If you turn on the news, besides the pandemic, everyone is talking about the housing bubble.

如果你打開新聞，除了流行病，大家都在談論房地產保麗龍。

Experts are warning that the housing market will crash in 2021.

專家警告，2021年房市將崩盤。

And as a piece of evidence they bring the example of the 2008 crash that 2020 is following

而作為一個證據，他們帶來的例子是2008年的股災，2020年也是如此

the exact same patterns so the housing market should crash again next year.

完全相同的模式，所以明年房市應該會再次崩盤。

And this is pretty interesting because if we are in a bubble that will burst next year,

而這很有意思，因為如果我們處於保麗龍中，明年就會破滅。

it will present a golden opportunity for a lot of people to jump in and make a fortune

這將為很多人提供一個黃金機會，讓他們跳進去發財。

because a housing bubble means that houses will be sold at a fraction of their real price

因為房屋保麗龍意味著房屋將以低於實際價格的價格出售

once the bubble burst.

一旦保麗龍破裂。

Imagine at $200,000 home that you wanted to buy is suddenly on sale for 70 or $80,000

想象一下，你想買的20萬的房子突然以7、8萬的價格出售了

and interest rates are so low that you can get it immediately if you can make the downpayment.

而且利率很低，只要你能付得起首付，馬上就能拿到。

Doesn't that sounds like a golden opportunity?

這聽起來不就是一個黃金機會嗎？

Everyone likes investing in real state because for some weird reason we believe that real

每個人都喜歡投資於真實的狀態，因為一些奇怪的原因，我們相信，真正的。

estate prices will always rise however we have seen countless times that's not the case

物以稀為貴，人以群分

and house prices can actually drop.

而房價其實是可以下降的。

To figure out if investing in a real state now is a good idea or not we have to understand

要想弄清楚現在投資一個真實的狀態到底好不好，我們必須瞭解

a few things.

有幾件事。

Do home prices always rise?

房價總是上漲嗎？

How housing bubbles area created?

房產保麗龍是如何產生的？

And finally when exactly the market will crash?

最後市場到底什麼時候會崩盤？

Before we move on.

在我們繼續前。

I want to take a moment and thank our sponsors - Skillshare.

我想花點時間，感謝我們的贊助商--技能共享。

If you want to learn how to analyze companies like professional investors and find out if

如果你想學習如何像專業投資人一樣分析公司，並瞭解是否有

a certain company is a good investment or not.

某公司是否是好的投資。

You have to take this course by Skillshare because it will teach everything a professional

你必須採取技能共享的這門課程，因為它將教一個專業的一切。

investor uses to value a company.

投資者用於評估公司價值。

And it is taught by Business Casual ( the YouTube channel you probably know).

而它是由Business Casual（你可能知道的YouTube頻道）教授的。

I have taken the course!

我已經參加了課程！

Its short, animated, and worth your time. 

其短小精悍的動畫，值得你花時間。

Skillshare is an online learning community for creatives, where millions come together

Skillshare是一個創意者的在線學習社區，數以百萬計的人聚集在這裡。

to take the next step in their creative journey.

以期在他們的創意旅程中邁出下一步。

Skillshare offers thousands of inspiring classes for creative and curious people, on topics

Skillshare為有創造力和好奇心的人提供了數以千計的鼓舞人心的課程，主題包括

including illustration, design, photography, video, freelancing, and more.

包括插畫、設計、攝影、視頻、自由職業等。

And all that is for less than dollars a month with an annual subscription.

而這些都是每月不到美元的年費。

But because you guys are the best audience in the entire youtube,

但因為你們是整個youtube最好的觀眾。

The first 1000 people who click the link in my description, will get a free trial of Skillshare

前1000人誰點擊我的描述中的鏈接，將得到一個免費試用的技能共享。

premium.

溢價。

By the way, you will be supporting the channel by signing out to Skillshare.

對了，你簽到技能共享，就是對頻道的支持。

And now lets get back to the video.

