So, I'd like to talk about the development of human potential,

所以，我想談談人的潛能的開發。

and I'd like to start with maybe the most impactful modern story of development.

而我想從也許是最有影響的現代發展故事開始。

Many of you here have probably heard of the 10,000 hours rule.

在座的很多人可能都聽說過10000小時規則。

Maybe you even model your own life after it.

也許你連自己的生活都以它為藍本。

Basically, it's the idea that to become great in anything,

基本上，就是要在任何事情上變得偉大。

it takes 10,000 hours of focused practice,

它需要10000小時的專注練習。

so you'd better get started as early as possible.

所以你最好儘早開始。

The poster child for this story is Tiger Woods.

這個故事的海報人物是老虎伍茲。

His father famously gave him a putter when he was seven months old.

他的父親在他七個月大的時候給了他一個著名的推杆。

At 10 months, he started imitating his father's swing.

10個月時，他開始模仿父親的揮杆。

At two, you can go on YouTube and see him on national television.

兩歲的時候，你可以去YouTube上看他上國家電視臺。

Fast-forward to the age of 21,

快進到21歲的時候。

he's the greatest golfer in the world.

他是世界上最偉大的高爾夫球手。

Quintessential 10,000 hours story.

典型的10000小時故事。

Another that features in a number of bestselling books

另一個出現在多本暢銷書中的特點是

is that of the three Polgar sisters,

是波爾加三姐妹的。

whose father decided to teach them chess in a very technical manner

其父親決定以非常技術性的方式教他們下棋

from a very early age.

從很小的時候開始。

And, really, he wanted to show

而且，真的，他想表明

that with a head start in focused practice,

這與集中練習的頭緒。

any child could become a genius in anything.

任何孩子都可以成為任何事情的天才。

And in fact,

而事實上。

two of his daughters went on to become Grandmaster chess players.

他的兩個女兒後來成為了大師級棋手。

So when I became the science writer at "Sports Illustrated" magazine,

所以當我成為《體育畫報》雜誌的科普作家時。

I got curious.

我很好奇

If this 10,000 hours rule is correct,

如果這個10000小時的規則是正確的。

then we should see that elite athletes get a head start

那麼我們就應該看到，精英運動員得到了領先的發展。

in so-called "deliberate practice."

在所謂的 "故意做法 "中。

This is coached, error-correction-focused practice,

這就是教練式的、以糾錯為重點的練習。

not just playing around.

不只是玩玩而已。

And in fact, when scientists study elite athletes,

而事實上，當科學家研究精英運動員。

they see that they spend more time in deliberate practice --

他們看到自己花了更多的時間在刻意的練習上-----。

not a big surprise.

沒什麼好奇怪的

When they actually track athletes over the course of their development,

當他們真正跟蹤運動員的發展過程時。

the pattern looks like this:

模式是這樣的。

the future elites actually spend less time early on

未來的精英們其實在早期花費的時間更少

in deliberate practice in their eventual sport.

在其最終的運動中刻意練習。

They tend to have what scientists call a "sampling period,"

它們往往有科學家所說的 "取樣期"。

where they try a variety of physical activities,

在那裡，他們嘗試各種體育活動。

they gain broad, general skills,

他們獲得了廣泛的、通用的技能。

they learn about their interests and abilities

他們瞭解自己的興趣和能力

and delay specializing until later than peers who plateau at lower levels.

並比低水平的同齡人延後專業化的時間。

And so when I saw that, I said,

所以當我看到這句話時，我說。

"Gosh, that doesn't really comport with the 10,000 hours rule, does it?"

"天哪，這還真不符合一萬小時的規定吧？"

So I started to wonder about other domains

所以我開始想知道其他的域名

that we associate with obligatory, early specialization,

我們將其與強制性的、早期的專業化聯繫在一起。

like music.

喜歡音樂。

Turns out the pattern's often similar.

原來模式常相似的。

This is research from a world-class music academy,

這是來自世界級音樂學院的研究。

and what I want to draw your attention to is this:

而我想提請大家注意的是：

the exceptional musicians didn't start spending more time in deliberate practice

卓越的音樂家沒有開始花更多的時間在刻意的練習中

than the average musicians

勝過一般音樂人

until their third instrument.

直到他們的第三份文書。

They, too, tended to have a sampling period,

它們，也往往有一個抽樣期。

even musicians we think of as famously precocious,

甚至我們認為是著名的早熟的音樂家。

like Yo-Yo Ma.

像馬友友一樣。

He had a sampling period,

他有一個採樣期。

he just went through it more rapidly than most musicians do.

