Ah, murderous second wave is underway on dso time for a stringent national lock down J.

啊，殺人的第二波正在進行上dso時間嚴格的全國鎖定J。

D.

D.

C D.

C D．

Carefully, he has to pay reviews clear echoes of France's first wave as travel restrictions return.

細心的是，他不得不支付評論清楚的迴響，法國的第一波旅行限制迴歸。

But there are differences.

但也有區別。

This one will initially last for five weeks on schools on essential workplaces will remain open.

這個最初將持續五週，學校的重要工作場所將繼續開放。

Some of the toughest measures in Europe as Germany for long a model in handling the virus also announced a dramatic tightening off restrictions.

一些最嚴厲的措施在歐洲作為德國長期處理病毒的模式也宣佈大幅收緊關閉限制。

Eyes follow conclave.

眼睛跟著協和。

The new measures by such close neighbors will intensify pressure on Boris Johnson to toughen restrictions on this side of the channel.

這種近鄰的新措施將加大對鮑里斯-約翰遜的壓力，以加強對海峽這邊的限制。

The UK is, after all, projected to be a few weeks behind.

畢竟，英國預計會落後幾周。

France on the scientific advisory group for Emergencies is warning that the second wave could last longer than the first in the spring, The UK daily death rate quickly shot up to just over 1000 day before slowly coming down since September, death have bean on the up again On now, scientists fear they will rise to 500 a day by mid November.

法國緊急情況科學諮詢小組警告說，第二波可能會比春季的第一波持續的時間更長，英國的日死亡率迅速飆升到剛剛超過1000天，然後再慢慢下來，自9月以來，死亡人數已經豆上再次上升，現在，科學家們擔心他們將上升到500每天11月中旬。

The numbers could then plateau.

數字就可以趨於平穩。

We're already seeing a steady increase in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, but at a far slower rate than we saw in March, maybe doubling every 2 to 3 weeks.

我們已經看到感染、住院和死亡人數在穩步上升，但速度比3月份的時候慢得多，可能每2到3周就會翻一番。

But it is going carrying on in spite off the measures that have taken place.

但是，儘管已經採取了措施，但它仍在繼續。

So this is going to carry on increasing.

所以，這種情況會繼續增加。

It's quite plausible that they will carry on really throughout the winter.

很有可能他們真的會在整個冬天進行下去。

I think it's gonna look much more like a ah bad flu season, which is spread over the whole of the winter rather than being enormously packed in like the first wave of this epidemic.

我認為它會看起來更像一個啊嚴重的流感季節，這是分佈在整個冬季，而不是被巨大的包裝在像這個流行病的第一波。

A significant moment for Boris Johnson as his own scientists.

鮑里斯-約翰遜的一個重要時刻，作為自己的科學家。

One of the potency off the second wave on political pressure to after the used to mighty powers introduced nationwide measures.

之一的效力關第二波對政治的壓力，以後用於強國推出全國性的措施。

Downing Street is watching developments across the channel with care.

唐寧街正小心翼翼地關注著整個海峽的發展。

But for now, the prime minister believes that targeted regional restrictions are the best approach over here way need to look carefully what other nations are doing, but recognizing that this government is up against it once again.

但目前，總理認為，有針對性的區域限制是最好的方法，在這邊方式需要仔細觀察其他國家在做什麼，但認識到這個政府又要面對它。

But we need to learn lessons from that first time round, understand that there may be a circuit breaker or another lock down, but actually we're keeping more people alive at the moment there's medicines available.

但我們需要從第一次的教訓中吸取教訓，明白可能會有一個斷路器或另一個鎖定，但實際上我們正在保持更多的人活著，目前有藥物可用。

We're all more disciplined in what we're doing on what I'd like to see is not an exit strategy of such.

我們在做什麼事情上都比較嚴謹，我希望看到的不是這樣的退出策略。

That won't come until we have a vaccine.

除非我們有了疫苗，否則不會出現這種情況。

What we need is a plan.

