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  • Emily.

    艾米麗

  • It's taken time for a clear picture to emerge, not least because most people voted early on those ballots.

    它需要時間才能出現一個清晰的畫面,尤其是因為大多數人在這些選票上提前投票。

  • Many postal is you were just discussing have to be counted.

    很多郵政是你剛才討論的必須要計算的。

  • Here is the state of play as we go on air.

    下面是我們直播時的狀態。

  • Some networks have projected Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan for Biden were being a bit more cautious.

    一些網絡預測亞利桑那州、威斯康星州和密歇根州的拜登是比較謹慎的。

  • One thing is clear, though.

    不過,有一點是明確的。

  • This has Bean, a historic result in terms of turnout, with both sides highly motivated, the US looks set to get a 67% turnout, with 136 million votes cast.

    這有豆,從投票率上看是一個歷史性的結果,雙方的積極性都很高,美國看起來將獲得67%的投票率,1.36億票。

  • As of five o'clock this afternoon, Joe Biden has topped 70 million votes, the largest number of any candidate in US electoral history.

    截至今天下午五點,喬-拜登的得票數已經突破7000萬張,是美國選舉史上所有候選人中得票數最多的。

  • Even so, Donald Trump has got three million more votes than he did four years ago.

    即便如此,唐納德-特朗普還是比四年前多得了300萬張選票。

  • But of course, the popular vote doesn't matter.

    不過,當然,民選並不重要。

  • It all comes down to the Electoral College.

    這一切都歸結於選舉團。

  • Let's look at where we are now.

    讓我們看看我們現在的情況。

  • With that, the Biden campaign says they're very confident of victory in Wisconsin, Arizona and Michigan.

    拜登競選團隊表示,他們對在威斯康星州、亞利桑那州和密歇根州的勝利非常有信心。

  • That would give Biden 264 electoral votes, and Fox News agrees with that tantalizingly close, but not quite.

    這將使拜登獲得264張選舉人票,福克斯新聞同意這個誘人的接近,但不完全。

  • The 270 that Biden needs to be president.

    拜登當總統需要的270個。

  • The key will be for him to tip a state like Georgia, Pennsylvania, or perhaps the most likely next Nevada.

    關鍵將是他要提示像喬治亞州,賓夕法尼亞州,或者也許最有可能的下一個內華達州。

  • And it could be just a while before there's a clear answer in those states.

    而要在這些州有一個明確的答案,可能還需要一段時間。

  • One thing, though, is apparent.

    不過,有一點很明顯。

  • But despite the popular vote mandate, this won't be a landslide for Biden, the polls certainly underestimated Trump support, which in absolute terms, grew during the last four years.

    但儘管有普選授權,這不會是拜登的壓倒性勝利,但民調肯定低估了特朗普的支持率,從絕對值來看,特朗普的支持率在過去四年裡有所增長。

  • So where did that happen?

    那是在哪裡發生的呢?

  • Voting is complete in North Carolina, Florida and Georgia.

    北卡羅來納州、佛羅里達州和佐治亞州的投票工作已經完成。

  • Onda.

    Onda.

  • They're all interesting results from there.

    它們都是來自那裡的有趣結果。

  • Almost majorities.

    幾乎是多數。

  • Hispanic neighborhoods voted for Trump, up 11% in majority black neighborhoods in those states, up 2%.

    西班牙裔居民區投票給特朗普,在這些州的黑人佔多數的居民區增加了11%,增加了2%。

  • And look at this.

    看看這個。

  • It was meant to be Biden sweet spot.

    這本是拜登的甜蜜點。

  • But even the over 65 is down there.

    但即使是65歲以上的人也在下面。

  • Biden was up just by 1.5% with them.

    拜登與他們的漲幅只有1.5%。

  • One caveat, though.

    不過,有一點要注意。

  • To those figures, they could look different when we get the bigger national picture in the days and weeks ahead.

    對這些數字來說,當我們在未來幾天和幾周內獲得更大的全國情況時,它們可能會看起來不同。

  • Well, if Biden is to govern effectively, control of the Senate would certainly help.

    嗯,如果拜登要有效執政,控制參議院肯定會有幫助。

  • But that may elude him with Senator Susan Collins in Maine a Republican Trump skeptic doing better than expected.

