It's a mountainous region between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

這是亞美尼亞和阿塞拜疆之間的一個山區。

And the center of a relentless dispute between these countries; Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally

而這些國家之間無休止的爭端的中心；納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫在國際上。

recognized as part of Azerbaijan, but was occupied by Armenia in a war almost 30 years

被承認為阿塞拜疆的一部分，但在近30年的戰爭中被亞美尼亞佔領。

ago. Both country's armies have been dug in along

前。兩國的軍隊一直在沿線挖。

this line ever since. Fighting occasionally broke out but usually

這條線從此以後。偶爾會爆發戰鬥，但通常

died down.

消失了。

This time was different. Fierce fighting erupted in September 2020

這一次不同。2020年9月，爆發了激烈的戰鬥。

and quickly became a full-scale war. Both sides were accused of bombing civilian

並迅速成為一場全面戰爭。雙方都被指控轟炸平民

areas in the region.

該區域的地區。

Thousands of people died, including 100 civilians. Then, in a sudden and dramatic turn in this

數千人死亡，包括100名平民。然後，在這個突如其來的戲劇性轉折中。

decades old conflict, Armenia surrendered.

幾十年的衝突，亞美尼亞投降了。

A ceasefire was signed on November 9 and Azerbaijan declared victory.

11月9日簽署了停火協議，阿塞拜疆宣佈勝利。

So what sparked this war?

那麼是什麼引發了這場戰爭呢？

And what does the ceasefire mean for this fiercely contested place?

停火對這個爭奪激烈的地方又意味著什麼？

Nagorno-Karabakh is in the Caucuses, between Europe and Asia.

納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫位於歐洲和亞洲之間的高加索地區。

Historically, its population has been mostly ethnic Armenian with a substantial Azeri minority.

歷史上，其人口主要是亞美尼亞族，還有相當多的阿澤裡少數民族。

It's dotted with medieval Armenian churches, has always had this strong Armenian population.

這裡遍佈著中世紀的亞美尼亞教堂，一直有這強大的亞美尼亞人口。

And to complicate things, in the 18th century, a kind of very big, important Azerbaijani

更為複雜的是，在18世紀，阿塞拜疆出現了一種非常大的、重要的阿塞拜疆人。

town, the citadel of Shusha, was founded right in the middle of this territory.

鎮，舒沙的城池，就建立在這塊領土的中間。

So this was a region that was incredibly important both to Armenians and to Azerbaijanis.

是以，這是一個對亞美尼亞人和阿塞拜疆人都非常重要的地區。

But for most of the 19th century, it was ruled by the Russian Empire.

但在19世紀的大部分時間裡，它是由俄羅斯帝國統治的。

After the Empire fell, in 1918, ethnic Armenians and Azeris formed new countries: Armenia and

帝國滅亡後，1918年，亞美尼亞族和阿塞拜疆族組成新的國家。亞美尼亞和阿塞拜疆。

Azerbaijan. And they immediately fought over this region.

阿塞拜疆。他們立即為這一地區打了起來。

But just three years later, Russian Soviets conquered the entire Caucuses.

但僅僅三年後，俄羅斯蘇維埃就征服了整個高加索地區。

The soviets eventually made Armenia and Azerbaijan “republics” within the Soviet Union and

蘇聯最終把亞美尼亞和阿塞拜疆變成了蘇聯內部的 "共和國"，並且

drew new borders. And they made Nagorno-Karabakh a semi-autonomous

劃定了新的邊界。他們使納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫成為一個半自治的國家。

region in the Azerbaijani Republic, despite its majority-Armenian population.

阿塞拜疆共和國境內的一個地區，儘管該地區的亞美尼亞人佔多數。

Ethnic Armenians there frequently asked to join the Armenian Republic, but were denied.

