So look, just six months ago --

克里斯．安德森：艾爾，歡迎。

it seems a lifetime ago, but it really was just six months ago --

不過六個月前——

climate seemed to be on the lips of every thinking person on the planet.

感覺跟一輩子一樣長， 但其實不過是在六個月前——

Recent events seem to have swept it all away from our attention.

幾乎每個會思考的人 都在談論氣候。

How worried are you about that?

最近的事件似乎 把我們的注意力都轉移了。

Al Gore: Well, first of all Chris, thank you so much for inviting me

你對此有多擔心？

to have this conversation.

艾爾．高爾：首先，克里斯， 謝謝你邀請我來參加這次的談話。

People are reacting differently

當遇到其他重大困難 帶走我們的注意力時，

to the climate crisis

大家對氣候危機的反應都不同，

in the midst of these other great challenges

這是情有可緣的。

that have taken over our awareness,

其中一個理由就是你剛剛提到的，

appropriately.

大家都知道，當科學家

One reason is something that you mentioned.

用更可怕的詞語來警告我們，

People get the fact that when scientists are warning us

火燒眉毛了，可以這麼說，

in ever more dire terms

那最好聽聽他們要說什麼，

and setting their hair on fire, so to speak,

且我想，這個教訓已經開始 以新的方式沉澱了。

it's best to listen to what they're saying,

順道一提，還有一個相似點，

and I think that lesson has begun to sink in in a new way.

和新型冠狀病毒疫情一樣，

Another similarity, by the way,

氣候危機也用新的方式揭示出

is that the climate crisis, like the COVID-19 pandemic,

令人震驚的不公平、不平等，及差距

has revealed in a new way

如何影響到有色人種

the shocking injustices and inequalities and disparities

以及低收入的族群。

that affect communities of color

但兩者也有差別。

and low-income communities.

氣候危機的影響效應

There are differences.

不像疫情是用年來測量的，

The climate crisis has effects that are not measured in years,

其後果是用世紀或甚至 更長的單位來測量。

as the pandemic is,

還有一個差別，

but consequences that are measured in centuries and even longer.

在處理氣候危機時 不需要壓抑經濟活動，

And the other difference is that instead of depressing economic activity

像全世界各國 在處理新冠肺炎時一樣，

to deal with the climate crisis,

我們有機會可以 創造出數千萬個新工作。

as nations around the world have had to do with COVID-19,

那聽起來像是政治說法，

we have the opportunity to create tens of millions of new jobs.

但那是真的。

That sounds like a political phrasing,

過去五年，

but it's literally true.

美國成長最快速的工作 是安裝太陽能板。

For the last five years,

第二快的是風力渦輪機技師。

the fastest-growing job in the US has been solar installer.

幾週前，《牛津經濟政策評論》

The second-fastest has been wind turbine technician.

指出了一種能提供許多 工作機會的恢復方式，

And the "Oxford Review of Economics," just a few weeks ago,

那就是著重可再生能源和永續科技。

pointed the way to a very jobs-rich recovery

我想我們已經走到了關鍵轉折點，

if we emphasize renewable energy and sustainability technology.

只要看看全世界

So I think we are crossing a tipping point,

各國的恢復計畫，

and you need only look at the recovery plans

就可以發現他們非常強調綠色恢復。

that are being presented in nations around the world

克：疫情的明顯衝擊之一

to see that they're very much focused on a green recovery.

就是它讓全世界的經濟嚴重停滯，

CA: I mean, one obvious impact of the pandemic

因此減少了溫室氣體的排放。

is that it's brought the world's economy to a shuddering halt,

那效應有多大？

thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

且那完全可說是好消息嗎？

I mean, how big an effect has that been,

艾：克里斯，那其實有點像是幻影，

and is it unambiguously good news?

只要回頭看看 2008、

AG: Well, it's a little bit of an illusion, Chris,

2009 年的大蕭條，

and you need only look back to the Great Recession in 2008 and '09,

那時的排放只下降了 1%，

when there was a one percent decline in emissions,

但，接著，2010 年，

but then in 2010,

在經濟恢復時， 排放量又轟轟烈烈地回來了，

they came roaring back during the recovery

增加了 4%。

with a four percent increase.