    但這可能會躲過他與緬因州的參議員蘇珊-柯林斯(Susan Collins)一個共和黨的特朗普懷疑論者比預期的要好。

  • There on the Republicans, likely toe hang on to North Carolina and Georgia as well, taking them potentially to 50 Senate seat that would split the chamber right down the middle, symbolizing a polarized nation.

    在那裡對共和黨人,很可能趾掛在北卡羅來納州和佐治亞州以及,把他們潛在的50個參議院席位,將分裂商會右下角的中間,象徵著一個兩極化的國家。

  • So a record turnout.

    所以,創下了一個記錄。

  • But what drove people to the polls?

    但是,是什麼驅使人們去投票呢?

  • According to the exit polls released last night, this wasn't the coronavirus election that many people thought it would be.

    根據昨晚公佈的出口民調,這並不是很多人想象中的冠亞軍選舉。

  • 35% said it was three economy that calls them to vote 20% racial equality and down at third with just 17% the coronavirus pandemic.

    35%的人說,這是三個經濟,呼籲他們投票20%的種族平等和下降在第三,只有17%的冠狀病毒大流行。

  • Perhaps that's one reason that the route of President Trump and his party predicted by many polls, didn't happen.

    或許這也是很多民調預測的特朗普總統及其政黨的路線,沒有發生的原因之一。

  • Thanks, Mark.

    謝謝,馬克。

  • Absolutely fascinating some of that data.

    絕對迷人的一些數據。

  • We're going to dive into it a bit further, joining us now.

    我們要進一步深入研究,現在就加入我們。

  • Goldie Taylor, who's worked for political candidates on both sides, now editor at large of The Daily Beast and Franklin's, the Republican pollster and Strategy and Gold.

    戈爾迪-泰勒,曾為兩邊的政治候選人工作,現在是《每日野獸》和富蘭克林的總編輯,共和黨的民調機構和戰略與黃金。

  • I just want to start with those numbers for Donald Trump because he increased his share of the vote.

    我只想從唐納德-特朗普的這些數字開始,因為他增加了他的投票份額。

  • I wonder how you explain that to your readers to people who understand that he has done better in 2020 than he has in 2016.

    我不知道你如何向你的讀者解釋,讓他們明白他在2020年比2016年做得更好。

  • He certainly has.

    他當然有。

  • And I think almost no.

    而我認為幾乎沒有。

  • One.

    一。

  • I don't know, a pollster who is credible, who predicted that Donald Trump would expand his electric in the way that he had.

    我不知道,一個可信的民調機構,誰預測唐納德-特朗普會以他的方式擴大他的電。

  • You know, certainly he got a greater share of white voters than he had in 2016.

    你知道,當然他獲得的白人選民比例比2016年更多。

  • They also got a greater share of Hispanic and Latino voters.

    他們還獲得了更多的西班牙裔和拉丁裔選民的份額。

  • He got a greater share of not much marginally so, but a greater share of African American voters.

    他得到了更多的份額,雖然沒有多少邊際,但卻得到了更多的非裔美國選民的支持。

  • And I think that there is a, uh, sort of writing thought as to why that happened.

    而我認為,對於為什麼會發生這樣的事情,有一種,呃,是一種寫作思路。

  • Number one.

    第一。

  • I think there was a a misstep, if you will, by the Biden campaign in terms of investing in our shoring up votes among Hispanic and Latino voters, especially in South Florida, in the southern southwestern quarters of Texas, especially, and so those states where he might have done better.

    我認為拜登的競選活動有一個失誤,如果你願意的話,在投資於爭取西班牙裔和拉丁裔選民的選票方面,特別是在南佛羅里達州,特別是在德克薩斯州的西南地區,所以這些州他可能做得更好。

  • Uh, there were fewer.

    呃,有少。

  • Resource is, but where he did make the investments where he is making up the gap and where you're seeing some of those states come in.

    資源是,但他確實在哪裡做了投資,他在哪裡彌補了差距,你看到一些州在哪裡。

  • His column tonight even was among African American voters We knew that if we could grow that vote, if we could encourage more excitement, there's some more exciting.

    他今晚的專欄甚至是在非洲裔美國選民中 我們知道,如果我們能增加選票,如果我們能鼓勵更多的興奮,還有一些更令人興奮的。

  • Let me ask about what you let me ask you about that.

    讓我問一下你讓我問你什麼。

  • I'm really interested in when you say, shoring up the Latino vote, particularly in Miami, Miami Dade.

