Name: 人工智能會搶走人們的工作嗎？ | 奧巴馬和伊藤忠一｜第五集｜WIRED.jp (AIは人から仕事を奪うか？ | バラク・オバマ×伊藤穰一 | Ep5 | WIRED.jp)
Uploaded: 2020-11-30T20:10:35.000Z
Duration: 9 min 12 s

how we think about the interface between humans and machines, I think is something that I know Joyce thought a lot about This is where the idea of extended intelligence, uh, makes a lot of sense.

我們如何思考人類和機器之間的接口 我想這是我知道喬伊斯想了很多的東西 這就是擴展智能的想法，呃，很有意義。

程度副詞

Uh, it also is probably the better way of thinking about it for our economy and jobs, because people worry that Well, are we gonna get into a situation where the machines just doing everything and one of the promising aspects of AI, as it turns out that, for example, even in playing chess, right, a computer with a human oftentimes can do better, do better than just the computer.

呃，這也可能是我們經濟和就業的更好的思考方式，因為人們擔心，嗯，我們會不會進入一個機器只是做所有事情的情況，人工智能的一個有前途的方面，因為事實證明，例如，即使在下棋，對，計算機與人類通常可以做得更好，做得比只是計算機更好。

情態副詞

Well, think about that application broadly.

好吧，廣義地考慮一下這個應用。

Um, what we want to be able to do is develop systems that are open enough.

嗯，我們希望能夠做的是開發出足夠開放的系統。

Transparent enough that human judgment, human imagination, creativity are still intruding, are still active.

足夠透明，人的判斷力、人的想象力、創造力還在侵入，還在活動。

But a lot of the routine stuff as happening day today.

但今天發生了很多常規的事情。

And in some ways, that's just analogous toe.

而在某些方面，這只是類比腳趾。

Yeah, it's ah, it's an extension of our intelligence.

是啊，這是啊，這是我們智慧的延伸。

Um, but it's a simple enough one that doesn't feel is threatening as it does, partly because we understand exactly what's going on and with a lot of these systems you start losing track of What are they doing on?

嗯，但它是一個足夠簡單的一個 不覺得是威脅，因為它做的， 部分原因是我們確切地瞭解 什麼是怎麼回事，並與很多這些系統 你開始失去跟蹤 他們在做什麼？

You've been thinking about a lot for us to be successful in these areas.

你為了我們能在這些方面取得成功，想了很多。

We really have toe think through the economic implications.

我們真的要考慮一下經濟影響。

Because, um, most people aren't spending a lot of time right now worrying about singularity They are worrying about Wow, my job gonna be replaced by a machine.

因為，嗯，大多數人並沒有花很多時間 現在擔心奇點 他們擔心的是 哇，我的工作會被機器取代。

And you know, I tend to be on the optimistic side that historically we've absorbed new technologies on people find that new jobs were created, They migrate in.

你知道，我傾向於樂觀的一面，從歷史上看，我們已經吸收了新的技術，人們發現，新的就業機會被創造出來，他們移民。

I do think that we may be in a slightly different period now, simply because of the pervasive applicability of AI and other technologies where high skill folks do very well in this.

我確實認為，我們現在可能處於一個稍微不同的時期，只是因為人工智能和其他技術的普遍適用性，高技能的人在這方面做得非常好。

In these systems, they can leverage their talents.

在這些系統中，他們可以發揮自己的才能。

They can interface with machines to extend their reach.

它們可以與機器對接，以擴大其覆蓋面。

Their sales there products their services.

他們的銷售有產品他們的服務。

Low wage, low skill individuals big come more and more redundant, and their jobs may not be replaced, but wages are suppressed.

低工資、低技術的個人大來越來越多的冗餘，他們的工作可能不會被取代，但工資被壓低了。

And if we are going toe successfully manage this transition, we are going toe, have toe, have a societal conversation about, um, how do we manage that?

如果我們要成功地管理這個過渡， 我們要去，有趾，有一個社會對話 關於，嗯，我們如何管理？

How are we training on ensuring the economy's inclusive?

我們如何進行確保經濟包容性的培訓？

You know, if in fact, we're producing more than ever, but more and more of its going toe a small group at the top.

你知道，如果事實上，我們的產量比以往任何時候都要多，但越來越多的產量都流向了高層的小團體。

How do we make sure that folks have a living income?

What does it mean in terms of us supporting things like the arts or culture Or, uh, you know, making sure our veterans air getting cared for eso the social compact has to accommodate these new technologies, and our economic models have to accommodate them.

這對我們支持藝術或文化等方面意味著什麼 或者，你知道，確保我們的退伍軍人得到照顧 社會契約必須適應這些新技術，我們的經濟模式也必須適應它們。

The good news is that that's not gonna happen overnight.

好消息是，這不是一朝一夕的事。

If we're making good decisions now, then we can build the runways so that by the time AI is fully incorporated in tow, our economic life people welcome it as opposed to reject it.

如果我們現在做了很好的決定，那麼我們就可以建立跑道，這樣到人工智能完全納入拖，我們的經濟生活人們就會歡迎它而不是拒絕它。

And if we continue on current trends, you're going to continue to see these populist movements both on the left and right that believe that technology, globalization, ai, the the you know, guys who are off on their own.

如果我們繼續目前的趨勢， 你會繼續看到這些民粹主義運動 無論是在左派還是右派，相信技術， 全球化，AI，你知道，這些傢伙 誰是關閉自己的。

Uh, you know, starting a computer screen turn to figure this stuff out, that all of that is threatening to, um, the day to day lives of ordinary people and the values that they cherish and notions of community.

