Name: 民調專家艾米-沃爾特。現任總統的工作支持率是選舉預測的關鍵因素。 (Polling Expert Amy Walter: An Incumbent President's Job Approval Rating Is A Key Election Predictor)
Uploaded: 2020-10-30T20:30:25.000Z
Duration: 9 min 28 s

Next Tuesday, we will be live over on Showtime.

下週二，我們將在Showtime直播。

We're taking the whole caravan over to pay cable for some full frontal nudity for a show we're calling Stephen Colbert's Election Night 2020 Democracies Last Stand Building Back America Great Again Better 2020 folks.

我們要帶著整個大篷車去付費有線電視上看一些全裸的節目，我們稱之為斯蒂芬-科爾伯特的《2020年選舉之夜》民主國家的最後一站，讓美國再次偉大起來，更好的2020年，各位。

Um, as I was saying over there back in the monologue, the president's message of a co vid in every pot is not pulling great, and things are looking pretty good for Vice President Joe Biden.

就像我在獨白中說的那樣 總統的 "每一個罐子裡都有一個視頻 "的消息並不樂觀 副總統喬・拜登的情況也很好。

Currently, FiveThirtyEight selection projection says the chances of Biden winning the election are 89% and Onley 11% for Donald Trump.

目前，FiveThirtyEight選情預測稱，拜登勝出的機率為89%，唐納德-特朗普勝出的機率為Onley 11%。

而《經濟學人》對拜登的評價是96%。

只是這一切都讓人覺得很熟悉。

Multiple outlets do predicted Clinton win.

多家媒體確實預測克林頓獲勝。

We have The New York Times putting that chance that 80% Donald Trump is not going to be president of the United States.

我們《紐約時報》把這個可能性，80%的唐納德-特朗普是不會成為美國總統的。

I continue to believe Mr Trump will not be president.

我繼續相信特朗普先生不會成為總統。

Who what happened is the election over yet?

You promise yourself after the last election that you would not Pokemon go down that road again.

你在上次選舉後保證自己不會再走那條路，寵物小精靈。

And I'm not alone with the pre election yips all over the country, Democrats are refusing to allow themselves any smidgeon off optimism, saying they trust no one.

而且我不是一個人，全國各地都在進行選舉前的yips，民主黨人拒絕讓自己有任何一絲的樂觀，說他們不相信任何人。

The paranoia is so bad, I can't even pick a mouthwash.

妄想症太嚴重了，我連漱口水都挑不出來。

I don't care what four out of five dentists recommend.

我不在乎五個牙醫中的四個推薦什麼。

Know that I don't Experts say that we need hope for the future to help ward off this anxiety.

知道我不 專家說，我們需要對未來的希望來幫助抵禦這種焦慮。

However, some Americans say they're too afraid to hope this is likely a protective mechanism in response to the 2016 election.

不過，一些美國人表示，他們不敢奢望這可能是應對2016年大選的保護機制。

It feels like we're all Charlie Brown going to kick the football.

這感覺就像我們都是查理-布朗去踢足球一樣。

But we know what the last second Lucy's gonna give us coronavirus.

但我們知道最後一秒露西會給我們冠狀病毒。

Are we trapped in unknowable universe of chaos here, Toe?

我們是不是被困在了不可知的混沌宇宙中，託伊？

要麼讓我冷靜下來，要麼激起我的焦慮。

Please welcome the national editor of the Cook Political Report and polling expert Amy Walter.

請歡迎《庫克政治報告》全國編輯、民調專家艾米-沃爾特。

Remind all of us what went wrong in retrospect.

回頭提醒大家，到底是哪裡出了問題。

What went wrong with those polling probability predictions, Whatever you wanna call them and how that's all fixed now, right?

那些民調概率預測出了什麼問題，隨便你怎麼說，現在怎麼都解決了，對吧？

So I don't know that I can tell you that everything's fixed and better because pulling in and of itself isn't perfect, right?

所以我不知道我能不能告訴你一切都固定好了，更好了，因為拉進本身就不完美，對吧？

We all know that there's error, but I think famous margin of error, famous margin of error that is true and is going all the way back to the seventies.

我們都知道有誤差，但我認為著名的誤差範圍，著名的誤差範圍是真實的，而且是一直追溯到七十年代。

You know, the FiveThirtyEight folks went back and they looked at this election and compared it to previous elections.

你知道，"五三八 "組織的人回過頭來看了看這次選舉，並把它和以前的選舉做了比較。

And the average error at the national and state polls was pretty much in line with errors we've seen in previous elections.

而全國和各州民調的平均誤差與我們在以往選舉中看到的誤差幾乎一致。

Stephen was those, you know, prediction models that gave these numbers, like 88 or 72 or 67 or whatever the different.

斯蒂芬是那些，你知道的，預測模型給出了這些數字，比如88或72或67或什麼不同。

Right now at 5 30 eight's Got it 89 you know, 89 out of 100 for Biden 11 The Economist, 94% or 96 or something like that.

現在5點30分，有89分... ...你知道的，拜登有89分... ...《經濟學家》11期，94%或96分，或者類似的東西。

I don't think the problem is they're they're probabilities.

我覺得問題不在於它們是... ...它們是概率。

I think the problem is the way that we as people try Thio work with probabilities were not always that good about it.