現在讓我們回到視頻。

The 2008 Crash - The mother of Housing Bubbles

2008年的崩盤--房屋保麗龍之母。

One of the tools the fed has at its disposal to control the economy is the interest rate.

美聯儲控制經濟的工具之一就是利率。

When the economy is rising too fast, the government intervenes and raises interest rates to stop

當經濟上升速度過快時，政府就會進行干預，提高利率來阻止

the flow of capital into the market so that the economy doesn't turns into a bubble,

資本流入市場，使經濟不至於變成保麗龍。

because high interest rates means borrowing money becomes expensive which means less people

因為高利率意味著借錢變得昂貴，這意味著更少的人。

would borrow money which will result in less spending.

會借錢，這將導致支出減少。

And vice versa.

反之亦然。

Thats known as Monetary policy.

這就是所謂的貨幣政策。

So back in 2000s, when the dot com bubble burst, the stock market lost almost 5 trillion

所以早在2000年，網絡保麗龍破滅的時候，股市就損失了近5萬億。

dollars of market cap, the economy was in a recession, so the fed lowered interest rates,

美元的市值，經濟處於衰退期，所以美聯儲降低了利率。

From around 3 percent to 2.5 then to 2 percent all the way down to a little over 1 percent

從3%左右到2.5%再到2%，一直到1%多一點。

to encourage everyone to borrow money and spend in order to get back the economy on

鼓勵大家借錢消費，以使經濟恢復正常。

its knees.

它的膝蓋。

And it worked, by 2003 the economy began recovering, by 2006, the stock market reached its pre

而且它的工作，2003年經濟開始復甦，到2006年，股市達到了它的前

dot com crash level.

點網的崩潰程度。

But low interest rates means low rate of return on government bond and interest on fixed despots.

但低利率意味著政府債券的低收益率和定投的利息。

It no longer made sense for investors to buy government bonds or keep their pile of cash

對投資者來說，購買政府債券或留著一堆現金已經沒有意義了

in the banks since inflation would slowly eat it away especially when a few years ago,

在銀行裡，因為通貨膨脹會慢慢吞噬它，特別是當幾年前。

they made unbeliever returns during the dot com bubble, the s&p500 rose by over 400 percent

他們在網絡保麗龍期間獲得了難以置信的回報，標準普爾500指數漲幅超過400%。

from 1995 to 2000.

從1995年到2000年。

So investors were looking for a new opportunity, a safe and rising investment to throw their

於是，投資者們都在尋找一個新的機會，一個安全而又上升的投資項目，以投

money at and real estate seemed like a great idea, but investor don't have the time to

在和房地產的錢似乎是一個偉大的想法，但投資者沒有時間來

deal with individual buyers so financial institutions came with a brilliant idea.

與個人買家打交道，所以金融機構想出了一個好主意。

Since interest rates were so low, everyone was buying a house, so financial institutions

由於利率太低，大家都在買房，所以金融機構

would take these mortgages, bundle them together and sell them to investors in forms of shares.

會把這些抵押貸款，捆綁在一起，以股票的形式賣給投資者。

These investments [proved to be really great, but banks run out of financially responsible

這些投資[事實證明真的很好，但銀行跑出來的財務負責任的

people to loan mortgages but investors still wanted to buy these investments.

人進行抵押貸款，但投資者仍想購買這些投資。

So banks started giving subprime mortgages or mortgages to people with really low credit

所以銀行開始給次貸或抵押貸款給信用真的很低的人。

scores, people didn't necessarily have enough income to keep making the mortgage payments.

分，人們不一定有足夠的收入來繼續支付按揭貸款。

Why?

為什麼？

Because they would take these mortgages, bundle them together and sell them to investors.

因為他們會把這些抵押貸款，捆綁在一起，賣給投資者。

Low interest rates and rising home prices kept attracting more and more investors.

