Good evening.

晚上好

It's bean.

這是豆。

1628 days since the Brexit referendum.

Brexit公投後1628天。

24 days to go until the end of transition tonight.

距離今晚過渡期結束還有24天。

Still no trade deal, no sign of breakthrough.

還是沒有達成交易，沒有突破的跡象。

But for those seeking optimism, there is the promise of a face to face meeting between the PM and the EU Commission president.

但對於那些尋求樂觀的人來說，總理和歐盟委員會主席之間的面對面會談是有希望的。

The idea that the key leaders would meet if there was no chance whatsoever is an odd one.

如果沒有任何機會的話，主要上司就會開會，這個想法很奇怪。

Perhaps the meeting suggests they're closer than they're actually telling us.

也許這次會面表明他們的關係比他們實際告訴我們的要親密。

Or perhaps not tonight, the PM master's team to give him an overview of the problems.

或者說，今晚或許不會，PM大師的團隊給他介紹一下問題。

As if that were not yet clear.

彷彿這還不清楚。

We'll we'll be looking at the economic and political implications both here on Din Europe in a moment.

我們稍後將在鼎歐網探討其經濟和政治影響。

But we start with the day's events on Nick.

但我們先從今天尼克的事件說起。

What s so far today, then, Nick?

今天到現在為止怎麼樣，尼克？

What's happened?

發生什麼事了？

Well, Emily.

嗯，艾米麗。

In the last few hours, MPs have voted to put back into the UK Internal market Bill those controversial clauses relating to Northern Ireland of the withdrawal agreement.

在過去的幾個小時裡，議員們投票決定將退歐協議中那些與北愛爾蘭有關的爭議性條款重新納入英國內部市場法案。

Those are the ones that would, in the words of the UK, lead to a limited and specified breach off international law.

用聯合王國的話說，這些都是會導致有限的和特定的違反國際法的行為。

Now the U is very relaxed about that because the UK government said them to them today.

現在U國對此非常放鬆，因為英國政府今天對他們說。

If we get a free trade agreement with you, then we will let those clauses laps now on that free trade agreement.

如果我們和你們達成了自由貿易協定，那麼我們就會讓這些條款在自由貿易協定上現在就失效。

I do have to say it is pretty gloomy on both sides of the UK side, saying No progress in the last few days, significant differences and they're saying we feel very gloomy about this.

我確實不得不說，英國這邊兩邊都很陰暗，說這幾天沒有進展，重大的分歧，他們說我們覺得很陰暗。

Interestingly, Boris Johnson has been keeping in close touch, updating Brexit veterans, and they say to me they are very confident that the prime minister is not going to breach any off his red lines on sovereignty.

有趣的是，鮑里斯-約翰遜一直保持著密切的聯繫，更新了Brexit老兵，他們對我說，他們非常有信心，首相不會違反任何關閉他的主權紅線。

On one of those veterans said to me, Look, every five minutes they think it's going to be a deal on then they think it's going to be no deal.

其中一個老兵對我說，你看，每隔五分鐘，他們就認為要成交了，然後他們就認為要不成交了。

But this veterans current thinking is it is no deal.

但這位老兵目前的想法是，這是沒有辦法的事。

But I do have to say I speaking toe a minister who is pretty closely involved in this, and they said to me they do not believe that Boris Johnson would be traveling in person to Brussels to meet Ursula von der Leyen if he thought it was alehouse hopeless and they drew a parallel with the meeting that took place last year between Boris Johnson and then the.

但我不得不說，我說到一個部長誰是相當密切參與了這一點，他們對我說，他們不相信鮑里斯-約翰遜會親自前往布魯塞爾會見烏蘇拉-馮德萊恩，如果他認為這是一個lelehouse無望，他們畫了一個平行於去年鮑里斯-約翰遜和然後之間的會議。

Then he shook Leo, Va Radka in the northwest.

然後他在西北方向搖了搖獅子座、瓦拉德卡。

They met in person.

他們是親自見面的。

They were picture together on this minister said to me, David Frost, the chief negotiator.

他們在一起的照片上這位部長對我說，大衛-弗羅斯特，首席談判代表。

He recommended that meeting and he's recommended this meeting so he knows what the optics of that picture will look like.

他推薦了那次會議，他也推薦了這次會議，所以他知道那張照片的光學效果會是怎樣的。

But obviously it could still not be a deal.

但顯然還是不能成交。

What is your sense of reaction from Brussels tonight?

你對今晚布魯塞爾的反應有何感想？

The next?

下一個？

Well, they are not happy, and it's interesting.

