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成為第一批加入Brilliant的人，可以享受20%的折扣，開始直觀的學習。

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點擊描述中的鏈接，200人報名。

So at some point during your life, you've probably experienced something that you would describe as unlikely.

所以在你生命中的某個時刻，你可能經歷過一些你會形容為不可能的事情。

But what are some of the most unlikely things that could happen to you during your life.

但在你的一生中，有哪些最不可能發生的事情。

To start with something more easy to visualize,

要從更容易直觀的東西入手。

imagine walking into a room with 30 random people.

想象一下，走進一個房間與30個隨機的人。

There is a 1 in 12 chance that you would share the same birthday with somebody else in that room, which seems unlikely

有1/12的機會，你會分享相同的生日 與別人在那個房間，這似乎不太可能。

but it's almost infinitely more likely than some other future probabilities later in this video.

但比起這段視頻後面的其他一些未來的概率，幾乎是無限大的。

If you apply to Harvard,

如果你申請哈佛大學。

you only have a 1 in 20 chance of getting accepted.

你只有1/20的機會得到接受。

But that's still more likely than taking a pair of dice and rolling a snake eyes,

但這還是比拿一對骰子擲蛇眼的可能性大。

which is only a 1 in 36 chance. To get a little more unlikely,

也就是36分之一的概率。要想更不可能。

you have only about a 1 in 100 chance of developing a brain tumor during your life

在你的一生中，你只有大約1/100的機率患上腦瘤

and a 1 in 102 chance of getting killed in an automobile accident if you live in the US.

和1/102的機會得到死亡 在汽車事故中，如果你住在美國。

Medically speaking,

從醫學上講。

You had a 1 in 500 chance of being born with 11 fingers or toes,

你有1/500的機會出生時有11個手指或腳趾。

which is still more likely than a high school hockey player ever going pro,

這還是比一個高中冰球運動員成為職業球員的可能性更大。

which is only 1 in 598.

這只是598分之一。

In fact,

事實上

It's very unlikely that any random high school athlete will ever make it to the pros.

隨便一個高中運動員都不太可能進入職業賽場。

With baseball being 1 in 659,

與棒球是1的659。

Football at 1 in 4233

足球在4233年1

Soccer at 1 in 5768,

足球在5768年的1。

and most challenging of all is Basketball at 1 in 11771.

而最具挑戰性的是籃球，為11771分之一。

To throw some more numbers in there to see how unlikely these statistics really are,

再拋出一些數字，看看這些數據到底有多不可能。

the odds of you correctly guessing a four-digit pin code are 1 in 10000 *Check his pinned comment* and the odds of you bowling a

你正確猜中四位數密碼的機率是萬分之一 *查看他的評論 *而你打保齡球的機率是

perfect 300 point game are 1 in 11,500.

完美的300分遊戲是11500分之一。

But all of these are more likely than you getting struck by lightning,

但這些都比你被雷擊的可能性大。

which you have a 1 in 12,000 lifetime chance of happening to you in the US.

在美國，你一生中只有1.2萬分之一的機會發生在你身上。

If your skills at golfer are average,

如果你的球技一般。

then you have a roughly 1 in 12,500 chance of hitting a hole-in-one at the golf course,

那麼你在高爾夫球場打出一桿進洞的機會大概有1.25萬分之一。

which is still much more likely than you getting murdered in U.S,

這還是比你在美國被謀殺的可能性大得多。

which you only have a 1 in 18,000 chance of per year.

你每年只有1.8萬分之一的機會。

We're starting to get into the pretty unlikely events now,

我們現在開始進入很不可能的事件了。

so with that being said,

所以，隨著說。

you only have a 1 in 54,000 chance of dying from a bee sting,

你只有1在54,000機會 死於蜜蜂蜇傷。

the odds of you dating a supermodel are unfortunately only 1 in 88,000

和超模約會的機率不幸只有88000分之一

and the odds of you becoming the CEO of a Fortune 500 company are based on what degree you hold.

而你成為財富500強企業CEO的機率，是根據你持有什麼學位來決定的。

MBAs have a 1 in 135,000 chance,

MBA有13.5萬分之一的機會。

engineers have a 1 in 164,000 chance,

工程師有16萬4千分之一的機會。

and lawyers have only a 1 in 386,000 chance,

而律師只有386,000分之一的機會。

which is less likely than you getting killed in a firework accident at

這比你在煙花事故中喪生的可能性要小得多。

1 in 340,000.

34萬分之一；

The next time you're playing poker, you should know that the odds of you being dealt a Royal Flush

下一次你玩牌的時候，你應該知道，你被髮同花順的機率是多少？

are just 1 in 649,740

僅為649,740人中的1人

which is only slightly more probable than their risk of the asteroid,

這隻比他們的小行星風險略高。

2017 YZ1, impacting Earth on June 30th, 2047,

2017年YZ1，2047年6月30日撞擊地球。

which is a 1 in 670,000 chance.

