Get an annual subscription, including access to Nebula, for just $12 a year for a limited time out.

在有限的時間內，每年只需12美元就可以獲得包括星雲在內的年度訂閱。

Curiosity stream dot com slash real life floor.

好奇心流點點網斜線現實生活樓。

Our planet is getting warmer.

我們的地球正在變暖。

Exactly how much warmer it's going to get in the future is anybody's guess.

未來到底會變暖多少，誰也不知道。

But let's just say for fun that the Earth's average temperature increases by.

但我們只是好玩的說，地球的平均溫度增加了。

Oh, I don't know, let's say four degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century.

哦，我不知道，比如說21世紀末的4攝氏度吧。

How will that change our planet's geography?

這將如何改變我們地球的地理環境？

And how will it change all of our daily lives?

它又將如何改變我們所有的日常生活？

For starters, the scenario is based on a map created by a guy named Parag Khanna in his book, Connect Ah Graffiti, which was published four years ago.

首先，這個方案是基於一個叫Parag Khanna的人在他四年前出版的《連接啊塗鴉》一書中創作的地圖。

Back in 2016, the link for which is down in the description Now.

早在2016年，其中的鏈接在描述中就已經下來了，現在。

In the book, Khanna created this map that shows what a speculative world would look like.

在書中，卡納創造了這張地圖，展示了一個推測世界的樣子。

That's four degrees Celsius warmer, and there's a lot of interesting implications to unpack here.

這就是四攝氏度的溫度，這裡有很多有趣的意義需要解讀。

First off the bad news.

先說個壞消息。

Most of the world is now a desert, which sucks.

現在世界上大部分地區都是沙漠，這很糟糕。

Just look at how much sand there is on this map.

看看這張地圖上有多少沙子就知道了。

now cheese.

現在的奶酪。

Every continent in the world is now home to massive deserts, and Africa is effectively an entire desert continent.

現在世界上每個大陸都有大片的沙漠，非洲實際上是整個沙漠大陸。

Extreme weather, droughts and floods render most of the rest of Earth's surface uninhabitable in their own ways, and the Onley habitable zones left on the planet are the narrow bands of land closer to the poles.

極端天氣、乾旱和洪水使地球表面的大部分其他地方都無法以自己的方式居住，地球上剩下的安利可居住區是靠近兩極的狹長地帶。

So here's a list of the most heavily screwed over countries in the world.

所以，這裡列出了世界上被搞得最慘的國家。

And what would happen to them in the scenario followed by the countries that might actually be kind of okay and maybe actually benefit the most china almost entirely an uninhabitable desert, The yellow and Yangtze rivers dry up, and intense weather erodes much of the land away, which leaves behind a vast and sparsely populated desert.

而在接下來的情景中，他們會發生什麼，這些國家其實可能還算是可以的，也許真的受益最大中國幾乎完全是一片不適合居住的沙漠，黃河和長江干涸，強烈的天氣將大部分土地侵蝕殆盡，留下的是一片廣袤而人煙稀少的沙漠。

Almost everybody living here will have to evacuate, which is over 1.4 billion people.

幾乎所有生活在這裡的人都得撤離，這可是14億多人。

The same thing will happen in Korea and Japan, to which also effectively become hot uninhabitable Desert Indonesia, significant parts of the island chain or submerged underwater from rising seal levels.

同樣的事情將發生在韓國和日本，也有效地成為炎熱的不適合居住的沙漠印度尼西亞，島鏈的重要部分或淹沒在水下從海豹水準上升。

Borneo becomes a desert and the rest of the island's air, plagued by extreme weather and floods.

婆羅洲變成了沙漠，島上其他地方的空氣，受到極端天氣和洪水的困擾。

Most of the islands and Polynesia gone just con all underwater 100% evacuation of the populations are necessary.

大部分的島嶼和波利尼西亞都被淹沒在水下 100%的人口疏散是必要的。

The Indian subcontinent Bangladesh is almost entirely flooded and underwater from rising sea levels, meaning that almost all of the 160 million plus people who live here will have to be relocated.