他只是比大多數音樂家更迅速地經歷了它。

Nonetheless, this research is almost entirely ignored,

儘管如此，這項研究幾乎被完全忽視。

and much more impactful

而且更有影響力

is the first page of the book "Battle Hymn of the Tiger Mother,"

是 "虎媽的戰歌 "的第一頁。

where the author recounts assigning her daughter violin.

在那裡，作者講述了她的女兒分配小提琴。

Nobody seems to remember the part later in the book

似乎沒有人記得書中後來的部分。

where her daughter turns to her and says, "You picked it, not me,"

她的女兒轉身對她說："是你挑的，不是我挑的"

and largely quits.

並基本退出。

So having seen this sort of surprising pattern in sports and music,

所以在體育和音樂上看到了這種令人驚訝的模式。

I started to wonder about domains that affect even more people,

我開始懷疑影響更多的人的域名。

like education.

如教育。

An economist found a natural experiment

一位經濟學家發現了一個自然實驗

in the higher-ed systems of England and Scotland.

在英格蘭和蘇格蘭的高等教育體系中。

In the period he studied, the systems were very similar,

在他所研究的時期，各系統非常相似。

except in England, students had to specialize in their mid-teen years

除了在英國，學生們必須在十幾歲的時候專門學習。

to pick a specific course of study to apply to,

來選擇具體的學習課程進行申請。

whereas in Scotland, they could keep trying things in the university

而在蘇格蘭，他們可以繼續在大學裡嘗試一些東西。

if they wanted to.

如果他們想。

And his question was:

而他的問題是：

Who wins the trade-off, the early or the late specializers?

早期的特長生和後期的特長生，誰能贏得取捨？

And what he saw was that the early specializers jump out to an income lead

而他所看到的是，早期的專賣者跳出收入領先

because they have more domain-specific skills.

因為他們擁有更多的特定領域技能。

The late specializers get to try more different things,

晚期的特長生可以嘗試更多不同的東西。

and when they do pick, they have better fit,

而當他們選擇時，他們有更好的配合。

or what economists call "match quality."

或經濟學家所說的 "匹配品質"。

And so their growth rates are faster.

所以他們的增長速度比較快。

By six years out,

到6年出。

they erase that income gap.

他們抹去了這種收入差距。

Meanwhile, the early specializers start quitting their career tracks

同時，早期的特種兵開始退出他們的職業軌道。

in much higher numbers,

在更高的數量。

essentially because they were made to choose so early

基本上是因為他們很早就被逼著做選擇

that they more often made poor choices.

他們更多的時候做出了錯誤的選擇。

So the late specializers lose in the short term

所以，後期專攻者短期內會虧損

and win in the long run.

並贏得長遠的發展。

I think if we thought about career choice like dating,

我想，如果我們把擇業當成交友一樣。

we might not pressure people to settle down quite so quickly.

我們可能不會這麼快就給人們施加壓力，讓他們安定下來。

So this got me interested, seeing this pattern again,

所以這讓我產生了興趣，又看到了這個圖案。

in exploring the developmental backgrounds of people whose work I had long admired,

在探索我長期以來所崇拜的人的發展背景時。

like Duke Ellington, who shunned music lessons as a kid

像艾靈頓公爵一樣，從小避開音樂課的人。

to focus on baseball and painting and drawing.

專注於棒球和畫畫。

Or Maryam Mirzakhani, who wasn't interested in math as a girl --

或者是Maryam Mirzakhani，她作為一個女孩對數學不感興趣------。

dreamed of becoming a novelist --

夢想成為一名小說家

and went on to become the first and so far only woman

併成為第一個，也是迄今為止唯一的一個女人。

to win the Fields Medal,

獲得菲爾茲獎章。

the most prestigious prize in the world in math.

世界上最負盛名的數學獎。

Or Vincent Van Gogh had five different careers,

或者文森特-梵高有五個不同的職業。

each of which he deemed his true calling before flaming out spectacularly,

每一個他都認為是他真正的呼喚，然後才壯觀地燃燒起來。

and in his late 20s, picked up a book called "The Guide to the ABCs of Drawing."

並在20多歲的時候，拿起了一本叫 "繪畫ABC指南 "的書。

That worked out OK.

結果還不錯。

Claude Shannon was an electrical engineer at the University of Michigan

克勞德-香農是密歇根大學的電氣工程師。

who took a philosophy course just to fulfill a requirement,

誰上了一門哲學課，只是為了完成一個要求。

and in it, he learned about a near-century-old system of logic

而在其中，他了解到一個近百年曆史的邏輯體系。

by which true and false statements could be coded as ones and zeros

真假話語可以被編碼為1和0。

and solved like math problems.

並像數學題一樣解決。

This led to the development of binary code,

這導致了二進制代碼的發展。

which underlies all of our digital computers today.

