My first guest tonight is a neurosurgeon, a podcast host and the chief medical correspondent for CNN.

我今晚的第一位嘉賓是一位神經外科醫生，是播客主持人，也是CNN的首席醫學記者。

Please welcome back to a late show, Dr Sanjay Gupta.

請歡迎回到晚間節目，桑傑-古普塔博士。

Sanjay, Thanks for being here.

Sanjay, 謝謝你能來這裡

Thanks, Stephen.

謝謝，斯蒂芬。

Thanks so much for having me great to be here.

謝謝你請我來這裡，我很高興。

You and I are already is experiencing the weirdness of this interaction for the people at home who do not know you were my last guest on the last night that we were actually in the Ed Sullivan Theater.

你和我已經是正在體驗這種互動的詭異，對於家裡的人來說，他們不知道你是我最後的客人，在最後一個晚上，我們實際上是在艾德沙利文劇院。

What do you remember of that evening?

你還記得那天晚上的事情嗎？

Some seven months ago?

大約七個月前？

You know, it felt it felt very surreal.

你知道嗎，這感覺... ...感覺很不真實。

I mean, obviously, we're in this empty theater, but we're also talking about sort of this impending storm, something that you could expect to have happened.

我的意思是，很明顯，我們是在這個空蕩蕩的劇院裡，但我們也在談論這種即將到來的風暴，你可以預期會發生的事情。

But it hasn't really hit yet, right?

但還沒有真正打響吧？

And so I remember trying to really modulate my my tone.

所以我記得我嘗試著真正的調節我的音調。

I mean, you know, e think this is really serious.

我的意思是，你知道，我認為這是非常嚴重的。

This is something we have to worry about.

這是我們不得不擔心的事情。

But, you know, it's not here yet.

但是，你知道，它還沒有來。

So how do I convey that to Steve?

那我該如何向史蒂夫轉達呢？

And that's what I was sort of thinking, you know, That was and again, that was seven months ago feels like seven years ago, and then a lot obviously has happened since then.

這就是我當時的想法，你知道的，那是... ...那是七個月前，感覺就像七年前，然後很多事情顯然已經發生了。

And the bad models of the time We're 60,000 by May, maybe 150,000 or 125,000 by August.

而當時的不良車型 我們5月份是6萬，8月份可能是15萬或12.5萬。

How did those models work out like?

這些模型的效果是怎樣的？

Give us some perspective of how bad?

給我們一些觀點，有多糟糕？

Uh, people like you who?

呃，像你這樣的人是誰？

Medical professionals who kept your eye on the sort of thing and what actually played out Well, what what we're seeing here in these models, you know, there's a joke within.

醫學專家誰保持你的眼睛的排序的事情和實際發揮了什麼 好了，我們在這裡看到的這些模型，你知道，有一個笑話內。

Among statisticians, they say all models are wrong, some are useful and and that's how I would look at these models as well.

在統計學家中，他們說所有的模型都是錯誤的，有些模型是有用的，我也會這樣看這些模型。

I think what a lot of people were looking at was let's project how things were going here.

我想很多人看的是讓我們推算一下這裡的情況如何。

But also, let's look at a previous pandemic, the 1918 flu pandemic and sort of see, how was that behaving during the same time?

但是，也讓我們看看之前的一次大流行，1918年的流感大流行，算是看看，在同一時間內的表現如何？

And it sort of started around the same time a year 1918 is this started in 2000 and 20 and within the first seven months or so of that pandemic 100 years ago, 75,000 people have died.

而它算是在同一時間開始的1918年是這在2000年和20年開始的，在前七個月左右的時間裡，100年前的那場大流行，75000人已經死亡。

The population of the country was a third of what it is multiplied 75 times three, 225,000.

全國人口是現在的三分之一乘以75乘以3，22.5萬。

Which is exactly roughly how many people had died in this pandemic at this time.

這也正是當時在這場大流行中死了多少人的大概情況。

So it was tracking almost exactly with that 1918 flu pandemic.

所以它與1918年那場流感大流行的追蹤幾乎一模一樣。

I mean, we have hospitals, we have issues, we have therapeutics.

我的意思是，我們有醫院，我們有問題，我們有治療學。

We have all these advanced technologies, and we're basically behaving exactly the same 100 years ago.

我們擁有這些先進的技術，而我們的行為基本上和100年前完全一樣。

Okay, well, that that that gets to my next question, Which is where are we now?

好了，好了，這，這得到我的下一個問題， 這是我們現在在哪裡？

Both in the United States and globally.

無論是在美國還是全球。

Like, how is the United States?

