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Should you invest in real estate now?!
你現在應該投資房地產嗎!?
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If you turn on the news, besides the pandemic, everyone is talking about the housing bubble.
如果你打開新聞,除了流行病,大家都在談論房地產保麗龍。
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Experts are warning that the housing market will crash in 2021.
專家警告,2021年房市將崩盤。
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And as a piece of evidence they bring the example of the 2008 crash that 2020 is following
而作為一個證據,他們帶來的例子是2008年的股災,2020年也是如此
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the exact same patterns so the housing market should crash again next year.
完全相同的模式,所以明年房市應該會再次崩盤。
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And this is pretty interesting because if we are in a bubble that will burst next year,
而這很有意思,因為如果我們處於保麗龍中,明年就會破滅。
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it will present a golden opportunity for a lot of people to jump in and make a fortune
這將為很多人提供一個黃金機會,讓他們跳進去發財。
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because a housing bubble means that houses will be sold at a fraction of their real price
因為房屋保麗龍意味著房屋將以低於實際價格的價格出售
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once the bubble burst.
一旦保麗龍破裂。
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Imagine at $200,000 home that you wanted to buy is suddenly on sale for 70 or $80,000
想象一下,你想買的20萬的房子突然以7、8萬的價格出售了
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and interest rates are so low that you can get it immediately if you can make the downpayment.
而且利率很低,只要你能付得起首付,馬上就能拿到。
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Doesn't that sounds like a golden opportunity?
這聽起來不就是一個黃金機會嗎?
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Everyone likes investing in real state because for some weird reason we believe that real
每個人都喜歡投資於真實的狀態,因為一些奇怪的原因,我們相信,真正的。
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estate prices will always rise however we have seen countless times that's not the case
物以稀為貴,人以群分
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and house prices can actually drop.
而房價其實是可以下降的。
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To figure out if investing in a real state now is a good idea or not we have to understand
要想弄清楚現在投資一個真實的狀態到底好不好,我們必須瞭解
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a few things.
有幾件事。
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Do home prices always rise?
房價總是上漲嗎?
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How housing bubbles area created?
房產保麗龍是如何產生的?
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And finally when exactly the market will crash?
最後市場到底什麼時候會崩盤?
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Before we move on.
在我們繼續前。
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I want to take a moment and thank our sponsors - Skillshare.
我想花點時間,感謝我們的贊助商--技能共享。
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If you want to learn how to analyze companies like professional investors and find out if
如果你想學習如何像專業投資人一樣分析公司,並瞭解是否有
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a certain company is a good investment or not.
某公司是否是好的投資。
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You have to take this course by Skillshare because it will teach everything a professional
你必須採取技能共享的這門課程,因為它將教一個專業的一切。
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investor uses to value a company.
投資者用於評估公司價值。
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And it is taught by Business Casual ( the YouTube channel you probably know).
而它是由Business Casual(你可能知道的YouTube頻道)教授的。
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I have taken the course!
我已經參加了課程!
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Its short, animated, and worth your time.
其短小精悍的動畫,值得你花時間。
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Skillshare is an online learning community for creatives, where millions come together
Skillshare是一個創意者的在線學習社區,數以百萬計的人聚集在這裡。
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to take the next step in their creative journey.
以期在他們的創意旅程中邁出下一步。
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Skillshare offers thousands of inspiring classes for creative and curious people, on topics
Skillshare為有創造力和好奇心的人提供了數以千計的鼓舞人心的課程,主題包括
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including illustration, design, photography, video, freelancing, and more.
包括插畫、設計、攝影、視頻、自由職業等。
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And all that is for less than dollars a month with an annual subscription.
而這些都是每月不到美元的年費。
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But because you guys are the best audience in the entire youtube,
但因為你們是整個youtube最好的觀眾。
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The first 1000 people who click the link in my description, will get a free trial of Skillshare
前1000人誰點擊我的描述中的鏈接,將得到一個免費試用的技能共享。
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premium.
溢價。
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By the way, you will be supporting the channel by signing out to Skillshare.
對了,你簽到技能共享,就是對頻道的支持。
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And now lets get back to the video.
