But I was really struck how different it was from the last time we talked about goalkeepers in 2018 and that was so much of a more positive report, you know, all of the indicators were going in the right way and co vid really has really just put the brakes on that.

但我真的很震驚，它與上次我們在2018年談論守門員時有多大的不同，那是如此多的更積極的報告，你知道，所有的指標都在以正確的方式進行，而co vid真的真的只是把剎車。

I think your report puts it really well.

我覺得你的報告說得很好。

It said in the blink of an eye, health crisis became an economic crisis.

說是眨眼間，健康危機變成了經濟危機。

Food crisis, housing crisis, Ah, political crisis.

糧食危機，住房危機，啊，政治危機。

Everything collided with everything else.

一切都與其他的一切相撞。

So what about all of these results?

那麼這些結果呢？

Do you think is the most important one that we you know?

你認為是最重要的一個，我們你知道嗎？

Where would you love to start to talk about this?

你想從哪裡開始談起呢？

Well, as you say in most years, the reduction in malnutrition, the reduction in childhood death three increase in literacy rates there's this gradual progress that human life is getting better.

就像你說的，在大多數年份裡，營養不良的減少，兒童死亡率的降低，三是識字率的提高，人類的生活在逐步改善。

People are living longer and it's amazing that this is so widespread in its negative effects.

人們的壽命越來越長，而這其中的負面效應竟然如此普遍。

And the actual direct effects of killing people in poor countries is a very small part of the overall damage that's been done big part is that their health systems that are very fragile have been disrupted, so vaccinations aren't taking place.

貧窮國家的人被殺的實際直接影響 只是整個損害的一小部分 大的部分是他們的衛生系統非常脆弱 被破壞了，所以疫苗接種沒有進行。

Malaria bed nets are not getting out.

瘧疾蚊帳沒有傳出去。

HIV medicines are not getting out.

艾滋病藥物沒有傳出去。

And so Africa, we'll have dramatically more deaths from these indirect effects, then from the direct effects.

是以，非洲，我們將有戲劇性的更多的死亡 這些間接影響，然後從直接影響。

So the imperative is, let's bring the epidemic to an end.

所以，當務之急是，讓我們結束這種流行病。

And that, um, takes us to a discussion about vaccines, which is the only tool to do that, and then make sure that we do restore the services, even some ketchup for the kids to miss those vaccinations.

而這，嗯，需要我們去討論疫苗，這是唯一的工具，然後確保我們做恢復服務，甚至一些番茄醬的孩子錯過這些疫苗接種。

And even if we do our best on all those things the vaccine, the restoration, the rich country generosity, it'll take 2 to 3 years just to get back to the beginning of 2020.

而即使我們在這些事情上都做得很好，疫苗、恢復、富國大方，光是回到2020年年初，就需要2到3年的時間。

Well, and it has happened also quickly.

嗯，而且發生得也很快。

One of the things that the report talks about that I found really startling, um, was when it came to vaccine distribution and how key this is going to be, uh, in terms of survivability, uh, this model from Northeastern University.

報告中談到的一件事，我發現真正令人震驚的是，嗯，當它涉及到疫苗分配，以及如何關鍵這將是，呃，在生存能力方面，呃，東北大學的這個模型。

I was really shocked.

我真的被嚇到了。

That said that 33% of the deaths will be averted if vaccines are distributed the high income countries first, but 61% could be averted if the vaccines are distributed toe all countries proportionally to their population.

也就是說，如果首先在高收入國家發放疫苗，可以避免33%的死亡，但如果按人口比例向所有國家發放疫苗，可以避免61%的死亡。

Can you talk about why that is?

你能談談為什麼會這樣嗎？

Well, they, um there's deaths, uh, all over.

嗯，他們，嗯... ...有死亡，呃，各地。

And now no one is saying that the distribution album will be totally based on, uh, equity.

而現在沒有人說發行專輯會完全基於，呃，股權。

Uh, you know, there'll be some tilt towards the countries that helped fund fund the R and D.

呃，你知道，會有一些傾斜的國家，幫助基金資助R和D。

Uh, but we need to have some bathrooms here.

呃，但我們需要有一些浴室在這裡。

Both the generosity to buy the vaccines for those countries, uh, to increase the manufacturing capacity because this is mawr units of the vaccine in the world has ever needed.

