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  • Should you invest in real estate now?!

    你現在應該投資房地產嗎!?

  • If you turn on the news, besides the pandemic, everyone is talking about the housing bubble.

    如果你打開新聞,除了流行病,大家都在談論房地產保麗龍。

  • Experts are warning that the housing market will crash in 2021.

    專家警告,2021年房市將崩盤。

  • And as a piece of evidence they bring the example of the 2008 crash that 2020 is following

    而作為一個證據,他們帶來的例子是2008年的股災,2020年也是如此

  • the exact same patterns so the housing market should crash again next year.

    完全相同的模式,所以明年房市應該會再次崩盤。

  • And this is pretty interesting because if we are in a bubble that will burst next year,

    而這很有意思,因為如果我們處於保麗龍中,明年就會破滅。

  • it will present a golden opportunity for a lot of people to jump in and make a fortune

    這將為很多人提供一個黃金機會,讓他們跳進去發財。

  • because a housing bubble means that houses will be sold at a fraction of their real price

    因為房屋保麗龍意味著房屋將以低於實際價格的價格出售

  • once the bubble burst.

    一旦保麗龍破裂。

  • Imagine at $200,000 home that you wanted to buy is suddenly on sale for 70 or $80,000

    想象一下,你想買的20萬的房子突然以7、8萬的價格出售了

  • and interest rates are so low that you can get it immediately if you can make the downpayment.

    而且利率很低,只要你能付得起首付,馬上就能拿到。

  • Doesn't that sounds like a golden opportunity?

    這聽起來不就是一個黃金機會嗎?

  • Everyone likes investing in real state because for some weird reason we believe that real

    每個人都喜歡投資於真實的狀態,因為一些奇怪的原因,我們相信,真正的。

  • estate prices will always rise however we have seen countless times that's not the case

    物以稀為貴,人以群分

  • and house prices can actually drop.

    而房價其實是可以下降的。

  • To figure out if investing in a real state now is a good idea or not we have to understand

    要想弄清楚現在投資一個真實的狀態到底好不好,我們必須瞭解

  • a few things.

    有幾件事。

  • Do home prices always rise?

    房價總是上漲嗎?

  • How housing bubbles area created?

    房產保麗龍是如何產生的?

  • And finally when exactly the market will crash?

    最後市場到底什麼時候會崩盤?

  • Before we move on.

    在我們繼續前。

  • I want to take a moment and thank our sponsors - Skillshare.

    我想花點時間,感謝我們的贊助商--技能共享。

  • If you want to learn how to analyze companies like professional investors and find out if

    如果你想學習如何像專業投資人一樣分析公司,並瞭解是否有

  • a certain company is a good investment or not.

    某公司是否是好的投資。

  • You have to take this course by Skillshare because it will teach everything a professional

    你必須採取技能共享的這門課程,因為它將教一個專業的一切。

  • investor uses to value a company.

    投資者用於評估公司價值。

  • And it is taught by Business Casual ( the YouTube channel you probably know).

    而它是由Business Casual(你可能知道的YouTube頻道)教授的。

  • I have taken the course!

    我已經參加了課程!

  • Its short, animated, and worth your time

    其短小精悍的動畫,值得你花時間。

  • Skillshare is an online learning community for creatives, where millions come together

    Skillshare是一個創意者的在線學習社區,數以百萬計的人聚集在這裡。

  • to take the next step in their creative journey.

    以期在他們的創意旅程中邁出下一步。

  • Skillshare offers thousands of inspiring classes for creative and curious people, on topics

    Skillshare為有創造力和好奇心的人提供了數以千計的鼓舞人心的課程,主題包括

  • including illustration, design, photography, video, freelancing, and more.

    包括插畫、設計、攝影、視頻、自由職業等。

  • And all that is for less than dollars a month with an annual subscription.

    而這些都是每月不到美元的年費。

  • But because you guys are the best audience in the entire youtube,

    但因為你們是整個youtube最好的觀眾。

  • The first 1000 people who click the link in my description, will get a free trial of Skillshare

    前1000人誰點擊我的描述中的鏈接,將得到一個免費試用的技能共享。

  • premium.

    溢價。

  • By the way, you will be supporting the channel by signing out to Skillshare.

    對了,你簽到技能共享,就是對頻道的支持。

  • And now lets get back to the video.