比如，美國怎麼樣？

Um, comparing right now to other countries that are dealing with coronavirus?

嗯，現在和其他國家處理冠狀病毒的情況相比？

It certainly feels like we're kind of at the bottom of the rung in terms of our, um, mitigation off the spread of the coronavirus.

當然，感覺上我們在緩解冠狀病毒的傳播方面是處於最底層的。

Is that Is that the truth?

那是... ...那是事實嗎？

Are we actually shank in this right now?

我們現在真的是在這柄嗎？

I think I think sadly we are.

我想我覺得很遺憾我們是。

I mean, we've learned so much about this virus.

我的意思是，我們已經瞭解了這麼多關於這個病毒。

We know what it does to the body.

我們知道它對身體有什麼影響。

We know how to greatly reduce the spread.

我們知道如何大大減少傳播。

And that's sort of where the story stopped in the United States because then we didn't implement those things.

而這也算是故事在美國停止的地方，因為後來我們沒有實施這些事情。

And so, you know, there was this fascinating study came out of Colombia, basically said, Okay, let's look at other countries around the world.

所以，你知道，有這個迷人的 研究出來的哥倫比亞， 基本上說，好吧，讓我們看看 其他國家在世界各地。

And let's say if we had done the same things in this country that had happened in that country, where would we be?

讓我們說，如果我們在這個國家做了同樣的事情，發生在那個國家，我們會在哪裡？

So take South Korea.

所以以韓國為例。

South Korea is important because the first patient was diagnosed in South Korea on the same day first patient was diagnosed United States.

韓國是重要的，因為第一個病人在韓國被診斷出的同一天，第一個病人被診斷出美國。

So it's a good sort of starting point.

所以這是一種很好的出發點。

If we had done in the United States what they did in South Korea, Stephen 2700 and 99 people they estimate on Lee would have died.

如果我們在美國做了他們在南朝鮮所做的事情，斯蒂芬2700和99人，他們估計李會死。

2700 versus 225,000 Japan.

2700人，日本為225000人。

We have done what Japan had done.

我們做了日本曾經做過的事情。

4300 and 15 people.

4300人和15人。

They model Australia 11,619.

他們模型澳洲11,619。

I could keep going.

我可以繼續說下去。

The point is that there were so many countries around the world they didn't have a vaccine.

關鍵是世界上有很多國家都沒有疫苗。

They didn't have some magical therapeutic.

他們並沒有什麼神奇的治療方法。

They had nothing we didn't have and had we done what they did, which was just basically these public health practices.

他們沒有我們沒有的東西，如果我們做了他們所做的事情，這只是基本上這些公共衛生實踐。

We'd be in a much, much different position right now, Mark Meadows this weekend said.

馬克-梅多斯本週末表示，我們現在的處境會大不相同。

We're not going to control the pandemic yet.

我們現在還不能控制疫情。

At the same time, I believe, is it.

同時，我相信，是它。

Today?

今天？

The Trump administration put out a list of the president's accomplishments, and one of the accomplishments that they list for the president is stopping the coronavirus pandemic.

特朗普政府公佈了一份總統的成就清單，他們為總統列出的成就之一就是阻止冠狀病毒的流行。

Do do those, can you?

做這些，你會嗎？

Your reaction is a medical professional to the idea that the president has stopped the coronavirus pandemic.

你的反應是一個醫學專家，認為總統已經阻止了冠狀病毒的流行。

That's in the mission accomplished box, huh?

那是在任務完成的盒子裡，嗯？

Yes, I suppose so.

是的，我想是的。

70,000 people infected half a million people infected this past week.

7萬人感染50萬人感染過去一週。

Hospitals are overrun.

醫院超負荷運轉。

I mean, some of these air people that I talked to on a regular basis there in their communities, looking at buildings right now going, Could that be a hospital?

我的意思是，一些這些空氣的人，我跟定期基礎上有在他們的社區， 看著建築物，現在去， 難道這是一個醫院？

Could that be a hospital?

難道是醫院？

I mean, you just heard the projections.

我的意思是，你剛剛聽到的預測。

152 100,000 more people may die, you know, within the next few months, so we're nowhere near that.

152 100,000人可能會死， 你知道，在未來幾個月內， 所以我們遠遠沒有接近這一點。

The thing that's frustrating, I think Stephen, is that there's been the sense that, you know, we surrender.

我想，斯蒂芬，最令人沮喪的是，有一種感覺，你知道，我們投降了。

You know, this whole waving the white flag and I think it z even worse than that.

你知道，這整個揮舞白旗，我認為它Z甚至比這更糟。

In the sense that we didn't even just surrender.

