So everything you're about to hear as a massive fat Asterix next to it because we just can't be sure what's going to happen even in the short term.

所以你即將聽到的一切，都是一個巨大的胖胖的阿斯特里克斯在旁邊，因為我們就是不能確定會發生什麼，即使在短期內。

But we do know one thing.

但我們知道一件事。

We as a country are going to be borrowing a lot off money.

我們這個國家要借很多錢。

Firstly, because the economy has shrunk by 11% this year, that's the biggest for three centuries.

首先，因為今年經濟萎縮了11%，這是三個世紀以來最大的。

Take that in three centuries, since Queen Anne was on the throne.

自安妮女王登基以來，以三個世紀。

This is slightly different measure here, looking at the fall in GDP from the end of last year across countries, it puts us among the worst economic performance is you can see worse than France.

這裡面的衡量標準略有不同，從去年年底各國GDP的下降來看，它讓我們躋身於經濟表現最差的行列是你可以看到比法國更差。

Worse in Italy, worsen kind of Germany, the United States, Japan.

意大利更糟糕，德國、美國、日本的惡化種。

The attributes this partly to our speed in locking down on the length of time we were locked down.

這部分歸功於我們鎖定時間長短的速度。

For now, all of that has a cost which you can see in this graph.

目前，所有這些都是有成本的，你可以從這張圖中看到。

Here, this looks a bit more complicated, but effectively just shows where the O.

在這裡，這看起來有點複雜，但實際上只是顯示了O的位置。

B.

B.

R.

R.

Thinks our economy will go in the years to come.

認為我國經濟在未來幾年會走。

Anything below this line it's 100 here.

低於這條線的，這裡都是100。

The economy is gonna be smaller than when covert hit anything above that line.

經濟會比隱蔽打任何超過這條線的東西時要小。

It's bigger.

它更大。

This is their projection here, this yellow line.

這是他們在這裡的投影，這條黃線。

They think that our economy won't get back to where it was pre co vid before 2023.

他們認為我們的經濟不會在2023年之前恢復到金融危機前的狀態。

Worst case scenario.

最壞的情況。

That's this dash blue line here.

就是這條藍色的破折號。

It could be a way until 2026.

在2026年之前，這可能是一種方式。

On on top Off.

在上在下。

Allow that we are spending astronomic amounts on Kobe.

允許我們在科比身上花費天文數字。

This graph shows all the extra spending there's been totted up on covert this year.

這張圖顯示了今年所有額外的支出，有總計的祕密。

Each bar is based of the graph is basically each time the chancellor or a minister or prime minister has made a big covert spending announcement, and it has grown, as you can see, and it has grown and it has grown.

每一個條形的圖基本上都是每次大法官或者大臣、首相大肆宣佈隱蔽性的支出，大家可以看到，它的增長，它的增長，它的增長。

Government has spent 22 billion on track and trace alone.

政府僅在跟蹤和追蹤上就花了220億。

That's in there somewhere.

這是在那裡的某個地方。

Or, to put it another way, over half of the whole defense budget.

或者換一種說法，佔整個國防預算的一半以上。

The total for covert spending now stands at £291 billion or about 4300 for every single one of us.

現在祕密支出的總額為2910億英鎊，也就是我們每一個人約4300元。

That's the reason why the deficit is gonna be about 400 billion this year.

這就是為什麼今年的赤字會達到4000億左右的原因。

So on the face of it, you might well say that surely austerity lies ahead.

所以從表面上看，你很可能會說，肯定是緊縮政策在前面。

And that was certainly the impression the chancellor was giving.

而這無疑是大法官給人的印象。

And we'll get onto the short term specific specifics off that in a moment.

而我們將進入到短期的具體細節關閉，一會兒。

But actually, if the chancellor wanted to borrow even Mawr, then he probably could take a look at this graph here.

但其實，如果宰相想借連毛兒，那他大概可以看看這裡的這張圖。

This is the 10 year gilt yield UK government debt.

這是10年金邊收益率英國國債。

Basically, it's the cost for the UK to government to borrow money on the international money markets.

基本上，這是英國政府在國際貨幣市場上借錢的成本。

And as you can see on finance, it's deficit and it has never been lower.