我認為問題是我們作為人們嘗試Thio工作的方式與概率並不總是那麼好。

這就是為什麼賭博的效果非常好。

Um, because we tend to focus on that big number, right?

嗯，因為我們傾向於關注那個大數字，對吧？

There's an 80% chance that that I can win all of this.

有80%的機會，我可以贏得這一切。

But there's also a 20% chance that that you're gonna lose.

And so I think we spent most of 2016 focused on the 80% or whatever number that was that said Hillary Clinton was gonna win.

所以我認為我們在2016年的大部分時間都集中在80%或任何說希拉裡克林頓會贏的數字上。

And now we're spending all the time on the 20% chance that Trump's gonna win.

而現在我們把所有的時間都花在了特朗普20%的勝算上。

我們必須在那裡找到一些平衡。

其實我們是否應該不這樣做呢？

Look, I mean, why shouldn't we look at that?

你看，我的意思是，為什麼我們不應該看看這個？

Because by looking at the bigger number, we all got burned.

因為看大數，我們都被燒死了。

那些害羞的特朗普選民怎麼辦？

The silent trump voters that we hear so much about that they're out there, but pollsters can't find them, but they just come out of the woods and vote at the last minute.

我們經常聽到的沉默的特朗普選民，他們在那裡，但民調機構找不到他們，但他們只是在最後一刻才出來投票。

So do I believe that polls have a hard time capturing all the people that are going to go out and vote all kinds of people, especially people who don't traditionally come out and vote.

所以，我相信民調很難捕捉到所有要出去投票的各種人，特別是那些傳統上不出來投票的人。

是的，有害羞的特朗普選民嗎？

Voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters that they're going to vote for Donald Trump?

選民不好意思告訴民調員，他們要投給唐納德-特朗普？

So they hang up the phone or lie and say they're going to vote for Joe Biden?

所以他們掛了電話或者撒謊說要投給喬-拜登？

If you've driven through this country and you see people with flags and banners and lawn signs and all that, they aren't shy about Donald Trump.

如果你開車經過這個國家，你會看到人們的旗幟和橫幅以及草坪標誌和所有這些，他們對唐納德-特朗普並不害羞。

They are very proud to tell you that they're voting for him.

他們很自豪地告訴你，他們要投給他。

It's that they may not end up in a poll because they don't tend to be the kinds of folks who are picking up the phone to talk to pollsters Ortio answer mail surveys or to answer in, you know, an Internet survey so they're harder to find.

他們可能不會參加民調，因為他們往往不是那種拿起電話和民調機構交談的人，或者回答郵件調查，或者回答，你知道，網絡調查，所以他們更難找到。

But so are other low propensity voters, like younger voters or younger voters of color.

但其他低傾向選民也是如此，比如年輕選民或年輕的有色人種選民。

So when we have a turnout as we're expected to have, that's going to go through the roof, all kinds of people are going to show up this year, that may not have voted, um, in the last election.

所以，當我們有一個投票率，因為我們預計有， 這將去通過屋頂， 各種各樣的人都會出現在今年， 可能沒有投票，嗯，在最後的選舉。

What polls or what data out there do you trust most to indicate to indicate what may happen on Tuesday and beyond?

你最信任的民調或外面的什麼數據可以表明週二及以後可能發生的事情？

Yeah, so I think it's keeping a range of things is really important.

是的，所以我認為保持一系列的東西是非常重要的。

So never picking out just one poll look at averages don't cherry pick.

所以千萬不要只挑出一個民調看平均值不要挑剔。

But the other is I look at the president's job approval rating.

但另一個是我看總統的工作支持率。

This is what's so different from 2016 right?

And, uh, we know that approval ratings the way that people feel about the job, the president's doing have been pretty predictive in the past for how many votes that candidate that president is going to get in re election or what the margin is going to be in the reelection.

我們知道，支持率... ...人們對工作的感覺，總統的工作... ...在過去已經很有預見性，候選人... ...總統將在重新選舉中獲得多少票，或者在重新選舉中的幅度是多少。

So if you go back and you look at where previous presidents were going into their first term reelection, their final job approval rating was really close to the final vote share that they got.

所以，如果你回過頭來，你看看以前的總統在進入第一任期連任的時候，他們最後的工作支持率和最後得到的選票比例真的很接近。

And this is where Donald Trump has a huge challenge ahead of him right now.

而這也是唐納德-特朗普現在面臨巨大挑戰的地方。

If you look at that, Fivethirtyeight average his job approval rating, on average, is somewhere around 43% and the percent of the vote he's getting right now in that FiveThirtyEight an average is around 43 44%.

如果你看一下，五三八平均他的工作支持率，平均在43%左右，而他現在在那個五三八一個平均的得票率是43 44%左右。

So those two things line up and it makes some sense, right that if you like the job that the president's doing, you're probably gonna vote for the president.

所以這兩件事是一致的，這是有一定道理的，對吧，如果你喜歡總統的工作，你可能會投給總統。

If you don't like the job the president's doing, you're probably gonna vote for the other person.

如果你不喜歡總統的工作，你可能會投給另一個人。

People called me today who should know better and said, Okay, you've got to know something.

今天有人給我打電話，應該知道的人說，好吧，你得知道點什麼。

I don't I don't know what's happening but you, Amy, you got dumped.

我不... ...我不知道發生了什麼... ...但你，艾米，你被甩了。