印度次大陸孟加拉國幾乎全部被洪水淹沒，並因海平面上升而被淹沒在水下，這意味著生活在這裡的1.6億多人口幾乎全部要搬遷。

Most of the glaciers in the Himalayas have melted, which contributes toe mighty rivers like the Ganges and the Indus.

喜馬拉雅山的大部分冰川都已經融化，這為恆河和印度河等強大的河流做出了貢獻。

To dry up.

為了乾涸。

Most of India becomes a desert, with only a tiny habitable area in the far south still remaining suitable for agriculture and human life.

印度大部分地區變成了沙漠，只有極南地區的一小塊可居住的地方還適合農業和人類生活。

Pakistan is plagued by severe droughts after the Indus dries up, meaning that only isolated pockets of human communities will be able to continue existing here.

在印度河干涸後，巴基斯坦飽受嚴重乾旱的困擾，這意味著只有孤立的小塊人類社區能夠在這裡繼續生存。

Most of the population will have to be relocated elsewhere.

大部分人口將不得不遷移到其他地方。

Africa is now an entire desert continent, but with some potential to re force the suhel, Africa's entire population will have to either concentrate into just the suhel or evacuate to the more habitable zones.

非洲現在是整個沙漠大陸，但由於有一定的潛力重新逼迫蘇赫勒，非洲的全部人口要麼集中到只是蘇赫勒，要麼疏散到更適合居住的區域。

On other continents, South America is mostly pretty screwed.

在其他大陸上，南美洲大多是很完蛋的。

The Amazon rain forest is destroyed and transforms into a massive desert.

亞馬遜雨林被破壞，變成了一個巨大的沙漠。

The glaciers high up in the Andes mostly melt away, just like in the Himalayas, leaving areas like Peru a dry and uninhabitable wasteland.

安第斯山脈高處的冰川大部分都融化了，就像喜馬拉雅山脈一樣，讓祕魯等地區成為一片乾燥和不適合居住的荒地。

Brazil is plagued by desserts, floods and droughts and will have to mostly be evacuated.

巴西飽受甜點、洪水和乾旱的困擾，大部分人將不得不撤離。

The only part of South America that will be productive and remain highly livable is the far southern reaches of Patagonia in Chile and Argentina.

南美洲只有智利和阿根廷巴塔哥尼亞的南部地區才會有生產力並保持高度的宜居性。

Patagonia is sparsely populated and cold today, but the warming climate and the melting glaciers will give rise to plentiful arable land that could be well suited to agriculture and human life.

巴塔哥尼亞如今人煙稀少，氣候寒冷，但氣候變暖，冰川融化，將產生大量的可耕地，可以很好地滿足農業和人類生活的需要。

So most of South America's population will have to either concentrate down just here or flee to other continents.

所以南美洲的大部分人口要麼集中在這裡，要麼逃往其他大陸。

Now Australia is interesting because it's not all bad.

現在澳洲很有意思，因為它並不全是壞事。

The East Coast, where most of the population is concentrated today, would be totally desertified, and most people there would have to evacuate.

如今大部分人口集中的東海岸將完全沙漠化，那裡的大部分人將不得不撤離。

But new habitable areas that are better for agriculture and development would pop up in northern Australia and Tasmania, while the West Coast would become a pretty ideal place to regrow some forests.

但在澳洲北部和塔斯馬尼亞州會出現更適合農業和發展的新的居住區，而西海岸則會成為一個相當理想的地方，可以重新生長一些森林。

New Zealand, on the other hand, will be almost entirely unrecognizable from what it looks like today.

而紐西蘭，則幾乎完全認不出它今天的樣子。

The islands will be one of the few truly habitable locations remaining on the planet and tens of millions of refugees from across the world will probably end up having to be resettled here.

這些島嶼將是地球上僅存的幾個真正適合居住的地方之一，來自世界各地的數千萬難民最終可能不得不在這裡重新安置。

New Zealand will probably end up becoming one of the most densely populated areas in the world with massive cities, and the country will likely rise up to the status of a global great power.