而你在金融上可以看到，它是赤字，而且從來沒有低過。

It's now at the 100.2%.

現在已經達到了100.2%。

So once you take inflation into account, the government can basically borrow for less than nothing.

所以一旦考慮到通貨膨脹的因素，政府基本上可以借不到錢。

In fact, despite borrowing so much mawr, a combination of falling interest rates and the Bank of England quantitative easing program printing money effectively means that the cost for the government of servicing the debt, the OPR said today, is actually going to be lower than they thought it would be in March.

事實上，儘管借了這麼多毛，但利率下降和英國央行量化寬鬆計劃印鈔的組合，有效地意味著政府償還債務的成本，OPR今天表示，實際上要比他們3月份想象的要低。

Despite all the extra borrowing now, interest rates could rise in the future, but in the short term.

儘管現在多了很多借款，但未來利率可能會上升，但短期內。

There is absolutely no problem whatsoever in terms of the government financing its debts.

在政府舉債融資方面，絕對沒有任何問題。

But despite this, as I say, there were hints off belt tightening to come in this spending spending review Core departmental spending, minus Kobe is actually gonna be £10 billion less generous than the chancellor announced in March, so potential cuts to come.

但儘管如此，正如我所說的那樣，在這次支出支出審查中，有暗示關閉腰帶緊縮來的核心部門支出，減去科比實際上會比大法官在3月份宣佈的慷慨少100億英鎊，所以潛在的削減來。

There was no mention either of welfare, either.

也沒有提到福利，也。

Today in the spending review, Universal Credit was topped up by £20 a week when the pandemic hit.

今天在支出審查中，普惠制每週被補足20英鎊，當大流行。

The chancellor didn't say if that would be extended, and if not, that's gonna mean millions of families losing about £1000 a year at a time when the OPR says unemployment could hit two six million by mid 2021 finally public sector pay, the chancellor announced a partial spending a partial public pay freeze, excluding some NHS workers on low paid staff.

大臣沒有說是否會延長，如果不延長，那將意味著數百萬家庭每年損失約1000英鎊，當時OPR說失業率可能會在2021年中期達到兩個600萬最後公共部門的薪酬，大法官宣佈部分支出部分公共薪酬凍結，不包括一些NHS工人的低薪工作人員。

So the point is that although the government is spending a lot of money, much of it is going to be eaten up by co vid, so it isn't necessarily going to feel like it in the wider economy.

所以問題的關鍵是，雖然政府花了很多錢，但是很多錢會被co vid吃掉，所以在大的經濟中不一定會有這樣的感覺。

On any give from the chancellor will mean that we will be further in the red unless the economy recovers more quickly than we assume It felt today, as if the contours of the parliament were finally honing interview.

在大法官的任何給予將意味著我們將進一步處於紅色，除非經濟復甦比我們假設的更快它感覺今天，如果議會的輪廓終於磨練採訪。

And it will be dominated once more by questions of finance, debt and deficits and debate about actually how important, given the global macroeconomic context, any of those questions really are.

鑑於全球宏觀經濟背景，它將再次被金融、債務和赤字問題以及關於這些問題到底有多重要的辯論所主導。

Thanks, Lewis.

謝謝，劉易斯

So those are the numbers, the chances grappling with today.

所以這些都是今天的數字，機會爭奪。

He told us the choices he'd started to make with them.

他告訴我們，他已經開始和他們做出選擇。

Public sector workers outside of the NHS will see their pay frozen.

NHS以外的公共部門工作人員的工資將被凍結。

Ah, cut in real terms.

啊，切切實實的。

Pay on that cut in the foreign aid budget has caused stark divisions within the Conservative Party.

付上，對外援助預算的削減，在保守黨內引起了鮮明的分歧。

Already has today seem one minister resigned.

已經有今天看來一位部長辭職了。

Nick.

尼克

What has the latest on the political ramifications of today's announcement?

今天的公告在政治上有什麼最新的影響？

Tunic.

外衣。

Perhaps we should start with that 1922 committee of backbench Conservative MPs, all kicking off their Yes, I'm told.

