2021 to be the savior. 

2021年要做救世主。

Every worst possible scenario has happened this year, starting from a climate change

今年所有最壞的情況都發生了，從氣候變化開始。

disaster that killed over 500 million animals in Australia to a pandemic that shat down

從澳洲5億多隻動物死亡的災難，到一場大瘟疫，讓澳大利亞人的生活陷入困境。

the world to an election that was chaotic, to say the least.

亂的選舉，至少可以說是世界。

But not everything was as bad as it might seem.

但並不是所有的事情都像看起來那麼糟糕。

Despite the stock market crash at the beginning of the year, the market had one of the best

儘管年初股市大跌，但市場有一個最好的

years.

年。

Some companies just crashed it and grew faster than they did in an entire decade prior to

有的公司就這麼撞上了，而且增長速度比之前整整十年都要快。

that.

那。

It's not the end of the year, and amazon's stock price has almost doubled.

這不年底了，亞馬遜的股價幾乎翻了一番。

Elon Musk went from 20 billion dollars at the beginning of the year to over 100 billion

埃隆-馬斯克從年初的200億美金到現在的1000多億美金。

dollars.

美元。

In fact, we made an entire video about the list of people who became billionaires as

事實上，我們做了一個完整的視頻，關於那些成為億萬富翁的人的名單，作為。

a result of this pandemic.

這場大流行病的結果。

Whoever took advantage out of this year, hats of to them, but what we want to find out in

不管是誰在今年佔了便宜，都要向他們致敬，但我們想知道的是，在今年，我們要做的是

this video is how the stock market will perform next year?

這個視頻是明年股市的表現？

Which stocks will most probably rise, and which ones would fall?

哪些股票最有可能上漲，哪些股票會下跌？

And finally, will there be any Signifincant crash?

最後，會不會有什麼Signifincant崩潰？

This video is brought to you by Trends . In the middle of a global pandemic, how do you

本視頻由Trends .在全球大流行的情況下，你該如何

find entrepreneurs, investors, and ambitious people like you?

找到像你這樣的企業家、投資者和雄心勃勃的人？

That's what Trend is for.

這就是趨勢的作用。

The place where entrepreneurs go to network, find great ideas, and like-minded people to

創業者可以在這裡進行交流，找到好的想法和志同道合的人。

jumpstart their ideas.

啟動他們的想法。

Stay around until the end to learn more, or you can get your first seven days for just

留在這裡，直到最後瞭解更多，或者你可以得到你的前七天只需

ONE dollar.

一塊錢

Go to trends.co/proactivethinker for your ONE-DOLLAR, seven-day trial.

前往trends.co/proactivethinker獲取您的一美元七天試用版。

how the economic machine works 


經濟機器是如何運作的 
。

To understand how the economy is going to perform next year, we have to find out how

要了解明年的經濟表現如何，我們必須要弄清楚如何

the economy usually performs after a crisis.

經濟通常在危機後的表現。

You probably have heard that whatever rises will definitely fall.

你可能聽說過，凡是上漲的東西一定會下跌。

And that is the case with the economy.

而經濟的情況也是如此。

 The economy has four main stages, and it starts with expansion.

經濟有四個主要階段，首先是擴張。

It peaks somewhere at the top and plummets, which is also know as contraction, and once

它在某處達到頂峰，然後急劇下降，這也就是所謂的收縮，而一旦

it reaches the lowest point, it rises again.

到了最低點，它又會上升。

During the expansion period, the economy is booming.

在擴張期，經濟蓬勃發展。

The stock market is rising, and it seems like the growth will be forever.

股市在漲，似乎永遠都會有增長。

Interest rates are low, and Businesses are borrowing and expanding as fast as they can.

利率低，企業以最快的速度借貸和擴張。

Investors are throwing their money at the stock market, and everyone is happy.

投資者把錢投向股市，大家都很高興。

Unfortunately, it doesn't last forever.

