斜線真人樓或通過簡訊真人樓到505 100。

You can get something really cool for free and you get a support real life floor at the same time.

你可以免費得到一些非常酷的東西，同時你還可以得到一個支持真人的地板。

And as always, thank you so much for watching.

並一如既往地感謝您的觀看。