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  • Chris Anderson: Al, welcome.

    譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Regina Chu

  • So look, just six months ago --

    克里斯.安德森:艾爾,歡迎。

  • it seems a lifetime ago, but it really was just six months ago --

    不過六個月前——

  • climate seemed to be on the lips of every thinking person on the planet.

    感覺跟一輩子一樣長, 但其實不過是在六個月前——

  • Recent events seem to have swept it all away from our attention.

    幾乎每個會思考的人 都在談論氣候。

  • How worried are you about that?

    最近的事件似乎 把我們的注意力都轉移了。

  • Al Gore: Well, first of all Chris, thank you so much for inviting me

    你對此有多擔心?

  • to have this conversation.

    艾爾.高爾:首先,克里斯, 謝謝你邀請我來參加這次的談話。

  • People are reacting differently

    當遇到其他重大困難 帶走我們的注意力時,

  • to the climate crisis

    大家對氣候危機的反應都不同,

  • in the midst of these other great challenges

    這是情有可緣的。

  • that have taken over our awareness,

    其中一個理由就是你剛剛提到的,

  • appropriately.

    大家都知道,當科學家

  • One reason is something that you mentioned.

    用更可怕的詞語來警告我們,

  • People get the fact that when scientists are warning us

    火燒眉毛了,可以這麼說,

  • in ever more dire terms

    那最好聽聽他們要說什麼,

  • and setting their hair on fire, so to speak,

    且我想,這個教訓已經開始 以新的方式沉澱了。

  • it's best to listen to what they're saying,

    順道一提,還有一個相似點,

  • and I think that lesson has begun to sink in in a new way.

    和新型冠狀病毒疫情一樣,

  • Another similarity, by the way,

    氣候危機也用新的方式揭示出

  • is that the climate crisis, like the COVID-19 pandemic,

    令人震驚的不公平、不平等,及差距

  • has revealed in a new way

    如何影響到有色人種

  • the shocking injustices and inequalities and disparities

    以及低收入的族群。

  • that affect communities of color

    但兩者也有差別。

  • and low-income communities.

    氣候危機的影響效應

  • There are differences.

    不像疫情是用年來測量的,

  • The climate crisis has effects that are not measured in years,

    其後果是用世紀或甚至 更長的單位來測量。

  • as the pandemic is,

    還有一個差別,

  • but consequences that are measured in centuries and even longer.

    在處理氣候危機時 不需要壓抑經濟活動,

  • And the other difference is that instead of depressing economic activity

    像全世界各國 在處理新冠肺炎時一樣,

  • to deal with the climate crisis,

    我們有機會可以 創造出數千萬個新工作。

  • as nations around the world have had to do with COVID-19,

    那聽起來像是政治說法,

  • we have the opportunity to create tens of millions of new jobs.

    但那是真的。

  • That sounds like a political phrasing,

    過去五年,

  • but it's literally true.

    美國成長最快速的工作 是安裝太陽能板。

  • For the last five years,

    第二快的是風力渦輪機技師。

  • the fastest-growing job in the US has been solar installer.

    幾週前,《牛津經濟政策評論》

  • The second-fastest has been wind turbine technician.

    指出了一種能提供許多 工作機會的恢復方式,

  • And the "Oxford Review of Economics," just a few weeks ago,

    那就是著重可再生能源和永續科技。

  • pointed the way to a very jobs-rich recovery

    我想我們已經走到了關鍵轉折點,

  • if we emphasize renewable energy and sustainability technology.

    只要看看全世界

  • So I think we are crossing a tipping point,

    各國的恢復計畫,

  • and you need only look at the recovery plans

    就可以發現他們非常強調綠色恢復。

  • that are being presented in nations around the world

    克:疫情的明顯衝擊之一

  • to see that they're very much focused on a green recovery.

    就是它讓全世界的經濟嚴重停滯,

  • CA: I mean, one obvious impact of the pandemic

    因此減少了溫室氣體的排放。

  • is that it's brought the world's economy to a shuddering halt,

    那效應有多大?

  • thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    且那完全可說是好消息嗎?

  • I mean, how big an effect has that been,

    艾:克里斯,那其實有點像是幻影,

  • and is it unambiguously good news?