不幸的是，它不會永遠持續下去。

At some point (peak), the central bank is going to say, "mmm, inflation is growing too

到了某個時間點（峰值），央行會說："嗯，通脹增長太厲害了

fast, let's slow it down."

快，讓我們慢下來。"

So the FED will increase interest rates to keep inflation under control.

所以FED會提高利率來控制通脹。

 The economy has reached its full potential; it stabilizes and grows just enough to cope

經濟已充分發揮其潛力；經濟的穩定和增長剛好足以應付。

with inflation.

隨著通貨膨脹。

But investors are used to extraordinary returns.

但投資者已經習慣了非凡的回報。

For instance, iPhone sales have been increasing since 2009, however in 2015, they slowed down

例如，自2009年以來，iPhone的銷量一直在增長，然而在2015年，iPhone的銷量卻放緩了速度

and stabilized since the economy wasn't growing fast enough.

並穩定下來，因為經濟增長不夠快。

That scares off investors, and some of them slowly start pulling out their money.

這就嚇跑了投資者，一些投資者慢慢開始撤資。

Businesses will do their best to maximize their sales to keep investors interested;

企業會盡最大的努力讓自己的銷售額最大化，讓投資者感興趣。

however, at some point, the supply will outweigh the demand.

然而，在某些時候，供大於求。

So businesses slow down, that pushes away investors, which slows down further the market,

所以企業放緩，就會推走投資者，從而進一步拖累市場。

but businesses have somehow to survive, so they will start cutting cost. 

但是，企業為了生存，就會開始降低成本。

First, by firing the least important employees, so unemployment starts rising, which means

首先，通過解僱最不重要的員工，所以失業率開始上升，這意味著

the demand starts falling in the market overall.

市場整體需求開始下降。

Businesses can't even take a loan since interest rates are too high since the fed increased

自從美聯儲加息後，企業連貸款都貸不到，因為利率太高。

them because inflation was too high. 

因為通貨膨脹率太高，他們。

That's how the economy slides into a recession (contraction).

這就是經濟滑入衰退（收縮）的原因。

People start to save since they are afraid and uncertain about the future, which means

人們因為對未來的恐懼和不確定而開始儲蓄，這意味著

the demand in the market falls even further, which means more businesses suffer, which

市場需求進一步下降，這意味著更多的企業受到影響，這

means more unemployment.

意味著更多的失業。

It's a never-ending cycle that will keep drugging the economy down.

這是一個永無止境的循環，會一直給經濟下藥。

Usually, the Fed intervenes by lowering interest rates to make borrowing money free to save

通常情況下，美聯儲會通過降低利率進行干預，讓借錢的人自由儲蓄

the economy from the recession.

衰退的經濟。

But it doesn't always work instantly, and the economy keeps declining.

但並不總是立竿見影，經濟不斷下滑。

At some point, the economy is going to reach its bottom line (depression).

在某些時候，經濟會達到底線（蕭條）。

People are afraid to borrow because the economy looks so bad that they don't seem to be able

人們不敢借錢，是因為經濟看起來太糟糕了，他們似乎沒有能力。

to pay it back.

來償還它。

In that case, the central banks will do what the Fed did this year "quantitative easing,"

在這種情況下，央行會像美聯儲今年做的 "量化寬鬆"，。

that's just a fancy word for printing money.

這只是一個花哨的詞 印錢。

Businesses will take that money and hire people.

企業會拿這些錢去僱人。

Investors would see that the economy is slowly recovering and will start investing.

投資者會看到經濟正在慢慢復甦，會開始投資。

The economy will return to the expansion stage, and the same cycle will repeat over and over.

經濟將重新回到擴張階段，同樣的循環將不斷重複。

If we can find out where exactly we are in this graph, we can at least have an idea of

如果我們能找出我們在這張圖中的具體位置，我們至少可以對以下情況有所瞭解

where the economy is headed to.