    我真的很感興趣,當你說, 爭取拉丁裔選票, 特別是在邁阿密,邁阿密戴德。

  • I mean, some people say it's because it was sort of, you know, sold to people of Cuban origins of Venezuelan origins that Biden was socialist on.

    我的意思是,有些人說這是因為它是那種,你知道,賣給古巴裔委內瑞拉裔的人,拜登是社會主義的。

  • Do you know that was obviously what they had escaped from?

    你知道那顯然是他們逃出來的嗎?

  • Others will say I've heard this phrase Hispanic, wondering that there was something in the Biden camp that was sort of, you know, taking the Latino vote a little bit, too.

    其他人會說,我聽過西班牙裔這個詞,不知道拜登陣營裡有什麼東西,你知道,把拉丁裔的選票也拿了一點。

  • S sort of lightly playing despot Cito at the rally and hoping that everyone was sort of homogenized and would go for the Democrat vote.

    S算是在集會上輕描淡寫地扮演了專制的Cito,希望大家算是同質化了,會去投民主黨的票。

  • Where do you think that actually went wrong?

    你覺得到底是哪裡出了問題?

  • Well, I think they're both right.

    我想他們都是對的。

  • I don't think that they're mutually exclusive.

    我不認為它們是相互排斥的。

  • I think on the one hand that there were folks inside the Biden camp who did not invest more fully and Hispanic and Latino voters.

    我認為一方面拜登陣營內部有一些人沒有更充分地投資和西班牙裔和拉丁裔選民。

  • But I think also that there were other aspects at play that are intercultural.

    但我認為也有其他方面的作用,是跨文化的。

  • And so Cubans are certainly in South Florida, you know, operate a bit differently.

    所以古巴人在南佛羅里達州,你知道,操作方式肯定有點不同。

  • Then say those of Mexican heritage who are lying the southwestern quarter of Texas.

    那就說那些躺在德州西南部的墨西哥裔。

  • You know those places.

    你知道那些地方。

  • Will Biden lost?

    拜登會輸嗎?

  • Uh, in fact, in the Rio Grande Valley.

    呃,事實上,在格蘭德河谷。

  • He lost in space among Hispanic voters among that quarter in the Rio Grande.

    他在里奧格蘭德州該季度的西班牙裔選民中失去了空間。

  • But I think there are a couple of things at play Number one, the Socialist boogeyman.

    但我認為有幾件事情在起作用 第一,社會主義妖怪。

  • Anybody who knows Joe Biden knows that he runs in the same strike as, say, a Barack Obama, even a Bill Clinton, that he is much more centrist than and maybe even presses wanted to put forth this time.

    任何瞭解喬-拜登的人都知道,他運行在同樣的罷工,比如說,一個奧巴馬,甚至一個比爾-克林頓,他比,甚至可能是媒體想要提出這個時間更中間派。

  • And so the Socialist boogeyman really didn't play this time.

    所以社會主義博狗娛樂網址是多少這次真的沒有玩。

  • And so Venezuela, you said you did let me bring in Frank lunch.

    所以委內瑞拉,你說你讓我帶Frank來吃午飯。

  • Now I want to look at what's happened to the Trump vote, Frank, because it seems as if he's increased fractionally his vote amongst white women.

    現在我想看看特朗普的選票發生了什麼,弗蘭克, 因為看起來他在白人女性中的選票增加了一小部分。

  • Now we'll remember 2018.

    現在我們會記得2018年。

  • The midterms was all about getting back suburban women.

    中期選舉就是為了找回郊區婦女。

  • I'm wondering if that has now sort of reversed.

    我在想,現在是不是已經有點逆轉了。

  • Well, he lost them earlier in the campaign when he was so eager to get the kids back to the schools and what we found WAAS.

    好吧,他在競選早期失去了他們,當時他是如此渴望讓孩子們回到學校,我們發現WAAS。

  • In that period in late August early September, suburban white women with Children moms were uncomfortable sending their kids back to school.

    在8月底9月初的那段時間裡,郊區白領女性帶著孩子的媽媽們都不放心送孩子回學校。

  • They wanted to work, but they still were nervous about it.

    他們想工作,但還是很緊張。

  • And 51% of these women were either extremely or very afraid of their Children attending class with other Children.

    51%的婦女非常或非常害怕自己的孩子和其他孩子一起上課。

  • And the fact that Trump seemed to be pushing them to go created the schism that it took into the last week of the campaign to repair itself.