    只要回頭看看 2008、

  • AG: Well, it's a little bit of an illusion, Chris,

    2009 年的大蕭條,

  • and you need only look back to the Great Recession in 2008 and '09,

    那時的排放只下降了 1%,

  • when there was a one percent decline in emissions,

    但,接著,2010 年,

  • but then in 2010,

    在經濟恢復時, 排放量又轟轟烈烈地回來了,

  • they came roaring back during the recovery

    增加了 4%。

  • with a four percent increase.

    最新的估計值是, 在疫情造成的「昏睡」期間,

  • The latest estimates are that emissions will go down by at least five percent

    排放會下降至少 5%,

  • during this induced coma,

    這是很有洞察力的經濟學家 保羅·克魯曼所做的描述,

  • as the economist Paul Krugman perceptively described it,

    但是否會步上大蕭條的後塵,

  • but whether it goes back the way it did after the Great Recession

    有部分是取決於我們,

  • is in part up to us,

    如果能真正實施這些綠色恢復計畫,

  • and if these green recovery plans are actually implemented,

    且我知道有許多國家 都有決心要實施,

  • and I know many countries are determined to implement them,

    那麼我們不見得會重蹈覆轍。

  • then we need not repeat that pattern.

    畢竟,在整個過程發生的時期,

  • After all, this whole process is occurring

    在一段時間內,

  • during a period when the cost of renewable energy

    可再生能源的成本, 如電動車、電池,

  • and electric vehicles, batteries

    以及許多其他永續方法的成本

  • and a range of other sustainability approaches

    都持續在降價,

  • are continuing to fall in price,

    讓它們變得更有競爭優勢。

  • and they're becoming much more competitive.

    讓我簡短提一下這速度有多快:

  • Just a quick reference to how fast this is:

    五年前,太陽能和風力發電

  • five years ago, electricity from solar and wind

    比化石燃料發電便宜的國家,

  • was cheaper than electricity from fossil fuels

    只佔全世界國家的 1%。

  • in only one percent of the world.

    今年,這個比例提升為 全世界三分之二的國家,

  • This year, it's cheaper in two-thirds of the world,

    五年後的未來,

  • and five years from now,

    在全世界所有國家都會比較便宜。

  • it will be cheaper in virtually 100 percent of the world.

    兩年內,電動車在成本上 就會具有競爭力,

  • EVs will be cost-competitive within two years,

    接著價格還會持續下降。

  • and then will continue falling in price.

    所以,有些改變正在發生,

  • And so there are changes underway

    那有可能會打破我們在 大蕭條後所見到的模式。

  • that could interrupt the pattern we saw after the Great Recession.

    克:世界各地的價格 之所以會有所差別

  • CA: The reason those pricing differentials happen in different parts of the world

    很顯然是因為各地的 太陽量和風量不同,

  • is obviously because there's different amounts of sunshine and wind there

    還有不同的建築成本等等。

  • and different building costs and so forth.

    艾:是的,政府政策 也有很大的影響。

  • AG: Well, yes, and government policies also account for a lot.

    世界持續在補助化石燃料,

  • The world is continuing to subsidize fossil fuels

    且量十分荒謬,

  • at a ridiculous amount,

    比起美國和已開發國家, 開發中國家更多這樣的現象,

  • more so in many developing countries than in the US and developed countries,

    但在這裡其實也有補助。

  • but it's subsidized here as well.

    但,世界上每個地方,

  • But everywhere in the world,

    風力和太陽能都將會變成

  • wind and solar will be cheaper as a source of electricity

    比化石燃料更便宜的電力來源,

  • than fossil fuels,

    且幾年內就會實現。

  • within a few years.

    克:我曾經聽過一個說法,

  • CA: I think I've heard it said that the fall in emissions

    疫情造成的排放下降

  • caused by the pandemic

    其實還不到我們若想達成排放目標

  • isn't that much more than, actually, the fall that we will need

    每年需要減少的排放量。

  • every single year

    是這樣嗎?如果是,

  • if we're to meet emissions targets.

    那不是會讓人非常氣餒嗎?

