First things first infections on death today is, Kirstie was saying was bleak.

今天第一件事第一感染上死亡是，Kirstie是說是淒涼的。

Record breaking on both counts.

在這兩方面都打破了記錄。

Take a look at this.

看看這個。

Uh, this new cases and new deaths throughout the UK cases you can see climbed to a new record high at 68,000 and 53 the weekly average for cases up 30%.

呃，這個新的案例和新的死亡 整個英國的案例，你可以看到攀升到一個新的歷史高點 68,000和53每週平均案例上升30％。

Go back just a few three weeks.

回去只需三個星期。

As you can see that it's climb so rapidly on they've risen 92% so they have nearly doubled in that time.

你可以看到，它的攀升如此之快，他們已經上升了92％，所以他們已經在這段時間內幾乎翻了一番。

Deaths as well concede on this graph here also reached a new high today, over 1300 dying within 28 days off a positive test.

死亡人數以及讓步這張圖上的死亡人數今天也創下了新高，超過1300人在28天內死於陽性測試之外。

Some of that that's a little bit of catching up over record keeping from the holidays.

有的那是在假期的記錄上有點追悔莫及。

But the trend The red line you can see here unmistakably climbing ever higher.

但趨勢 你可以看到這裡的紅線毫不含糊地不斷攀升。

Let's look a hospitalization to in every nation of the UK You can see here on England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland a number of covert patients in hospital in each different nation.

讓我們來看看在英國每個國家的住院情況 你可以在這裡看到英格蘭、蘇格蘭、威爾士和北愛爾蘭每個不同的國家都有一些隱蔽的病人在醫院。

There are now Mawr or very nearly Mork overt patients in hospitals in every nation than there were at the April Peak, England, 49% more than the English April Peak.

現在每個國家的醫院裡都有莫爾或非常近莫克超標的病人，比英國4月峰時多49%。

You can see way above their Scotland.

你可以看到他們蘇格蘭的上空。

They're the only ones just under their April peak, but only buys.

他們是唯一一個剛剛低於4月高峰期的人，但只買。

You can see a couple off percent, and you can see whales down here has more than double the number of patients in hospital with Kobe than they had their April peak on Northern Ireland.

你可以看到幾個關閉的百分比，你可以看到鯨魚下來這裡有超過一倍的病人在醫院與神戶比他們有他們的四月高峰期在北愛爾蘭。

While they've got 69% more covert patients and they had at their April peak, but it's dipping a little bit.

雖然他們已經得到了69%更多的祕密患者，他們在4月份的高峰期，但它的下降一點點。

The worst picture of although is in London, not only in hospital numbers, but infection.

雖然最糟糕的情況是在倫敦，不僅是醫院的數量，還有感染。

Two.

兩個人

This is regional positivity rate and the percentage of people in each region of England which are testing positive.

這是地區的陽性率和英格蘭各地區檢測呈陽性的人口比例。

There's some evidence it's dipping a little bit in London, but the data we got today shows that it's still way out in front of the rest of the population.

有一些證據表明，倫敦的氣溫下降了一點，但我們今天得到的數據顯示，它仍然遙遙領先於其他人口。

3% of the population testing positive, one in 30.

3%的人檢測陽性，每30人中就有一人。

But in some areas of London, like barking and Dagenham, that's over 6% or one inches.

但在倫敦的一些地區，如Barking和Dagenham，這超過6％或1英寸。

15 people testing positive for the virus in that part of London.

在倫敦的那個地區，有15人對病毒檢測呈陽性。

All of this is why a major incident was declared in the capital today on why hospitals really are at their limit on Don't let anyone tell you otherwise.

這些都是今天京城宣佈發生重大事件的原因，為什麼醫院真的已經到了極限不要讓別人告訴你。

If you look at London, there's some parts where you could already be quite worried that the service isn't coping.

如果你看看倫敦，有些地方你可能已經很擔心服務應付不過來了。

You know, there are pockets where operations that would never be canceled.

