Name: 起來辯論分析與眼球測試的關係 (Get Up debates analytics vs. the eye test)
Uploaded: 2020-10-31T20:30:27.000Z
Duration: 4 min 13 s

情態副詞

once he gets to that point in his season when he throws that many pitches, opponents basically hit like there, Lou Gehrig against him in every considerable moment.

一旦他到了賽季中的那個點，當他投出那麼多球的時候，對手基本上就會打得像有，盧-格里格對他的每一個相當時刻。

And what all of that adds up to is a moment in which analytics took center stage during the biggest game of the baseball season.

而這一切加起來，就是在棒球賽季最重要的比賽中，分析學佔據中心位置的時刻。

程度副詞

And the analytics revolution, if you will, has been something that has caused so much interesting conversation and consternation.

而分析革命，如果你願意的話，一直是引起了很多有趣的話題和驚愕的東西。

Dominique Foxworth's Let Me start with you.

多米尼克-福克斯沃斯的《讓我從你開始》。

A lot of people have criticized candidly.

Almost everyone criticized the manager for basing a decision there on analytics versus what his eyes were seeing in the moment.

幾乎所有的人都責備主教練在那裡根據分析結果與當下眼睛所看到的情況來做決定。

Like, to me, it just feels like like confirmation bias from, like, meathead anti intellectuals like the decision was made based on the stats that were presented to him.

就像，對我來說，它只是感覺就像確認偏見，就像，肉頭反知識分子一樣，就像決定是基於提交給他的統計數據。

And that's the decision that they've been making all season.

而這也是他們整個賽季都在做的決定。

Like you don't get ah, bottom five payroll to the world.

就像你沒有得到啊，世界上最底層的五個工資。

Siri's, without relying on some analytics like feel, isn't going to get you there.

Siri的，如果不依靠感覺等一些分析方法，是不會讓你達到目的的。

And I understand why people think that you should change your habits or change your decisions in those situations.

而我也理解為什麼人們認為在這種情況下你應該改變自己的習慣或者改變自己的決定。

But analytics is a lot based on probability.

If you have a decision to make in one side, there's a tight rope you can use across it and other side.

如果你有一個決定在一邊，有一個緊密的繩子，你可以用它和其他方面的對面。

Okay, the rickety bridge might break, but it's slightly safer than the tightrope.

好吧，搖搖晃晃的橋可能會斷，但比走鋼絲稍微安全一些。

That's what analytics is about, not about having some feeling, and everyone jumping on this as a reason to say The analytics are bad.

這就是分析的意義，而不是有一些感覺，大家都跳出這個理由說分析不好。

It's just confirmation bias, because you could also look at this and say, This team that should not be in the World Series is in the World Series because they relied on getting every edge they can because they're relying on numbers, not on some sort of feel.

這只是確認偏差，因為你也可以看這個，然後說，這支不該進世界大賽的球隊之所以能進世界大賽，是因為他們依靠的是獲得每一個優勢，因為他們依靠的是數據，而不是某種感覺。

So you're very much alone for amongst most of the people I've talked to on that perspective, Luis Riddick.

所以在我所接觸的大多數人中，只有你一個人有這樣的看法，路易斯-瑞迪克。

This is not just a baseball conversation.

Look, I think the sweet spot is when you have the marriage between the objective and the subjective, and you allow them toe work together.

聽著，我覺得最理想的地方就是當你有了客觀和主觀之間的結合，你允許他們一起工作。

Meeting this I am not someone who's gonna bang on analytics because I believe that it plays an important role in all supports and in the sport that I cover in particular in football, it's playing a bigger and bigger role, especially when you're talking about to two point conversion probabilities, fourth down conversion probabilities, and I understand it and you see it playing itself out.

滿足這一點，我不是一個會在分析學上抨擊的人，因為我相信它在所有的支持中都扮演著重要的角色，而在我所覆蓋的運動中，尤其是在足球中，它扮演著越來越大的角色，尤其是當你在談論到兩點轉換概率，第四次進攻轉換概率時，我理解它，你看到它自己的發揮。

It's just that the issue here is this, though.

只是，這裡的問題是這樣的，不過。

Once you start getting into certain situations, the subjective, decision making process has to be also considered.

一旦你開始進入某些情況，也要考慮主觀、決策的過程。

I mean, if you're one of those football teams is deep in your own territory, you know that 4000 conversion probabilities have continued to trend up over the past couple of years, and you're facing 1/4 and one on your own 25 own 30 year olds 30 yard line and you're in a tight ballgame in.

我的意思是，如果你是那些足球隊是深陷在自己的領土，你知道4000轉換概率在過去幾年中持續上升的趨勢，你面對1/4和1在自己的25自己的30歲的30碼線，你在一個緊張的球賽中。

It's probably not smart to go for it on fourth down at that time, especially if you're playing good defense.

在那個時候，在第四次進攻時去做可能並不明智，尤其是在你防守很好的情況下。

Punt the ball way, play the field position battle, and that's like one of those kind of situations.

撲球的方式，打場上的陣地戰，這就像是其中的一種情況。

Although It's just a small situation of where your subjective feel for how the game is going is going to trump what the analysts would tell you to do, necessarily in that in that kind of situation.

雖然這只是一個小情況，你對比賽走勢的主觀感覺要勝過分析師會告訴你怎麼做，必然在這種情況下。

There's no question, though, that relying on some historical data to help you make decision making help me make decisions is something that's here to stay.

但毫無疑問，依靠一些歷史數據來幫助你做決策幫助我做決策，是一件很有意義的事情。

And maybe in this case, he needed to pay attention to what was going on in the football on on the baseball diamond with his picture and said, Hey, look, maybe he starts to get hit at this point in time in the past, But right now he's feeling it and our team is feeling it.

也許在這種情況下，他需要注意足球中發生的事情在棒球場上與他的照片，並說，嘿，你看，也許他開始在過去的這個時間點上被擊中，但現在他的感覺，我們的團隊正在感受它。

Maybe I should leave him in there a little bit longer.

也許我應該讓他在裡面多呆一會兒。

Sometimes I like to say it could be a little more of an art than a science.

有時候我喜歡說，這可能是一門藝術，而不是科學。

Sometimes D would 30 seconds your thoughts, analytics.

有時候D會30秒你的想法，分析。

No, listen, I think analytical, you know, definitely has his role, particularly in the sport of baseball.

不，聽著，我認為分析性的，你知道，絕對有他的作用，特別是在棒球運動中。

But again, you know when you're talking about not just baseball but sports in general, a lot of times that the ebb and flows of the game they change and to to consistently to rely just on the numbers.

但是，你知道，當你談論的不僅僅是棒球，而是一般的運動，很多時候，比賽的起伏和流動都會改變，而且要始終如一地依靠數字。

In this particular situation, I think it was a huge did a huge injustice, Um, to the to the time of race.

在這種特殊的情況下，我認為這是一個巨大的 做了一個巨大的不公平，嗯，到時間的種族。

In this particular situation, Thank you for watching ESPN on YouTube for live streaming sports and premium content.

在這種特殊情況下，感謝您在YouTube上觀看ESPN的體育直播和優質內容。