  • Is that true, and, if so,

    艾:的確看起來很讓人氣餒, 但先看看數字。

  • doesn't that seem impossibly daunting?

    那個數字來自一年多前的研究,

  • AG: It does seem daunting, but first look at the number.

    由政府間氣候變化專門委員會公佈,

  • That number came from a study a little over a year ago

    談的是要如何避免地球的溫度

  • released by the IPCC

    增加攝氏一點五度以上。

  • as to what it would take to keep the Earth's temperatures from increasing

    是的,

  • more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

    相對於我們在疫情所見到的減量,

  • And yes, the annual reductions would be significant,

    要達成目標每年需減少的量很可觀。

  • on the order of what we've seen with the pandemic.

    且,是的,這很讓人氣餒。然而,

  • And yes, that does seem daunting.

    我們確實有機會 做出一些重大的改變,

  • However, we do have the opportunity to make some fairly dramatic changes,

    且這個計畫並不是個謎。

  • and the plan is not a mystery.

    從與有效轉變有最密切關聯的 兩個產業別開始著手——

  • You start with the two sectors that are closest to an effective transition --

    發電,我剛才有提過——

  • electricity generation, as I mentioned --

    去年,2019 年,

  • and last year, 2019,

    如果去看全世界所有

  • if you look at all of the new electricity generation built

    新建造的發電設施,

  • all around the world,

    當中有 72% 是用 太陽能和風力發電。

  • 72 percent of it was from solar and wind.

    在沒有持續補助化石燃料的情況下,

  • And already, without the continuing subsidies for fossil fuels,

    我們將會看到更多這類發電廠關門。

  • we would see many more of these plants

    有些新建的化石燃料發電廠,

  • being shut down.

    但關門的數量更多。

  • There are some new fossil plants being built,

    至於運輸,

  • but many more are being shut down.

    第二個蓄勢待發的產業別,

  • And where transportation is concerned,

    除了我先前提到的, 電動車的價格變得更便宜,

  • the second sector ready to go,

    全世界還有四十五個轄區——

  • in addition to the cheaper prices for EVs that I made reference to before,

    國家、地區、都市——

  • there are some 45 jurisdictions around the world --

    已經通過法律

  • national, regional and municipal --

    要開始淘汰內燃機。

  • where laws have been passed beginning a phaseout

    就連印度也說,在不到 十年後的 2030 年,

  • of internal combustion engines.

    在印度銷售任何新的內燃機

  • Even India said that by 2030, less than 10 years from now,

    就會觸犯法律。

  • it will be illegal to sell any new internal combustion engines

    還有許多其他例子。

  • in India.

    所以,

  • There are many other examples.

    過去的減量雖然不多,

  • So the past small reductions

    但那些數字可能無法精確代表 我們能達成的成果,

  • may not be an accurate guide to the kind we can achieve

    因為我們現在有認真的國家級計畫

  • with serious national plans

    以及聚焦的全球合作。

  • and a focused global effort.

    克:艾爾,幫大家了解一下大局。

  • CA: So help us understand just the big picture here, Al.

    我想,在疫情之前,

  • I think before the pandemic,

    全世界會排放

  • the world was emitting

    大約五百五十億公噸的 所謂「二氧化碳當量」,

  • about 55 gigatons of what they call "CO2 equivalent,"

    包括其他溫室氣體,比如甲烷,

  • so that includes other greenhouse gases

    都算在二氧化碳當量裡面。

  • like methane dialed up to be the equivalent of CO2.

    我這樣說是否正確? 科學家組合的全球性組織

  • And am I right in saying that the IPCC,

    政府間氣候變化專門委員會

  • which is the global organization of scientists,

    指出處理這場危機的唯一方式

  • is recommending that the only way to fix this crisis

    就是最少最少也要在 2050 年

  • is to get that number from 55 to zero

    把那個數字從五百五十降到零,

  • by 2050 at the very latest,

    就算做到了,仍然有可能到最後

  • and that even then, there's a chance that we will end up with temperature rises

    溫度會上升攝氏兩度 而非一點五度?

  • more like two degrees Celsius rather than 1.5?

    這是否大致上是政府間 氣候變化專門委員會

  • I mean, is that approximately the big picture

    所建議的整體狀況?