低利率和房價上漲不斷吸引著越來越多的投資者。

The reason why these investments appeared so seductive is because the investors argued

這些投資之所以顯得如此誘人，是因為投資人認為：1．

that, even if they would default on their loan, its not a big deal, the bank can get

即使他們會拖欠貸款，也沒什麼大不了的，銀行可以得到。

back the house and sell it and since home prices were rising, they would still make

的房子，並將其出售，由於房價上漲，他們仍然會賺取。

a profit, it seemed like the perfect investment.

盈利，這似乎是一個完美的投資。

So the banks gave mortgages to everyone, that inflated home prices to unbelievable heights,

所以銀行給大家提供了抵押貸款，這讓房價膨脹到不可思議的高度。

but at some point one of the borrowers defaulted.

但在某些時候，其中一個借款人違約了。

So his home was put on sale, then the second one, then the third.

於是，他的房子被賣掉了，然後是第二家，再是第三家。

Soon, there were so many homes on sale but not enough buyers, and home prices began to

很快，賣房的人多了，但買房的人卻不夠多，房價也開始了

fall.

秋天。

When people saw that their 500K dollars mortgage house is suddenly worth only 250K, it stopped

當人們看到自己50萬的按揭房突然只值25萬的時候，就不幹了

making sense for them to keep making mortgage payments so they walked away from them.

讓他們繼續做抵押貸款的意義，所以他們離開了他們。

Now there were even more houses on sale, driving home prices even lower.

現在賣的房子更多了，促使房價更低了。

So the banks were left with a lot of worthless mortgages that no one wanted to buy so they

所以銀行就剩下了很多不值錢的抵押貸款，沒有人願意買，所以它們

went bankrupt one after another.

相繼破產。

but how is this all related to the 2021 crash?

但這一切與2021年的股災有什麼關係？

Well, the government intervened and saved the big banks in return that they would tighten

好吧，政府幹預並拯救了大銀行，以換取他們的緊縮政策

their regulations and won't randomly give mortgage unless they have high enough credit

他們的規定，除非他們有足夠高的信用，否則不會隨便給抵押貸款。

score and are able to make the monthly payments.

分，並且能夠支付月供。

For sometime, they did, if in 2010, you would try to get a mortgage, the banks would require

有一段時間，他們做到了，如果在2010年，你會試圖獲得抵押貸款，銀行會要求。

you endless number of documents to prove you are financially responsible and you have a

你有數不盡的文件來證明你是有經濟責任心的，你有一個。

stable job that will allow you to make mortgage payments on time.

穩定的工作，能讓你按時還貸。

So, Home price returned back to their pre crises level by 2012.

所以，到2012年，房價又回到了危機前的水準。

The only reason, the market would crash again is if house prices will start rising dramatically

唯一的原因，市場會再次崩盤的原因是，如果房價會開始大幅上漲的話

again and there won't be a demand to meet it.

又不會有需求來滿足它。

In the last 8 years, home prices did actually rise but mortgages were no longer given to

在過去的8年裡，房價確實是漲了，但房貸不再給到了

irresponsible borrowers.

不負責任的借款人；

In fact, In 2016, the FED stepped in and raised interest rates from 0.25 to 0.5 so that it

事實上，2016年，FED出手，將利率從0.25提高到0.5，這樣一來，它

wont turn into a bubble.

不會變成保麗龍。

By 2019, interest rates were at 2.5 percent.

到2019年，利率在2.5%。

Borrowing money became expensive, although the number of mortgages dropped to a certain

借錢變得很貴，雖然抵押貸款的數量下降到了一定程度

extend, but the demand was still there so prices kept rising.

延伸，但需求還是有的，所以價格不斷上漲。

- Covid-19: The crises that suppose to crash the housing market

- Covid-19。假設房市崩潰的危機。

When the pandemic stopped the economy, it was clear that the housing market is going

疫情停滯經濟的時候，樓市顯然要

to crash, because overnight millions of people lost their jobs which means, they won't

因為一夜之間，數百萬人失業了，也就是說，他們不會再失業了

be able to continue making their mortgage payments and default on their mortgage which

有能力繼續支付房貸而拖欠房貸，這將會導致

means, suddenly there are going to be too many houses in the market as it was back in

意味著，突然間市場上會有太多的房子，因為它是在。

2008 so home prices will start falling which means the housing market will crash.