呃，你知道，開始一個電腦屏幕 轉身弄清楚這個東西， 這一切都威脅到，嗯， 每天的普通人的生活 和價值觀，他們珍惜 和社區的概念。

That starts with making sure the economy economic implications or worked at it Z actually, though non intuitive, which jobs get displaced?

這首先要確保經濟經濟影響或工作在它Z其實，雖然非直觀，但哪些工作會被取代？

Because I would bet that if you had a computer that understood the medical system and it was very good at diagnostics, the resident nurse or the pharmacist at least least likely to be, Oh, and maybe the amount of school they have to go to is just a community college and medical school.

因為我敢打賭，如果你有一臺瞭解醫療系統的電腦，而且它非常擅長診斷，住院護士或藥劑師最不可能是，哦，也許他們要去的學校數量只是一個社區大學和醫學院。

In my rule of thumb is if the person looks like they're doing work that a robot when a I could do, they're gonna be more likely displaced.

在我的經驗法則中，如果這個人看起來像在做機器人能做的工作，他們就更有可能被取代。

And there's actually a very high level jobs, maybe some categories of lawyers or auditors that might disappear.

而且其實還有一個很高的工作崗位，可能有些類別的律師或者審計師，可能會消失。

Whereas ah, lot of the service businesses Arts e think that things that involve things that computers just aren't well suited for, And I think Thio president Obama's point.

而很多服務行業的企業認為，涉及到計算機的事情並不適合，我想這是奧巴馬總統的觀點。

I think that we have some time and I don't know what you think about universal basic income, but e.

我想我們還有一些時間，我不知道你對全民基本收入有什麼看法，但e。

But as we start to see people getting displaced, there's also this.

但當我們開始看到人們流離失所的時候，還有這個。

This idea of work provides the structure for people.

這種工作理念為人們提供了結構。

And so can we look at other models, like academia or the arts, where people have purpose or or people who take care of kids at home?

那麼我們是否可以看看其他的模式，比如學術界或者藝術界，人們有目標或者或者在家裡照顧孩子的人？

And can we somehow because we don't calculate moms into GDP.

而我們能不能莫名其妙，因為我們沒有把媽媽們計算進GDP。

So So I think one of the problems is there's this general notion, sort of, on Wall Street.

所以我認為其中一個問題是，華爾街有一種普遍的觀念。

How can you be so smart in that money, right?

那筆錢你怎麼能這麼精明，對不對？

And and and and now, going into academia, I realized a lot of smart people with money, and so so So.

而和和現在，進入學術界，我才發現很多聰明的人，有錢的人，如此這般。

I think that also this ties into the values of society because as we start to see other work that may have actually viable work, it just isn't viewed, is working well, you're exactly right.

我覺得這也和社會的價值觀有關係，因為我們開始看到其他的工作，可能有實際可行的工作，只是不被人看好，工作得很好，你說得很對。

And that's what I mean by redesigning the social compact.

這就是我所說的重新設計社會契約的意思。

Now, whether ah universal income is the right model, is there gonna be accepted by a broad base of people, you know that that's a debate that we'll be having over the next 10 years, Next 20 years.

現在，是否啊全民收入 是正確的模式， 是有會被接受 由廣泛的基礎的人， 你知道，這是一個辯論 我們將有 在未來10年， 未來20年。

Um, and you're also right, that the jobs that are gonna be displaced by I or not just low skill service jobs.

嗯，你也是對的，那些會被我取代的工作，或者不僅僅是低技能的服務工作。

They might be high skilled jobs, but ones that are repeatable and computers can do.

這些工作可能是高技術含量的工作，但這些工作是可以重複的，計算機也可以做。

Um, what is indisputable, though, is that, um, as a I gets further incorporated, and, uh, the society potentially gets wealthier, that the link between production and distribution, how much you work and how much you make gets further and further attenuated because the computers were doing a lot of the work, and as a consequence, we then have to make some tougher decisions.

嗯，什麼是無可爭議的，雖然，是，嗯，隨著一個I得到進一步的整合，和，呃，社會潛在的財富，生產和分配之間的聯繫，你有多少工作，你賺多少錢得到進一步的減弱，因為電腦做了很多的工作，作為一個結果，我們就必須做出一些更艱難的決定。

It's just it's been so it's not as hyper charged as it's going to be.

只是它一直以來都是這樣的，所以它並不像要去的那麼亢奮。

We underpaid teachers, despite the fact that that's a really hard job.

我們給教師的工資過低，儘管那是一份非常辛苦的工作。

That's really hard for a computer to do well, to replace a really good teacher.

這對於一臺電腦來說，要想做好，取代一個真正的好老師，真的很難。

But we don't value teachers because it used to be primarily women's work or because, uh, it their whole host of reasons why we don't for us toe re examine what We value what we collectively are willing to pay for, whether it's teachers, nurses, AH, caregivers, moms, dads who stay at home artists, all the things that are incredibly valuable toe us.

但我們不重視教師，因為它過去主要是女性的工作，或者因為，呃，它的一系列原因，為什麼我們不為我們重新審視我們的價值，我們集體願意支付，無論是教師，護士，AH，護理人員，媽媽，爸爸誰留在家裡的藝術家，所有的事情，是令人難以置信的價值我們。

But right now don't rank high on the totem pole.

但現在在圖騰柱上的排名不高。

That's a conversation that we need to begin to have and enjoys identified.

這是我們需要開始進行的對話，並享受確定。

 I think they the ways in which this could be solved, but it's going to require, I think, a new way of thinking and and that's not gonna happen right away. 

我認為他們的方式 在這一點上可以解決， 但它將需要，我認為， 一個新的思維方式，而這不是要去發生的時候。