你知道，有一些口袋裡的操作，永遠不會被取消。

Even at the height of the worst winter, you would never see operations for some cancers where every today means the worst kind of 1000 for a patient already being canceled.

即使在最嚴重的冬天，你也不會看到一些癌症的手術，每一個今天都意味著最壞的那種1000的病人已經被取消。

You wouldn't see clinical staff in critical care units being asked care for the number of patients that they're being asked to care for at the moment.

你不會看到重症監護室的臨床醫護人員被要求照顧目前被要求照顧的病人數量。

So you already seen pockets of extreme crash in London that are only going to spread.

所以，你已經看到了倫敦的極度崩潰的口袋，只會蔓延。

I remember we haven't even seen the full impact of Christmas yet.

我記得我們甚至還沒有看到聖誕節的全部影響呢。

That's to come on.

那是要來的。

The worrying thing about all of this as well, is that we have some evidence that the policy mechanism to deal with this the lock down might not be quite as effective as it waas.

令人擔憂的是，我們有一些證據表明，應對這種鎖定的政策機制可能並不像以前那樣有效。

Previously, for example, this is some data that the transport for London has given use night Today compares tube use in the first week off the first lock down that's in the red part of the graph.

此前，例如，這是倫敦交通局給出的一些數據，使用夜 今天比較了地鐵使用在第一週關閉的第一個鎖定，這是在圖中的紅色部分。

You can see there compared to the blue part of the graph, which is this week to abuse.

你可以看到有相比圖中藍色的部分，這是本週要濫用。

This week you can see to take yesterday.

本週你可以看到拿昨天。

This week there were 1.19 million tube journeys made yesterday the equivalent day in the equivalent Motte locked down in March, there was only about half a million, so big increase.

本週有119萬人次的管行程昨天同等日在同等莫特鎖定在3月份，只有50萬左右，所以大增。

Likewise, this data looks a bit more complicated.

同樣，這個數據看起來也比較複雜。

Also provided Thio Newsnight to survey of 6000 teachers.

還提供了Thio新聞之夜對6000名教師的調查。

Well, it shows, is the dramatic difference in school attendance in January this year.

嗯，這說明，是今年1月份的入學率的巨大差異。

This lock down to March last year Again, The red part of the graph is the lock down.

這個鎖定到去年3月又是，圖中紅色部分是鎖定。

Last year.

去年。

You can see all of the attendances bunch towards the early part.

你可以看到所有的出席者群向早期部分。

Off this graph tiny numbers either very few students appearing in school at all or between as you can see there one and 5% this time much mawr up this part of the graph.

這張圖上的數字很小，要麼是很少有學生出現在學校裡，要麼是介於你可以看到的1和5%之間，這次是在圖的這一部分。

One in five schools are seeing 20 to 30% of their kids come through the door, some down here seeing more than half.

五分之一的學校看到20到30%的孩子進門，有的學校下來看到一半以上。

And if the old measures aren't working as well as they did before, there's a worry that if they don't fall significantly, then there aren't that many more levers left to pull.

而如果老措施的效果沒有以前好，就會擔心如果不大幅下降，那麼就沒有那麼多的槓桿可以拉了。

You can have an effect on it on block down definitely will have an effect on it.

你能對它有影響就擋下來肯定會對它有影響。

But we need to do more than just make it plateau out because of the moment, you know, clattering out of the same levels as it's already at would mean that we carry on with over 1000 deaths today.

但是，我們需要做的不僅僅是讓它平緩下來，因為現在，你知道，嘩啦啦地走出同樣的水準，因為它已經在將意味著我們繼續與超過1000人的死亡今天。

Andi can't do that, so we do need to decrease it on.

安迪做不到這一點，所以我們確實需要減少上。

That is the real challenge here to bring down significantly bring down prevalence of the virus and to do it soon in their darkest moments.