紐西蘭最終很可能會成為世界上人口最密集的地區之一，擁有大規模的城市，這個國家很可能會上升到全球大國的地位。

But other great powers will exist in this new, warmer world to the United States.

但在這個對美國來說更溫暖的新世界裡，還會有其他大國存在。

While severely weakened by most of her territory, transforming into a desert will likely still remain at least a great power because of Alaska and the far northern states.

雖然她的大部分領土被嚴重削弱，但因為阿拉斯加和極北諸州的原因，變身為沙漠很可能仍然至少是一個大國。

States like Washington, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin will still remain habitable and be highly suitable for agriculture.

華盛頓、蒙大拿、北達科他、明尼蘇達和威斯康星等州仍將保持適宜居住，並高度適合農業發展。

While Alaska will suddenly become extremely pleasant, most of the American population will have to be relocated to these handful of states.

雖然阿拉斯加會突然變得極為宜人，但大部分美國人口都要遷往這幾個州。

But Alaska is enormous, and it's mostly uninhabited Today, it's almost one third of the size of the lower 48 US states, all on its own.

但阿拉斯加面積巨大，而且大多無人居住，如今，它的面積幾乎是美國下48個州的三分之一，全靠自己。

And with the warmer climate, Alaska could actually be you used for farming.

而隨著氣候的變暖，阿拉斯加其實可以被你用來耕種。

It's also rich in natural resources, like oil that would be more easily accessible, and it could probably end up sustaining tens of millions of people living there.

它的自然資源也很豐富，比如石油會更容易獲得，最後可能會維持幾千萬人在那裡生活。

So just like New Zealand, Alaska would be unrecognizable to what it looks like today.

所以，就像紐西蘭一樣，阿拉斯加也會不認識今天的樣子。

With massive cities home to probably hundreds of millions of people, Anchorage, Fairbanks, Seattle and Minneapolis would probably become the new most significant cities in the United States, a country that would probably diminish in power but likely still remain at least a great power over in Europe.

龐大的城市大概有上億人口，安克雷奇、費爾班克斯、西雅圖和明尼阿波利斯可能會成為美國新的最重要的城市，這個國家的實力可能會減弱，但很可能仍然至少是歐洲那邊的一個大國。

The U.

U.

K and Ireland would still remain highly habitable, with a climate that probably more resemble southern France or Spain today.

K和愛爾蘭仍將保持高度的宜居性，其氣候可能更像今天的法國南部或西班牙。

And just like New Zealand in the United States, the U.

而就像美國的紐西蘭一樣，烏。

K would probably be one of the warmer new worlds, great powers.

K可能會是溫暖的新世界之一，大國。

But newer great powers would emerge from the Nordic countries.

但北歐國家會出現更新的大國。

Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland and Iceland would all find themselves in a very strategic position, with significantly warmer climates than today, much better prospects for farming and a highly strategic location near the now summer ice free Arctic Ocean.

丹麥、挪威、瑞典和芬蘭以及冰島都會發現自己處於一個非常重要的戰略地位，氣候比現在要暖和得多，耕種的前景要好得多，而且靠近現在夏季無冰的北冰洋，地理位置非常優越。

All of the Nordic countries would have potential to achieve great power status, with enough room for tens of millions of new people to settle in each.

所有北歐國家都將有潛力實現大國地位，每個國家都有足夠的空間容納數千萬新人口定居。

But the one in the best position is probably Denmark because of their ownership over Greenland.

但處境最好的可能是丹麥，因為他們擁有格陵蘭島的所有權。

Greenland is gigantic, but it's extremely underdeveloped today, with only 56,000 people living there because it's mostly all covered in a huge ice sheets.

格陵蘭島是巨大的，但如今它的發展極不發達，只有5.6萬人居住在那裡，因為那裡大部分都被巨大的冰層覆蓋。

In this warmer climate, though, Greenland's ice sheet would be rapidly melting, which would reveal in almost new world for colonization and resource exploitation.

