In the early months of the pandemic,

在大流行的最初幾個月。

chef José Andrés circulated two photos

廚師何塞-安德烈斯傳出兩張照片。

that have come to symbolize a modern American food crisis.

已經成為現代美國糧食危機的象徵。

The first shows mountains of potatoes

第一張是洋芋山

that have been left to rot in a field in Idaho.

在愛達荷州的田野裡腐爛。

The restaurants and cafeterias and stadiums that had consumed them

消費過的餐廳、食堂和體育場館。

were shuttered during the pandemic.

疫情期間被關閉。

The second shows a devastating scene outside of the San Antonio food bank.

第二張是聖安東尼奧食物銀行外的破壞性場景。

Thousands of carloads of people lined up,

數千車人排隊。

waiting for food with not enough supply to go around.

等著吃，卻沒有足夠的供應。

"How is it possible these two photos exist at the same time,

"這兩張照片怎麼可能同時存在。

in the most prosperous

盛極一時

and technologically advanced moment in our history," tweeted Andrés.

和技術先進的時刻，我們的歷史，"推特上的安德烈斯。

In the months after the photos were published,

在照片發表後的幾個月裡。

the crisis got worse.

危機變得更糟。

Billions of pounds of potatoes and other fresh produce

數十億磅的洋芋和其他新鮮產品

were chucked by American farmers.

被美國農民攆走了。

At the same time,

同時。

food banks all over the country were reporting demand increases

全國各地的食物銀行都報告說需求增加了。

and 40 percent were facing critical shortfalls.

和40%面臨嚴重不足。

Outside the US,

在美國之外。

especially in the Middle East and throughout Southeastern Africa,

特別是在中東和整個東南部非洲，

COVID-19 was paralyzing food systems that were already vulnerable.

COVID-19使本來就脆弱的糧食系統陷入癱瘓。

Oxfam has predicted that by the end of 2020

牛津救濟會預計，到2020年底

12,000 people per day could die of hunger related to COVID.

每天可能有12000人死於與COVID有關的飢餓。

That's more than the highest daily mortality rate

這比最高的日死亡率還要高。

recorded so far.

迄今為止，記錄。

But what's worse

但更糟糕的是

and what's much more concerning to all of us

更加關乎我們大家的是什麼？

is that COVID is just one of many major disruptions

是，COVID只是眾多重大幹擾之一。

that have been predicted

預測的

in the years and decades ahead.

在未來的幾年和幾十年裡。

More chronic and complex than the pressures of COVID

比COVID的壓力更為長期和複雜。

are the pressures of climate change.

是氣候變化的壓力。

And those of you who live in California have seen this on your farms.

而那些住在加州的人，在你們的農場裡也看到了這種情況。

You've seen withering heat and drought and fires

你見過酷暑、乾旱和火災。

disrupt avocado and almond and citrus and strawberry farms.

破壞牛油果、杏仁、柑橘和草莓農場。

This summer, we saw the devastating impacts of storms

今年夏天，我們看到了風暴的破壞性影響。

on corn and soy farms.

玉米和大豆農場上。

I've seen the various pressures of drought,

我見過乾旱的各種壓力。

heat, flooding, superstorms,

熱、洪水、超級風暴。

invasive insects, bacterial blight,

入侵性昆蟲、細菌性枯萎病。

shifting seasons and weather volatility

季節性和天氣波動

from Washington to Florida,

從華盛頓到佛羅里達

and from Guatemala to Australia.

並從瓜地馬拉到澳洲。

The upshot is this.

結果是這樣的。

Climate change is becoming something we can taste.

氣候變化正在成為我們可以品嚐的東西。

This is a kitchen-table issue in the literal sense.

這是一個字面意義上的餐桌問題。

The International Panel on Climate Change

國際氣候變化小組

has predicted that by mid-century

據預測，到本世紀中葉

the world may reach a threshold of global warming

世界可能達到全球變暖的臨界點。

beyond which current agricultural practices

耕作方式的影響

can no longer support large human civilizations.

不能再支持大型的人類文明。

The USDA scientist Jerry Hatfield put it to me this way:

美國農業部的科學家Jerry Hatfield這樣對我說。

the single biggest threat of climate change

氣候變化的最大威脅

is the collapse of food systems.

是糧食系統的崩潰。

The reality we face,

我們面臨的現實。

one that was exposed by those mountains of potatoes

暴露在洋芋山下的那一個

and the cars lined up during the pandemic,

以及大流行期間排隊的汽車。

is that our supply chains are antiquated.

是我們的供應鏈已經過時了。

Our food systems have not been designed

我們的食物系統並沒有被設計成

to adapt to major disruptions or preempt them.