這是真正的挑戰，在這裡，使下來顯著降低病毒的流行，並在他們最黑暗的時刻，儘快做到這一點。

Right now, epidemiologists are concerned that the combination of the new variant locked down fatigue and the ubiquity of the virus means that that might not happen with all the consequences for our health service.

現在，流行病學家擔心，新變種鎖定疲勞和病毒的普遍性相結合，意味著這可能不會發生對我們的醫療服務的所有後果。

They're in custody.

他們被拘留了

Lewis.

劉易斯

Thanks very much.

謝謝你

We're in a moment.

我們正處於一個時刻。

We'll speak to Professor Susan Mickey, who sits on stage and is director of the Center for Behavioral Change at University College London, and Dr Dan Poulter, conservative MP and psychiatrist who still works in the NHS as a mental health doctor.

我們將與坐在舞臺上的蘇珊-米奇教授交談，他是倫敦大學學院行為變化中心的主任，以及丹-普爾特博士，保守派國會議員和精神病學家，他仍然作為心理健康醫生在NHS工作。

But first we're going to hear from Rupert Pearce and I see you consultant working at a major London hospital, a good evening to all of you.

但首先我們將聽到魯珀特-皮爾斯的聲音，我看到你的顧問在倫敦一家大醫院工作，大家晚上好。

But first of all, Rupert Pearce, um, you are seeing the impact on your hospital daily.

但首先，Rupert Pearce，嗯，你每天都能看到對你的醫院的影響。

How much worse do you think it's going to get?

你覺得情況會變得多糟糕？

We don't know.

我們不知道。

We're very worried about how much worse that's going to get.

我們非常擔心情況會變得更糟糕。

You talked a lot about the first wave in your peak.

你在巔峰期談了很多關於第一波。

It's worth noting the peak of admissions in the first wave occurred within a couple of three weeks.

值得注意的是，第一波的錄取高峰出現在幾三週內。

Maybe on was down to quite low levels by four or five weeks.

也許在四、五週前就已經降到了相當低的水準。

This wave has been going for more than eight weeks, and we still haven't reached the peak.

這一波已經持續了8個多星期，我們仍然沒有達到高峰。

So that's really the main reason why we're seeing such vast numbers of patients in hospital Onda.

所以這才是我們在昂達醫院看到這麼多病人的主要原因。

The services on the ground there really tremendously stretched.

那裡的地面服務真的是巨大的延伸。

Can you see a difference in terms of the patients coming?

你能看到來的病人有什麼不同嗎？

Onda deterioration of the condition.

Onda惡化的狀況。

It's hard on the ground to see a epidemiological patterns in the types of patients who come in.

在地面上很難看到前來就診的患者類型的流行病學規律。

I think that one of the important messages there's this appears to be a disease of all adults ages.

我認為其中一個重要的資訊是... ...這似乎是所有成年人的疾病。

We're seeing patients in their twenties, thirties, forties fifties as well as older patients as well on the idea that this may not affect you because you're too healthy is really a fallacy.

我們看到二十多歲、三十多歲、四十多歲五十多歲的病人，以及老年病人也有這種想法，認為這可能不會影響你，因為你太健康了，其實是一種謬論。

And in terms of the staff and your I see you, you're seeing people coming for volunteering.

而在工作人員和你的我看你方面，你看到有人來做志願服務。

Untrained people coming in to help because you need them.

未經培訓的人進來幫忙，因為你需要他們。

Yes, so we would normally run very strictly with one trained, intensive care nurse per each patient.

是的，所以我們通常會嚴格按照每個病人配備一名受過訓練的特護護士來管理。

We've had to dilute that down as far as one nurse to three patients or even one nurse to four.

我們不得不將其稀釋到一個護士對三個病人，甚至一個護士對四個病人。

We have to back fill that space with trained nurses from other areas who aren't intensive care experts, medical students.

我們必須用其他領域的訓練有素的護士來填補這個空間，他們不是重症監護專家，是醫學生。

And this weekend, when I was working, even consultant colleagues had to step in tow.