現在讓我們回到視頻。
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The 2008 Crash - The mother of Housing Bubbles
2008年的崩盤--房屋保麗龍之母。
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One of the tools the fed has at its disposal to control the economy is the interest rate.
美聯儲控制經濟的工具之一就是利率。
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When the economy is rising too fast, the government intervenes and raises interest rates to stop
當經濟上升速度過快時,政府就會進行干預,提高利率來阻止
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the flow of capital into the market so that the economy doesn't turns into a bubble,
資本流入市場,使經濟不至於變成保麗龍。
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because high interest rates means borrowing money becomes expensive which means less people
因為高利率意味著借錢變得昂貴,這意味著更少的人。
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would borrow money which will result in less spending.
會借錢,這將導致支出減少。
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And vice versa.
反之亦然。
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Thats known as Monetary policy.
這就是所謂的貨幣政策。
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So back in 2000s, when the dot com bubble burst, the stock market lost almost 5 trillion
所以早在2000年,網絡保麗龍破滅的時候,股市就損失了近5萬億。
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dollars of market cap, the economy was in a recession, so the fed lowered interest rates,
美元的市值,經濟處於衰退期,所以美聯儲降低了利率。
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From around 3 percent to 2.5 then to 2 percent all the way down to a little over 1 percent
從3%左右到2.5%再到2%,一直到1%多一點。
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to encourage everyone to borrow money and spend in order to get back the economy on
鼓勵大家借錢消費,以使經濟恢復正常。
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its knees.
它的膝蓋。
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And it worked, by 2003 the economy began recovering, by 2006, the stock market reached its pre
而且它的工作,2003年經濟開始復甦,到2006年,股市達到了它的前
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dot com crash level.
點網的崩潰程度。
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But low interest rates means low rate of return on government bond and interest on fixed despots.
但低利率意味著政府債券的低收益率和定投的利息。
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It no longer made sense for investors to buy government bonds or keep their pile of cash
對投資者來說,購買政府債券或留著一堆現金已經沒有意義了
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in the banks since inflation would slowly eat it away especially when a few years ago,
在銀行裡,因為通貨膨脹會慢慢吞噬它,特別是當幾年前。
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they made unbeliever returns during the dot com bubble, the s&p500 rose by over 400 percent
他們在網絡保麗龍期間獲得了難以置信的回報,標準普爾500指數漲幅超過400%。
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from 1995 to 2000.
從1995年到2000年。
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So investors were looking for a new opportunity, a safe and rising investment to throw their
於是,投資者們都在尋找一個新的機會,一個安全而又上升的投資項目,以投
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money at and real estate seemed like a great idea, but investor don't have the time to
在和房地產的錢似乎是一個偉大的想法,但投資者沒有時間來
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deal with individual buyers so financial institutions came with a brilliant idea.
與個人買家打交道,所以金融機構想出了一個好主意。
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Since interest rates were so low, everyone was buying a house, so financial institutions
由於利率太低,大家都在買房,所以金融機構
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would take these mortgages, bundle them together and sell them to investors in forms of shares.
會把這些抵押貸款,捆綁在一起,以股票的形式賣給投資者。
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These investments [proved to be really great, but banks run out of financially responsible
這些投資[事實證明真的很好,但銀行跑出來的財務負責任的
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people to loan mortgages but investors still wanted to buy these investments.
人進行抵押貸款,但投資者仍想購買這些投資。
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So banks started giving subprime mortgages or mortgages to people with really low credit
所以銀行開始給次貸或抵押貸款給信用真的很低的人。
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scores, people didn't necessarily have enough income to keep making the mortgage payments.
分,人們不一定有足夠的收入來繼續支付按揭貸款。
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Why?
為什麼?
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Because they would take these mortgages, bundle them together and sell them to investors.
因為他們會把這些抵押貸款,捆綁在一起,賣給投資者。
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Low interest rates and rising home prices kept attracting more and more investors.
低利率和房價上漲不斷吸引著越來越多的投資者。
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The reason why these investments appeared so seductive is because the investors argued
這些投資之所以顯得如此誘人,是因為投資人認為:1.