的經濟走向。

Back in 2015, the Fed started increasing interest rates because the economy reached its peak,

早在2015年，美聯儲就開始加息，因為經濟達到了頂峰。

but then in 2018, the Fed lowered interest rates because the economy was sliding into

但到了2018年，美聯儲降息了，因為經濟陷入了

a recession. 

衰退。

 Even the global GDP growth slowed down year by year.

甚至全球GDP增速逐年放緩。

In 2017 it was 3.1 percent, but in 2019 even before the pandemic, it fell to 2.4 percent,

在2017年是3.1%，但在2019年即使在大流行之前，也下降到2.4%。

the lowest growth of the decade.

十年來的最低增長。

And that didn't happen by accident.

而這並不是偶然發生的。

We had Brexit, the trade war, and many other issues that slowed the economy.

我們有Brexit，貿易戰，以及許多其他問題，使經濟放緩。

But the final knockout out was the pandemic because it literally shut down businesses,

但最後淘汰的是大疫，因為它真的讓企業停產了。

prevented consumers from spending, and left millions unemployed.

阻止了消費者的消費，並使數百萬人失業。

The economy immediately fell into a recession.

經濟立即陷入了衰退。

It wasn't clear how long the recession is going to last since the future seemed very

目前還不清楚經濟衰退會持續多久，因為未來似乎很。

unpredictable.

不可預知的。

But central banks stepped in and lowered interest rates to make borrowing money free, printed

但央行出手了，降低利率，讓借錢變得自由，印製了

trillions of dollars, and made sure to put the money into people's hand so that their

萬億美元，並且一定要把錢放到人們的手裡，這樣他們的。

spending does not fall and get the economy out of this recession as soon as possible.

支出不下降，儘快讓經濟走出衰退。

But most importantly, create an approved vaccine by the end of the year to bring life back

但最重要的是，要在年底前研製出獲批的疫苗，讓生命重現。

to normal.

這是正常的。

The economy is still in a recession, and the GDP is going to shrink by 3.4 percent this

經濟仍處於衰退期，今年GDP將萎縮3.4%。

year.

年。

However, the economy seems to be moving from recession back into the expansion period within

然而，經濟似乎正從衰退期重新進入擴張期，在內

the next year once vaccination will be widely available.

一旦疫苗接種普及，明年。

Whether you trust vaccines or not, that's a story for another time, but feel free to

你是否相信疫苗，這是一個故事，另一個時間，但隨時可以。

let me know your opinion in the comments below.

讓我知道你的意見在下面的評論。

That's why most economists predict a 3.4 percent GDP growth next year, which is very reasonable.

所以大多數經濟學家預測明年GDP增長3.4%，這是非常合理的。

The stock market doesn't usually follow the economy.

股市通常不會跟著經濟走。

However, when the economy is at its expansion period, the stock market tends to do pretty

然而，當經濟處於擴張期時，股市往往會有漂亮的表現

well because when the economy is growing, investors feel more confident to invest.

好，因為當經濟增長時，投資者會更有信心去投資。

Especially since we are going to have a divided government, where Democrats control the house

特別是我們將有一個分裂的政府，民主黨控制著眾議院。

and the executive branch and republicans control the senate.

和行政部門 和共和黨控制的參議院。

Since 1928, S&P500, on average, grew bigger under a divided government than when a single

自1928年以來，標準普爾500指數，平均而言，在分裂政府下的增長比單一政府時的增長更大。

party controlled all branches of government.

黨控制了政府的所有部門。

So, Many analysts predict that the market will rise by 10 to 20 percent.

所以，許多分析師預測，市場將上漲10%至20%。

It also should be a great year for Tesla.

對於特斯拉來說，這也應該是一個偉大的年份。

The Biden administration has raised concerns about climate change and will likely push

拜登政府已經提出了對氣候變化的擔憂，並可能會推

the government to invest in renewable energy and get back to the Paris agreement.

政府投資於可再生能源，並回到巴黎協定。

And as this industry grows, Tesla will grow as well, and since it has been added to the

而隨著這個行業的發展，特斯拉也會隨之發展，既然已經加入到了這個行業中。

S&P500 recently, next year will probably be one of the best years for Tesla.