我們需要的是一個計劃。

For six months.

6個月。

We're gonna have a tough winter.

我們會有一個艱難的冬天。

There's no doubt about it.

這是毫無疑問的。

We need a plan to take us to March.

我們需要一個計劃來帶我們到3月。

That must include keeping the economy alive, looking at clever ways off, allowing us to go about our business.

這必須包括保持經濟的活力，尋找巧妙的方法，讓我們去做我們的事情。

Labor believes the new restrictions on the continent highlight weaknesses in number tens.

工黨認為，大陸新的限制措施凸顯出數十個方面的弱點。

Co Vered response.

Co Vered的迴應。

I think again it shows that Boris Johnson is behind the coronavirus curved.

我認為這又說明鮑里斯-約翰遜是冠狀病毒彎曲的背後。

He should have used this half term for a short time, limited circuit break here in the United Kingdom in England to get on top of the virus, to save lives, to stop the NHS being overwhelmed.

他應該利用這半個學期的時間，在英國英國這裡有限的斷路，去對付病毒，去拯救生命，去阻止NHS不堪重負。

And the fear now is that because he's differing because he's delaying that he'll be forced into a longer, deeper, locked down later next month, for or in December again, it's because Boris Johnson, like in the spring, has been too slow to act on.

而現在擔心的是，因為他的不同，因為他的拖延，他將被迫進入一個更長的，更深的，鎖定下個月晚些時候，為或在12月再次，這是因為鮑里斯-約翰遜，就像春天一樣，行動太慢。

Eerie silence befell the City of Lights in the first lock Down on now.

詭異的寂靜籠罩著光之城，在第一次鎖定現在。

A return to those dark days Nick.

回到那些黑暗的日子，尼克。

What?

什麼？

Well, I'm joined now by Robert West, the professor of Health Psychology University, College, London, who is also member of the behavioral science subgroup of Sage S B I B and clear Wenham, assistant professor of global health policy at the London School of Economics.

好了，我現在加入了羅伯特-韋斯特，健康心理學大學教授，學院，倫敦，誰也是行為科學子集團的成員S S B I B和清晰的Wenham，助理教授全球衛生政策在倫敦經濟學院。

Good evening to you both.

你們倆晚上好。

First of all, Professor West in July, Boris Johnson said is my strong, sincere hope will be able to review outstanding restrictions and of a significant return to normality.

首先，韋斯特教授在7月表示，鮑里斯-約翰遜是我強烈的、真誠的希望能夠審查未完成的限制，並大幅恢復正常。

End of November, possibly in time for Christmas is not gonna happen, is it?

11月底，可能趕不上聖誕節了吧？

I'm afraid it isn't on, but unfortunately, this was foreseen.

恐怕沒有上，但不幸的是，這是預知的。

You know, when the restrictions were eased, you know, people were saying they were eased too soon on DTI too much at one time.

放寬限制的時候，你知道的，人們都說放寬得太快了，一度對工信部的限制太多。

Then, as things started to get worse, we needed to act much more quickly than we have done.

然後，當事情開始變得更糟時，我們需要比以往更快地採取行動。

So in the beginning, let's look at the first way.

所以在開始的時候，我們先看第一種方式。

We were told that we to protect the NHS, but actually became the Corvette NHS.

我們被告知，我們要保護NHS，但實際上成為科沃特NHS。

And as we now know, cancer operations were canceled.

而現在我們知道，癌症手術被取消了。

Cancer death rules we've heard tonight that Greater Manchester is again canceling cancer operations.

癌症死亡規則我們今晚聽說，大曼徹斯特再次取消癌症手術。

So is it time for more explicit message?

那麼，現在是不是應該有更明確的資訊呢？

If you do not adhere?

如果你不堅持？

Everyone knows some with cancer in the family.

大家都知道有些人家裡有癌症。

There will be more cancer deaths if you do not adhere.

如果你不堅持，會有更多的癌症死亡。

I mean, this is the thing.

