And we are now living through another period off automation and anxiety, and this is something that has featured in various points in history.

而我們現在正生活在另一個關乎自動化和焦慮的時期，這也是歷史上不同時期的特色。

Back in 1929 for example, The New York Times published this article on the fate off the Lamplighter.

例如，早在1929年，《紐約時報》就發表了這篇關於 "燈火號 "命運的文章。

So since the 15 hundreds, lamp lighters had been in occupation that featured in most neighborhoods and was an institution alongside the local police Onda post office.

是以，自15百年以來，點燈人一直在佔領，特色在大多數社區，是一個機構與當地警方Onda郵局旁邊。

But with the electrification off city lights, they were threatened on lamp lighters disappeared over a matter off just a few decades now.

但隨著城市照明的電氣化，他們受到威脅的燈飾打火機消失在短短几十年的事情了。

Even the lamp lighters mostly willingly agreed that electrification off light had its virtues.

即使是點燈人，也大多心甘情願地認為，電氣化關燈有其優點。

But that didn't keep them from resisting a threat to their jobs.

但這並不妨礙他們抵制對工作的威脅。

There's been a tendency to ridicule people that resists new technologies.

一直以來，人們都傾向於嘲笑那些抗拒新技術的人。

And when I was an undergrad in economic history and I was told that the very last thing we should worry about is machinery and technology taking people's jobs because economic growth was stagnant for millennia and only actually took off with the first machine age with the introduction off machinery in production that allowed us to produce much more with fewer people.

當我讀經濟史大學的時候 有人告訴我，我們最不應該擔心的就是機械和技術搶走人們的工作，因為經濟增長停滯了幾千年，只有在第一個機器時代才真正起飛，在生產中引入機械，讓我們用更少的人生產更多的東西。

Now that is not to suggest that economic activity was completely stagnant prior to them, and there was a lot off inventions before then.

現在，這並不是說在他們之前經濟活動完全停滯不前，在那之前有很多關發明。

But there were very few machines that actually were used and in production.

但真正被使用並投入生產的機器卻很少。

And it is indeed those machines that allowed us to produce more with fewer people on.

而確實是這些機器讓我們用更少的人上生產更多的東西。

As a result of that, people are roughly 40 times richer today, adjusted for inflation.

是以，經通貨膨脹調整後，今天人們的財富大約是40倍。

Then they were in 17 50.

然後他們在17 50。

Now you might ask, How much does it does it make sense even to compare incomes in 17 50 with incomes today?

現在你可能會問，即使把17 50年的收入與今天的收入進行比較，又有多少意義呢？

Because the consumer baskets that you can purchase for income is very different today than it waas back then.

因為今天你能買到的收入的消費籃子和當年有很大不同。

So people during the early days of the Industrial Revolution can only look after the lives of the wealthy in envy, who had servants to do the most tedious things for them.

所以工業革命初期的人們只能在羨慕中照顧富人的生活，他們有僕人為他們做最繁瑣的事情。

Today, all of us here have access to the electric servant in terms of dishwashers, washing machines, vacuum cleaners and so on that relieve us off a lot off tedious work, not to mention antibiotics and automobiles, and indeed, technology has had a tremendous equalizing effect in terms of our consumption possibilities as well.

今天，我們在座的各位都可以使用電動僕人，比如洗碗機、洗衣機、吸塵器等等，為我們減輕了很多繁瑣的工作，更不用說抗生素和汽車了，事實上，科技對我們的消費可能性也產生了巨大的均衡效應。

And if that wasn't enough evidence of progress, consider the fact that earning those higher incomes and producing those new goods and services has become much more comfortable.

如果這還不足以證明進步，那就想想賺取這些較高的收入和生產這些新的商品和服務已經變得更加舒適的事實吧。

A swell At the dawn of the Industrial Revolution, a lot of people working coal mines they didn't see daylight.

一個膨脹 在工業革命的黎明，很多在煤礦工作的人，他們看不到白天。

Four weeks.

四個星期。

Cave ins and explosions were part of everyday working life, long to see something.

洞口和爆炸是日常工作生活的一部分，長見識了。

Caymus Part of the work package.

Caymus 工作包的一部分。

Today, the majority off us work in air conditioned offices.

今天，我們大多數人都在空調辦公室工作。

I think the hardest day in recent memory at Oxford Martin School was when the coffee machine broke down.

我想最近在牛津馬丁學校最難熬的一天是咖啡機壞了。

And I think, you know, you need to put things in perspective.

我認為，你知道，你需要把事情看清楚。

So I think the long run story off mechanization is clearly one that has benefited.

所以，我認為從機械化的長跑故事來看，顯然是受益的。

Or so Unfortunately, I think it's also only half of the story.

或者說不幸的是，我認為這也只是故事的一半。

Now.

現在就去

The industrial Revolution is essentially what laid the foundations for the modern world, and I think it's interesting just to take a step back and think about what people actually said and thought at the time.

工業革命基本上是為現代世界奠定了基礎，我覺得只要退一步想一想當時人們到底說了什麼，想了什麼，就很有意思。

So Benjamin Disraeli, for example, before he became prime minister of Britain published a novel called Corning's Be in 18 48 in which one character remarks that I see cities, people with machines.

所以，比如說本傑明-迪斯雷利，在他成為英國首相之前，在18 48年出版了一本小說，叫《康寧的貝》，其中一個人物說，我看到的是城市，是有機器的人。

Certainly Manchester must be the most wonderful place off modern times.

當然，曼徹斯特一定是現代最美妙的地方。

The very same year Frederick Engels publish his conditions of the working classes in England, which was written during a stay in Precisely Manchester on Angles had a very different take on the matter.

同年，弗雷德裡克-恩格斯發表了他的英國工人階級的條件，這是在曼徹斯特逗留期間寫的，對安格斯有一個非常不同的看法。

He argued that machinery only subject downgrade people take people's jobs and puts downward pressure on workers wages.

他認為，機械只主體降級人取人的工作，給工人工資帶來下行壓力。

Now we all know that he waas wrong about the future.

現在我們都知道，他對未來的看法是錯誤的。

But it was actually fairly on target about the period, he observed, because even as the British economy took off, wages were stagnant and probably even falling at the lower end off the income distribution.

但據他觀察，這段時期的目標其實相當準確，因為即使在英國經濟起飛時，工資也停滯不前，甚至可能在收入分配的低端下降。

The future off technological progress and economic growth actually depends a lot on what people believe, and if people think that they're going to benefit from this off the short medium, long term people are likely to willingly accept automation, but if they don't think so, they're much more likely to resist it.

未來關乎技術進步和經濟增長，其實很大程度上取決於人們的信念，如果人們認為自己會從中受益，關乎短中長期的人們很可能會心甘情願地接受自動化，但如果他們不這麼認為，他們就更可能抵制自動化。

And one of the key points is that the reason that the first industrial revolution actually happened in Britain, Waas that for the first time in Britain, governments actually sided with innovators and pioneers off industry rather than angry workmen.

其中一個關鍵點是，第一次工業革命之所以發生在英國，是因為英國政府第一次站在創新者和工業先驅一邊，而不是憤怒的工人。

The craft guilds, which persisted all across Europe up until the 19th century, had no interest in any machinery being implemented that threatened their skills and incomes and fearing social unrest, government typically sided with the guilt.

手工業行會在整個歐洲一直持續到19世紀，他們對任何威脅到他們技能和收入的機械的實施都沒有興趣，擔心社會動盪，政府通常會站在罪惡的一方。