它是我們今天所有數字計算機的基礎。

Finally, my own sort of role model, Frances Hesselbein --

最後，我自己的那種榜樣，弗朗西斯-海瑟爾貝恩--。

this is me with her --

這是我和她 -

she took her first professional job at the age of 54

她在54歲的時候開始了她的第一份職業工作。

and went on to become the CEO of the Girl Scouts,

併成為女童子軍的CEO。

which she saved.

這是她救的。

She tripled minority membership,

她將少數族裔成員增加了三倍。

added 130,000 volunteers,

增加了13萬名志願者。

and this is one of the proficiency badges that came out of her tenure --

這是她任期內獲得的能力勳章之一...

it's binary code for girls learning about computers.

這是二進制代碼的女孩學習電腦。

Today, Frances runs a leadership institute

如今，Frances經營著一家領導力學院

where she works every weekday, in Manhattan.

她每個工作日都在曼哈頓工作。

And she's only 104,

而她只有104歲。

so who knows what's next.

所以誰也不知道接下來會發生什麼。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

We never really hear developmental stories like this, do we?

我們從來沒有真正聽到過這樣的發展故事，是嗎？

We don't hear about the research

我們沒有聽到研究的消息

that found that Nobel laureate scientists are 22 times more likely

該研究發現，諾貝爾獎得主科學家的可能性比普通人高出22倍。

to have a hobby outside of work

業餘愛好

as are typical scientists.

作為典型的科學家。

We never hear that.

我們從來沒有聽說過。

Even when the performers or the work is very famous,

即使表演者或作品非常有名。

we don't hear these developmental stories.

我們沒有聽到這些發展的故事。

For example, here's an athlete I've followed.

比如，這是我關注過的一個運動員。

Here he is at age six, wearing a Scottish rugby kit.

這是他六歲時，穿著蘇格蘭橄欖球服。

He tried some tennis, some skiing, wrestling.

他試過打網球，滑雪，摔跤。

His mother was actually a tennis coach but she declined to coach him

他的母親其實是個網球教練，但她拒絕了他的訓練

because he wouldn't return balls normally.

因為他不會正常回球。

He did some basketball, table tennis, swimming.

他打過籃球、乒乓球、游泳。

When his coaches wanted to move him up a level

當他的教練想讓他升一級的時候

to play with older boys,

和大男孩一起玩。

he declined, because he just wanted to talk about pro wrestling

他拒絕了，因為他只想談談職業摔跤的事。

after practice with his friends.

練完後和他的朋友。

And he kept trying more sports:

他還不斷嘗試更多的運動。

handball, volleyball, soccer, badminton, skateboarding ...

手球、排球、足球、羽毛球、滑板...。

So, who is this dabbler?

那麼，這個涉世未深的人是誰呢？

This is Roger Federer.

這是羅傑-費德勒。

Every bit as famous as an adult as Tiger Woods,

和老虎伍茲一樣，每一個成年人都很出名。

and yet even tennis enthusiasts don't usually know anything

然而，即使是網球愛好者，通常也不知道任何事情

about his developmental story.

關於他的發展故事。

Why is that, even though it's the norm?

雖然是常態，但為什麼會這樣呢？

I think it's partly because the Tiger story is very dramatic,

我想部分原因是老虎的故事很有戲劇性。

but also because it seems like this tidy narrative

但也因為它看起來像這個整齊的敘事。

that we can extrapolate to anything that we want to be good at

我們可以推斷出任何我們想要擅長的事情。

in our own lives.

在我們自己的生活中。

But that, I think, is a problem,

但我認為，這是個問題。

because it turns out that in many ways, golf is a uniquely horrible model

因為事實證明，在很多方面，高爾夫是一個獨特的可怕的模式。

of almost everything that humans want to learn.

的幾乎所有人類想要學習的東西。

(Laughter)

(笑聲)

Golf is the epitome of

高爾夫球是

what the psychologist Robin Hogarth called a "kind learning environment."

心理學家羅賓-霍加斯所說的 "善良的學習環境"。

Kind learning environments have next steps and goals that are clear,

善良的學習環境有下一步，目標明確。

rules that are clear and never change,

規則明確，永不改變。

when you do something, you get feedback that is quick and accurate,

當你做一件事時，你會得到快速準確的反饋。

work next year will look like work last year.

明年的工作會像去年的工作一樣。

Chess: also a kind learning environment.

棋：也是一種學習環境。

The grand master's advantage

大師的優勢

is largely based on knowledge of recurring patterns,

主要是基於對反覆出現的模式的瞭解。

which is also why it's so easy to automate.