我的意思是，這是事情。

What we're seeing from the evidence is that people are adhering toa what they're being told to do.

我們從證據中看到的是，人們都在遵守他們被告知的事情。

The problem isn't so much the adherence to the rules.

問題不在於對規則的遵守。

That problem is the rules onda fact that explicit nature.

這個問題是規則上達事實，明確性質。

Is it not time to more explicit in that message about cancer?

關於癌症的那條資訊是不是應該更加明確了？

Well, I think it's very important to understand that the NHS was not protected last time.

好吧，我覺得很重要的一點是，要明白上次NHS沒有得到保護。

It was absolutely catastrophic for the NHS on it will be again.

這絕對是災難性的NHS對它將再次。

There's no question about that.

這一點毋庸置疑。

Um, but you know, independent sage now, Sage has said, you know that it really isn't acceptable to have a continuing rise in infection rates because, you know, we will see more hospitalizations and deaths on Duthie.

嗯，但你知道，獨立聖人現在，聖人說，你知道，它真的是不可接受的感染率持續上升，因為，你知道，我們會看到更多的住院和死亡的Duthie。

NHS, of course, will suffer as a consequence.

當然，NHS也會是以受到影響。

Frankly, in the midst of deep winter might not be able to cope.

坦率地說，在深冬中可能無法應對。

I mean, it was seen as a triumph that we weren't using the Nightingale Hospitals.

我的意思是，這被認為是一個勝利，我們沒有使用南丁格爾醫院。

But actually, that's not Nestle a triumph for other kinds of illnesses as well.

但其實，這並不是雀巢對其他種類的疾病也是一種勝利。

No, I mean, you know, we will see.

不，我的意思是，你知道，我們會看到。

We've already seen that there were substantial excess deaths not directly caused by co vid, and there will be more to come clear when.

我們已經看到，有大量的超額死亡不是由co vid直接造成的，到時還會有更多的情況出現。

Why do you think people are often not adhering to the majors?

為什麼你認為人們常常不遵守專業？

Is it the fact that they're not scared or they're too scared of?

是他們不怕，還是他們太怕？

They've got competing scared.

他們已經得到了競爭的害怕。

Nous is, for example, you know, they're they're scared of covert.

比如說，你知道，他們... ...他們害怕祕密。

On the one hand, they're scared of a lot during the other.

一方面，他們在另一個期間害怕很多。

They're scared financially.

他們在經濟上很害怕。

I think it's a mix of all those things.

我想這是所有這些東西的混合體。

I think some people are fed up of being where we are fed up of off.

我想，有些人已經厭倦了我們厭倦的關。

Being in this kind of quasi state that we've seen in the last few months, I think others simply can't afford to go into to isolate.

在過去幾個月我們看到的這種準狀態下，我想其他人根本就沒有能力去隔離。

We've seen a lot of data coming out showing people who aren't they good bye bye, These isolation requests because they have to get to work.

我們已經看到了很多數據出來，顯示出人們誰不是他們再見，這些隔離請求，因為他們必須去工作。

And I think also we've got it.

我想我們也已經得到了它。

We had a government whose bean, you know, encouraging people to go out over the summer.

我們有一個政府，其豆，你知道， 鼓勵人們出去過夏天。

Let's not forget that the government we're encouraging people to go out and, you know, eat out and go back to work on trying to get people to socialize again on.

別忘了，政府我們鼓勵人們出去，你知道，在外面吃飯，然後回去工作，試圖讓人們再次社交上。

So there's really some mixed messages coming people are trying to have to grapple with at the moment.

所以，目前人們真的是有一些混雜的資訊來試圖不得不去處理。

But now and today we've got the stubbornly high number in the early 300 expected to rise.

但現在和今天，我們已經有了300初的頑固高數，預計還會上升。

It's about 500 in daily deaths.

每天的死亡人數大約在500人左右。

Now is the time, surely to have trust between the government and the public.