標普500指數最近，明年可能會是特斯拉最好的一年。

But so does for other companies who are in this sector. 

但對於這個行業的其他公司來說也是如此。

Another sector that will grow is the pharmaceutical industry.

另一個會增長的行業是醫藥行業。

Despite it being a boring industry, 2020 made everyone much more conscious about their health,

儘管這是一個枯燥的行業，但2020年讓大家對健康有了更多的關注。

and governments around the world learned the harsh way that investing in healthcare is

世界各地的政府都從嚴酷的方式中瞭解到，投資醫療保健是

a must if we want to be ready for another pandemic.

如果我們想為另一種大流行病做好準備，就必須這樣做。

So investments in pharmaceutical companies won't stop next year.

所以明年對藥企的投資不會停止。

Companies like Moderna and Pfizer will most likely keep growing.

像摩德納和輝瑞這樣的公司最有可能保持增長。

And finally, the biggest gainers of next year are probably going to be the big tech. 

最後，明年收益最大的可能是大科技。

First of all, amazon because it will play a key role in distributing the vaccine across

首先是亞馬遜，因為它將在分發疫苗的過程中起到關鍵的作用，在整個。

the world since it has one of the biggest distraction channels on the planet. 

世界，因為它擁有地球上最大的分心管道之一。

Of course, the big tech are facing antitrust issues but the chances that they will be broken

當然，大的科技公司都面臨著反壟斷的問題，但被打破的機率卻很大

are too low.

都太低了。

Go and watch business casual's video on why the big tech won't be broken.

去看商務休閒的視頻，為什麼大科技不會被打破。

These are, of course, are speculations; however, they are based on factors and circumstances

當然，這些都是推測；但是，這些都是基於各種因素和情況的。

on the ground. 

在地面上。

Things can definitely take another way, but so far, this is how they look.

事情肯定可以採取另一種方式，但到目前為止，他們是這樣的。

One way people made fortunes is by investing early in tech giants when they were just small

人們發家致富的方式之一，就是在科技巨頭還小的時候，就提前投資了他們

startups.

創業公司。

You can't of course, check out what every startup is doing, but this article by Tends

當然，你不可能檢查出每個創業公司都在做什麼，但Tends的這篇文章。

analyzed hundreds of startups to find out which industry is rising and which particular

分析了上百家創業公司，找出哪些行業正在崛起，哪些特定的。

startups are getting most of the funding and have the highest chances to become the next

創業公司獲得了大部分的資金，並且最有機會成為下一個

trillion-dollar company.

萬億美元的公司。

Trends is filled with exclusive valuable content.

趨勢》中充滿了獨家有價值的內容。

But it's also the place where entrepreneurs, investors, CEOs, analysts, scientists come

但這裡也是創業者、投資人、CEO、分析師、科學家來的地方

together to network, collaborate, and host live Q/A.

一起交流、合作，並主持現場問答。

If you are an entrepreneur or aspire to be one, what could be more valuable than having

如果你是一個企業家或有志於成為一個企業家，還有什麼能比擁有

access to CEOs who built companies from nothing and are ready to answer your questions.

接觸到那些白手起家的CEO，他們隨時準備回答你的問題。

And by signing up to trends, you literally get access to a community of industry leaders

通過註冊趨勢，您可以真正進入一個行業領導者的社區。

in virtually every field, where you can learn to turn your idea into a real business or

幾乎在每一個領域，在這裡你可以學習把你的想法變成一個真正的業務或

be the first to find out the next big thing.

是第一個發現下一個大事情。

Right now, you can get your first seven days for just ONE dollar.

現在，你只需花一美元就可以獲得前七天的服務。

Go to trends.co/proactivethinker for your ONE-DOLLAR, seven-day trial.

前往trends.co/proactivethinker獲取您的一美元七天試用版。

Again thats trends.co/proactivethinker

同樣那是trends.co/proactivethinker。