最新的估計值是， 在疫情造成的「昏睡」期間，

The latest estimates are that emissions will go down by at least five percent

排放會下降至少 5%，

during this induced coma,

這是很有洞察力的經濟學家 保羅·克魯曼所做的描述，

as the economist Paul Krugman perceptively described it,

但是否會步上大蕭條的後塵，

but whether it goes back the way it did after the Great Recession

有部分是取決於我們，

is in part up to us,

如果能真正實施這些綠色恢復計畫，

and if these green recovery plans are actually implemented,

且我知道有許多國家 都有決心要實施，

and I know many countries are determined to implement them,

那麼我們不見得會重蹈覆轍。

then we need not repeat that pattern.

畢竟，在整個過程發生的時期，

After all, this whole process is occurring

在一段時間內，

during a period when the cost of renewable energy

可再生能源的成本， 如電動車、電池，

and electric vehicles, batteries

以及許多其他永續方法的成本

and a range of other sustainability approaches

都持續在降價，

are continuing to fall in price,

讓它們變得更有競爭優勢。

and they're becoming much more competitive.

讓我簡短提一下這速度有多快：

Just a quick reference to how fast this is:

五年前，太陽能和風力發電

five years ago, electricity from solar and wind

比化石燃料發電便宜的國家，

was cheaper than electricity from fossil fuels

只佔全世界國家的 1%。

in only one percent of the world.

今年，這個比例提升為 全世界三分之二的國家，

This year, it's cheaper in two-thirds of the world,

五年後的未來，

and five years from now,

在全世界所有國家都會比較便宜。

it will be cheaper in virtually 100 percent of the world.

兩年內，電動車在成本上 就會具有競爭力，

EVs will be cost-competitive within two years,

接著價格還會持續下降。

and then will continue falling in price.

所以，有些改變正在發生，

And so there are changes underway

那有可能會打破我們在 大蕭條後所見到的模式。

that could interrupt the pattern we saw after the Great Recession.

克：世界各地的價格 之所以會有所差別

CA: The reason those pricing differentials happen in different parts of the world

很顯然是因為各地的 太陽量和風量不同，

is obviously because there's different amounts of sunshine and wind there

還有不同的建築成本等等。

and different building costs and so forth.

艾：是的，政府政策 也有很大的影響。

AG: Well, yes, and government policies also account for a lot.

世界持續在補助化石燃料，

The world is continuing to subsidize fossil fuels

且量十分荒謬，

at a ridiculous amount,

比起美國和已開發國家， 開發中國家更多這樣的現象，

more so in many developing countries than in the US and developed countries,

但在這裡其實也有補助。

but it's subsidized here as well.

但，世界上每個地方，

But everywhere in the world,

風力和太陽能都將會變成

wind and solar will be cheaper as a source of electricity

比化石燃料更便宜的電力來源，

than fossil fuels,

且幾年內就會實現。

within a few years.

克：我曾經聽過一個說法，

CA: I think I've heard it said that the fall in emissions

疫情造成的排放下降

caused by the pandemic

其實還不到我們若想達成排放目標

isn't that much more than, actually, the fall that we will need

每年需要減少的排放量。

every single year

是這樣嗎？如果是，

if we're to meet emissions targets.

那不是會讓人非常氣餒嗎？

Is that true, and, if so,

艾：的確看起來很讓人氣餒， 但先看看數字。

doesn't that seem impossibly daunting?

那個數字來自一年多前的研究，

AG: It does seem daunting, but first look at the number.

由政府間氣候變化專門委員會公佈，

That number came from a study a little over a year ago

談的是要如何避免地球的溫度

released by the IPCC

增加攝氏一點五度以上。

as to what it would take to keep the Earth's temperatures from increasing

是的，

more than 1.5 degrees Celsius.

相對於我們在疫情所見到的減量，

And yes, the annual reductions would be significant,

要達成目標每年需減少的量很可觀。

on the order of what we've seen with the pandemic.

且，是的，這很讓人氣餒。然而，

And yes, that does seem daunting.

我們確實有機會 做出一些重大的改變，

However, we do have the opportunity to make some fairly dramatic changes,

且這個計畫並不是個謎。

and the plan is not a mystery.

從與有效轉變有最密切關聯的 兩個產業別開始著手——

You start with the two sectors that are closest to an effective transition --

發電，我剛才有提過——

electricity generation, as I mentioned --

去年，2019 年，

and last year, 2019,

如果去看全世界所有

if you look at all of the new electricity generation built

新建造的發電設施，

all around the world,

當中有 72% 是用 太陽能和風力發電。

72 percent of it was from solar and wind.

在沒有持續補助化石燃料的情況下，

And already, without the continuing subsidies for fossil fuels,

我們將會看到更多這類發電廠關門。

we would see many more of these plants

有些新建的化石燃料發電廠，

being shut down.