    現在讓我們回到視頻。

  • The 2008 Crash - The mother of Housing Bubbles

    2008年的崩盤--房屋保麗龍之母。

  • One of the tools the fed has at its disposal to control the economy is the interest rate.

    美聯儲控制經濟的工具之一就是利率。

  • When the economy is rising too fast, the government intervenes and raises interest rates to stop

    當經濟上升速度過快時,政府就會進行干預,提高利率來阻止

  • the flow of capital into the market so that the economy doesn't turns into a bubble,

    資本流入市場,使經濟不至於變成保麗龍。

  • because high interest rates means borrowing money becomes expensive which means less people

    因為高利率意味著借錢變得昂貴,這意味著更少的人。

  • would borrow money which will result in less spending.

    會借錢,這將導致支出減少。

  • And vice versa.

    反之亦然。

  • Thats known as Monetary policy.

    這就是所謂的貨幣政策。

  • So back in 2000s, when the dot com bubble burst, the stock market lost almost 5 trillion

    所以早在2000年,網絡保麗龍破滅的時候,股市就損失了近5萬億。

  • dollars of market cap, the economy was in a recession, so the fed lowered interest rates,

    美元的市值,經濟處於衰退期,所以美聯儲降低了利率。

  • From around 3 percent to 2.5 then to 2 percent all the way down to a little over 1 percent

    從3%左右到2.5%再到2%,一直到1%多一點。

  • to encourage everyone to borrow money and spend in order to get back the economy on

    鼓勵大家借錢消費,以使經濟恢復正常。

  • its knees.

    它的膝蓋。

  • And it worked, by 2003 the economy began recovering, by 2006, the stock market reached its pre

    而且它的工作,2003年經濟開始復甦,到2006年,股市達到了它的前

  • dot com crash level.

    點網的崩潰程度。

  • But low interest rates means low rate of return on government bond and interest on fixed despots.

    但低利率意味著政府債券的低收益率和定投的利息。

  • It no longer made sense for investors to buy government bonds or keep their pile of cash

    對投資者來說,購買政府債券或留著一堆現金已經沒有意義了

  • in the banks since inflation would slowly eat it away especially when a few years ago,

    在銀行裡,因為通貨膨脹會慢慢吞噬它,特別是當幾年前。

  • they made unbeliever returns during the dot com bubble, the s&p500 rose by over 400 percent

    他們在網絡保麗龍期間獲得了難以置信的回報,標準普爾500指數漲幅超過400%。

  • from 1995 to 2000.

    從1995年到2000年。

  • So investors were looking for a new opportunity, a safe and rising investment to throw their

    於是,投資者們都在尋找一個新的機會,一個安全而又上升的投資項目,以投

  • money at and real estate seemed like a great idea, but investor don't have the time to

    在和房地產的錢似乎是一個偉大的想法,但投資者沒有時間來

  • deal with individual buyers so financial institutions came with a brilliant idea.

    與個人買家打交道,所以金融機構想出了一個好主意。

  • Since interest rates were so low, everyone was buying a house, so financial institutions

    由於利率太低,大家都在買房,所以金融機構

  • would take these mortgages, bundle them together and sell them to investors in forms of shares.

    會把這些抵押貸款,捆綁在一起,以股票的形式賣給投資者。

  • These investments [proved to be really great, but banks run out of financially responsible

    這些投資[事實證明真的很好,但銀行跑出來的財務負責任的

  • people to loan mortgages but investors still wanted to buy these investments.

    人進行抵押貸款,但投資者仍想購買這些投資。

  • So banks started giving subprime mortgages or mortgages to people with really low credit

    所以銀行開始給次貸或抵押貸款給信用真的很低的人。

  • scores, people didn't necessarily have enough income to keep making the mortgage payments.

    分,人們不一定有足夠的收入來繼續支付按揭貸款。

  • Why?

    為什麼?

  • Because they would take these mortgages, bundle them together and sell them to investors.

    因為他們會把這些抵押貸款,捆綁在一起,賣給投資者。

  • Low interest rates and rising home prices kept attracting more and more investors.

    低利率和房價上漲不斷吸引著越來越多的投資者。

  • The reason why these investments appeared so seductive is because the investors argued

    這些投資之所以顯得如此誘人,是因為投資人認為:1.