  • of what the IPCC is recommending?

    艾:是的。

  • AG: That's correct.

    在巴黎會議所設定的全球目標

  • The global goal established in the Paris Conference

    是要在 2050 年達到 全球的淨值為零,

  • is to get to net zero on a global basis

    許多人馬上就補充說

  • by 2050,

    那就表示在 2030 年 要達成減量 45%~50%,

  • and many people quickly add

    才有可能達成淨值為零。

  • that that really means a 45 to 50 percent reduction by 2030

    克:那種時間表是大家 幾乎無法想像的。

  • to make that pathway to net zero feasible.

    很難想像超過三十年的政策 會是什麼樣子。所以,

  • CA: And that kind of timeline is the kind of timeline

    那其實是極佳的簡略表達,

  • where people couldn't even imagine it.

    人類的任務就是要在 2030 年之前把排放減半,

  • It's just hard to think of policy over 30 years.

    約略來說,

  • So that's actually a very good shorthand,

    我想可以歸結為大約

  • that humanity's task is to cut emissions in half by 2030,

    一年要減少 7% 或 8%,

  • approximately speaking,

    如果我沒搞錯,應該是這樣。

  • which I think boils down to about a seven or eight percent reduction a year,

    艾:不見得。不見得那麼大, 但,很接近,沒錯。

  • something like that, if I'm not wrong.

    克:所以我們今年所經歷到的效應

  • AG: Not quite. Not quite that large

    也許是必要的。

  • but close, yes.

    今年,基本上,我們透過 閉關經濟辦到了這件事。

  • CA: So it is something like the effect that we've experienced this year

    你剛才有談到, 在接下來數年要怎麼做

  • may be necessary.

    才能帶來經濟成長和新工作。

  • This year, we've done it by basically shutting down the economy.

    請再多談談這些。

  • You're talking about a way of doing it over the coming years

    你提到改變我們的能源來源,

  • that actually gives some economic growth and new jobs.

    改變運輸的方式。

  • So talk more about that.

    如果我們去做這些,

  • You've referred to changing our energy sources,

    能解決問題的多少比例?

  • changing how we transport.

    艾:嗯,我們可以——

  • If we did those things,

    除了致力於我剛才 提到的兩個產業別之外,

  • how much of the problem does that solve?

    我們也得要處理製造業 以及所有的使用案例,

  • AG: Well, we can get to --

    只要需要用到攝氏一千度 高溫的都得處理,

  • well, in addition to doing the two sectors that I mentioned,

    且這些也有解決方案。

  • we also have to deal with manufacturing and all the use cases

    我等下會再談到德國在著手進行的 一個解決方案,很讓人興奮。

  • that require temperatures of a thousand degrees Celsius,

    我們也得要處理再生農業。

  • and there are solutions there as well.

    有機會

  • I'll come back and mention an exciting one that Germany has just embarked upon.

    可以把大量的碳

  • We also have to tackle regenerative agriculture.

    封存在全世界的表土層,

  • There is the opportunity to sequester a great deal of carbon

    這會需要改變農業技術。

  • in topsoils around the world

    有個由農民領導的運動 就是在做這件事。

  • by changing the agricultural techniques.

    我們也需要將建築物翻新。

  • There is a farmer-led movement to do that.

    我們需要改變我們對森林 和海洋的管理方式。

  • We need to also retrofit buildings.

    但,讓我簡短提一下兩件事。

  • We need to change our management of forests and the ocean.

    首先,高溫的使用案例。

  • But let me just mention two things briefly.

    十天前,安格拉·梅克爾

  • First of all, the high temperature use cases.

    再加上她的好友及很出色的公僕

  • Angela Merkel, just 10 days ago,

    彼得·阿特麥爾部長的領導,

  • with the leadership of her minister Peter Altmaier,

    他們開始著手進行綠氫策略,

  • who is a good friend and a great public servant,

    用完全沒有邊際成本的可再生能源

  • have just embarked on a green hydrogen strategy

    來製造氫。

  • to make hydrogen

    讓我快速說一句,克里斯:

  • with zero marginal cost renewable energy.