慷慨地為這些國家購買疫苗 增加生產能力 因為這是世界上最需要的疫苗數量

And then to help fund that availability without, uh, the rich countries taking all of the capacity.

然後幫助為這種可用性提供資金，而不使富國佔有所有的能力。

Do you think so?

你認為是嗎？

That if if countries say the United States or other wealthy countries don't, you know, take this equitable approach that we will be morally culpable form or deaths?

如果國家說，美國或其他富裕國家不，你知道，採取這種公平的方式，我們將在道德上的形式或死亡的罪責？

Well, the foundation's motto is, all lives have equal value, and, uh, the foreign aid that rich countries give has saved tens of millions of lives.

嗯，基金會的座右銘是，所有的生命都有同等的價值，而且，呃，富國給予的對外援助已經拯救了數千萬人的生命。

Things like Global fund for HIV and Gabi, which helps buys vaccines for things like diarrhea, pneumonia on DSO there is some equity in the world.

像全球艾滋病基金和Gabi，幫助購買疫苗的事情，如腹瀉，肺炎DSO有一些在世界上的公平。

But the very fact that you know, our foundation is saving a life for every $1000 we spend.

但事實上，你知道，我們的基金會每花1000美元就能拯救一條生命。

It does show that we do treat lives outside the U.

這確實說明，我們確實在對待美國以外的生命。

S.

S.

As not being as valuable.

作為不一樣的價值。

Aziz those lives and you know, it's it's pretty extreme.

阿齊茲那些生命，你知道，這是... ...這是相當極端的。

This would be a double mistake because not only would you be sacrificing those lives as long as you let the disease exist outside the United States are, uh, anywhere in the world it's going to come back.

這將是一個雙重的錯誤，因為你不僅會犧牲那些生命，只要你讓這種疾病存在美國以外的地方，呃，世界上任何地方，它會回來。

And so you can't resume your normal activity.

所以你無法恢復正常的活動。

And so, of all the health crises, this is one where the world really is in it together, Uh, even countries that did a good job on the epidemic like South Korea, Australia and found it difficult for there not to be re infections.

所以，所有的健康危機， 這是一個世界真正在它一起， 呃，甚至國家做了一個很好的工作 在流行病，如韓國，澳洲，發現它很難 有不被重新感染。

And so they're having thio continue preventative measures where they have very few cases with big disruption and economic costs.

所以他們不得不繼續採取預防措施，在那裡他們有很少的案例，有很大的干擾和經濟成本。

And so here we've got to solve it.

所以在這裡我們要解決這個問題。

For all of humanity and eso, it's both just and even from a selfish point of view, it's the smart thing to do Well, I mean, the report does make that point repeatedly that you can't solve a global problem with a national solution.

對全人類來說，這是很公正的，甚至從自私的角度來看，這是明智之舉。 我的意思是，報告確實反覆強調了這一點，你不能用國家解決方案來解決全球問題。

But it sounds to me like you're also worried that this might not really this This might not really happen, that there won't be that global solution, because, I mean, that report comes back to this point over and over again.

但在我聽來，你也在擔心，這可能不會真的發生，不會有全球性的解決方案，因為，我的意思是，該報告回到了這一點，一遍又一遍。

Well, so far, the US although it is exemplary and funding the R and D for the six vaccines of the most likely Thio get, uh, really strong regulatory approval by early next year, the US has been absent in the discussion about creating the capacity and the aid money toe by those vaccines.

好了，到目前為止，美國雖然它是模範和資金的研發的六種疫苗的最有可能的Thio得到，呃，真的很強的監管準許由明年年初，美國一直缺席討論關於創建能力和援助資金由這些疫苗。

Now, I'm hopeful, You know, the Congress historically has been great on global health.

現在，我希望，你知道，國會歷來對全球健康問題都很重視。

Uh, you know, very generous on things like HIV, malaria on dso.

呃，你知道，非常慷慨的事情 像艾滋病毒，瘧疾對dso。

The fact it's been overlooked.

事實上，它已經被忽略了。

I hope that gets remedied and very quickly, because every month that this epidemic stays out there literally cost trillions of dollars.

我希望這種情況能儘快得到糾正，因為這種流行病在外面停留的每個月都要花費數萬億美元。

And yet the billions needed for the vaccine are what the Onley thing that will bring it to an end.