嗯，他們不開心，這很有趣。

I understand that some EU ambassadors who were briefed by Michelle Barnier, the ease chief negotiator, this morning, they were very, very struck about how downbeat he looked on agreements in a sense between the EU and the UK that no agreement on the three key areas.

據我瞭解，一些歐盟大使今天上午聽取了緩和首席談判代表米歇爾-巴尼耶的簡報，他們非常非常震驚，他對歐盟和英國之間的協議看得多麼淡定，在三個關鍵領域沒有達成協議。

So that's fishing.

所以這就是釣魚。

That's the so called level playing fields, which is, can you find common standards?

這就是所謂的公平競爭環境，也就是你能找到共同的標準嗎？

And it's the sort of the governance around all of that.

而這就是圍繞著這一切的治理。

Now, the you what I'm hearing from Brussels, they're saying to the UK is we've got the memo.

現在，你我從布魯塞爾聽到的， 他們對英國說，我們已經得到了備忘錄。

We understand the importance off you taking back, retaining and respecting sovereignty, but they then say if you the UK taken absolutist view of that sovereignty that will lead you to no deal, Nick.

我們明白你們收回、保留和尊重主權的重要性 但他們說如果你們英國對主權持絕對化的觀點 就會導致你們無法達成協議 尼克

Thanks very much indeed.

真的非常感謝。

Well, we ask the government to come on tonight.

好吧，我們要求政府今晚來。

It declined.

它拒絕了。

Now to discuss this further.

現在要進一步討論這個問題。

I'm joined by the Brexit here.

我在這裡加入了Brexit。

Daniel Hannan advises the government on trade and Telegraph Columnist on By Philip Rycroft to until last year was permanent secretary at the department for exiting the European Union.

丹尼爾-漢南在貿易和電報專欄作家上為政府提供建議，由菲利普-萊克羅夫特到直到去年是脫歐部門的常任祕書。

Thanks to you both, gentlemen.

謝謝你們兩位，先生們。

And I guess we know already these clear outlines off where the disagreements are.

我想我們已經知道這些清晰的輪廓了，分歧在哪裡。

Philip, can I start with you?

菲利普，我可以從你開始嗎？

Where can they reach agreement?

他們能在哪裡達成協議？

Then you know the U players?

那你知道U國球員嗎？

Well, where is the landing zone that they can find presumably on Wednesday?

好吧，他們能在週三找到大概的降落區在哪裡？

It is worth remembering that these negotiations have been going on has been a for a long time now.

值得一提的是，這些談判已經進行了很長時間。

And there's an awful lot of stuff that will have been pinned down, perhaps 95% off a trade deal.

而且有很多東西都會被壓下來，也許是交易交易的95折。

Sorted out teams working on legal texts have that ready for legal translation and all the rest of it.

整理出的法律文本工作團隊已經準備好了法律翻譯和其他所有的工作。

So a snake.

所以，一條蛇。

What said you've got the three outstanding issues.

什麼說你有三個未解決的問題。

Fisheries eyes at the end of the day.

漁業眼睛在一天結束時。

A numbers game?

數字遊戲？

How much access Thio UK waters to the quota and UK waters?

Thio英國水域的配額和英國水域的訪問量有多大？

Does the U fleet have?

U車隊有嗎？

What's the transition period?

什麼是過渡期？

Should there be these things can be sorted out if there is a will.

如果有遺囑的話，應該有這些事情可以解決。

The more difficult issues are the points of principle sovereignty from the UK side in terms of the ability to set our own rules from the U perspective, it's protecting the integrity of the single market from what they would see is potentially unfair competition from U K based businesses.

更困難的問題是英國方面的原則主權點，從U的角度來看，我們有能力制定自己的規則，這是保護單一市場的完整性，不受他們會認為是來自U K企業的潛在不公平競爭。

So just to get you to the end of that point, we know where the differences are.

所以說，只要把這個問題說到最後，我們就知道差別在哪裡了。

But where do you think is the actual where do you see the compromise coming?

但你認為實際的哪裡是你看到的妥協的地方？

Because presumably they wouldn't they wouldn't be having this meeting Wednesday.

因為他們大概不會... ...他們就不會在週三開這個會了。

Also, if if there wasn't some bit where there was compromised.

另外，如果不是有一些位在那裡妥協了。

Sure, I think the UK has to be able to demonstrate on the level playing field issues, particularly on state aid, which is the biggest sticking point there, that it has an independent regulator in the UK to manage state aid within a framework of rules within within the UK I think the EU side has got to accept that it cannot insist that the UK has to follow every change in U rules over time.