現在是時候了，肯定要政府和公眾之間的信任。

And why does the public not trust the government?

而公眾為什麼不相信政府呢？

What I mean, some some challenges in the risk communication across the course, this pandemic.

我的意思是，在整個過程中的風險溝通中的一些一些挑戰，這種大流行。

I think that, you know Johnson's message at the beginning of this would be out of this by Christmas was unrealistic, and I think he needed to prepare people better for actually, this is gonna be a long time tour out of this.

我認為，你知道約翰遜的消息在開始 這將是出這個聖誕節是不切實際的， 我認為他需要準備的人更好的實際上， 這是要去是一個漫長的時間之旅了。

And you know, nobody wants that aunt.

你知道，沒有人想要那個阿姨。

So it's not a political astute or savvy thing to say it's not good.

所以說，這不是一個政治精明或精明的事情，而是一個不好的事情。

It's not gonna win you, you know, a crowd.

它不會讓你贏得，你知道，一個人群。

But that's the reality, and I think we now need to get that messaging right to prepare people for what's going to be a long winter, potentially a long 2021 on Also prepare people for the fact that the vaccine isn't necessarily the silver bullet and, you know, assumes we get a vaccine.

但這就是現實，我認為我們現在需要得到正確的消息，讓人們準備好什麼將是一個漫長的冬天，可能是一個漫長的2021上也讓人們準備好疫苗不一定是銀彈的事實，你知道，假設我們得到疫苗。

It's going to take time to distribute it, to roll it out.

這需要時間來分配它，推出它。

So I think we need to really focus in on how the government is communicating, what the reality of the next few months.

所以我認為我們需要真正關注在政府如何溝通，未來幾個月的實際情況是什麼。

And here it might look like.

而這裡可能是這樣的。

What is the reality?

現實是什麼？

Robert west of the next few months?

未來幾個月羅伯特西？

Is the reality to follow France and Germany into a national lock down?

現實是要跟著法國和德國進入全國鎖國嗎？

Yes, I think that it would be remarkable if the government sort of held out.

是的，我認為，如果政府能堅持下去，那就了不起了。

Unfortunately, the longer leaves it, the longer the lock down will have to be and the more people will die ahead of that on.

可惜的是，離開的時間越長，鎖定的時間就得越長，死在前面的人就越多，上。

Do you know it's really painful?

你知道這真的很痛苦嗎？

But the other thing I found myself advising the government on this and you are the one that saying, Look, get into that lock down.

但另一件事，我發現我自己建議政府在這一點上，你是一個說，你看，進入鎖定。

No, Well, you know, scientists advised governments decide, but the other thing that's really important to say about this is that the test trace and isolate system has to be up to standard, and it isn't.

不，好吧，你知道，科學家建議政府決定，但另一件事，真的很重要，要說的是，測試跟蹤和隔離系統必須達到標準，但它不是。

And that's been the really catastrophic failure over the summer and since then is not getting that system in place because lockdowns don't work by themselves.

這就是夏天真正的災難性失敗，從那時起，就是沒有把這個系統建立起來，因為鎖閉本身是不會起作用的。

They just buy you time.

他們只是為你爭取時間。

It's interesting as a behavioral psychologist looking at, you know, we have now got this mixture of tears, you know, and proliferation of tears.

有趣的是，作為一個行為心理學家看著， 你知道，我們現在有這種混合的眼淚， 你知道，和眼淚的擴散。

Five.

五是

In Scotland, 34 Here is your sense that that just doesn't work all these different tiers.

在蘇格蘭，34這裡是你的感覺，這只是不工作所有這些不同的層級。

It's not going to work, and the problem is that if you have the infection rate rising across the country, which it is, then you might be in Tier one now.

這是行不通的，問題是如果你的感染率在全國範圍內不斷上升，而事實就是如此，那麼你現在可能已經在一級醫院了。

But you're going to be in Tier two later, and it's much better if you have the whole country, Um, in one boat, a zit were controlling the infection in the same way.