而這個週末，我在工作的時候，連顧問同事都要出面拖。

Workers work alongside our nursing colleagues.

工人與我們的護理同事一起工作。

Sorry to interrupt.

對不起，打擾了。

You haven't spoken out much before, but you've decided to speak out now.

你以前沒怎麼說過話，但你現在決定說出來了。

Why do you think this is so critical now?

你覺得現在為什麼這麼關鍵？

Well, I'm very worried that we've reached the peak on.

好吧，我很擔心我們已經達到了頂峰。

We're really not seeing the kind of behavior that we saw in the first wave on I.

我們真的沒有看到第一波在I上看到的那種行為。

And many of my colleagues and medicine are extremely worried that the peak that this served wave is just going to carry on rising and rising thing that will reach a point where the NHS simply won't be able to cope with it on were particularly worried about opinion leaders chipping away of public confidence in the lock down measures.

我的許多同事和醫學都非常擔心，這個服務波的峰值只是要進行上升和上升的東西，將達到一個點，NHS根本無法應付它上特別擔心意見領袖削去鎖定措施的公眾信心。

In the public health measures that we've introduced to try and control the problem on personally, I find it particularly frustrating as a doctor to see MPs questioning the logic of a public health measures when maybe their local hospital in their constituency is full to bursting with.

在我們推出的公共衛生措施中，我們試圖控制個人的問題，作為一名醫生，我發現特別令人沮喪的是，看到國會議員質疑公共衛生措施的邏輯，當他們的選區的當地醫院可能已經爆滿。

Thank you very much, Professor, because I need to turn right now to Dan Pooter and Susan Mickey Dan Porter just picking up on that.

非常感謝你，教授，因為我現在需要轉到丹-普特和蘇珊-米奇-丹-波特身上，他們正在接手。

What Professor Pierce has described is actually very grieve and indeed frightening it is in the situation.

皮爾斯教授所描述的，其實是非常悲痛的，也確實是可怕的，它是在這種情況下。

The front line is really tough at the moment, particularly in London, but in many other parts of the country as well in the Southeast, in the east of England.

目前，前線真的很艱難，尤其是在倫敦，但在英國東南部、英格蘭東部的許多其他地區也是如此。

What was unusual today was the fact that the NHS we're accustomed to sometimes diverting people from a very busy hospital where there's a major incident.

今天不尋常的是，NHS我們習慣於有時把人從一個非常繁忙的醫院分流到有重大事故的地方。

But a major incident was declared across all of London's hospitals and the situation, unfortunately, is going to get worse before it gets better.

但是，倫敦所有的醫院都宣佈發生了重大事件，不幸的是，情況在好轉之前，會變得更糟。

Eso It's a really difficult situation.

埃索 這真是個困難的局面。

It's something the first time.

這是第一次的東西。

I think in my time working in the NHS that I've been genuinely concerned about how we're going to manage to continue to care for our patients in the way that we'd like to, because we are very near to being over world.

我想在我在NHS工作的時間裡，我已經真正關心我們如何管理繼續照顧我們的病人的方式，我們希望，因為我們非常接近被超過世界。

You're new to being overwhelmed.

你是新來的，不知所措。

So does something have to happen very quickly in terms of adjusting the lock down?

那麼，在調整鎖定方面，是否要非常迅速地發生一些事情呢？

Well, certainly if you look at the natures of in place now compared to lock down in March Onda, we weren't dealing with the mutant strain which is more easily transmissible.

好吧，當然，如果你看看現在的性質 在地方相比，鎖定在三月Onda， 我們不處理與突變株 這是更容易傳播。

Back in March, there were it was a stricter locked down in March and they're they're more relaxed rules about child care.

早在3月份，有它是一個更嚴格的鎖定在3月，他們是他們更寬鬆的規則，關於兒童護理。

Well, let me bring in Susan Mickey on that.