2008年，所以房價會開始下跌，這意味著樓市會崩盤。

But what we didn't take into account is that, the Fed just recently went through a

但我們沒有考慮到的是，美聯儲最近剛剛經歷了一次。

housing crash so it knew how to stop it.

房市崩盤，所以它知道如何阻止它。

First of all the government distributed stimulus checks to help everyone to pay the bills.

首先是政府發放刺激經濟的支票，幫大家埋單。

The government granted financial aid to businesses who retained their employees so most people

政府對留住員工的企業給予經濟援助，所以大部分人

could keep paying the bills, including their mortgage.

可以繼續支付賬單，包括他們的抵押貸款。

And to seal the case, the government intruduced a forbearance plan which basically means,

而為了封殺此案，政府引入了一個暫緩計劃，這基本上意味著。

you can put your mortgage payments on hold until 2021.

你可以把你的按揭付款擱置到2021年。

And that means that non one is going to default on their loan this year, and by the next year,

而這就意味著，今年非但沒有人拖欠貸款，到了明年。

a vaccine is hopefully will be available and everyone will get back to work and keep making

疫苗是希望將是可用的，每個人都將回到工作，並繼續使

their monthly mortgage payments.

他們的月供。

but why in the middle of a pandemic, home prices are still rising?

但為什麼在疫情中，房價還在上漲？

Remember, in the beginning of the video we talked about How the fed lowers interest rates

還記得，在視頻的開頭，我們談到了美聯儲是如何降低利率的？

during recessions to help stimulate growth.

在經濟衰退期間，幫助刺激增長。

Well, that's exactly what they did.

嗯，這正是他們所做的。

The fed lowered rates to 0.25 percent which made borrowing money more affordable so the

美聯儲將利率降至0.25%，這讓借錢變得更實惠了，所以。

demand for homes rose while the supply didn't.

房屋需求上升，而供應卻沒有。

Is the market overvalued?

市場是否被高估？

Probably!

也許吧！

But its definitely not a bubble.

但它絕對不是一個保麗龍。

Once the 2020 rollercoaster will end and life will get back to normal, home prices may depreciate

一旦2020年雲霄飛車將結束，生活恢復正常，房價或將貶值。

to what they really worth, but that might not happen next year.

到他們真正的價值，但這可能不會發生在明年。

Of course if you take individual cities like San Franciso, New York City, or LA, home prices

當然如果拿個別城市來說，比如聖弗朗西斯科，紐約市，或者洛杉磯，房價

might be slightly more overvalued.

可能會被略微高估。

But that's pretty much about.

但也差不多了。

it.

它。

So, is it a good idea to invest in real estate now?

那麼，現在投資房地產好嗎？

Probably no since the market is slightly overvalued and a correction might happen next year, on

可能沒有，因為市場略微高估，明年可能會出現修正，上

the other hand, timing the market isn't a great idea either, especially the housing

另一方面，擇時入市也不是什麼好主意，尤其是房市。

market since house prices don't jump up and down like stocks so you might end up waiting

市場，因為房價不像股票那樣暴漲暴跌，所以你可能最終要等

a few more years.

再過幾年。

And now its your turn, do you think we are in a bubble?

現在輪到你了，你覺得我們是在保麗龍中嗎？

Will home prices crash next year?

明年房價會不會崩盤？

Let me know in the comments below.

請在下面的評論中告訴我。

And that's it for today.

今天就到這裡吧。

Make sure to give this video a thumbs if you have enjoyed it.

如果你喜歡這個視頻，一定要給它豎起大拇指。

And if you are new around here, smash that subscribe button and the bell besides it,

如果你是新來的，就把那個訂閱按鈕和旁邊的鈴鐺砸了。

thanks for watching and until next time.

謝謝你的觀看，直到下一次。