那裡的亞美尼亞族人經常要求加入亞美尼亞共和國，但遭到拒絕。

This was the Soviet Union. There was no democracy. There was no dialog. The kind of problem festered

這就是蘇聯。沒有民主，沒有對話。沒有對話。那種問題的發酵。

for all those years. Still, there weren't signs of war until the

這麼多年來。不過，直到戰爭爆發前，還是沒有任何徵兆。

Soviet Union began to loosen its grip. In the late 1980s, the Soviet Union announced

蘇聯開始放鬆控制。20世紀80年代末，蘇聯宣佈。

a new policy, called glasnost, that gave its people more political freedoms.

稱為 "格拉斯諾斯特 "的新政策，給予人民更多的政治自由。

But it had unintended consequences.

但它帶來了意想不到的後果。

Glasnost has given people freedom not only to create but to hate.

格拉斯諾斯特不僅給了人們創造的自由，也給了人們仇恨的自由。

Ancient feuds erupting such as the one between Azerbaijan and Armenia."

古代仇殺爆發，如阿塞拜疆和亞美尼亞之間的仇殺"。

In 1988, ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh passed a referendum to leave the Azerbaijan

1988年，納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫的亞美尼亞族人通過了關於離開阿塞拜疆的全民投票。

Republic, reviving the conflict. In Armenia, people rallied for unification.

共和國，使衝突死灰復燃。在亞美尼亞，人們團結起來，要求統一。

While in Azerbaijan, people responded with counter-protests.

而在阿塞拜疆，人們則以反抗議來回應。

Violence soon erupted in Nagorno-Karabakh. As the Soviet Union fell apart, Armenia and

納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫很快爆發了暴力事件。隨著蘇聯的解體，亞美尼亞和納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫地區也發生了暴力事件。

Azerbaijan declared independence, escalating the conflict into a war.

阿塞拜疆宣佈獨立，使衝突升級為戰爭。

About 20,000 people died. And over 1 million were forced to flee their homes in the region.

大約有2萬人死亡。超過100萬人被迫逃離該地區的家園。

Fighting raged for 3 more years, until Armenia finally won.

戰鬥又持續了3年，直到亞美尼亞最終獲勝。

In 1994, both sides signed a ceasefire agreement, freezing the conflict.

1994年，雙方簽署了停火協議，凍結了衝突。

Armenia occupied several pieces of Azerbaijan. As well as Nagorno-Karabakh, which was still

亞美尼亞佔領了阿塞拜疆的幾塊土地。納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫也被亞美尼亞佔領。

legally recognized as part of Azerbaijan even though it had declared itself an autonomous

阿塞拜疆的一部分，儘管它已宣佈自己是一個自治國家。

region at the start of the war. This occupation displaced hundreds of thousands

在戰爭開始時，該地區被佔領。這一佔領使數十萬人流離失所。

of azeris from their homes. The deal was brokered by Russia, who was a

的阿塞拜疆人的家園。這筆交易是由俄羅斯斡旋的，俄羅斯是一個很好的例子。

formal ally to Armenia but also had a good relationship with Azerbaijan.

亞美尼亞的正式盟友，但與阿塞拜疆的關係也很好。

Russia's role has always been a bit ambiguous here.

俄羅斯在這裡扮演的角色始終有些模糊不清。

Because although they are the main mediator, they've had their own agenda, which is to

因為雖然他們是主要的調解人，但他們已經有了自己的議程，那就是要。

keep their influence in the region and if possible, get Russian troops back on the ground.

保持他們在該地區的影響力，並在可能的情況下，讓俄羅斯軍隊回到當地。

While Russia was not able to send troops as part of the deal in 1994, it did end up leading

雖然俄羅斯未能在1994年的協議中派兵，但它最終還是帶頭派兵。

a new international group, with France and the US to try and find a permanent solution

組成新的國際小組，與法國和美國一起，試圖找到一個永久性的解決方案。

to the conflict.

的衝突。

But Armenia and Azerbaijan refused to settle. Instead, Armenia renamed formerly Azeri towns

但亞美尼亞和阿塞拜疆拒絕解決。相反，亞美尼亞將以前的阿澤裡鎮重新命名為 "阿塞拜疆"。

and repopulated them with ethnic Armenians.