好吧，讓我把蘇珊-米奇請來。

Do you think the rules need to change or people need to comply with the rules who are not complying now, perhaps because they're just exhausted and actually find it incredibly difficult financially and indeed mentally well, the evidence shows that people are adhering to the rules Justus, much as they were back in June in the summertime.

你認為規則需要改變，還是人們需要遵守規則，現在不遵守規則的人，也許是因為他們只是精疲力竭，實際上發現經濟上和事實上精神上都非常困難，證據表明，人們正在遵守規則，賈斯德斯，就像他們在6月的夏季一樣。

But what we are seeing is many people out and about as we've heard earlier in the program.

但我們看到的是許多人外出活動，正如我們在節目中早些時候聽到的那樣。

But if you think about the much more lack locked down we have this time, it's not surprising we have mass gatherings in terms of nurseries and religious events.

但如果你想想我們這次鎖定的更多的缺乏，我們在幼兒園和宗教活動方面有大規模的聚會也就不足為奇了。

We have household contact with cleaners, trace people, nannies going in the night of houses.

我們家家戶戶都有接觸清潔工、痕跡人、保姆去的房子晚上。

We have a very wide definition of critical work, and that s so we've heard that, you know, up to 30% of classes.

我們對關鍵性工作的定義非常寬泛，所以我們聽說，你知道，多達30%的班級。

So people still going into schools all of that means much busier public transport on you Put all of that together on it means that we're getting really mixed messages.

是以，人們仍然進入學校 所有這一切都意味著更繁忙的公共交通 你把所有這些放在一起，這意味著我們得到真正的混合資訊。

On the one hand, the government saying we're locking down, stay at home.

一方面，政府說我們要鎖定，呆在家裡。

But on the other hand, there saying Go out and dual these jobs on If you think that compared to march, we now in colder weather, so the virus survives longer.

但另一方面，有說出去和雙這些工作上如果你認為相比三月，我們現在在寒冷的天氣，所以病毒存活時間更長。

Plus, people spend much more time indoors, where they're more at risk of aerosol transmission.

另外，人們在室內呆的時間更多，在這裡他們更容易受到氣溶膠的傳播。

On we have a variant that somewhere between 50 and 70% more infectious, we should be having a strict a lot of time.

在我們有一個變種，介於50和70%之間的更多的傳染性，我們應該有一個嚴格的很多時間。

We've got relax lock time.

我們已經得到了放鬆鎖定時間。

Well, Dan Poulter, you know, we heard from first appears that there's a danger of the NHS being overwhelmed and given with Susan.

好吧，丹-普爾特，你知道，我們聽到的第一個出現的NHS被壓倒的危險和蘇珊。

Micky's said on that.

米奇的說上。

In fact, at Christmas there were very rapid changes to the Christmas get together rules.

事實上，在聖誕節的時候，聖誕節的聚餐規則變化非常快。

These rules are not designed to be revisited for another fortnight.

這些規則不打算在另外兩個星期內重新審視。

But do you think in the light of what both practitioners air saying And indeed people like you are seeing her both a politician and a doctor, that the government actually needs to make an adjustment now to stop the NHS being overwhelmed?

但你認為根據這兩個從業者的說法，事實上像你這樣的人看到她既是政治家又是醫生，政府實際上需要做出調整，以阻止NHS不堪重負？

Yes, I do.

是的，我有。

And we need to look at things like, for example, rules on just, for example, mass congregations.

而我們需要研究的東西，比如說，關於只是，比如說，民眾聚會的規則。

The worship those things have got to be looked at also got well, if it was down to me, yes, I would stop it.

崇拜那些東西得看也得好，如果是我，是的，我會阻止它。

And we also need to look at you know the way the this much greater is wider definition of key worker that's been put in place in terms of schooling.

我們還需要看看你知道的方式，這更大的是更廣泛的定義的關鍵工人，已在學校教育的地方。

And we've also got to look at possibly some of these issues around.