  • that, even if they would default on their loan, its not a big deal, the bank can get

    即使他們會拖欠貸款,也沒什麼大不了的,銀行可以得到。

  • back the house and sell it and since home prices were rising, they would still make

    的房子,並將其出售,由於房價上漲,他們仍然會賺取。

  • a profit, it seemed like the perfect investment.

    盈利,這似乎是一個完美的投資。

  • So the banks gave mortgages to everyone, that inflated home prices to unbelievable heights,

    所以銀行給大家提供了抵押貸款,這讓房價膨脹到不可思議的高度。

  • but at some point one of the borrowers defaulted.

    但在某些時候,其中一個借款人違約了。

  • So his home was put on sale, then the second one, then the third.

    於是,他的房子被賣掉了,然後是第二家,再是第三家。

  • Soon, there were so many homes on sale but not enough buyers, and home prices began to

    很快,賣房的人多了,但買房的人卻不夠多,房價也開始了

  • fall.

    秋天。

  • When people saw that their 500K dollars mortgage house is suddenly worth only 250K, it stopped

    當人們看到自己50萬的按揭房突然只值25萬的時候,就不幹了

  • making sense for them to keep making mortgage payments so they walked away from them.

    讓他們繼續做抵押貸款的意義,所以他們離開了他們。

  • Now there were even more houses on sale, driving home prices even lower.

    現在賣的房子更多了,促使房價更低了。

  • So the banks were left with a lot of worthless mortgages that no one wanted to buy so they

    所以銀行就剩下了很多不值錢的抵押貸款,沒有人願意買,所以它們

  • went bankrupt one after another.

    相繼破產。

  • but how is this all related to the 2021 crash?

    但這一切與2021年的股災有什麼關係?

  • Well, the government intervened and saved the big banks in return that they would tighten

    好吧,政府幹預並拯救了大銀行,以換取他們的緊縮政策

  • their regulations and won't randomly give mortgage unless they have high enough credit

    他們的規定,除非他們有足夠高的信用,否則不會隨便給抵押貸款。

  • score and are able to make the monthly payments.

    分,並且能夠支付月供。

  • For sometime, they did, if in 2010, you would try to get a mortgage, the banks would require

    有一段時間,他們做到了,如果在2010年,你會試圖獲得抵押貸款,銀行會要求。

  • you endless number of documents to prove you are financially responsible and you have a

    你有數不盡的文件來證明你是有經濟責任心的,你有一個。

  • stable job that will allow you to make mortgage payments on time.

    穩定的工作,能讓你按時還貸。

  • So, Home price returned back to their pre crises level by 2012.

    所以,到2012年,房價又回到了危機前的水準。

  • The only reason, the market would crash again is if house prices will start rising dramatically

    唯一的原因,市場會再次崩盤的原因是,如果房價會開始大幅上漲的話

  • again and there won't be a demand to meet it.

    又不會有需求來滿足它。

  • In the last 8 years, home prices did actually rise but mortgages were no longer given to

    在過去的8年裡,房價確實是漲了,但房貸不再給到了

  • irresponsible borrowers.

    不負責任的借款人;

  • In fact, In 2016, the FED stepped in and raised interest rates from 0.25 to 0.5 so that it

    事實上,2016年,FED出手,將利率從0.25提高到0.5,這樣一來,它

  • wont turn into a bubble.

    不會變成保麗龍。

  • By 2019, interest rates were at 2.5 percent.

    到2019年,利率在2.5%。

  • Borrowing money became expensive, although the number of mortgages dropped to a certain

    借錢變得很貴,雖然抵押貸款的數量下降到了一定程度

  • extend, but the demand was still there so prices kept rising.

    延伸,但需求還是有的,所以價格不斷上漲。

  • - Covid-19: The crises that suppose to crash the housing market

    - Covid-19。假設房市崩潰的危機。

  • When the pandemic stopped the economy, it was clear that the housing market is going

    疫情停滯經濟的時候,樓市顯然要

  • to crash, because overnight millions of people lost their jobs which means, they won't

    因為一夜之間,數百萬人失業了,也就是說,他們不會再失業了

  • be able to continue making their mortgage payments and default on their mortgage which

    有能力繼續支付房貸而拖欠房貸,這將會導致

  • means, suddenly there are going to be too many houses in the market as it was back in

    意味著,突然間市場上會有太多的房子,因為它是在。

  • 2008 so home prices will start falling which means the housing market will crash.