但在這種溫暖的氣候下，格陵蘭島的冰層將迅速融化，這將為殖民和資源開發提供幾乎新的世界。

Greenland would rapidly be becoming very habitable and pleasant to live on, particularly on the west coast of the island, where Denmark could resettle tens of millions of people from across the world on Denmark's overall population could therefore soar into the hundreds of million's, potentially depending on how much of Greenland is opened up by the retreating ice sheet on their own, the Nordic countries will each become the new major European great powers at the expense of other countries, turning largely into deserts like Spain, Italy, France or even Germany and other countries going underwater like the Netherlands and Belgium.

格陵蘭島將迅速變得非常適宜居住和宜居，尤其是在該島的西海岸，丹麥可以將全世界幾千萬人安置在丹麥的整體人口是以可以飆升到上億，有可能取決於格陵蘭島自己的冰層退縮開闢了多少地方，北歐國家將各自成為新的歐洲大國，而犧牲其他國家的利益，很大程度上變成西班牙、意大利、法國甚至德國這樣的沙漠，其他國家則像荷蘭和比利時這樣的水下國家。

If the Nordics could manage to overcome their differences and unite in the warmer world, it's highly likely that they would become a legitimate global superpower.

如果北歐人能夠設法克服分歧，在溫暖的世界裡團結起來，他們極有可能成為一個合法的全球超級大國。

But there would still be to other countries that would be in an even better position to become superpowers, Canada and Russia.

但還是會到其他國家，加拿大和俄羅斯會有更好的條件成為超級大國。

Just take a look at all of this nice, warm, inhabitable land that both countries would control.

看看這些美好的、溫暖的、可居住的土地，兩個國家都會控制。

That's mostly a frozen hell hole.

那多半是個冰凍的地獄洞。

Today, nearly all of Canada would become nice and pleasant, with an ideal farming climate that could grow most of the world's crops.

今天，幾乎整個加拿大都會變得美好而宜人，理想的農耕氣候可以種植世界上大部分的農作物。

The Arctic Passage, meanwhile, would be free of ice year round.

同時，北極航道將常年無冰。

And with most so the world's population now living around the Arctic Circle in Canada, Alaska, the Nordic States and Russia, the Arctic Passage is without a doubt going to become the new most valuable trade route in the entire world that connects them all together.

而現在世界上大部分所以的人口都生活在北極圈周圍的加拿大、阿拉斯加、北歐國家和俄羅斯，北極航道無疑將成為整個世界上新的最有價值的貿易通道，將他們都連接在一起。

Canada's population today is only 37 million people, and the overwhelming majority of all of this land is uninhabited.

加拿大今天的人口只有3700萬，而這些土地中絕大部分都是無人居住的。

So if she wishes, Canada could open up the floodgates of resettlement and immigration and resettle hundreds of millions of people from across the world into all of this open land that will now actually be easy to develop.

所以，如果她願意，加拿大可以打開安置和移民的閘門，把全世界幾億人安置到現在這些實際上容易開發的空地上。

Canada's superpower status would be almost assured in the long run, and she would likely simply replace the United States on the world stage.

從長遠來看，加拿大的超級大國地位幾乎是可以保證的，她很可能只是取代美國在世界舞臺上的地位。

Meanwhile, the country that would be somehow in an even better position to claim superpower status would give Russia.

同時，在某種程度上會更有條件要求獲得超級大國地位的國家會給俄羅斯。

Russia has even more land than Canada, and even Mawr of this land would become warmer and suitable for agriculture and mining.

俄羅斯的土地甚至比加拿大還要多，甚至這些土地中的馬烏爾會變得更加溫暖，適合農業和採礦。

Siberia is enormous, and it's rich with resource is that are hard to get to right now because of the cold climate.

西伯利亞幅員遼闊，資源豐富，由於氣候寒冷，現在很難到達。

But that drastically changes.

但這一點發生了巨大的變化。

Under this scenario, the biggest problems preventing Russia from becoming um, or significant power than she could be have always been the cold climate that she finds herself trapped in.

在這種情況下，阻止俄羅斯成為嗯，或者比她能成為的重要力量的最大問題一直是她發現自己被困在寒冷的氣候中。

Russia has historically almost always been a nef, effectively landlocked state because most of her coastline is covered by ice for a significant part of the year.