這是67萬分之一的機會。

Let's fast forward ahead to the very unlikely events that probably won't ever happen to you or anybody else that you know.

讓我們快步向前走，看看那些很可能不會發生在你或你認識的其他人身上的不可能事件。

The odds of you getting killed by a terrorist in the US are just 1 in 4,000,000

你在美國被恐怖分子殺害的機率只有四百萬分之一

and the risk of you getting eaten by a shark are even lower at just 1 in 8,000,000.

而你被鯊魚吃掉的風險更低，只有八百萬分之一。

You have a kind of surprising 1 in 10,000,000 chance of becoming the President of the United States if you're a US citizen,

如果你是美國公民，你有一種驚人的萬分之一的機會成為美國總統。

which is even more likely than you dying in a commercial plane crash at the very very low odds of only 1 in 11,000,000.

這甚至比你死於商業飛機失事的機率還要低，只有11,000,000分之一。

But we can keep going to even more ludicrously unlikely events,

但我們可以繼續去看更多令人啼笑皆非的事件。

like your risk of getting killed by an asteroid impact

就像你被小行星撞擊致死的風險一樣。

at just 1 in 74,817,000.

僅為74,817,000分之一。

So you're literally more likely to get hit by an asteroid and die than you are to win the jackpot of the Powerball lottery,

所以，你被小行星撞死的可能性比你中強力球彩票大獎的可能性更大。

where the odds are a staggering

勝算極大

1 in 175,000,000.

1/175,000,000。

Back in 2016, the Powerball jackpot reached 1.6 billion dollars

早在2016年，"強力球 "頭獎就達到了16億美元。

and you stood a better chance of winning that

而你的勝算更大

than you ever would have at winning the comparatively small

比你贏取相對較小的獎金更有優勢

1,000,000 dollar Grand Prize of the McDonald's Monopoly game

麥當勞大富翁遊戲100萬元大獎

at just 1 in 451,000,000!

僅為451,000,000分之一！

But even still, there are people that these statistically unlikely events actually have happened to,

但即便如此，這些統計學上不可能發生的事件，還是有一些人真的發生過。

but the next events are so unlikely that they may never happen to anybody in history

但接下來發生的事情是如此的不可能，以至於可能永遠不會發生在歷史上的任何人身上。

like picking a perfect NCAA bracket

就像挑選一個完美的NCAA支架

at a chance of just 1 in 128 billion.

在1280億分之一的機會。

NASA claims that the odds of you getting killed by a falling satellite are just 1 in 21 trillion

美國宇航局聲稱，你被墜落的衛星砸死的機率只有21萬億分之一

And if you haven't studied for that test coming up in a few days,

如果你還沒有為幾天後的考試做準備，

you should know that the odds of you passing a 100 question multiple choice exam by guessing on every question

你應該知道，你通過100道選擇題的考試，每道題都猜中的機率很大

are only 1 in 750 trillion.

只有750萬億分之一。

But the most unlikely thing that I'll be talking about in this video that could happen to you seems pretty mundane at first;

但是，我在這個視頻中要講的最不可能發生在你身上的事情，乍一看似乎很平凡。

Shuffling the same deck of 52 cards and getting the same order of cards twice.

洗牌同一副52張牌，兩次得到相同的牌序。

The odds of you doing this are roughly

你這樣做的機率大概是... ...

1 in 80 unvigintillion,

八十萬分之一的活力。

or 1 in 8.0658*10^67.

或1/8.0658*10^67。

or 8 with 67 zeros written in front of it.

或8前面寫著67個0。

There are more ways to arrange a deck of cards than there are atoms on Earth

一副牌的排列方式比地球上的原子還要多。

Which means that every time you've shuffled a deck , it's very likely that

這意味著每次你洗牌的時候，很有可能是

exact order of cards has never before been seen in human history and likely never will be again.

準確的牌序在人類歷史上從來沒有出現過，很可能以後也不會出現。

But the best way that anybody has ever described this, in my opinion,

但在我看來，這是所有人描述過的最好的方式。

was a user called Leofric on a Reddit thread that I've linked in the description.

是一個叫Leofric的用戶在Reddit上的帖子，我已經在描述中鏈接了。

His quote roughly reads as follows:

他的引述大致如下：

8.0658*10^67. is such an enormous number

8.0658*10^67.是一個巨大的數字。

Imagine that you set a timer for that many seconds.

想象一下，你設置了一個定時器那麼多秒。

Stand on the equator,

站在赤道上。

and take a step forward every 1 billion years

每十億年前進一步

When you've circled the entire Earth once,

當你繞著整個地球轉了一圈。

take a drop of water out of the Pacific Ocean and repeat.

從太平洋中取出一滴水，重複。

When the Pacific Ocean is empty,

當太平洋空無一人時。

lay a sheet of paper down,

鋪一張紙下來。

refill the Pacific, and repeat.

加滿太平洋，然後重複。

When your stack of paper reaches the Sun,

當你的一疊紙到達太陽。

look at your timer.

看看你的計時器。

It seems to have barely changed.