然而疫苗所需的幾十億是什麼安利事情，將使其結束。

You know, one of the one of those figures in there that really struck me was the increase in poverty.

你知道，其中有一個數字讓我印象深刻，那就是貧困人口的增加。

I mean, here there had been this horrific streak of less and less poverty, I think has gone on for about 20 years.

我的意思是，這裡一直有這個可怕的連勝 越來越少的貧困，我認為已經持續了約20年。

And now all of a sudden, you know, tens of millions of more people are pushed into poverty because of what's happened here.

而現在突然間，你知道，數以千萬計的更多的人被推入貧困，因為這裡發生了什麼。

And the report talked a little bit about, you know, women really taking the brunt of some of that.

報告中談到了一點，你知道，婦女真的是首當其衝的一些。

Could you talk about that?

你能談談嗎？

Yeah, there's no doubt import countries, uh, things were tough for everyone, but women bear the brunt of that.

是啊，毫無疑問，進口國，呃，大家的日子都不好過，但女性首當其衝。

And so if you get this reversal in the property, uh, it's it's not equitable at all.

所以，如果你得到這個逆轉的財產， 呃，這是不公平的，在所有。

Uh, the extra work, having the kids at home, uh, you know, finding enough food.

呃，額外的工作，有孩子在家裡， 呃，你知道，找到足夠的食物。

Uh, you know, extreme poverty is waking up and worrying where you have enough to eat every day and you know, the gold by 2030.

呃，你知道的，極端貧困就是醒來後，擔心自己每天哪裡夠吃，你知道的，2030年之前的黃金。

The sustainable development goal is to bring an end to extreme poverty.

可持續發展目標是結束極端貧困。

On the track record.

在記錄上。

There, particularly in Asia, has been quite good.

在那裡，特別是在亞洲，已經相當不錯。

It's been going down a lot.

它已經下降了很多。

The place where, uh, it's been toughest is in Africa.

最艱難的地方是在非洲。

We have very high population growth.

我們的人口增長非常快。

You have the difficulty of climate change making the farming less predictable.

你有氣候變化的困難，使耕作的可預測性降低。

So you have years where you don't get enough.

所以你有幾年沒吃飽。

And, you know, we'd hoped that with generous aid with better seeds, uh, that Africa to would start, uh, kind of miracles that we've seen in Asia.

而且，你知道，我們希望 慷慨的援助 與更好的種子， 呃，非洲將開始， 呃，那種奇蹟 我們已經看到在亞洲。

But this, at best, is a three or four year setback to that quest to have almost no one live in extreme poverty.

但是，這充其量也就是三四年的時間，對於實現幾乎沒有人生活在極端貧困中的目標來說，是一個挫折。

You know, there's so little good news in this report, and understandably so.

你知道，這份報告中的好消息很少，這也是可以理解的。

But do you see any innovations that might come out of having to deal with with this disease?

但是，你看到了什麼創新，可能會出現不得不處理這種疾病？

Or do you see any you know anything?

還是你看到了什麼你知道的？

That what are the hopeful lifelines that you could throw out there?

那你能拋出什麼有希望的生命線呢？

Well, there's no doubt that having ignored the warnings about, uh, the pandemic this time, the rich countries, including the U.

毫無疑問，這次忽視了關於大流行病的警告，包括美國在內的富國。

S, will take the threat seriously, and they'll do the kind of simulations toe prepare they'll have in a large scale diagnostic capability immediately available, which the US in particular was the worst on that will, you know, mature some of these vaccine platforms that are not only worthwhile for pandemics but will be used to make vaccines for malaria, TB and HIV.

S，會認真對待這種威脅，他們會做那種模擬準備，他們會有大規模的診斷能力，立即可用，尤其是美國是最差的，你知道，成熟的一些疫苗平臺，不僅對流行病有價值，而且將用於製造瘧疾、結核病和艾滋病毒的疫苗。

And so, just like in war time, uh, you know, we moved quickly and trying new things, you know, even in terms of our lifestyle.

所以，就像在戰爭時期， 呃，你知道，我們迅速移動 並嘗試新的東西， 你知道，甚至在我們的生活方式。

Can you use telemedicine?

可以使用遠程醫療嗎？

Can you use online education?

你能用在線教育嗎？

Can you avoid some of the business travel We do.

你能避免一些商務旅行嗎 我們可以。

You know, we are Eyes have been opened up and, you know, so the, uh you know, that software is getting a lot better.