適應重大幹擾或先發制人。

Addressing this challenge as much as any other

應對這一挑戰與應對任何其他挑戰一樣重要

is going to define our progress in the coming century.

將決定我們在下個世紀的進步。

But there's good news.

但也有好消息。

And the good news is that farmers and entrepreneurs and academics

而好消息是，農民和企業家以及學者們

are radically rethinking national and global food systems.

正在從根本上重新思考國家和全球糧食系統。

They are marrying principles of old-world agroecology

他們正在結合舊世界的農業生態學原則。

and state-of-the-art technologies

和最先進的技術

to create what I call a third way to our food future.

以創造我所說的第三條通往我們食物未來的道路。

We're going to see radical changes

我們將看到徹底的改變

in what we grow and how we eat in the coming decades,

在未來幾十年裡，我們的種植和飲食方式都會發生變化。

as these environmental and population

因為這些環境和人口

and public health pressures intensify.

和公共衛生壓力加劇。

I studied these changes for my book "The Fate of Food:

我為我的《食物的命運》一書研究了這些變化。

What We'll Eat in a Bigger, Hotter, Smarter World."

在一個更大、更熱、更智能的世界裡，我們會吃什麼。"

I traveled for five years into the lands and the minds

我旅行了五年，進入了土地和思想。

and the machines that are shaping the future of food.

以及正在塑造未來食品的機器。

My travels took me through 15 countries and 18 states,

我的旅行經歷了15個國家和18個州。

from apple orchards in Wisconsin to tiny cornfields in Kenya,

從威斯康星州的蘋果園到肯亞的小玉米田。

to massive Norwegian fish farms

挪威大規模養魚場

and computerized foodscapes in Shanghai.

和上海的計算機化菜場。

I investigated new ideas,

我調查了新的想法。

like robotics and CRISPR and vertical farms.

比如機器人和CRISPR以及垂直農場。

And old ideas, like edible insects and permaculture and ancient plants.

還有老觀念，比如食用昆蟲、養生、古植物。

I began to see the emergence of this third way to food production.

我開始看到這第三種糧食生產方式的出現。

A synthesis of the traditional and the radically new.

傳統與全新的綜合體。

There's a growing controversy

爭議越來越大

about the best path to future food security in the US.

關於美國未來糧食安全的最佳路徑。

Food is ripe for reinvention, Bill Gates has proclaimed.

比爾-蓋茨曾宣稱，食品的再創造已經成熟。

Huge flows of investment

大量投資流動

are funding new methods of climate-smart and high-tech agriculture.

正在資助氣候智能型和高科技農業的新方法；

But many sustainable food advocates bristle at this idea of reinvention.

但許多可持續食品的倡導者對這種重塑的想法嗤之以鼻。

They want food deinvented.

他們想讓食物去發明。

They argue for a return to preindustrial

他們主張恢復到工業化前的狀態。

and pre-green revolution,

和綠色革命前。

biodynamic and organic farming.

生物動力和有機農業；

To which skeptics inevitably respond,

對此，懷疑論者不可避免地做出了迴應。

"Nice, but does it scale?

"不錯，但它有規模嗎？

Sure, a return to traditional farming methods

當然，迴歸傳統的耕作方式

could produce better food,

可以生產更好的食物。

but can it produce enough food that's affordable?"

但它能不能生產出足夠多的糧食，讓人負擔得起？"

The rift between the reinvention camp and the deinvention camp

重塑陣營與非重塑陣營之間的裂痕。

has existed for decades.

已經存在了幾十年。

But now it's a raging battle.

但現在卻是戰火紛飛。

One side covets the past,

一邊貪戀過去。

the other side covets the future

覬覦未來

and as someone observing this from the outside,

而作為一個從外面觀察到這一點的人。

I began to wonder, why must it be so binary?

我開始疑惑，為什麼一定要這麼二進制？

Can't there be a synthesis of the two approaches?

就不能把這兩種方法綜合起來嗎？

Our challenge is to borrow from the wisdom of the ages,

我們的挑戰是借用時代的智慧。

and from our most advanced science,

並從我們最先進的科學。

to forge this third way.

來鍛造這第三條路。

One that allows us to improve and scale our harvests,

一個可以讓我們改善和擴大收穫的。

while restoring rather than degrading

同時恢復而不是降低

the underlying web of life.

生活的底層網絡。

I belong to neither camp.

我不屬於任何一個陣營。

I'm a failed vegan and a lapsed vegetarian,

我是一個失敗的素食主義者，也是一個失敗的素食主義者。

and a terrible backyard farmer.

和一個可怕的後院農夫。

If I'm honest,

如果我是誠實的。

I will keep trying at this, but I may fail.

我會繼續努力，但我可能會失敗。

But I'm hell-bent on hope,

但我一心想著希望。

and if my travels have taught me anything,

如果我的旅行教會了我什麼，

it's that there's good reason for hope.