    而事實上,特朗普似乎在推動他們走,這就造成了分裂,到競選最後一週才修復。

  • And second, even though Trump's uh, job approval went higher among women over the last year, his performance in that first debate really turned these middle aged middle income moms against him.

    其次,儘管去年特朗普的呃,工作支持率在女性中走高了,但他在第一場辯論中的表現真的讓這些中年中等收入的媽媽們反對他。

  • They didn't like the way that he interrupted.

    他們不喜歡他打斷的方式。

  • They didn't like the way he carried himself.

    他們不喜歡他帶著自己的方式。

  • And for them, it's not just about policy.

    而對於他們來說,這不僅僅是政策的問題。

  • It's also about the persona about the character of the candidate, and they really disliked and resented how tough Trump waas He fixed it to a great degree in the second debate.

    這也是關於候選人的人設關於候選人的性格,他們真的不喜歡和反感特朗普瓦斯的強硬他在第二次辯論中很好地解決了這個問題。

  • But these are all contributors to what was happening.

    但這些都是造成當時情況的原因。

  • Let me ask you, because presumably you're you're speaking to people in the Trump campaign now on by the looks of it, they wouldn't have expected to have done this well to have come this close, would they?

    我問你,因為你大概是你現在跟特朗普競選團隊的人說的,從表面上看,他們不會想到會做得這麼好,會有這麼接近的機會,是嗎?

  • Isn't this considered a better result than they were anticipating?

    這不算是比他們預期的結果更好嗎?

  • It's a better result than anybody else was anticipating, But the Trump campaign would tell you that they've been reading this and seeing this all along.

    這是一個比其他人預期的更好的結果,但特朗普競選團隊會告訴你,他們一直在讀這個,一直在看這個。

  • And that's one of the problems.

    這也是問題之一。

  • Actually, one of the reasons why I now realized that if Donald Trump had made a couple of different decisions during the campaign, he would be the one who'd be ahead tonight.

    其實,我現在意識到,如果唐納德-特朗普在競選期間做出幾個不同的決定,他將是今晚領先的那個人的原因之一。

  • He'd be the one that we'd be assuming running for president if he had changed his debate strategy or and by the way he went to the right states and had the right messages in those states.

    如果他改變了他的辯論策略,或者說他去了正確的州,並在這些州傳達了正確的資訊,那麼他就是我們假設的那個競選總統的人。

  • But if he showed just a little bit of empathy, particularly in coming out of Walter Reed, this could have been a different outcome.

    但如果他表現出一點點的同情心,特別是在從沃爾特里德出來的時候,這可能是一個不同的結果。

  • I didn't realize, personally, a za pollster.

    我不意識到,本人是個za民調員。

  • I didn't realize how close this election was gonna be.

    我不知道這次選舉會有多接近。

  • Donald Trump absolutely could have won it.

    唐納德-特朗普絕對可以贏得它。

  • Isn't that an extraordinary thing to say there, Goldie?

    這話說得是不是很特別,戈爾迪?

  • I mean, if we've learned one thing again for years on.

    我的意思是,如果我們又學到了一件事,多年來。

  • It's how confusing the picture that the pollsters painted for us has bean on.

    這就是民調機構為我們描繪的圖景有多混亂豆。

  • The sense you get is maybe polling is only actually reaching half of America.

    你得到的感覺是,也許民調實際上只達到了美國的一半。

  • I mean that there, you know, there's a whole swathe of of America that is not saying what they're doing and not trusting anyone with their voter or or their news that they're getting, you know well, first of all, I have to say that I agree with Franklin Franklin wholeheartedly on his previous spate of statements.

    我的意思是,有,你知道, 有一整片的美國 不說他們在做什麼,不信任任何人 與他們的選民或他們的新聞 他們得到的,你知道,首先, 我不得不說,我同意富蘭克林 富蘭克林全心全意 他以前的一連串的聲明。

  • I think that you know that this race could have been largely in Trump's favor had he made a few different decisions.

    我想你也知道,如果特朗普做出一些不同的決定,這場比賽在很大程度上可能對他有利。

  • But certainly I think polling has it's weaknesses, but it always has.

    但我當然認為民調有它的弱點,但它總是有的。

  • There was a fella named Bill Bradley in California who ran for office, and he was black.