    2008年,所以房價會開始下跌,這意味著樓市會崩盤。

  • But what we didn't take into account is that, the Fed just recently went through a

    但我們沒有考慮到的是,美聯儲最近剛剛經歷了一次。

  • housing crash so it knew how to stop it.

    房市崩盤,所以它知道如何阻止它。

  • First of all the government distributed stimulus checks to help everyone to pay the bills.

    首先是政府發放刺激經濟的支票,幫大家埋單。

  • The government granted financial aid to businesses who retained their employees so most people

    政府對留住員工的企業給予經濟援助,所以大部分人

  • could keep paying the bills, including their mortgage.

    可以繼續支付賬單,包括他們的抵押貸款。

  • And to seal the case, the government intruduced a forbearance plan which basically means,

    而為了封殺此案,政府引入了一個暫緩計劃,這基本上意味著。

  • you can put your mortgage payments on hold until 2021.

    你可以把你的按揭付款擱置到2021年。

  • And that means that non one is going to default on their loan this year, and by the next year,

    而這就意味著,今年非但沒有人拖欠貸款,到了明年。

  • a vaccine is hopefully will be available and everyone will get back to work and keep making

    疫苗是希望將是可用的,每個人都將回到工作,並繼續使

  • their monthly mortgage payments.

    他們的月供。

  • but why in the middle of a pandemic, home prices are still rising?

    但為什麼在疫情中,房價還在上漲?

  • Remember, in the beginning of the video we talked about How the fed lowers interest rates

    還記得,在視頻的開頭,我們談到了美聯儲是如何降低利率的?

  • during recessions to help stimulate growth.

    在經濟衰退期間,幫助刺激增長。

  • Well, that's exactly what they did.

    嗯,這正是他們所做的。

  • The fed lowered rates to 0.25 percent which made borrowing money more affordable so the

    美聯儲將利率降至0.25%,這讓借錢變得更實惠了,所以。

  • demand for homes rose while the supply didn't.

    房屋需求上升,而供應卻沒有。

  • Is the market overvalued?

    市場是否被高估?

  • Probably!

    也許吧!

  • But its definitely not a bubble.

    但它絕對不是一個保麗龍。

  • Once the 2020 rollercoaster will end and life will get back to normal, home prices may depreciate

    一旦2020年雲霄飛車將結束,生活恢復正常,房價或將貶值。

  • to what they really worth, but that might not happen next year.

    到他們真正的價值,但這可能不會發生在明年。

  • Of course if you take individual cities like San Franciso, New York City, or LA, home prices

    當然如果拿個別城市來說,比如聖弗朗西斯科,紐約市,或者洛杉磯,房價

  • might be slightly more overvalued.

    可能會被略微高估。

  • But that's pretty much about.

    但也差不多了。

  • it.

    它。

  • So, is it a good idea to invest in real estate now?

    那麼,現在投資房地產好嗎?

  • Probably no since the market is slightly overvalued and a correction might happen next year, on

    可能沒有,因為市場略微高估,明年可能會出現修正,上

  • the other hand, timing the market isn't a great idea either, especially the housing

    另一方面,擇時入市也不是什麼好主意,尤其是房市。

  • market since house prices don't jump up and down like stocks so you might end up waiting

    市場,因為房價不像股票那樣暴漲暴跌,所以你可能最終要等

  • a few more years.

    再過幾年。

  • And now its your turn, do you think we are in a bubble?

    現在輪到你了,你覺得我們是在保麗龍中嗎?

  • Will home prices crash next year?

    明年房價會不會崩盤?

  • Let me know in the comments below.

    請在下面的評論中告訴我。

  • And that's it for today.

    今天就到這裡吧。

  • Make sure to give this video a thumbs if you have enjoyed it.

    如果你喜歡這個視頻,一定要給它豎起大拇指。

  • And if you are new around here, smash that subscribe button and the bell besides it,

    如果你是新來的,就把那個訂閱按鈕和旁邊的鈴鐺砸了。

  • thanks for watching and until next time.

    謝謝你的觀看,直到下一次。

Should you invest in real estate now?!

你現在應該投資房地產嗎!?

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大規模房市崩盤在即--你現在應該投資房地產嗎? (Massive Housing Crash Ahead - Should You Invest in Real Estate Now?)

  • 7 1
    Summer 發佈於 2020 年 11 月 14 日
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