當然，我認為英國必須能夠證明在公平競爭環境問題上，特別是在國家援助問題上，這是最大的癥結所在，它在英國有一個獨立的監管機構，在英國內部的規則框架內管理國家援助，我認為歐盟方面必須接受，它不能堅持英國必須長期遵循U規則的每一個變化。

Somewhere in between those two positions, it seems to me there is a potential answer.

在我看來，在這兩種立場之間，似乎有一個潛在的答案。

Dan, does that sound pretty much right to you?

丹，你覺得這樣做對嗎？

Is that a concession that you could see our government making well on fisheries?

這是你能看到我們政府在漁業上做出的很好的讓步嗎？

I think I agree with what Philip said.

我想我同意菲利普所說的。

I mean that the issue is sovereignty, Andi.

我的意思是，問題是主權，安迪。

Once that's respected, of course we could be flexible about numbers and quotas and time scales.

一旦尊重了這一點，當然我們可以靈活處理人數和配額以及時間尺度。

I think the bigger issue is the question of whether Britain is really an independent, equal partner and neighbor of the.

我認為更大的問題是英國是否真的是一個獨立、平等的夥伴和鄰居的問題。

I think this is an emotional rather than an economic question for Brussels.

我認為這對布魯塞爾來說是一個情感問題而不是經濟問題。

I think there's a new element in Brussels that is still affronted by the fact of the referendum.

我認為布魯塞爾有一個新的元素，仍然被公投的事實所侮辱。

Andi sees Brexiters as Michelle Barnier once said Aziz, needing to teach us a lesson on still basically regards.

安迪看到的布雷克特人正如米歇爾-巴尼耶曾經說過的阿齊茲，需要給我們上一課的基本上還是視。

Britain is a kind of recalcitrant province, which is why it's not prepared to do the kind of basic trade deal with us that it has done with other countries we're now doing with other countries.

英國是一種頑固的省份，這就是為什麼它不準備與我們做那種基本的貿易協議，就像我們現在與其他國家做的那樣。

It's not really about state aid, which is much lower here than in Europe or following you social and environmental standards.

這其實不是國家援助的問題，這裡的國家援助比歐洲低得多，也不是按照你們的社會和環境標準。

Again, our domestic standards are way, way higher than what are required is a minimum by you.

同樣，我們國內的標準比你們要求的要高很多很多，是一個最低限度的標準。

I think it's more this this reluctance completely to let go.

我覺得更多的是這個這個不願意完全放手。

They still want to have some oversight.

他們還是希望有一些監督。

Some sues, aren t and it's gonna last for ages.

有些訴訟，不是，它會持續很久。

We've got, isn't it just Isn't it much simpler, much more practical for the EU than that?

我們已經有了，是不是對歐盟來說，是不是比這更簡單，更實用？

They just don't want a competitors, er right on their doorstep?

他們只是不想讓競爭對手，呃，就在他們家門口？

Isn't it that simple?

不就是這麼簡單嗎？

Well, you'll remember that when Theresa May offered a deal that would have found us very, very closely toe all you technical standards not just ecological and employment laws but aleck nickel standards that was put forward at the Salzburg Summit, and it was thrown back in her face and Michelle Barnier went around brandishing this graph.

你還記得，當特雷莎-梅提出了一個協議，會發現我們非常非常接近你們所有的技術標準，不僅僅是生態和就業法律，而是在薩爾茨堡峰會上提出的阿勒克鎳標準，這被她甩到了後面，米歇爾-巴尼耶到處揮舞著這張圖表。

You'll remember it with a staircase showing that the only option if we were leaving was toe have a straightforward Canada style trade deal.

你會記得它的樓梯顯示，如果我們要離開，唯一的選擇就是直接達成加拿大式的貿易協議。

Of course, the moment that Boris took him at his word and said, All right, that's what we'll do.

當然，當鮑里斯對他言聽計從，說：好吧，我們就這麼辦。

The offer was snatched away and all sorts of last minute problems were put in the way.

報價被搶走了，最後關頭又被各種問題擋住了。

And that's why I think, really the question is whether the you can accept the fact emotionally as well as technically a Frexit.

這就是為什麼我認為，真正的問題是，你是否能在情感上接受這個事實，以及在技術上接受Frexit。

Yeah, I hear that.

是的，我聽到了。

I mean, I think Canada is, you know, is a bit of a red herring because it doesn't include financial services there.

我的意思是，我認為加拿大是，你知道，是一個有點紅鯡魚，因為它不包括金融服務有。

It doesn't have a border with the EU.