    加利福尼亞有個叫比爾-布拉德利的傢伙,他競選過公職,他是黑人。

  • Man happens to be.

    人恰好是。

  • And when they call pollsters, they asked about him, You know, 30 years ago about Bill Bradley, what they vote for him.

    當他們打電話給民調機構時,他們問起他,你知道,30年前的比爾-布拉德利,他們投給他的是什麼。

  • There were many voters who said they would when in fact they wouldn't when in fact they weren't favoring him because they didn't want to tell people that they weren't favored him because he happened to be a black candidate.

    有很多選民說他們會,其實他們不會,而事實上他們並不青睞他,因為他們不想告訴人們,他們不青睞他,因為他恰好是一個黑人候選人。

  • This time it sort of worked in reverse.

    這次算是反過來了。

  • We call it sort of a reverse Bradley.

    我們稱它為 "反向布拉德利"。

  • There were a grand swamp of people out there who did not want to flip mint because of other public division or other things that they were supporting Donald Trump and that they like his policies, that they liked what he was doing at the port, that they liked what he was doing in terms of the Supreme Court and, you know, anti reproductive rights laws that they liked what he was doing in terms of taxation, that they liked what he was doing in terms of, you know, dealing with protesters on the streets.

    有一個宏大的沼澤的人在那裡誰不想翻轉薄荷,因為其他公共分裂或其他事情,他們支持唐納德-特朗普,他們喜歡他的政策,他們喜歡他在港口所做的事情,他們喜歡他在最高法院方面所做的事情,你知道,反生殖權利的法律,他們喜歡他在稅收方面所做的事情,他們喜歡他所做的事情,你知道,在街頭處理抗議者。

  • They like the kind of language and verb is that he was putting forward.

    他們喜歡他提出的那種語言和動詞是。

  • And so there were lots of those when I know them, you know who said, you know, Gosh, I just think he's a bad guy, But they went into the voting booth and they voted for him anyway.

    所以有很多人,當我知道他們,你知道誰說,你知道,天哪,我只是覺得他是一個壞傢伙,但他們走進投票箱,他們投票給他反正。

  • That means they way we've got the numbers behind that.

    這意味著他們的方式,我們已經得到了背後的數字。

  • 19% of Trump voters were dishonest with their friends and even their family.

    19%的特朗普選民對朋友甚至家人都不誠實。

  • Only 9% of Biden, voters acted the same way.

    只有9%的拜登,選民也是這樣做的。

  • There was a level of either embarrassment or fear of how they were gonna be treated retribution if they acknowledged they were voting for Trump, that was one of the impact of the polls.

    有一種程度的尷尬或恐懼,如果他們承認他們正在投票給特朗普,他們會如何被對待報復,這是民調的影響之一。

  • But the second is that Trump people did not participate.

    但二是特朗普人沒有參加。

  • They simply refused to cooperate with pollsters.

    他們只是拒絕與民調機構合作。

  • And the reason why they did not want to help the establishment.

    而他們之所以不願意幫助建立。

  • They didn't wanna help CNN or the New York Times.

    他們不想幫助CNN或紐約時報。

  • And so they simply said, No, Moss, I'm not gonna be involved.

    於是他們乾脆說,不,摩斯,我不會參與。

  • The only way the pollsters will ever be able to measure them is by asking longer questions and by empowering these people, telling them that if you speak to us, the world is gonna hear you.

    民調機構衡量他們的唯一方法就是問更長的問題,並賦予這些人權力,告訴他們,如果你對我們說話,全世界都會聽到你的聲音。

  • They're going to respect you.

    他們會尊重你的。

  • They're going to recognize you.

    他們會認出你來的

  • It actually requires a different questionnaire than what we normally would do with voters.

    這其實需要與我們平時對選民進行的問卷調查不同。

  • And those are the Children.

    而這些都是孩子們。

  • I think that's absolutely fascinating.

    我認為這絕對是迷人的。

  • Thank you both very much.

    非常感謝你們兩個。

  • Indeed.

    確實如此。

  • Really, really good to have your newsnight this evening.

    真的,真的很高興今晚有你的新聞之夜。

Emily.

艾米麗

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B1 中級 中文 特朗普 民調 拜登 選民 競選 拉丁裔

美國大選。為什麼民調是錯的?- BBC新聞之夜 (US election: Why were the polls wrong? - BBC Newsnight)

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    林宜悉 發佈於 2020 年 11 月 06 日
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