是有充分的理由希望。

Plenty of solutions are merging

大量的解決方案正在合併

that can help build sustainable, resilient food systems.

可幫助建立可持續、有復原力的糧食系統。

Even if we can't rely on a critical mass

即使我們不能依靠一個臨界點。

of backyard-farming vegetarians to do this on their own,

的後院養殖素食者自己做。

from the ground up.

從根本上。

Let's start with artificial intelligence and robotics.

先說說人工智能和機器人吧。

Jorge Heraud is a Peruvian-born engineer

Jorge Heraud是祕魯出生的工程師。

who now lives in Silicon Valley,

現居硅谷的他。

and his company developed a robotic weeder named See and Spray,

和他的公司開發了一個名為See和Spray的機器人織機。

and I went to Arkansas to see the maiden voyage of See and Spray.

我去阿肯色州看了 "See and Spray "號的處女航。

And I was half expecting a battalion of C3PO-style robots

我還以為是C3PO式的機器人大隊呢

to march into the fields with pincer hands to pluck the weeds.

用鉗子手行進到田裡拔草。

And instead, I found this.

而我卻發現了這個。

A tractor with a big, white hoop skirt off the back of it.

一輛拖拉機，後面脫了個大白圈裙。

And inside that hoop skirt are 24 cameras

而那條環形裙裡面有24個攝像頭

that use computer vision to see the ground beneath

利用計算機視覺來觀察地下的地面。

and to distinguish between the plants and the weeds.

並區分植物和雜草。

And to deploy with sniper-like precision

並以狙擊手般的精準度進行部署

these tiny jets of concentrated fertilizer,

這些微小的濃縮肥料的噴射。

or herbicide,

或除草劑。

that incinerate the baby weeds.

焚燒嬰兒雜草的。

I learned how robotics can end the practice

我知道了機器人技術如何結束實踐

of broadcast spraying chemicals across millions of acres of land

在數百萬英畝土地上廣播噴灑化學藥劑的情況。

and how we can reduce the use of herbicides

以及我們如何減少除草劑的使用。

by up to 90 percent.

高達90%。

But the bigger picture is even more exciting.

但更大的格局更讓人興奮。

Intelligent machines can treat plants individually,

智能機器可以單獨處理植物。

applying not just herbicides

不僅僅是使用除草劑

but fungicides and insecticides

但殺真菌和殺蟲劑

and fertilizers on a plant-by-plant, rather than field-by-field basis.

和肥料，而不是逐個田塊進行。

So that eventually,

所以，最終。

this kind of hyperspecific farming

這種超特異性農作

can allow for more diversity and intercropping on fields.

可以使田地更加多樣化和互作。

And big farms can begin to mimic natural systems

而大農場可以開始模仿自然系統

and improve soil health.

並改善土壤健康狀況。

Heraud is the embodiment of third-way thinking, right?

赫拉德是第三種思維的體現吧？

Robots, he told me,

他告訴我，機器人。

don't have to remove us from nature,

不需要把我們從自然界中移除。

they can bring us closer to it, they can restore it.

他們可以讓我們更接近它， 他們可以恢復它。

Increasing crop diversity will be crucial

增加作物多樣性將是至關重要的

to building resilient food systems.

建立有彈性的糧食系統。

And so will decentralizing agriculture

農業的分散化也將如此

so that when farmers in one region are disrupted,

以便當一個地區的農民受到干擾時。

the others around, they can keep growing.

周圍的其他人，他們可以繼續成長。

The rise of vertical farms,

垂直農場的興起。

like this farm, built inside a former steel mill in Newark, New Jersey,

像這個農場，建在新澤西州紐瓦克的一個前鋼鐵廠內。

can play a key role in decentralizing agriculture.

可以在農業分散化方面發揮關鍵作用。

Aeroponic farms use a tiny fraction

氣耕農場只用了極小的一部分。

of the water that is used in in-ground farms.

地養殖場用水的比例。

And they can grow food much faster, about 40 percent faster.

而且它們種植糧食的速度更快，大約快40%。

And when located in and near cities,

而當位於城市及附近的。

where the food is consumed,

食的地方。

they eliminate a huge amount of trucking and food waste.

他們消除了大量的卡車運輸和食物浪費。

It struck me at first as creepy

我一開始覺得很詭異。

in kind of a "Silent Running" way

沉默的奔跑

that we'd be growing our future fruits and vegetables

我們將在未來的水果和蔬菜的種植。

inside, without soil or sun.

內，沒有土壤和陽光。

And after weeks of spending time in these plant factories,

而在這些工廠工廠裡呆了幾個星期後。

I began to see it as oddly, almost perfectly natural

我開始覺得這很奇怪，幾乎是很自然的事。

to deliver the plants only and exactly what they need,

只為植物提供它們所需要的東西。

with zero herbicides and radical efficiency.