它與歐盟沒有邊界。

Trades approximately.

交易約。

I don't know 1/10 of what we do with the EU.

我不知道我們與歐盟的1/10。

But do you accept that, Philip, that there is this sort of punishment element?

但你接受嗎，菲利普， 有這種懲罰的元素？

Do you hear any of that?

你聽到了嗎？

There's always been true, I think, from the off that the EU member states and you concerned that it didn't look as though the UK could get a better deal outside of the EU than it had as a member state on.

一直以來都是如此，我想，從一開始，歐盟成員國和你關心的是，看起來英國在歐盟之外不能得到比作為成員國更好的待遇，在。

Of course, that's been part of it.

當然，這已經是一部分了。

But the sort of deal that the UK is seeking, even this relatively thing trade deal that we're after now does, of course, in many respects go beyond what has been on offer to other countries in particular.

但是，英國正在尋求的那種協議，甚至是我們現在所追求的這種相對事情的貿易協議，當然在很多方面確實超出了特別是對其他國家提出的要求。

On notably, it would be tariff on quota free on.

在值得注意的是，這將是關稅對配額免費的上。

That's why the EU is concerned about the relative competitive advantage that UK businesses that might take if the rules in the UK are allowed Thio lapse or to get fall much below the standards that pertain in the U.

這就是為什麼歐盟擔心英國企業，可能採取的相對競爭優勢，如果在英國的規則被允許Thio失效或得到下降遠低於標準，在U.S.。

Well, if it is so relatively thin as a trade deal, as you as you say, then would it be so much worse to go to no deal and to let the sides realized what had happened and then, you know, meet each other at a point where there was the appetite for a deal again.

好吧，如果像你說的那樣，作為一個貿易交易，它是如此相對薄弱，那麼它會不會有這麼多的壞處，去沒有交易，讓雙方意識到發生了什麼，然後，你知道，滿足對方在一個點，有再次交易的胃口。

Well, there are two issues in that one is no deal worse than a deal.

嗯，有兩個問題，一個是沒有交易不如交易。

Absolutely.

絕對的

It is tariff supply and would have a really big impact on some important sectors, like agri food on automotive.

它是關稅供給，會對一些重要的行業產生非常大的影響，比如農業食品對汽車。

Don't forget, if we don't get a trade deal, all the other elements of the relationship fall away like internal security.

別忘了，如果我們沒有達成貿易協議，其他所有的關係要素都會消失，比如內部安全。

Short term disruption at the border in an ideal context is likely to be a lot worse on.

理想情況下，邊境的短期混亂很可能會差很多上。

We have to remember also the impact within the UK itself.

我們還必須記住英國國內本身的影響。

Important elections coming up in Scotland next year.

明年蘇格蘭將迎來重要的選舉。

No deal, a no deal outcome would be very much grist to a nationalist mill.

沒有協議，沒有協議的結果會讓民族主義的工廠非常的灰心。

But in the context of a no deal, it is unlikely that negotiations would resume anytime soon.

但在沒有協議的情況下，不可能很快恢復談判。

There'll be a lot of bad blood, a lot of bad temper.

會有很多壞血，很多壞脾氣。

Political pride would kick in.

政治自尊心會發作。

It would be difficult to get back around the table down.

要想回到桌子上下來就很難了。

What would you say to those in your party who openly said they would actually prefer no deal?

對於貴黨中那些公開表示其實寧願不做交易的人，你會怎麼說？

Are they wrong?

他們錯了嗎？

Yes, of course.

是的，當然。

They're wrong.

他們錯了

It's much better.

好多了

It must be better toe.

一定是更好的腳趾。

Have a deal with our immediate neighbors.

和我們的近鄰做個交易。

Who are our suppliers, our customers and our friends.

誰是我們的供應商，我們的客戶和我們的朋友。

Andi.

安迪

Our allies.

我們的盟友。

But you know, I just I am constantly bewildered by hearing that we heard it just just now.

但你知道，我只是我不斷地被聽到我們剛才聽到的消息所迷惑。

This idea that country's somehow trade with each other out of kindness that you know having a zero terrorist regime somehow a favor to somebody else rather than a favor to yourself and your own consumers.

這種想法認為國家之間的貿易是出於善意的... ...你知道有一個零恐怖的制度... ...某種程度上是對別人的幫助... ...而不是對自己和自己的消費者的幫助。

You know where we are negotiating zero tariff trade deals with Australia and New Zealand at the moment, no one's suggesting that the needs to be Anel Ament of kind of oversight of each other's regulations in order to do that and The reason we're doing it is not just because we like the Australians.