似乎幾乎沒有什麼變化。

You started with 8.0658*10^67 seconds

你從8.0658*10^67秒開始。

and now you STILL have 8.0630*10^67 seconds still remaining.

現在你還剩下8.0630*10^67秒。

To kill the time further,

為了進一步消磨時間。

you start doing something else.

你開始做別的事情。

Shuffle a deck of cards and deal yourself five cards every billion years.

洗牌一副牌，每隔十億年給自己發五張牌。

Each time you get a royal flush,

每一次你都會得到一個同花順。

buy yourself a lottery ticket.

給自己買張彩票。

Each time that ticket hits a jackpot

每次該票中獎

throw a grain of sand into the Grand Canyon.

往大峽谷裡扔一粒沙子。

When the Grand Canyon is full,

當大峽谷滿。

take one ounce of rock from Mount Everest,

從珠穆朗瑪峰上取一盎司的岩石。

empty the Grand Canyon, and start the process all over again.

清空大峽谷，並重新開始這個過程。

When Everest has been completely removed from the map,

當珠穆朗瑪峰已經完全從地圖上移走。

check the timer again.

再次檢查定時器。

There is STILL barely any change.

幾乎沒有任何變化。

It's now at 5.364*10^67 seconds remaining.

現在還剩5.364*10^67秒。

You would have to repeat this entire, enormous process

你必須重複這整個巨大的過程。

256 times to run out the timer to zero.

256次用完定時器歸零。

The reason this is so complicated is because of a mathematical principle called Factorials.

之所以這麼複雜，是因為有一個數學原理叫因子。

You can figure out how many combinations at deck of 52 cards can be arranged into by multiplying

你可以計算出一副52張牌可以排列成多少種組合，乘以

52 by 51 by 50 by 49 and so on

52乘以51乘以50乘以49，依此類推。

until you get down to one

直到你得到一個

That's how you get a number as ridiculous as this.

所以才會有這麼荒唐的數字。

So the math that goes into figuring out something like this

所以，計算出這樣的東西的數學方法

is one of the most confusing things that I've ever

是我見過的最令人困惑的事情之一。

experienced in making videos for this channel

經驗豐富，為這個頻道製作視頻

But knowing probability can be extremely rewarding,

但知道概率後會有極大的收穫。

the next time you go to a casino, for example

例如，下次你去賭場的時候。

It would be good for you to know that playing blackjack

這將是對你有好處的知道，玩21點。

is where you're most likely to win any kind of money and your starting hand determines

是你最有可能贏得任何種類的錢的地方，而你的起手牌決定了。

what you should do based on probability.

根據概率，你應該做什麼。

If your hand starts with 12,

如果你的牌是12開頭的

you only have a 31% chance of busting on the next card.

你只有31%的機率在下一張牌上打爆。

But if you start with a 20,

但如果你從20歲開始。

you're ought to shoot up to 92 percent

你應該拍到92%。

and you can see everything else in between.

而你可以看到中間的其他一切。

I learned all of this and more

我學到了所有這些，還有更多

by taking the course on Games of Chance over at Brilliant.org,

在Brilliant.org上學習 "機會遊戲 "課程。

and you can quickly do the same.

而你也可以很快地做到這一點。

Numbers and math don't come easy to me naturally and they never have

數字和數學對我來說並不容易，而且從來都不容易。

and I'm sure many of you probably struggle with the same issue,

我相信你們中的很多人可能也在為同樣的問題而苦惱。

But Brilliant can help a lot with making you feel more confident.

但Brilliant可以幫你很多忙，讓你更自信。

Rather than simply telling you numbers and facts about games like Blackjack or Poker

而不是簡單地告訴你關於21點或撲克等遊戲的數字和事實。

and hoping you memorize them,

並希望你記住它們。

they start by teaching you the intuitive ideas behind the probability

他們首先教你概率背後的直觀想法。

that influences what happens.

影響了發生的事情。

By playing through their puzzles,

通過玩他們的拼圖。

you'll come to understand how Games of Chance actually work and Brilliant has tons of

你會了解到機會遊戲是如何實際運作的，而Brilliant有大量的。

other relevant courses to help you learn more about how our world really works,

其他相關課程，幫助你更多地瞭解我們的世界到底是如何運作的。

like probability, logic, computer science

如概率、邏輯、計算機科學

and so much more,

以及更多。

all of which similarly guide you along as you build up your core knowledge.

所有這些都同樣引導著你在積累核心知識的過程中不斷前進。

You can take as many of these incredibly design courses as you want

你可以選擇這些令人難以置信的設計課程，只要你願意。

with their premium subscription and which by being one of the first

的高級訂閱，併成為首批

200 people to sign up by clicking the link in the description

點擊描述中的鏈接，200人報名。

you can get for 20% off.

你可以得到8折的價格。

Check out these other videos of RealLifeLore, get Brilliant, and subscribe. :)

查看RealLifeLore的其他視頻，獲取Brilliant，並訂閱：)