但你以後要在二線，如果你把整個國家，嗯，在一條船上，一個痘痘都用同樣的方式控制感染，那就更好了。

So I want to ask this to both of you.

所以我想問你們兩個。

How do you create a new social contract between the government and people?

如何在政府和人民之間建立新的社會契約？

How do you create a new message about this?

如何創建一個新的資訊，對此？

I think that the government has to accept that it's got it wrong.

我認為，政府必須接受它的錯誤。

Other governments have said that.

其他政府也說過。

You know, you've got to be willing to accept that you've got things wrong.

你要知道，你必須願意接受你有錯誤的事情。

You've got to be honest with people.

你要對人誠實。

You've got to be transparent, and you've got to have a very clear messaging about what needs to be done on why it needs to be done.

你必須是透明的，你必須有一個非常清晰的資訊傳遞，關於為什麼需要做什麼。

But we understand clear when them, uh, water politically Tau understands that the government is not minded to go into national lockdowns.

但我們明白清楚，當他們，呃，水政治上陶明白，政府是不介意進入全國封鎖的。

Is that no mistake?

是不是沒有搞錯？

I think it's difficult.

我認為這很難。

I mean, nobody wants to lock down.

我的意思是，沒有人願意鎖定。

I don't think anyone in the UK wants to go into lock down again because, you know, in general, but I think the reality is there's little choice and I I agree that we know we need to level with people and tell them that you know, the tear was an opportunity to demonstrate that we could get this under control on the fact that people haven't been following it.

我不認為英國任何人都想再次進入鎖定，因為，你知道，在一般情況下，但我認為現實是沒有什麼選擇，我同意我們知道我們需要與人們平起平坐，並告訴他們，你知道，撕裂是一個機會，以證明我們可以得到這個控制在事實，人們沒有遵循它。

The fact that people are confused about what they're supposed to be doing is simply, you know, showing us that there's not really another way than a national law.

事實上，人們對自己應該做什麼感到困惑，這只是，你知道，向我們表明，除了國家法律之外，並沒有別的辦法。

But is there is there a question that if people do not feel financially secure, If people do not feel that they can actually stay at home and feed their family, they'll do anything to make sure that they can.

但是有沒有一個問題，如果人們沒有經濟上的安全感，如果人們不覺得自己可以真正地呆在家裡養家餬口，他們會不惜一切代價來確保自己可以。

Absolutely.

絕對的

And that's why we have to think about this, not purely from the epidemiological case days.

而這也是為什麼我們要思考這個問題，而不是單純的從流行病學的病例日。

If we've also got to look at making sure there are economic stimulus, package is in hand, making sure people have got the resources in place to be able to lock down both of individuals or businesses on, We have to take a much more holistic view off what the impact off a lock down will be.

如果我們還得看看是否有經濟刺激計劃，一攬子計劃在手，確保人們有足夠的資源來鎖定個人或企業，我們必須更全面地看待鎖定的影響。

It will be regressive.

它將是倒退的。

They always are locked down.

他們總是被鎖定。

We've seen across the world had significant social and economic costs.

我們在世界各地都看到了巨大的社會和經濟成本。

But we have to weigh that up against the reality off.

但我們要權衡一下，現實關。

You know, lots and lots more people dying, which is something we can't live with.

你知道，很多很多的人死亡，這是我們不能忍受的。

Absolutely.

絕對的

And that's the third part of the package.

這就是第三部分的包裝。

So you have the circuit breaker or the firebreak you have.

所以，你有斷路器或者你有的斷火器。

You buy time to give you a decent test, trace and isolate system on.

你爭取時間給你一個像樣的測試，跟蹤和隔離系統上。

You have good, adequate financial support for people so that they can actually obey the rules on that's you know, those three things are critical.

你有良好的，足夠的財政支持的人，這樣他們就可以真正遵守規則上的，你知道，這三件事情是至關重要的。

Thank you both very much indeed.

真的非常感謝兩位。