    你應該聽過風力 和太陽能的間歇現象——

  • And just a word on that, Chris:

    沒有陽光普照時, 太陽能就無法發電,

  • you've heard about the intermittency of wind and solar --

    沒有風吹時風力就無法發電——

  • solar doesn't produce electricity when the sun's not shining,

    但電池變得越來越好,

  • and wind doesn't when the wind's not blowing --

    而這些技術變得更有效率且強大,

  • but batteries are getting better,

    所以每天有越來越多的時間,

  • and these technologies are becoming much more efficient and powerful,

    它們所產生的電力 都遠超過需要使用的量。

  • so that for an increasing number of hours of each day,

    所以,該怎麼辦?

  • they're producing often way more electricity than can be used.

    下一個千瓦小時的邊際成本是零。

  • So what to do with it?

    所以,突然間,

  • The marginal cost for the next kilowatt-hour is zero.

    需要大量能源從水分解出氫的過程

  • So all of a sudden,

    在經濟上竟然變成可行的,

  • the very energy-intensive process of cracking hydrogen from water

    且可以取代掉煤和天然氣,

  • becomes economically feasible,

    這是已經在施行的了。

  • and it can be substituted for coal and gas,

    有一間瑞典公司 已經在用綠氫來製鋼,

  • and that's already being done.

    我剛說過,德國為此 在著手進行一項新的大計畫。

  • There's a Swedish company already making steel with green hydrogen,

    我想,他們是在 為世界其他國家指路。

  • and, as I say, Germany has just embarked on a major new initiative to do that.

    至於建築物的翻修, 讓我稍微說一下,

  • I think they're pointing the way for the rest of the world.

    因為在全世界和在美國,

  • Now, where building retrofits are concerned, just a moment on this,

    全球暖化污染中 有大約 20%~25%

  • because about 20 to 25 percent of the global warming pollution

    是來自效能不佳的建築物,

  • in the world and in the US

    建造這些建築物的公司和人

  • comes from inefficient buildings

    想的是市場上的競爭力,

  • that were constructed by companies and individuals

    以及要讓他們的利潤 高到能接受的程度,

  • who were trying to be competitive in the marketplace

    因此不會花心思在絕緣、

  • and keep their margins acceptably high

    正確的窗戶、LED 燈等等。

  • and thereby skimping on insulation and the right windows

    但購買或租用

  • and LEDs and the rest.

    這些建築物的公司或人,

  • And yet the person or company that buys that building

    他們希望每月的 水電瓦斯費能低很多。

  • or leases that building,

    現在有方法

  • they want their monthly utility bills much lower.

    可以減少這種所謂的 代理委託落差,

  • So there are now ways

    給建造者和居住者不同的獎勵,

  • to close that so-called agent-principal divide,

    翻新建築物的部分, 我們可以用三到五年後

  • the differing incentives for the builder and occupier,

    就可以省下足以支付 費用的方案來進行,

  • and we can retrofit buildings with a program that literally pays for itself

    且我們可以讓數千萬人有工作可做,

  • over three to five years,

    這些工作在定義上就無法外包,

  • and we could put tens of millions of people to work

    因為它們存在於每一個社區中。

  • in jobs that by definition cannot be outsourced

    我們真的應該要認真考慮這麼做,

  • because they exist in every single community.

    因為我們會需要所有這些工作,

  • And we really ought to get serious about doing this,

    才能在這次疫情之後 達成永續的繁榮。

  • because we're going to need all those jobs

    克:回到你提及的氫經濟,

  • to get sustainable prosperity in the aftermath of this pandemic.

    當大家聽到氫經濟,會想: 「你指的是用氫當燃料的車嗎?」

  • CA: Just going back to the hydrogen economy

    他們曾經聽過這種策略並不會成功。

  • that you referred to there,

    但我想你所想的應該更廣泛許多,

  • when some people hear that,

    並不只是把氫當作某種貯存機制,

  • they think, "Oh, are you talking about hydrogen-fueled cars?"

    扮演可再生能源的緩衝,

  • And they've heard that that probably won't be a winning strategy.

    你還有考量氫在經濟的 其他過程中可能也很重要,

  • But you're thinking much more broadly than that, I think,

    如製造鋼、製造水泥,