而且我們還得看看周圍可能存在的一些問題。

Support bubbles on DFAT M'lee bubbles because the risk is with one in three people being effectively asymptomatic for having the virus.

DFAT M'lee氣泡上的支持氣泡，因為風險是與三分之一的人是有效的無症狀的有病毒。

But not knowing they're dotted.

卻不知道他們是點點滴滴。

You could well be mixing in a family bubble on defecting people who you care and you love and care about.

你很可能在投奔你關心的人和你愛護的人上混入家庭保麗龍。

And that's something that's happening every day at the moment.

而這是目前每天都在發生的事情。

And we need to look at this on day Takes him that I think more urgent action because, you know, the worst thing that we could see is a situation where it gets the point where the NHS it is systemically not just in one or two hospitals, but systemically unable to cope for a prolonged period of time.

我們需要看看這一天 帶他，我認為更多的緊急行動，因為，你知道，最糟糕的事情，我們可以看到的情況下，它得到的點，NHS它是系統性的，不只是在一個或兩個醫院，但系統性的無法應付很長一段時間。

And that's what we are a moment facing.

而這也是我們一時面臨的問題。

So it's not.

所以這不是。

We need to revisit on these measures put in place tougher measures.

我們有必要重新審視這些措施，制定更嚴厲的措施。

They're difficult, but it's about saving lives on bits, about making sure that the NHS is there for those who are really sick.

他們是困難的，但它是關於拯救生命的位，關於確保NHS是為那些誰是真正的病人。

But we know that some people are desperate because they just do not have enough money to Corp despite measures being Putin place.

但我們知道，有些人是絕望的，因為他們只是沒有足夠的錢來公司，儘管措施是普京地方。

So the government presumably would have to move very quickly in a short term way toe to fill that gap.

所以，政府大概要在短期內迅速行動起來，以趾高氣揚的方式來填補這個缺口。

If they want people.

如果他們想要人。

If they're desperately keen that people do not leave their homes, absolutely.

如果他們極力希望人們不要離開自己的家園，絕對可以。

You know, one thing that I part of a group of MPs on the part of parliamentary group on coronavirus.

你知道，有一件事，我是議會冠狀病毒小組的議員之一。

We have specifically made recommendations to governments that exactly that that we need to find ways of better supporting people who will find it very economically tough, hard not to be at work.

我們專門向各國政府提出建議，正是我們需要找到更好的方法來支持那些會發現經濟上非常困難、很難不工作的人。

And that's an important part of this package.

而這也是這套方案的重要組成部分。

So but I hope to hear from is Cem Cem or from the Chancellor next week tucked coupled with some titan of some further tightening of the measures that we already have in place because you know, the economics have got to go hand in hand with the health care restrictions because that's very important on Susan.

所以，但我希望聽到從是Cem Cem或從總理下週掖加上一些泰坦的一些進一步收緊的措施，我們已經到位，因為你知道，經濟必須與醫療保健限制攜手，因為這是非常重要的蘇珊。

This is making from your point of view, people presumably realized just how dangerous this new variant is.

這是使從你的角度看，人們大概意識到這種新的變體有多危險。

Do you think if they were asked to make a bigger sacrifice within the next two weeks that they would do it well, that's the history of the pandemic.

你覺得如果讓他們在接下來的兩週內做出更大的犧牲，他們會做好嗎，這就是疫情的歷史。

When people see that there's a really big threat on that, what they could do could make a difference on.

當人們看到這上面有一個非常大的威脅時，他們所能做的事情就會有所改變。

They have the support to make that difference.

他們有支持來實現這種改變。

They will do it.

他們會這麼做的。

But we mustn't forget that one of the most important things is keeping those people who are infected or might be affected away from the rest of the population, which was the whole purpose of test trace and isolate.

但我們不能忘記，其中最重要的是讓那些被感染或可能受影響的人遠離其他人群，這也是檢測追蹤和隔離的全部目的。