但關門的數量更多。

There are some new fossil plants being built,

至於運輸，

but many more are being shut down.

第二個蓄勢待發的產業別，

And where transportation is concerned,

除了我先前提到的， 電動車的價格變得更便宜，

the second sector ready to go,

全世界還有四十五個轄區——

in addition to the cheaper prices for EVs that I made reference to before,

國家、地區、都市——

there are some 45 jurisdictions around the world --

已經通過法律

national, regional and municipal --

要開始淘汰內燃機。

where laws have been passed beginning a phaseout

就連印度也說，在不到 十年後的 2030 年，

of internal combustion engines.

在印度銷售任何新的內燃機

Even India said that by 2030, less than 10 years from now,

就會觸犯法律。

it will be illegal to sell any new internal combustion engines

還有許多其他例子。

in India.

所以，

There are many other examples.

過去的減量雖然不多，

So the past small reductions

但那些數字可能無法精確代表 我們能達成的成果，

may not be an accurate guide to the kind we can achieve

因為我們現在有認真的國家級計畫

with serious national plans

以及聚焦的全球合作。

and a focused global effort.

克：艾爾，幫大家了解一下大局。

CA: So help us understand just the big picture here, Al.

我想，在疫情之前，

I think before the pandemic,

全世界會排放

the world was emitting

大約五百五十億公噸的 所謂「二氧化碳當量」，

about 55 gigatons of what they call "CO2 equivalent,"

包括其他溫室氣體，比如甲烷，

so that includes other greenhouse gases

都算在二氧化碳當量裡面。

like methane dialed up to be the equivalent of CO2.

我這樣說是否正確？ 科學家組合的全球性組織

And am I right in saying that the IPCC,

政府間氣候變化專門委員會

which is the global organization of scientists,

指出處理這場危機的唯一方式

is recommending that the only way to fix this crisis

就是最少最少也要在 2050 年

is to get that number from 55 to zero

把那個數字從五百五十降到零，

by 2050 at the very latest,

就算做到了，仍然有可能到最後

and that even then, there's a chance that we will end up with temperature rises

溫度會上升攝氏兩度 而非一點五度？

more like two degrees Celsius rather than 1.5?

這是否大致上是政府間 氣候變化專門委員會

I mean, is that approximately the big picture

所建議的整體狀況？

of what the IPCC is recommending?

艾：是的。

AG: That's correct.

在巴黎會議所設定的全球目標

The global goal established in the Paris Conference

是要在 2050 年達到 全球的淨值為零，

is to get to net zero on a global basis

許多人馬上就補充說

by 2050,

那就表示在 2030 年 要達成減量 45%~50%，

and many people quickly add

才有可能達成淨值為零。

that that really means a 45 to 50 percent reduction by 2030

克：那種時間表是大家 幾乎無法想像的。

to make that pathway to net zero feasible.

很難想像超過三十年的政策 會是什麼樣子。所以，

CA: And that kind of timeline is the kind of timeline

那其實是極佳的簡略表達，

where people couldn't even imagine it.

人類的任務就是要在 2030 年之前把排放減半，

It's just hard to think of policy over 30 years.

約略來說，

So that's actually a very good shorthand,

我想可以歸結為大約

that humanity's task is to cut emissions in half by 2030,

一年要減少 7% 或 8%，

approximately speaking,

如果我沒搞錯，應該是這樣。

which I think boils down to about a seven or eight percent reduction a year,

艾：不見得。不見得那麼大， 但，很接近，沒錯。

something like that, if I'm not wrong.

克：所以我們今年所經歷到的效應

AG: Not quite. Not quite that large

也許是必要的。

but close, yes.

今年，基本上，我們透過 閉關經濟辦到了這件事。

CA: So it is something like the effect that we've experienced this year

你剛才有談到， 在接下來數年要怎麼做

may be necessary.

才能帶來經濟成長和新工作。

This year, we've done it by basically shutting down the economy.

請再多談談這些。

You're talking about a way of doing it over the coming years

你提到改變我們的能源來源，

that actually gives some economic growth and new jobs.

改變運輸的方式。

So talk more about that.

如果我們去做這些，

You've referred to changing our energy sources,

能解決問題的多少比例？

changing how we transport.

艾：嗯，我們可以——

If we did those things,

除了致力於我剛才 提到的兩個產業別之外，

how much of the problem does that solve?