俄羅斯在歷史上幾乎一直是一個內夫，實際上是一個內陸國家，因為她的大部分海岸線在一年中的相當一部分時間被冰雪覆蓋。

In modern times, the Onley ports that Russia controls that air ice free year round are in Kaliningrad on the Baltic and the Crimean caucuses ports on the Black Sea.

在現代，俄羅斯控制的常年無氣冰的昂利港在波羅的海的加里寧格勒和黑海的克里米亞核心港。

The problem has always been, though, that both of these port areas are incredibly easy to blockade because ships have to pass through the choke points of either the Danish Straits in the Baltic or the Dardanelles in the Black Sea.

但問題一直是，這兩個港口區都非常容易被封鎖，因為船隻必須通過波羅的海的丹麥海峽或黑海的達達尼爾海峽的卡口。

Russia's entire history and geopolitical strategy has been dominated for centuries by this geographic reality and the need to have ports on warmer water that aren't as easy to blockade.

幾個世紀以來，俄羅斯的整個歷史和地緣政治戰略都是由這種地理現實主導的，需要在溫暖的水面上擁有不容易封鎖的港口。

If the world warms up by four degrees Celsius, though, this entire reality changes forever.

如果世界變暖四攝氏度，不過，這整個現實就會永遠改變。

Russia's massive northern coast along the Arctic and the Sea of Okhotsk in the Pacific opens up year round without any ice for the first time ever, allowing Russia to finally build ports wherever she wants without having toe 100% rely on the Baltic and Black Sea ports during winter.

俄羅斯在北極和太平洋鄂霍次克海一帶的龐大北部海岸首次全年無冰開放，俄羅斯終於可以在任何地方建設港口，而不必在冬季100%依賴波羅的海和黑海港口。

Russia's enormous and sparsely populated Asian territory is finally available for massive colonization and development efforts with enormous supplies of resource is that will be easy to get to now.

俄羅斯龐大而人口稀少的亞洲領土，終於可以進行大規模的殖民和開發工作了，巨大的資源供應是，現在將很容易得到。

Russia will be in the best possible position in the warm new world too quickly accelerate to a superpower status and position is so good, Russia will probably end up becoming the most powerful and dominant country in the world, capable of resettling billions of people from other regions of the world.

俄羅斯將在溫暖的新世界中以最好的姿態過快地加速走向超級大國的地位，地位如此之好，俄羅斯最終很可能成為世界上最強大、最主要的國家，有能力安置世界其他地區的數十億人口。

Inside of her borders, Russia and Canada both will be almost unrecognizable to what they are today, but maybe not so unrecognizable as Antarctica.

在她的境內，俄羅斯和加拿大都將幾乎認不出今天的樣子，但也許不會像南極洲那樣認不出。

Antarctica will actually start to be greening if the world gets this warm, which has a lot of interesting implications.

如果世界變得這麼暖和，南極洲其實會開始綠化，這有很多有趣的意義。

The westernmost side of Antarctica will be green and actually suitable for agriculture and colonization Here.

南極洲的最西邊將是綠色的，實際上適合農業和殖民這裡。

Currently, western Antarctica is claimed by the overlapping claims of the United Kingdom, Argentina and Chile, while another fast area is currently not claimed by anybody.

目前，南極洲西部由英國、阿根廷和智利重疊主張，而另一快地區目前沒有任何人主張。

Nobody permanently lives here and with the area all of a sudden becoming green, farmable and livable.

沒有人長期居住在這裡，隨著這裡一下子變得綠化、宜農、宜居。

And with billions of homeless climate refugees needing a new place to go, a new colonial scramble for Antarctica could quickly ensue.

而隨著數十億無家可歸的氣候難民需要一個新的去處，一場新的南極洲殖民爭奪戰可能很快就會到來。

The UK, Argentina and Chile could enter into conflicts over their competing claims, while other great powers like Canada and Russia would probably try and stake their own colonial claims over the currently unclaimed land.