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that, even if they would default on their loan, its not a big deal, the bank can get
即使他們會拖欠貸款,也沒什麼大不了的,銀行可以得到。
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back the house and sell it and since home prices were rising, they would still make
的房子,並將其出售,由於房價上漲,他們仍然會賺取。
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a profit, it seemed like the perfect investment.
盈利,這似乎是一個完美的投資。
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So the banks gave mortgages to everyone, that inflated home prices to unbelievable heights,
所以銀行給大家提供了抵押貸款,這讓房價膨脹到不可思議的高度。
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but at some point one of the borrowers defaulted.
但在某些時候,其中一個借款人違約了。
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So his home was put on sale, then the second one, then the third.
於是,他的房子被賣掉了,然後是第二家,再是第三家。
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Soon, there were so many homes on sale but not enough buyers, and home prices began to
很快,賣房的人多了,但買房的人卻不夠多,房價也開始了
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fall.
秋天。
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When people saw that their 500K dollars mortgage house is suddenly worth only 250K, it stopped
當人們看到自己50萬的按揭房突然只值25萬的時候,就不幹了
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making sense for them to keep making mortgage payments so they walked away from them.
讓他們繼續做抵押貸款的意義,所以他們離開了他們。
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Now there were even more houses on sale, driving home prices even lower.
現在賣的房子更多了,促使房價更低了。
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So the banks were left with a lot of worthless mortgages that no one wanted to buy so they
所以銀行就剩下了很多不值錢的抵押貸款,沒有人願意買,所以它們
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went bankrupt one after another.
相繼破產。
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but how is this all related to the 2021 crash?
但這一切與2021年的股災有什麼關係?
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Well, the government intervened and saved the big banks in return that they would tighten
好吧,政府幹預並拯救了大銀行,以換取他們的緊縮政策
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their regulations and won't randomly give mortgage unless they have high enough credit
他們的規定,除非他們有足夠高的信用,否則不會隨便給抵押貸款。
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score and are able to make the monthly payments.
分,並且能夠支付月供。
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For sometime, they did, if in 2010, you would try to get a mortgage, the banks would require
有一段時間,他們做到了,如果在2010年,你會試圖獲得抵押貸款,銀行會要求。
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you endless number of documents to prove you are financially responsible and you have a
你有數不盡的文件來證明你是有經濟責任心的,你有一個。
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stable job that will allow you to make mortgage payments on time.
穩定的工作,能讓你按時還貸。
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So, Home price returned back to their pre crises level by 2012.
所以,到2012年,房價又回到了危機前的水準。
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The only reason, the market would crash again is if house prices will start rising dramatically
唯一的原因,市場會再次崩盤的原因是,如果房價會開始大幅上漲的話
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again and there won't be a demand to meet it.
又不會有需求來滿足它。
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In the last 8 years, home prices did actually rise but mortgages were no longer given to
在過去的8年裡,房價確實是漲了,但房貸不再給到了
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irresponsible borrowers.
不負責任的借款人;
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In fact, In 2016, the FED stepped in and raised interest rates from 0.25 to 0.5 so that it
事實上,2016年,FED出手,將利率從0.25提高到0.5,這樣一來,它
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wont turn into a bubble.
不會變成保麗龍。
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By 2019, interest rates were at 2.5 percent.
到2019年,利率在2.5%。
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Borrowing money became expensive, although the number of mortgages dropped to a certain
借錢變得很貴,雖然抵押貸款的數量下降到了一定程度
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extend, but the demand was still there so prices kept rising.
延伸,但需求還是有的,所以價格不斷上漲。
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- Covid-19: The crises that suppose to crash the housing market
- Covid-19。假設房市崩潰的危機。
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When the pandemic stopped the economy, it was clear that the housing market is going
疫情停滯經濟的時候,樓市顯然要
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to crash, because overnight millions of people lost their jobs which means, they won't
因為一夜之間,數百萬人失業了,也就是說,他們不會再失業了
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be able to continue making their mortgage payments and default on their mortgage which
有能力繼續支付房貸而拖欠房貸,這將會導致
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means, suddenly there are going to be too many houses in the market as it was back in
意味著,突然間市場上會有太多的房子,因為它是在。
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2008 so home prices will start falling which means the housing market will crash.