並用亞美尼亞族人重新居住在這些地方。

While its leaders called for it to be officially unified with Armenia.

雖然其領導人呼籲它與亞美尼亞正式統一。

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan planned a comeback. From 2008 to 2019, it spent $24 billion on

與此同時，阿塞拜疆計劃捲土重來。從2008年到2019年，它花費了240億美元用於。

its military. Six times more than Armenia.

其軍事。是亞美尼亞的六倍。

All the while reiterating its claim to Nagorno-Karabakh. On the ground, both countries maintained a

同時重申其對納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫的主張。在實地，兩國都保持著對納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫的主權。

On the ground, both countries maintained a military presence along the front lines. Where skirmishes broke out occasionally.

在地面上，兩國都在前線保持著軍事存在。在偶爾爆發小規模衝突的地方。

In 2016, they fought a war that lasted 4 days.

2016年，他們打了一場持續4天的戰爭。

So people called this a frozen conflict. But it was in no way a frozen conflict. It was

所以人們稱這是一場僵持的衝突。但這絕不是一場僵持的衝突。它是

a smoldering conflict. And it reignited when another country suddenly

熾熱的衝突。而當另一個國家突然

intervened.

介入。

In the past few years, Turkey

在過去幾年中，土耳其

Turkey has increasingly intervened in conflicts around the region, in order to

土耳其越來越多地干預該地區的衝突，以便

tilt the outcomes in its favor. By sending troops into the Syrian civil war,

傾斜結果對其有利。通過向敘利亞內戰派兵。

it captured a swath of territory along its border in 2019.

它在2019年奪取了其邊境的一大片領土。

And in 2020, its troops have turned the tide of the Libyan civil war in favor of the government,

而在2020年，其部隊已經扭轉了利比亞內戰的趨勢，有利於政府。

who is helping Turkey claim valuable natural gas deposits in the Mediterranean.

該公司正在幫助土耳其開採地中海地區寶貴的天然氣礦藏。

These are also ways for Turkey to push back against its major rival, Russia, who is also

這些也是土耳其反擊其主要競爭對手俄羅斯的方法，俄羅斯也是。

fighting in both conflicts. So in July 2020, when skirmishes broke out

兩個衝突中的戰鬥。所以在2020年7月，當小規模衝突爆發時

in Nagorno-Karabakh, Turkey saw an opportunity and threw its support behind Azerbaijan, whose

在納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫，土耳其看到了一個機會，並對阿塞拜疆給予支持。

majority Azeri-population is a Turkic ethnic group.

大多數阿塞拜疆人是突厥族。

Azerbaijan is probably the closest country there is to Turkey. The two languages are

阿塞拜疆可能是離土耳其最近的國家。這兩種語言是

extremely close. There was even talk of, you know, one nation and two states.

非常接近。甚至有人說，你知道，一個國家和兩個州。

And they also, I guess, wanted to kind of on a crude level, have a thumb in the eye

我想，他們也想在粗略的層面上，有一個拇指在眼睛裡的那種。

for Russia. In August, the two held joint military exercises

為俄羅斯。8月，雙方舉行聯合軍事演習

in Azerbaijan. And Turkey's supply of weapons to Azerbaijan

在阿塞拜疆，土耳其向阿塞拜疆供應武器。土耳其向阿塞拜疆供應武器

dramatically surged.

急劇上升。

Which included advanced drones. I think this conflict has been planned for

其中包括先進的無人機。我認為這場衝突已經計劃好了

many months jointly in Ankara and in Baku. And so with Turkey's support, Azerbaijan

在安卡拉和巴庫聯合舉行了許多個月的會議。是以，在土耳其的支持下，阿塞拜疆

launched its attack. In just over a week, Azerbaijani soldiers

發動攻擊。在短短一週多的時間裡，阿塞拜疆阿兵哥

had pushed at least 20 kilometers into Armenian-held territory.