你知道，我們是眼睛已經打開了，你知道，所以，呃，你知道，該軟件是越來越好。

Uh, and you know, So it's a really acceleration there, Uh, it doesn't offset all the negative things that come out of the pandemic, but, yes, three ingenuity in the pharmaceutical companies.

呃，你知道，所以它是一個真正的加速有， 呃，它不抵消所有的負面的東西 出來的流行病，但是，是的，三個獨創性 在製藥公司。

That's why we have six vaccine candidates, several of which are extremely likely to prove safe and efficacious by early next year.

這就是為什麼我們有六種候選疫苗，其中有幾種極有可能在明年年初被證明是安全和有效的。

So if this pandemic could come 10 years ago, you know our Internet bandwidth one the let us do our office jobs.

所以，如果這個流行病能在10年前到來，你知道我們的互聯網帶寬一個讓我們做我們的辦公室工作。

The vaccine platforms would be as far along.

疫苗平臺會如斯。

So, you know, it's it's phenomenal.

所以，你知道，這是... ...這是驚人的。

We could say that within a few years, with a little bit of luck on the vaccines and some generosity, real effort to get the word out that it's safe.

我們可以說，在幾年之內，只要在疫苗上運氣好一點，再加上一些慷慨的，真正的努力，讓大家知道它是安全的。

Uh, this pandemic will come to a close, you know, So a lot more negative would be saying, Oh, my God.

呃，這種流行病會來結束， 你知道，所以很多更消極的會說， 哦，我的上帝。

This, uh, is going to continue indefinitely that unfortunately, because of science, the pharma companies jumping in That's not the case.

這，呃，將繼續無限期地 不幸的是，由於科學，製藥公司 跳在這一點。 這不是這樣的。

And so do you think as a last just thought has the US learned its lesson, if you will, about taking pandemic seriously and being prepared and, you know, getting ready.

所以，你認為作為最後的想法... ...美國是否吸取了教訓，如果你願意，關於認真對待大流行病，並做好準備，你知道，做好準備。

That's I mean, the problem is you get ready, and then nothing happens.

我的意思是，問題是你準備好了，然後什麼都沒有發生。

Nothing happens.

什麼都沒有發生。

Nothing happens, and then you get unprepared.

什麼都沒有發生，然後你就會毫無準備。

So but do you think that this will have made that impression a lasting woman?

所以，但你認為這將會使這個印象持久的女人？

Well, we'll go into a post mortem.

好吧，我們將進入屍檢。

Uh, the CDC made some mistakes at the start, and then you have things moved upto a political level without expertise where the willingness to admit mistakes with zero, you know?

疾控中心一開始就犯了一些錯誤 然後你把事情上升到一個沒有專業知識的政治層面 願意承認錯誤的可能性為零 你知道嗎?

So the fact that we still have test results that take more than 24 hours, that is just a desire to say, Oh, I solved the testing thing.

所以我們的檢測結果還需要24小時以上，那就是想說，哦，我解決了檢測的事情。

You shouldn't reimburse for those, uh, delayed test results.

你不應該為那些，呃，延遲的測試結果報帳。

So we still, you know, our, uh, performing way below what we should, you know.

所以，我們仍然，你知道，我們的，呃，表現方式低於我們應該，你知道的。

So I do think there'll be a lesson toe.

所以，我確實認為會有一個教訓的腳趾。

Let the professionals, uh, do their work.

讓專業的人去做他們的工作。

There'll be lots of research and development about how you can ramp up, uh, testing drugs and vaccines very quickly.

會有很多的研究和開發，關於如何能夠快速地加大，呃，測試藥物和疫苗。

So, yes, I think unlike, you know, the title of my 2015 talk, which was we're not ready for the next pandemic.

所以，是的，我認為不像，你知道，我2015年演講的標題是我們還沒有準備好迎接下一次大流行。

I think three years from now we will be ready for the next pandemic.

我想三年後，我們將為下一次大流行做好準備。

Well, I hope there isn't the next one, but I appreciate the optimism around that.

好吧，我希望沒有下一個，但我很欣賞周圍的樂觀情緒。

We'll still thank you so much for talking with us at National Geographic about your latest goalkeepers report.

我們還是非常感謝你和我們《國家地理》雜誌談論你的最新門將報告。

Thank you.

謝謝你了