2008年,所以房價會開始下跌,這意味著樓市會崩盤。
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But what we didn't take into account is that, the Fed just recently went through a
但我們沒有考慮到的是,美聯儲最近剛剛經歷了一次。
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housing crash so it knew how to stop it.
房市崩盤,所以它知道如何阻止它。
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First of all the government distributed stimulus checks to help everyone to pay the bills.
首先是政府發放刺激經濟的支票,幫大家埋單。
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The government granted financial aid to businesses who retained their employees so most people
政府對留住員工的企業給予經濟援助,所以大部分人
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could keep paying the bills, including their mortgage.
可以繼續支付賬單,包括他們的抵押貸款。
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And to seal the case, the government intruduced a forbearance plan which basically means,
而為了封殺此案,政府引入了一個暫緩計劃,這基本上意味著。
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you can put your mortgage payments on hold until 2021.
你可以把你的按揭付款擱置到2021年。
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And that means that non one is going to default on their loan this year, and by the next year,
而這就意味著,今年非但沒有人拖欠貸款,到了明年。
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a vaccine is hopefully will be available and everyone will get back to work and keep making
疫苗是希望將是可用的,每個人都將回到工作,並繼續使
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their monthly mortgage payments.
他們的月供。
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but why in the middle of a pandemic, home prices are still rising?
但為什麼在疫情中,房價還在上漲?
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Remember, in the beginning of the video we talked about How the fed lowers interest rates
還記得,在視頻的開頭,我們談到了美聯儲是如何降低利率的?
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during recessions to help stimulate growth.
在經濟衰退期間,幫助刺激增長。
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Well, that's exactly what they did.
嗯,這正是他們所做的。
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The fed lowered rates to 0.25 percent which made borrowing money more affordable so the
美聯儲將利率降至0.25%,這讓借錢變得更實惠了,所以。
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demand for homes rose while the supply didn't.
房屋需求上升,而供應卻沒有。
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Is the market overvalued?
市場是否被高估?
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Probably!
也許吧!
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But its definitely not a bubble.
但它絕對不是一個保麗龍。
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Once the 2020 rollercoaster will end and life will get back to normal, home prices may depreciate
一旦2020年雲霄飛車將結束,生活恢復正常,房價或將貶值。
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to what they really worth, but that might not happen next year.
到他們真正的價值,但這可能不會發生在明年。
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Of course if you take individual cities like San Franciso, New York City, or LA, home prices
當然如果拿個別城市來說,比如聖弗朗西斯科,紐約市,或者洛杉磯,房價
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might be slightly more overvalued.
可能會被略微高估。
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But that's pretty much about.
但也差不多了。
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it.
它。
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So, is it a good idea to invest in real estate now?
那麼,現在投資房地產好嗎?
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Probably no since the market is slightly overvalued and a correction might happen next year, on
可能沒有,因為市場略微高估,明年可能會出現修正,上
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the other hand, timing the market isn't a great idea either, especially the housing
另一方面,擇時入市也不是什麼好主意,尤其是房市。
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market since house prices don't jump up and down like stocks so you might end up waiting
市場,因為房價不像股票那樣暴漲暴跌,所以你可能最終要等
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a few more years.
再過幾年。
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And now its your turn, do you think we are in a bubble?
現在輪到你了,你覺得我們是在保麗龍中嗎?
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Will home prices crash next year?
明年房價會不會崩盤?
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Let me know in the comments below.
請在下面的評論中告訴我。
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And that's it for today.
今天就到這裡吧。
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Make sure to give this video a thumbs if you have enjoyed it.
如果你喜歡這個視頻,一定要給它豎起大拇指。
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And if you are new around here, smash that subscribe button and the bell besides it,
如果你是新來的,就把那個訂閱按鈕和旁邊的鈴鐺砸了。
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thanks for watching and until next time.
謝謝你的觀看,直到下一次。