你知道，目前我們正在與澳洲和紐西蘭談判零關稅貿易協議，沒有人建議需要對對方的法規進行監督，以做到這一點，我們這樣做的原因不僅僅是因為我們喜歡澳大利亞人。

It's because it's good for both of us.

因為這對我們雙方都有好處。

The EU is not right but I think that attitude in the way that it does to everyone.

歐盟是不對的，但我認為這種態度在對大家。

But isn't that the crux of it that actually the more we talk about sovereignty, the Mauritz sounds like we can't give up any of our power that is needed to do any bilateral trade deal.

但這不就是癥結所在嗎，其實越是談主權，莫里茨聽起來我們不能放棄任何雙邊貿易協議所需要的權力。

I mean, that's that's what you have to do.

我的意思是，這就是你必須做的。

You have to invest in trust with another side.

你要和另一邊投資信任。

But that is emphatically Emily, not what we're doing, because when after the rejection of the Salzburg terms, when we were told Look, if you want to leave, it's gotta be on the on the simple Canada type deals way only looked at extent deals that the EU has already done with South Korea with Japan with Canada, we did not ask for things that went beyond them on DSO.

但是，這顯然是艾米麗，不是我們正在做的，因為當拒絕薩爾茨堡條款後，當我們被告知，看，如果你想離開，它必須在簡單的加拿大類型的交易方式上，只看了歐盟已經與韓國與日本與加拿大做的程度交易，我們沒有要求超越他們的DSO的東西。

We're not asking for anything unprecedented.

我們並沒有要求什麼史無前例的事情。

Three.

三號

You isn't claiming that we're asking for something so unusual that it needs toe have sovereignty, that their argument bizarrely is that they need to have some oversight over our standards because we're nearby, which is Do you want to come back on that?

你並不是說我們要求的東西太不尋常了，以至於需要有主權，他們的論點是，他們需要對我們的標準有一些監督，因為我們就在附近，這就是你想回來的原因嗎？

What is the answer that eso being nearby actually does matter in trade terms on if you look at the volume of trade, as you mentioned earlier on between the U.

什麼是答案，eso是附近實際上確實重要的貿易條款上，如果你看貿易量，你剛才提到的美國之間的貿易。

K on the E.

K對E。

U is very much greater than the volume of trade between the EU and Japan and Australia and all the rest of it.

U比歐盟與日本和澳洲之間的貿易額以及其他所有的貿易額要大得多。

Andi.

安迪

It's 43 44% of U K trade in both export in both goods and services.

在商品和服務的出口方面都佔到了英國貿易的43 44%。

With the U.

與美國。

We are a very major trading partner on their doorstep.

我們是他們家門口非常重要的貿易伙伴。

And that is why they have these concerns that it isn't the end of day master of sentiment.

所以他們才會有這些顧慮，這不是天涯大師的情懷。

From their perspective, I think it is about concerns about protecting the integrity of the single market.

從他們的角度來看，我認為這是關於保護單一市場完整性的問題。

And that's why they're putting these conditions in place.

所以他們才會提出這些條件。

When I just ask you to step back for a second.

當我只要求你退後一秒。

When you look at where we are 4.5 years on with either a relatively thin trade deal or perhaps no deal, it all is that what you on Brexit is were dreaming off?

當你看看我們4.5年後的位置，要麼是一個相對稀薄的貿易協議，要麼可能沒有協議，這一切就是你對Brexit是在做夢？

Is this what it was all about?

難道就是為了這個？

Well, I mean, you'll know that during before, during and after the referendum I argued for something much mawr along the lines of what the Swiss ended up with a neft er deal that sadly was shot down by both sides.

嗯，我的意思是，你會知道，在公投前，公投中和公投後，我主張的東西更多的是沿著瑞士人最終達成的新協議的路線，可惜被雙方擊倒了。

In the aftermath of the referendum.

在公投之後，。

There was a kind of polarization and quickly emerged.

有一種兩極分化，很快就出現了。

There wasn't much support for that.

並沒有多少人支持。

But I have to say, looking at the way in which the EU has conducted these latest I wonder whether even that would have been on offer without also wanting us in the common fisheries policy, wanting to the customs union on a bunch of extra ad.

但我不得不說，看著歐盟進行這些最新的方式，我不知道是否連這也會被提供，而不是也想我們在共同的漁業政策，想關稅同盟上一堆額外的廣告。

That's imponderable, isn't it?

這是不可估量的，不是嗎？

But thank you both very much.

但非常感謝你們兩個。

Thanks for joining us tonight.

謝謝你今晚加入我們