也許我們應該從1922年那個後座保守黨議員的委員會開始，據說都在踢他們的是。

There was some tense moments of that meeting that was addressed virtually by Boris Johnson and Richie Soon, AC and conservative MPs who have concerns about co vid restrictions picked on that forecast by the Chancellor.

那次會議有一些緊張的時刻，由Boris Johnson和Richie Soon虛擬解決，AC和保守派議員對co vid限制有擔憂，他們挑起了大法官的那個預測。

Oven 11.3% contraction in the economy this year, and the reason why they did that was this report here by the Office for Budget Responsibility.

爐今年經濟收縮11.3%，他們之所以這樣做，是預算責任辦公室在這裡的這份報告。

That is their central assessment of what could happen this year on that makes assumptions on what happens with co vid, so it assumes that there is hi to medium restrictions.

這是他們對今年可能發生的事情進行的中心評估，對co vid的情況做出了假設，所以它假設有嗨到中等的限制。

It then assumes that vaccines will not be widely available until mid 2021 on DSO Mark Harper, the former conservative government chief whip who is now head of this Corona virus recovery group.

然後，它假設疫苗要到2021年年中才會在DSO馬克-哈珀（Mark Harper）身上廣泛使用，他是前保守派政府的首席鞭子，現在是這個科羅娜病毒恢復小組的負責人。

He then said, This suggests that these restrictions are gonna go far, far longer than you are suggesting.

他接著說，這說明這些限制要比你建議的時間長得多，長得多。

Prime Minister Boris Johnson told the meeting that you shouldn't sort of read too much into that.

總理鮑里斯-約翰遜在會議上說，你不應該對這一點有太多的解讀。

But the government will tomorrow outline which parts of England will go into these new three tiers on, Boris Johnson said to that meeting, folks, I'm afraid the tearing tomorrow will be tough on.

但政府將在明天勾勒出英格蘭哪些地方會進入這新的三個層級上，鮑里斯-約翰遜在那次會議上說，各位，恐怕明天的撕逼會很艱難。

Some conservative MPs were guided that nowhere in England will go into the more benign Tier one interesting s 02 and three and those announcements on the geography will come tomorrow.

一些保守派議員被引導，英格蘭的任何地方都不會進入更良性的第一層有趣的s 02和三，這些關於地理的公告將在明天。

Today, response to the spending review.

今天，針對支出審查。

What's that been like, well, riel anger from the one nation conservative wing of the party at that cut in the international A budget.

那是什麼樣子的，好吧，里爾憤怒從一個國家的保守黨派對國際A預算的那次削減。

But for the chancellor's overall approach, which is, we need to continue providing state support.

但對於大法官的整體方針，也就是我們需要繼續提供國家支持。

But we do need to signal that eventually we will have to deal with the debt.

但我們確實需要發出信號，最終我們將不得不處理債務問題。

There was overall support for that.

這一點得到了總體支持。

I spoke to one grandee who said to me they thought it was a rather skillful statement by the chancellor.

我和一位老爺子談過，他對我說，他們認為宰相的發言相當有技巧。

But I spoke to one ally of Boris Johnson who's on the right of the party, and this person said to me, We won a general election by criticizing Jeremy Corbyn for his magic money tree.

但我和鮑里斯-約翰遜的一位盟友談過，他是黨內的右派，這個人對我說，我們通過批評傑里米-科爾賓的神奇搖錢樹來贏得大選。

It turns out that we found a magic money forest.

原來，我們發現了一片神奇的金錢林。

So I've been looking at the political calculations behind today's spending review.

所以我一直在研究今天的支出審查背後的政治計算。

E believe everybody.

相信大家。

How do you How do you How do you do?

你怎麼做你怎麼做？

Fantastic newfound friends.

神奇的新發現的朋友。

We want to unite and level up the country.

我們要團結起來，把國家搞上去。

A commitment made a reward in the ballot box on a year later, Rishi Soon AC delivers for those Redwall voters with a £4 billion leveling up fund chancellor almost exactly the amount saved by cutting the aid budget from 0.7% of national income to 0.5%.

在一年後的投票箱中做出的承諾獎勵，日日順AC為這些紅牆選民提供了40億英鎊的平整基金大法官幾乎完全是通過將援助預算從國民收入的0.7％削減到0.5％而節省的金額。

A big step, which broke a manifesto pledge during a domestic fiscal emergency when we need to prioritize our limited resources on jobs and public services.