具有零除草劑和根本效率。

Here again, we see innovators borrowing from,

在這裡，我們又看到了創新者的借鏡。

and perhaps even elevating the wisdom of natural ecosystems.

甚至可能提升自然生態系統的智慧。

Developments in plant-based and alternative meats

植物性肉類和替代性肉類的發展情況

are also profoundly hopeful.

也是深刻的希望。

And they follow a similar trend

而它們也遵循著類似的趨勢

toward local, resilient, low-carbon protein production.

朝著在地的、有彈性的、低碳的蛋白質生產方向發展。

Consumers are excited about this,

消費者對此很興奮。

and during the pandemic,

和大流行期間。

we've seen a 250 percent increase

我們已經看到了250%的增長

in demand for alternative meats.

對替代肉類的需求。

A study by the Journal of Clinical Nutrition

臨床營養學雜誌》的一項研究

found that the participants who were eating the plant-based proteins

發現食用植物性蛋白質的參與者。

saw a drop in their cholesterol levels,

看到他們的膽固醇水準下降。

in their weight

重量上

and eventually, a drop in their risk of heart disease.

並最終使其患心臟病的風險下降。

The potential environmental benefits of plant-based meats are astounding.

植物性肉類的潛在環境效益是驚人的。

And there's even potential in lab-grown or cell-based meats.

而在實驗室種植的肉類或基於細胞的肉類中，甚至還有潛力。

Uma Valeti fed me my first plate of lab-grown duck breast,

烏瑪-瓦力提餵我吃了第一盤實驗室長大的鴨胸肉。

harvested fresh from a bioreactor.

從生物反應器中新鮮收穫。

It had been grown from a small sampling of cells

它是從一小部分細胞中生長出來的。

taken from muscle tissue and fat and connective tissues,

取自肌肉組織和脂肪及結締組織。

which is exactly what we eat when we eat meat.

這正是我們吃肉時吃的東西。

This lab-grown or cell-based duck meat

這種實驗室培養的鴨肉或細胞型鴨肉。

has very little threat of bacterial contamination,

細菌汙染的威脅非常小。

it's about 85 percent lower CO2 emissions associated with it.

與之相關的二氧化碳排放量降低了85%左右。

Eventually it can be grown

最終，它可以成長為

like those crops inside vertical farms in decentralized facilities

就像那些分散的垂直農場內的農作物一樣。

that aren't vulnerable to supply-chain disruptions.

不容易受到供應鏈中斷的影響。

Valeti started out as a cardiologist,

瓦萊蒂是以心臟科醫生起家的。

who understood that doctors have been developing

誰明白醫生一直在發展

human and animal tissues in laboratories for decades.

人類和動物組織在實驗室中的幾十年。

He was inspired as much by that

他的靈感也是如此

as he was by a 1931 quote from Winston Churchill that says,

因為他被1931年溫斯頓-丘吉爾的一句話說：。

"We shall escape the absurdity of growing the whole chicken

"我們將擺脫整隻雞生長的荒謬性

in order to eat the breast or the wing,

為了吃胸脯或翅膀。

by growing them separately in suitable mediums."

通過在合適的介質中分別種植它們"。

Like Heraud, Valeti is a quintessential third-way thinker.

和赫拉德一樣，瓦萊蒂也是典型的第三條道路的思考者。

He's reimagined an old idea using new technology,

他用新技術重塑了一個古老的想法。

to usher in a solution whose time has come.

迎來一個時代已經到來的解決方案。

I've met with dozens of farmers and entrepreneurs and engineers

我見過幾十個農民、企業家和工程師。

who emulate third-way thinking, all over the world.

模仿三觀的人，在全世界範圍內。

They're using modern breeding tools like CRISPR

他們正在使用CRISPR等現代育種工具。

to develop nutritious heirloom crops that can withstand drought and heat.

以發展營養豐富、耐旱耐熱的傳家寶作物。

They're using AI to make aquaculture sustainable.

他們正在利用人工智能來實現水產養殖的可持續發展。

They're finding ways to eliminate food waste.

他們正在想辦法消除食物浪費。

They are scaling up

他們正在擴大規模

conservation agriculture and managed grazing.

保護性農業和管理性放牧；

And they're reviving ancient plants,

而且他們正在復興古老的植物。

and they're recycling sewage and gray water

他們在回收汙水和灰水

to develop a drought-proof water supply.

以發展抗旱供水。

The upshot is this:

結果是這樣的。

Human innovation that marries old and new approaches to food production

將新舊糧食生產方式相結合的人類創新；

can, and I believe, will usher in this third way