在某種意義上，我們甚至不只是投降。

We kind of open the door for the virus and said, Come on in and it was this herd immunity sort of idea.

我們算是給病毒打開了一扇門，說，進來吧，就是這種群體免疫的那種想法。

Just let people get infected, and that seems to have really been the plan from the beginning.

只是讓人感染，這似乎真的是一開始就有的計劃。

As much as you know, Fauci came out and said that he advised the president very early on.

就像你知道的那樣，Fauci出來說，他很早就向總統提出了建議。

When the president said, Just let it wash over the country, what happens if we do that?

當總統說，就讓它沖刷全國吧，如果我們這樣做會怎麼樣？

Fauci said.

福西說。

You'd have millions of dead people.

你會有幾百萬的死人。

That's why you can't do that.

這就是為什麼你不能這樣做。

But it seems that that really, is the plan.

但看來，這真的是計劃中的事。

E mean.

E是指。

It's certainly what the policies have led to in this country.

這當然是這個國家的政策所導致的。

We don't have a national strategy.

我們沒有一個國家戰略。

We're still not doing basic public health measures.

我們還是沒有做好基本的公共衛生措施。

There's probably five times as many people out there that have been infected that even know it because of the lack of testing.

有可能有五倍的人，已經被感染，甚至知道它，因為缺乏測試。

So it certainly seems like it.

所以看起來肯定是這樣的。

But you know, what was interesting is I started talking to people over the last few months.

但你知道，有趣的是，我開始與人交談 在過去的幾個月。

Steven.

史蒂芬

It's this idea of American exceptionalism in the sense that we're going to have the home run hit with the vaccine.

就是這種美國特殊主義的想法，在某種意義上，我們要用疫苗打出全壘打。

We're putting all of our eggs in that basket.

我們把所有的雞蛋都放在那個籃子裡。

Where are we with that?

我們的情況如何？

What we know because he keeps dangling like a carrot.

我們知道什麼，因為他一直像個胡蘿蔔一樣吊著。

It's right.

這是正確的。

He does, and it's not going to be.

他是這樣做的，而且不會。

You know, there may be an emergency use authorization for it by the end of the year.

你知道，年底前可能會有一個緊急使用授權。

Maybe it starts getting distributed by middle of next year on.

也許到明年年中就開始分發上。

Even then, it may require two shots.

即便如此，也可能需要打兩針。

I mean, if we're talking about vaccinating the world, Stephen, this will be one of the largest vaccination projects we've ever seen.

我的意思是，如果我們談論的是給世界接種疫苗，斯蒂芬，這將是我們所見過的最大的疫苗接種項目之一。

You know, the distribution alone and these things need to be stored in a very certain temperature.

你知道的，單單是配送這些東西就需要存放在一個非常確定的溫度下。

So it's it's gonna be a huge undertaking, and it is happening.

所以這... ...這將是一項巨大的工程，而且它正在發生。

I mean, it is worth celebrating how fast the medical innovation has occurred here.

我的意思是，這裡的醫療創新速度之快，值得慶賀。

I mean, we don't even know what this disease was a year ago.

我是說，我們甚至不知道一年前這種病是什麼。

We may have a vaccine by the end of the year, but it's not gonna flip a switch.

我們可能會在年底前研製出一種疫苗，但它不會打開一個開關。

And I think that that's that's the critical point is that, you know, we we thought this would be the home run, and it will be very helpful.

我認為，這是... ...這是關鍵點，你知道，我們... ...我們認為這將是本壘打， 這將是非常有益的。

But in the meantime, we didn't do all the other things that would have made a huge difference.

但與此同時，我們並沒有做其他所有會帶來巨大改變的事情。

It's kinda like that.

是有點像。

Have you ever seen the, uh, Purple pill commercial for Prilosec?

你見過Pricosec的紫色藥片廣告嗎？

It's basically like eat whatever you want and then just take this purple pill right.

基本上就是想吃什麼就吃什麼，然後就吃這個紫色的藥丸是吧。

That is a metaphor for how the United States dealt with this coronavirus pandemic.

這是對美國如何處理這次冠狀病毒大流行的一個比喻。

Do whatever we want.

我們想做什麼就做什麼。

And then we got the purple pill, which was the vaccine.

然後我們得到了紫色藥丸，這是疫苗。

But it's not here, and it's not gonna do what people think it's going to dio.

但它不在這裡，它也不會像人們認為的那樣去做dio。

We have to take a quick break, but stick around, we're right back with Mawr Dr Sanjay Gupta.

我們要稍作休息，但請不要走開，我們馬上回來，由桑傑・古普塔博士為您介紹。