一大步，在國內財政緊急狀態下，當我們需要將有限的資源優先用於就業和公共服務時，這打破了宣言承諾。

Sticking rigidly to spending 0.7% of our national income on overseas aid is difficult to justify to the British people, especially when we're seeing the highest peacetime levels of borrowing on record.

僵硬地將國民收入的0.7%用於海外援助是很難向英國人民證明的，尤其是當我們看到有史以來最高的和平時期借款水準時。

A gently worded but unmistakable jettisoning of a landmark Tory pledge by the ever polished chancellor who showed he has a tough political edge.

一位措辭溫和但毫不含糊的大法官拋棄了保守黨的一個里程碑式的承諾，他顯示出他具有強硬的政治優勢。

The next general election is never far from.

下一次大選永遠不會遙遠。

Richie Soon acts mind as he held firm with the Conservatives, new Redwall voters with that cut in the aid budget that is unlikely to be mourned in the party's new seats but was deplored by more traditional one nation conservatives.

Richie Soon行為頭腦，因為他與保守黨，新的紅牆選民堅定地保持著那份援助預算的削減，這不太可能在黨的新席位中受到哀悼，但被更傳統的一個國家保守派所痛惜。

Well, it's a year since our manifesto was launched, and I think today we heard in the spending review the scale of the economic challenge and the chancellor is having to deal with very difficult circumstances, and I think in that circumstance he managed to stick to our manifesto very, very well but there was one pledged that he broke and that was our pledge to the world's poorest.

我們的宣言已經發布一年了，我想今天我們在支出審查中聽到了經濟挑戰的規模，總理不得不應對非常困難的情況，我想在這種情況下，他設法非常非常好地堅持我們的宣言，但有一個承諾他打破了，那就是我們對世界上最貧窮的人的承諾。

And obviously I feel personally ashamed.

很明顯，我個人覺得很慚愧。

Having seen the good that aid does in the world, that that should be the first manifesto pledge the government chooses to break.

在看到援助在世界上的好處後，這應該是政府選擇打破的第一個宣言承諾。

A veteran Tory understands the decision.

一個老牌托利黨人明白這個決定。

I recognize that we do a lot of good with our aid budget and I share some of the concerns of my colleagues.

我認識到，我們在援助預算方面做了很多有益的工作，我也有一些同事的關切。

But the reality is we're asking the general public here and my constituents and those up and down the country to make great sacrifices.

但現實是，我們要求這裡的普通民眾和我的選民以及全國上下的選民做出巨大的犧牲。

And I think that when we're asking them for those sacrifices, I think they will expect.

我想，當我們要求他們做出這些犧牲時，我想他們會期望。

And I know they will expect from talking to them and from my inbox that you know the cuts, our across the board Labor believes the chancellor has made a big mistake.

我知道他們會期望從與他們的談話和我的收件箱中，你知道削減，我們的整個工黨認為總理犯了一個大錯誤。

This is a really shameful day, a shameful day for Britain in the world, but a shameful day for the Tories.

這真是可恥的一天，是英國在世界上可恥的一天，但卻是保守黨可恥的一天。

They've got their own back benchers speaking out about it.

他們已經讓自己的後輩們說出了這件事。

Even the Archbishop of Canterbury has said how shameful this is, but look what they have done at a time off this pandemic.

連坎特伯雷大主教都說這是多麼可恥的事，但看看他們在這次大流行的時候做了什麼。

But this pandemic has shown how interconnected we are as a world.

但這次大流行表明，我們這個世界是多麼的相互聯繫。

The vulnerabilities that we all face the interconnected nature of that to cut the aid budget at that time is deeply damaging and deeply shameful.

我們所有人都面臨著相互關聯的脆弱性，當時削減援助預算是極具破壞性的，也是非常可恥的。

E screw this up a rare moment of doubt from a supremely confident politician but no personal doubts about the political decisions made today perfect.

E搞砸了這個難得的時刻，一個極度自信的政治家的懷疑，但沒有個人懷疑今天做出的政治決定完美。