這也是為什麼它很容易實現自動化的原因。

On the other end of the spectrum are "wicked learning environments,"

另一端是 "邪惡的學習環境"，。

where next steps and goals may not be clear.

今後的步驟和目標可能不明確；

Rules may change.

規則可能會改變。

You may or may not get feedback when you do something.

當你做某件事時，你可能會得到反饋，也可能不會。

It may be delayed, it may be inaccurate,

可能是延遲，可能是不準確。

and work next year may not look like work last year.

而明年的工作可能和去年的工作不一樣。

So which one of these sounds like the world we're increasingly living in?

那麼，哪一個聽起來像我們越來越生活在這個世界上呢？

In fact, our need to think in an adaptable manner

事實上，我們需要變通的思維方式。

and to keep track of interconnecting parts

並跟蹤相互關聯的部分

has fundamentally changed our perception,

已經從根本上改變了我們的觀念。

so that when you look at this diagram,

這樣，當你看這張圖的時候。

the central circle on the right probably looks larger to you

右邊的中央圓圈對你來說可能會顯得更大

because your brain is drawn to

因為你的大腦被吸引到

the relationship of the parts in the whole,

部分在整體中的關係。

whereas someone who hasn't been exposed to modern work

而一個沒有接觸過現代工作的人來說

with its requirement for adaptable, conceptual thought,

與其要求的適應性、概念性思維。

will see correctly that the central circles are the same size.

會正確看到中心圓的大小是一樣的。

So here we are in the wicked work world,

所以，我們在這邪惡的工作世界裡。

and there, sometimes hyperspecialization can backfire badly.

而在那裡，有時超專業性會產生嚴重的反作用。

For example, in research in a dozen countries

例如，在十幾個國家的研究中發現

that matched people for their parents' years of education,

匹配人們的父母教育年限。

their test scores,

其考試成績。

their own years of education,

自己的教育年限。

the difference was some got career-focused education

不同的是，有些人接受了以職業為重點的教育。

and some got broader, general education.

而有些人則得到了更廣泛、更普遍的教育。

The pattern was those who got the career-focused education

模式是那些接受職業教育的人。

are more likely to be hired right out of training,

更有可能在培訓後就被聘用。

more likely to make more money right away,

更有可能馬上賺到更多的錢。

but so much less adaptable in a changing work world

但在多變的職場中，卻少了許多適應性。

that they spend so much less time in the workforce overall

他們花在工作上的時間總體上要少得多。

that they win in the short term and lose in the long run.

他們在短期內贏了，在長期內輸了。

Or consider a famous, 20-year study of experts

或者考慮一個著名的，對專家進行了20年的研究。

making geopolitical and economic predictions.

進行地緣政治和經濟預測；

The worst forecasters were the most specialized experts,

最差的預報員是最專業的專家。

those who'd spent their entire careers studying one or two problems

埋頭苦幹者

and came to see the whole world through one lens or mental model.

並通過一個鏡頭或心理模型來觀察整個世界。

Some of them actually got worse

有些人實際上變得更糟

as they accumulated experience and credentials.

隨著他們積累的經驗和資歷。

The best forecasters were simply bright people with wide-ranging interests.

最好的預報員只是興趣廣泛的聰明人。

Now in some domains, like medicine,

現在在一些領域，比如醫學。

increasing specialization has been both inevitable and beneficial,

日益專業化的發展是必然的，也是有益的。

no question about it.

毫無疑問

And yet, it's been a double-edged sword.

然而，這也是一把雙刃劍。

A few years ago, one of the most popular surgeries in the world for knee pain

幾年前，世界上最流行的膝關節疼痛手術之一。

was tested in a placebo-controlled trial.

在安慰劑對照試驗中進行了測試。

Some of the patients got "sham surgery."

有的患者做了 "假手術"。

That means the surgeons make an incision,

這意味著外科醫生要開刀。

they bang around like they're doing something,

他們到處亂撞，像他們在做什麼。

then they sew the patient back up.

然後他們又把病人縫合起來

That performed just as a well.

這表現的一樣很好。

And yet surgeons who specialize in the procedure continue to do it

但專門從事該手術的外科醫生仍在繼續進行該手術

by the millions.

以百萬計。

So if hyperspecialization isn't always the trick in a wicked world, what is?

所以，如果說在邪惡的世界裡，超專業化不一定是訣竅，那麼什麼才是呢？

That can be difficult to talk about,

這可就難說了。

because it doesn't always look like this path.

因為它並不總是這樣的路徑。

Sometimes it looks like meandering or zigzagging

有時看起來像蜿蜒或曲折的

or keeping a broader view.

或保持更廣闊的視野。

It can look like getting behind.

它可以看起來像越來越落後。

But I want to talk about what some of those tricks might be.