英國、阿根廷和智利可能會因為他們的競爭性權利要求而發生衝突，而其他大國如加拿大和俄羅斯可能會試圖在目前無人認領的土地上提出自己的殖民要求。

And all the while, the billions of refugees from uninhabitable desert countries would probably just be clamoring to be resettled onto the currently unoccupied and now green Antarctic land.

而與此同時，來自不適合居住的沙漠國家的幾十億難民，很可能就會吵著要被安置到目前無人居住、現在又是綠色的南極土地上。

Antarctica will become one of the potential global flashpoints and source of enormous controversy in this new warm world.

在這個新的溫暖世界裡，南極洲將成為潛在的全球熱點之一，也是巨大爭議的來源。

Would Antarctica be ruled by various different colonial powers, with settlers reminiscent of the age of discovery?

南極洲會不會被各種不同的殖民勢力統治，定居者讓人想起發現時代？

Would the United Nations intervene and attempt to resettle a green Antarctica with the billions of climate refugees in desperate need of a new home would in New Antarctica as a brand new country, rise up out of nowhere over time.

聯合國會不會干預並試圖安置一個綠色的南極洲，急需新家園的數十億氣候難民將在新南極洲作為一個全新的國家，隨著時間的推移，憑空崛起。

That's made up of a culture of people from all over the world displaced by runaway climate change, vengeful at the rest of the world for screwing them over and destroying their ancestral homelands.

那是由來自世界各地的人組成的文化，他們因失控的氣候變化而流離失所，對世界其他地方坑害他們、破壞他們祖先的家園進行報復。

There's no real way to tell, but the extreme speculation is effectively endless.

雖然沒有真正的辦法判斷，但極端的猜測實際上是無窮的。

Natural disasters that destroy communities will be a defining characteristic of the 21st century.

破壞社區的自然災害將是21世紀的一個鮮明特徵。

Learning about how destructive disasters could be and how societies can avoid them is fascinating to me, and I recently watched an excellent documentary on curiosity stream that details the raw power of one of the greatest of all these disasters, tsunamis.

瞭解災難的破壞性有多大，以及社會如何避免這些災難對我來說很有吸引力，最近我在好奇流上看了一部優秀的紀錄片，詳細介紹了所有這些災難中最偉大的一種--海嘯的原始力量。

It chronicles a worldwide scientific investigation into tsunami threats across the world, where they strike, how they submerge coastal cities and how you can survive one when they strike.

它記錄了全球範圍內對海嘯威脅的科學調查，海嘯在哪裡發生，海嘯是如何淹沒沿海城市的，以及當海嘯發生時，你如何在海嘯中生存。

The documentary is nearly an hour long, and it's just one of thousands of documentaries by award making filmmakers that's available on curiosity stream right now and a subscription Onley costs 11 99 for an entire year.

這部紀錄片時長近一個小時，它只是現在好奇流上數千部獲獎電影人的紀錄片中的一部，訂閱Onley的費用是11 99元，可以看一整年。

That's only a dollar a month for three thousands of professionally made documentaries that you could be watching right now.

那就是一個月只需一元錢，就能買到三部上千部專業製作的紀錄片，你現在就可以看了。

But best of all, with that subscription, you'll also get free access to Nebula, the streaming service created by myself and many of my fellow educational YouTube creators.

但最重要的是，通過該訂閱，你還可以免費訪問Nebula，這是一個由我和許多教育YouTube創作者同事創建的流媒體服務。

In fact, on there you can watch all real life floor, fake life floor and Real Life Lord two videos ad free plus big special exclusive projects from creators like the World's Most Useful Airport from Wendover Productions or Tom Scott's new game show Money.

事實上，在那裡，你可以免費觀看所有的真人樓、假人樓和真人主兩個視頻，還有來自創作者的大型特別獨家項目，比如來自Wendover Productions的《世界上最有用的機場》或Tom Scott的新遊戲節目Money。

So go ahead and watch a ton of awesome content on both platforms.

所以，去看這兩個平臺上大量的精彩內容吧。