我們也得要處理製造業 以及所有的使用案例，

AG: Well, we can get to --

只要需要用到攝氏一千度 高溫的都得處理，

well, in addition to doing the two sectors that I mentioned,

且這些也有解決方案。

we also have to deal with manufacturing and all the use cases

我等下會再談到德國在著手進行的 一個解決方案，很讓人興奮。

that require temperatures of a thousand degrees Celsius,

我們也得要處理再生農業。

and there are solutions there as well.

有機會

I'll come back and mention an exciting one that Germany has just embarked upon.

可以把大量的碳

We also have to tackle regenerative agriculture.

封存在全世界的表土層，

There is the opportunity to sequester a great deal of carbon

這會需要改變農業技術。

in topsoils around the world

有個由農民領導的運動 就是在做這件事。

by changing the agricultural techniques.

我們也需要將建築物翻新。

There is a farmer-led movement to do that.

我們需要改變我們對森林 和海洋的管理方式。

We need to also retrofit buildings.

但，讓我簡短提一下兩件事。

We need to change our management of forests and the ocean.

首先，高溫的使用案例。

But let me just mention two things briefly.

十天前，安格拉·梅克爾

First of all, the high temperature use cases.

再加上她的好友及很出色的公僕

Angela Merkel, just 10 days ago,

彼得·阿特麥爾部長的領導，

with the leadership of her minister Peter Altmaier,

他們開始著手進行綠氫策略，

who is a good friend and a great public servant,

用完全沒有邊際成本的可再生能源

have just embarked on a green hydrogen strategy

來製造氫。

to make hydrogen

讓我快速說一句，克里斯：

with zero marginal cost renewable energy.

你應該聽過風力 和太陽能的間歇現象——

And just a word on that, Chris:

沒有陽光普照時， 太陽能就無法發電，

you've heard about the intermittency of wind and solar --

沒有風吹時風力就無法發電——

solar doesn't produce electricity when the sun's not shining,

但電池變得越來越好，

and wind doesn't when the wind's not blowing --

而這些技術變得更有效率且強大，

but batteries are getting better,

所以每天有越來越多的時間，

and these technologies are becoming much more efficient and powerful,

它們所產生的電力 都遠超過需要使用的量。

so that for an increasing number of hours of each day,

所以，該怎麼辦？

they're producing often way more electricity than can be used.

下一個千瓦小時的邊際成本是零。

So what to do with it?

所以，突然間，

The marginal cost for the next kilowatt-hour is zero.

需要大量能源從水分解出氫的過程

So all of a sudden,

在經濟上竟然變成可行的，

the very energy-intensive process of cracking hydrogen from water

且可以取代掉煤和天然氣，

becomes economically feasible,

這是已經在施行的了。

and it can be substituted for coal and gas,

有一間瑞典公司 已經在用綠氫來製鋼，

and that's already being done.

我剛說過，德國為此 在著手進行一項新的大計畫。

There's a Swedish company already making steel with green hydrogen,

我想，他們是在 為世界其他國家指路。

and, as I say, Germany has just embarked on a major new initiative to do that.

至於建築物的翻修， 讓我稍微說一下，

I think they're pointing the way for the rest of the world.

因為在全世界和在美國，

Now, where building retrofits are concerned, just a moment on this,

全球暖化污染中 有大約 20%~25%

because about 20 to 25 percent of the global warming pollution

是來自效能不佳的建築物，

in the world and in the US

建造這些建築物的公司和人

comes from inefficient buildings

想的是市場上的競爭力，

that were constructed by companies and individuals

以及要讓他們的利潤 高到能接受的程度，

who were trying to be competitive in the marketplace

因此不會花心思在絕緣、

and keep their margins acceptably high

正確的窗戶、LED 燈等等。

and thereby skimping on insulation and the right windows

但購買或租用

and LEDs and the rest.

這些建築物的公司或人，

And yet the person or company that buys that building

他們希望每月的 水電瓦斯費能低很多。

or leases that building,

現在有方法

they want their monthly utility bills much lower.

可以減少這種所謂的 代理委託落差，

So there are now ways

給建造者和居住者不同的獎勵，

to close that so-called agent-principal divide,

翻新建築物的部分， 我們可以用三到五年後

the differing incentives for the builder and occupier,

就可以省下足以支付 費用的方案來進行，

and we can retrofit buildings with a program that literally pays for itself

且我們可以讓數千萬人有工作可做，

over three to five years,

這些工作在定義上就無法外包，

and we could put tens of millions of people to work