至少推進了20公里，進入亞美尼亞人控制的領土。

A few weeks later, they advanced further into Nagorno-Karabakh, and also got close to the

幾周後，他們進一步向納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫推進，並接近納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫。

Armenian border.

亞美尼亞邊境。

It wasn't a fair fight. Armenia fought back but was nearly defenseless

這不是一場公平的戰鬥。亞美尼亞雖有反擊，但幾乎毫無防備。

against Azerbaijan's deadly drones. Then, on November 8, Azerbaijan won its biggest

針對阿塞拜疆致命的無人機。然後，在11月8日，阿塞拜疆贏得了其最大的。

victory. It captured the historic city of Shusha, just 15 kilometers from the capital,

勝利。佔領了距離首都僅15公里的歷史名城舒沙。

Stepanakert.

斯捷潘納克特。

That's when Armenia agreed to surrender. The ceasefire agreement that ended the war

這時亞美尼亞同意投降。結束戰爭的停火協議。

The ceasefire agreement that ended the war

結束戰爭的停火協定；

dramatically reshapes who controls Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan will keep what it captured and

戲劇性地改變了誰控制納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫的局面。阿塞拜疆將保留它所奪取的東西，並

take over this part from Armenia. This part remains under control of ethnic

從亞美尼亞手中接管這部分地區。這一部分仍由亞美尼亞人控制。

Armenians, but they won't be alone. Russia didn't intervene in the war, but

亞美尼亞人，但他們不會孤獨。俄羅斯並沒有介入戰爭，但...

brokered this deal which calls for 2,000 of its troops to serve there as peacekeepers.

促成了這一協議，要求其2 000名阿兵哥作為維和人員在那裡服務。

Russia obviously had its ideas about how to end this conflict with Russian peacekeepers.

對於如何結束這場衝突，俄羅斯維和人員顯然有自己的想法。

And certainly didn't rush to help Armenia. Turkey also gains a foothold here.

當然也沒有急著幫助亞美尼亞。土耳其也在這裡獲得了立足之地。

The deal calls for the construction of a road here, which would give Turkey access to Azerbaijan.

該協議要求在這裡修建一條公路，使土耳其能夠進入阿塞拜疆。

Plus, in agreement with Russia, Turkey will now send its own peacekeeping troops to the

另外，在與俄羅斯達成協議後，土耳其現在將派遣自己的維和部隊到。

region. So while Azerbaijan is celebrating and Turkey

該地區。所以，當阿塞拜疆在慶祝，土耳其

and Russia won strategic rewards, Armenia is in turmoil.

和俄羅斯贏得了戰略獎勵，亞美尼亞陷入了動盪。

After the deal was announced, mobs stormed government buildings in the capital and called

交易宣佈後，暴徒們衝進了首都的政府大樓，並呼籲。

for the removal of the Prime Minister. I think, Armenia, is in a huge state of trauma.

罷免總理。我認為，亞美尼亞正處於巨大的創傷之中。

It's going to take a long time for it to recover from this. And the political crisis, I think,

它需要很長的時間來恢復。而政治危機，我想。

is going to be ongoing for a long time in Armenia.

將會在亞美尼亞持續很長時間。

In Nagorno-Karabakh, ethnic Armenians in newly-captured areas may be forced out.

在納戈爾諾-卡拉巴赫，新佔領地區的亞美尼亞族人可能被迫離開。

Some have already burned their homes before leaving. While Azeris who fled during the

一些人在離開前已經燒燬了自己的家園。而在戰爭期間逃離的阿澤里人，則已被燒燬。

previous war, could make their way back. Ultimately, the agreement does nothing to

前一場戰爭，可以讓他們回來。歸根結底，該協議並沒有起到任何作用。

end the hostility between the two countries. Until that happens, this conflict

結束兩國之間的敵對關係。在這之前，這場衝突

could have another round again.

可以再來一輪。

It is much more a deal than it is a peace.

這與其說是和平，不如說是一種交易。